Rumpole

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    • Sun Nov 2nd 00:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale
      Sorry, ignore my last comment. Thanks to Managing Editor for the clarification!
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    • Sun Nov 2nd 00:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale
      Can selling put options on gold futures also work as a way of buying gold at a discount? If so, how does the delivery system work? Would it be the same as for futures?
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    • Fri Oct 31st 23:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Using Futures to Buy Metals Wholesale
      How do options on gold futures fit into this calculus? Does the same delivery and physical possession apply here?
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    • Fri Oct 31st 21:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nine Quality Stocks for a Market Bottom
      In terms of the adjusted monetary base, the U.S. Treasury / Fed has a lot more money to print to fill the debt vortex created over the last number of years. So the cited 38% growth rate even when compared with the 30s era 28% rate might not be so indicative of eventual market elevation.
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    • Fri Oct 31st 21:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Volatility Watch: Waning Over the Next Few Months
      The prediction makes some sense to me, but I'm a relative newby. It just doesn't seem credible to believe that an 80+ VIX reading is sustainable. Then again, like the adage that says that markets can remain irrational longer than I as an investor can remain solvent, I imagine VIX readings can remain elevated longer than we may think despite historical comparisons.
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    • Sun Oct 19th 16:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?
      Personally, I found Brett's article rather useful. Historically it simply asserts that if this recession/downturn is something comparable to the 1930s, then we could expect something like an S&P level of 500 or possibly less. So it begs the question of whether it is in fact such a recession/downturn. My own view is that the markets are in a long-term downturn, long-term being years. So playing put options either by buying puts or establishing put option spreads is the approach I think is prudent, e.g., following the trend. There will of course be playable rallies on the up-side favourable to call options and call option spreads. But in the end a level such as that suggested by Brett is credible.
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    • Sun Oct 19th 15:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      EU Eases Mark-to-Market Rules; What's the U.S. Waiting For?
      "...M-T-M, recall, requires companies to mark their financial assets to market each quarter, and run the price changes through their
      P&L. For assets that trade on liquid markets, that makes sense. But if the asset is illiquid, or trades in a market that occasionally (like now) freezes up, “market” prices can often be totally unrelated to the asset’s actual intrinsic value. In cases like that, all MTM accounting does is blow up a company’s balance sheet for no reason."
      For no reason?? Perhaps the part of the cycle we're now in is saying something about how you're calculating intrinsic value? You're assuming that your version of "intrinsic value" is somehow stable and enduring. But I think that assumption has got to be questioned now that the credit/debt bubble has been popped and the excess cash being pumped into the system is being sucked down the drain of debt and "intrinsic value" is being sucked down that same drain.

      In effect, what you're saying is that when times get tough, let's re-write the rules so that we can fudge the books. Who exactly does that help??!!
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    • Sun Oct 19th 14:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Gold Ready to Fly?
      Perhaps not having revolutions in North America hasn't served us well at all. Even a credible possibility or probability of a tax revolt as a form of revolution might serve to inspire legislators to enact the fundamental principles that you suggest, Bill. Without such a credible possibility or probability, We, the People, act like nothing more than WE, the Sheep, in my view.
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    • Sat Oct 18th 14:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      AIG: How It Spent Your Tax Money
      From my reading, it looked like JPM was the only bank doing major league buying at the LEH CDS auction. But what I really want to know is who else other than AIG did the underwriting of LEH CDSs; it's these companies who could go bust on Tuesday. Or should I guess that it might have been GS and MS based on the where the first AIG bailout payments ended up??
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    • Fri Oct 17th 16:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Things For Investors to Consider and Four Policy Decisions Worth Noting
      Jeff, your philosophical points are well taken. But what is a method that correctly prices mortgage securities?? I'm interested to know your version of what is "correct" in this context because the implication is that the free market and current mark to market methods are not.
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    • Thu Oct 16th 16:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Switzerland Strengthens Its Banks; Short Interest Remains Low
      veni..., is Jessica suggesting that UBS should survive? To me, she's just providing some factual information.
      While I share the same sentiment as veni... and mr.g, what I'd like to know is whether veni... and mr.g have acted consistent with their vitriolic words. In other words, have you guys taken out put options, long-dated or otherwise, so you can profit from either or both of UBS or CS demise? Transparency is key in a free market after all (lol)!
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    • Thu Oct 16th 15:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mark-to-Market Accounting Makes Speculators of Us All - And That's Bad
      Vernon, I'll admit from the outset that I'm no accountant. But doesn't your article assume that the market is always rational? The market isn't made up exclusively by professional value investors like yourself for whom intrinsic value holds sway. Besides, intrinsic value as a concept has its own set of assumptions which in the current state of things don't seem to be valid to many market participants. Perhaps accounting rules need to show both values, e.g., the mark to market value and the intrinsic value. Of course, companies would have to explain disparities between these items related to each asset and liability.
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    • Tue Oct 14th 15:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Of Guarantees and Printing Presses
      The extension to five years for the Euro guarantee puzzles me. It's obviously not short-term funding like the overnight markets they have in mind. Could it be all that debt coming due in the next five years? Massively indebted governments guaranteeing massive bank debts... hmmm... there's something rotten in Denmark ... I smell a rather incestuous relationship and it's begetting more an dmore idiots.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 15:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Financial System is Finished

      Yes, I'd like it to be finished. But the bankers are going to draw the finish out ever so painfully I'm afraid. Whether they can or not might depend on the reaction to the upcoming LEH CDS settlement as well as the upcoming WAMU CDS auction and settlement. These will happen in the next two to three weeks. So get ready for a turbulent ride and even a crash below what we've already seen. But like I said, the bankers and the governments who are beholden to them will do their damnedness so that they don't crash alon side us. Hmmm...., what's that claptrap in the U.S.Constitution's preamble, something like "....government by, for and of the people...". Utter BS no matter what country one applies it to.
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    • Sat Oct 11th 14:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Guarantee Plan
      Felix, how can these countries, which are themselves so deeply in debt, guarantee the debt of their respective banking sectors? And does this guarantee mean, for example, that the UK will help cover French bank debt if for some reason the French government cannot? Also, don't you think if this guarantee is made, the banks will find a way to off-load their debt on to the governments? This doesn't seem like a very good proposition for the taxpayers of the respective countries. yes, it's rather apparent I'm rather cynical, but I think with some reason.
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