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raviunnam

raviunnam
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  • LinkedIn: Too Expensive For A Staffing Company [View article]
    I would say LNKD will be out of business in a few years. FB will eat into it. Whether FB will maintain the high valuations is another debate.
    Sooner or later the bubble will burst. No one can time the market.It will happen when it happens.
    Oct 3, 2012. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: How To Play The iPhone Effect [View article]
    Lets understand that FB is an awesome company with limitless potential.
    The reason it sunk like a rock post ipo is because of the excess supply.
    Every buy order on the book was filled to the fullest extent.
    The investors simply dumped the excess stock.
    The same thing will be repeating in Oct, Nov and Dec.
    The true cost of building and running FB has to include the billions of
    shares ( due to successive rounds of dilutions and funding ) outstanding.
    When these shares hit the trading circuit, FB price will get depressed to
    far below FAIR value. At that point with billions of shares trading in a
    few months, there will be plenty of supply than the buyers can absorb.
    The only hope for FB is to get investment bankers pickup bulk of the shares. ...
    wait ... but they did treat the investment bankers poorly last round... there
    was nothing left for anyone on the table.
    And please mark Sherly Sandbergs comments post IPO regarding pricing of FB
    shares... according to her, they wanted to make sure the traders had nothing
    left on the table for a short term profit. ( first day pop ) .
    Now FB can come out with all the cool new features with choreographed news
    releases, but investors or traders will trade to make a profit.. If you got
    burned badly with FB once , you might be shy trying to buy it... maybe the
    only way to make some money in this is to buy puts or short the stock.
    That applies for insiders too. They can offload their shares now and buy back
    in 2013 for half the money and retire on the gains.
    Well isnt that what Mr. Z suggested... DOUBLE UP... works well for insiders to
    sell into the rally.... after a few months there will be billions of more
    shares saturating the supply.
    Anyway, i do anticipate a huge supply TSUNAMI.
    Oct 3, 2012. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    Lets understand that FB is an awesome company with limitless potential.
    The reason it sunk like a rock post ipo is because of the excess supply. Every buy order on the book was filled to the fullest extent.
    The investors simply dumped the excess stock.
    The same thing will be repeating in Oct, Nov and Dec.
    The true cost of building and running FB has to include the billions of shares ( due to successive rounds of dilutions and funding ) outstanding.
    When these shares hit the trading circuit, FB price will get depressed to far below FAIR value. At that point with billions of shares trading in a few months, there will be plenty of supply than the buyers can absorb.
    The only hope for FB is to get investment bankers pickup bulk of the shares. ... wait ... but they did treat the investment bankers poorly last round... there was nothing left for anyone on the table.
    And please mark Sherly Sandbergs comments post IPO regarding pricing of FB shares... according to her, they wanted to make sure the traders had nothing left on the table for a short term profit. ( first day pop ) .
    Now FB can come out with all the cool new features with choreographed news releases, but investors or traders will trade to make a profit.. If you got burned badly with FB once , you might be shy trying to buy it... maybe the only way to make some money in this is to buy puts or short the stock.
    That applies for insiders too. They can offload their shares now and buy back in 2013 for half the money and retire on the gains.
    Well isnt that what Mr. Z suggested... DOUBLE UP... works well for insiders to sell into the rally.... after a few months there will be billions of more shares saturating the supply.
    Oct 3, 2012. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB +1.5%) monetization data chief Brent Smallwood tries to counter criticism of the company's low ad click-through rates by arguing ad clicks give an inaccurate view of a campaign's effectiveness. While relevant for e-commerce firms trying to make immediate sales, ad clicks don't matter as much to brands trying to drive offline sales, Smallwood argues. Facebook is counting on its partnership with Datalogix to provide marketers with data about offline conversions. (COO remarks[View news story]
    Instead of confusing investors that numbers dont matter , click through's don't matter, only MAU , DAU etc etc matter the management should come out with some numbers .
    If i were an insider with lockups expiring in oct, nov or dec and if i were very bullish on the stock, i would sell into his rally in oct, nov and dec and pickup for a fraction of the stock in May 2013 . With the money saved in the process, i would plan retirement.
    Oct 1, 2012. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Facebook Make A Dent In The Online Shopping Space? [View article]
    If i were an insider with long term faith in the company, i would sell into this rally in oct, nov, dec and buy back in 2013 for a fraction . the rest i would retire on.
    Oct 1, 2012. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB +2.2%) is rallying today even though Oppenheimer lowered its target to $27 from $41, citing mobile concerns. A CNBC appearance by COO Sheryl Sandberg could be helping. Sandberg touted the effectiveness of Facebook's Promoted Posts product, as well as studies indicating healthy ROIs for ad campaigns. Regarding the company's display ad network plans, she claimed Facebook's ability to target narrow demographic groups would help it stand out. [View news story]
    If i were an insider, i would sell into this rally and buy back for a fraction in May 2013 . The rest ... i will spend on retirement.
    Oct 1, 2012. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imagine No Ads On Facebook - It's Easy If You Try [View article]
    If i were an insider i would sell into this rally and buy in May 2013
    Oct 1, 2012. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB +2.2%) is rallying today even though Oppenheimer lowered its target to $27 from $41, citing mobile concerns. A CNBC appearance by COO Sheryl Sandberg could be helping. Sandberg touted the effectiveness of Facebook's Promoted Posts product, as well as studies indicating healthy ROIs for ad campaigns. Regarding the company's display ad network plans, she claimed Facebook's ability to target narrow demographic groups would help it stand out. [View news story]
    If i were an insider with a lot of shares and have faith in the long term prospects of FB, i would sell into the rally and buy back for a fraction of the proceeds and retire with the rest.
    We can why all the BIGWIGS try talking us into the HUGE POTENTIAL for FB. We know that FB has huge potential . That is the reason a few of us paid $44 in pre-market bubble for the shares.
    Now is the time for FB to prove with solid numbers and not just talk of future potential before offloading a few more billion shares.
    Oct 1, 2012. 02:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    If i was a FB insider with shares unlocking in Oct, Nov and Dec,
    and if i was a true believer in the company, this is what i would do...

    Sell now and pickup in May 2013. You can pickup the same number of shares ( there will be billions in the float ) for a fraction of what you get by selling now. The rest is your retirement money.


    Let us assume the following :

    Tomorrow morning we wake up to find FB the market leader in
    1) Search
    2) Ecommerce
    3) Dating
    4) Jobs
    etc etc
    Wait but can that happen overnight ??? Hasn't FB taken over 10 yrs to mature as a leader in Social space ? Hasn't it taken Amazon almost a decade to get to where it got ?
    I do see FB eating over and decimating linkedin very soon.
    With the hundreds of millions of shares being unlocked soon and many more getting ready to be released at regular intervals until the foreseeable future I foresee a situation where this stock will be the darling of high frequency traders along Bank of America shares completely decimating the individual investors.
    FB has enormous potential. Do we pay for enormous potential that they might unlock 100 Years later ??? that is ridiculous.
    Sep 30, 2012. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: How To Play The iPhone Effect [View article]
    Let us assume the following :

    Tomorrow morning we wake up to find FB the market leader in
    1) Search
    2) Ecommerce
    3) Dating
    4) Jobs
    etc etc
    Wait but can that happen overnight ??? Hasn't FB taken over 10 yrs to mature as a leader in Social space ? Hasn't it taken Amazon almost a decade to get to where it got ?
    I do see FB eating over and decimating linkedin very soon.
    With the hundreds of millions of shares being unlocked soon and many more getting ready to be released at regular intervals until the foreseeable future I foresee a situation where this stock will be the darling of high frequency traders along Bank of America shares completely decimating the individual investors.
    FB has enormous potential. Do we pay for enormous potential that they might unlock 100 Years later ??? that is ridiculous.
    Sep 30, 2012. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Mark Zuckerberg Duped The Market [View article]
    FB has enormous potential.
    Dating , search , e-commerce , gifting, jobs, coupons / deals etc etc.
    It will take them at least 4-5 years to mature, stifle competition from google, amazon, linkedin, groupon, and be successful in some of the initiatives.
    The challenge for FB team would be to introduce all these in a seamless way without alienating current users .
    We go there to hang out ... just imagine you at a bar hanging out with buddies and someone pops up to you every few mins trying to sell you a car , home , McDonalds, Burger King etc etc ...
    Long term they have the potential to be winners.
    Short term catalysts ( 2-3 years ) will force them to go lower and lower .
    If you are buying now, be patient for atleast 5 - 6 years to break even. or buy in 5-6 years or earlier if it breaks the pre-ipo levels of $44 / share that it traded at.
    Sep 29, 2012. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    The fact is FB is a volatile stock trading sideways for a long time.
    You can lose a lot of trading capital if you dont have tight money management stops.
    The potential is enormous. Short term catalysts are unfavorable.
    Just keep in mind that Mr. Z said he will not sell for atleast a year ( 2013 Sep ) . we will continue to see the billions of FB shares constantly on the supply side.
    This will be the darling of High Frequency traders like BofA is right now.
    It will trade at 5 - 8 range for a few years before either shooting up to stellar levels ( if it manages to stifle google, amazon and other services ) or dying off ( if they cant be everything that everyone wants ) .
    Sep 29, 2012. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: How To Play The iPhone Effect [View article]
    Good deals in FB stock will only happen after May 2013 if Mr. Z dosent start offloading his shares in Sep - Oct 2013.
    The big problem is the billions and billions of shares whose face value is less than a penny hitting the market to cash out.
    Sep 29, 2012. 06:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    Choreographed News releases apart, we need to see consistent growth in numbers minus creative accounting.
    FB pretty much owns all our privacy once we put something on it. We have no rights whatsoever.
    I wouldnt be comfortable with having my credit card info also on FB and Mr. Z owning our lives to the fullest extent possible.
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook The Ultimate Short? [View article]
    My major concern using FB for any financial transactions is simple... Mr. Z owns our data. We pretty much at his mercy once we give him some info in FB. And i am concerned how he will use the data.
    Sep 28, 2012. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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