Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- eHealth, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- MIPS Technologies, Inc. F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Alkermes, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Akorn, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- The Advisory Board Company F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Thomas Weisel Partners Group, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- The9 Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
-
Editors' Picks
-
Most Popular
- General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?
- Food: Against Self-Sufficiency
- The Fed: Now the World's Largest Private Bank
- Key to the Global Equity Market: Trend and Cycle Analysis of U.S. Retail
- Can a Global Economy Be Managed One Nation at a Time?
- Global Markets Week in Review: Turbulent Times
- Full list of Editors' Picks »
- Jim Rogers on China »
- Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12 »
- Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor? »
- Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing »
- UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point? »
- The Biggest Problem Detroit's Big Three Face »
- 11 Stocks Selling Below Cash »
- Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001 »
- The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit »
- Iceland: What It's Like to Live in a World Without Money »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Tony Soprano
137 Comments
Bear Stearns: 'Remain Calm! All Is Well!'
IT’S NOW THE FED AGAINST THE SHORTS. THE FED WILL WIN.
THE FED WILL KEEP THE ISLAND AFLOAT.
THIS IS CAPITULATION!!!
DON'T BUY INTO ALL THAT NEGATIVE THOUGHT ABOVE!
CPI: 2008 vs. 1980
Watching the Fed as Records Continue to Be Broken
Forget all this short, and call, and put stuff. You are young and I am old and I say this with great conviction: buy long now. It’s a great, great time to do it. If the market dips again you should buy long again and stay long a long time. YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT.
Let the bulk of your money work for you like a locomotive. It takes a good while for a long train to stop and the same is true when starting. The train is powerful and will pull you a long way. When it stops again or slows down again and it will, you will still be further along in your journey.
I am not saying that you can't make money in what you are doing but you are working ten times harder than what is necessary. You yourself pointed out how you missed some profits with Bear. Its difficult to short. If you really must do it keep just a small portion of your funds exposed and let the locomotive really do the very big and very hard work for you.
______________________...
A must read it was published today:
"Bear Stearns Bailout Was `Finger in the Dike,' Historians Say
By Elliot Blair Smith" Bloomberg.com
It points out how every single Fed or Treasury intervention has worked going back to 1914. We have one hell of a brilliant system. Never, ever, sell America short.
Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
"Bear Stearns Bailout Was `Finger in the Dike,' Historians Say
By Elliot Blair Smith" Bloomberg.com
It points out how every single Fed or Treasury intervention has worked going back to 1914. We have one hell of a brilliant system. Never, ever, sell America short.
Buying Bear's HQ
"Bear Stearns Bailout Was `Finger in the Dike,' Historians Say
By Elliot Blair Smith" Bloomberg.com
It points out how every single Fed or Treasury intervention has worked going back to 1914. We have one hell of a brilliant system. Never, ever, sell America short.
CPI: 2008 vs. 1980
"Bear Stearns Bailout Was `Finger in the Dike,' Historians Say
By Elliot Blair Smith" Bloomberg.com
It points out how every single Fed or Treasury intervention has worked going back to 1914. We have one hell of a brilliant system. Never, ever, sell America short.
CPI: 2008 vs. 1980
I remember in the early 60's to 68, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of Kennedy, Vietnam, the murder of Dr King and Bobby Kennedy. Then came the riots across our nation.
This was a very dark and gloomy time and when I first started buying STOCKS!!!
Warren Buffett says that he made most of his money in the 1973-74 period. Another very ugly period. Its time to start buying long. Buy America!
Buying Bear's HQ
A least if Barry did buy the building he would be putting American dollars back to work in the United States.
It's time to buy America!!!
Why the U.S Dollar Won't Die
It's normal for the currency of a country that is about to go into a recession to decline in value.
Jim Roger's is paranoid over the decline of the dollar. He is one of the premiere critics of the Fed. Why is so critical to the point of paranoia?
Jim has a large position in the yuan. The falling dollar makes Chinese goods more expensive. Jim is afraid the China bubble will burst. There is trouble in Tibet. Athletes are starting to boycott the Olympic games because of pollution. Inflation in China is more than twice that of the US. The US consumer has become suspicious of what China is putting into there products. China has yet to let their currency trade freely in the markets. This is deplorable and we are so critical of our own Fed.
I believe the bubble in China will burst. The twenty year cycle in commodities will fail. This twenty year cycle is unsustainable because of inflation. Also, that was a different time and a different age. Because there are more people does not mean that it will be sustainable for twenty years. Many more people demanding goods will speed the cycle. Making the price of costly goods unsustainable. Other developing countries will feel the affects as well. Commodities will fall. The dollar will rise and Jim Rogers will lose money.
The Fed will still have to fight the fight with inflation. But with relief in price of commodities it will be easier than what the doom sayers are predicting.
Did the Fed's Move Prevent a Stock Market Panic?
YES -- WHY DIDN'T THE S&P BREAK THROUGH 1270?
NEVER, EVER, UNDER ESTIMATE AMERICA.
IF WANT PROOF, JUST READ SOME OF OUR HISTORY.
Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funding From NY Fed, JP Morgan
I remember in the early 90's the dollar was depreciating against the Italian lira. That was really bad but no pun intended.
I remember in 73 - 74 American's were saying that their children would not fair as well as they had. It was a very tough time.
I remember in the early 60's to 68, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of Kennedy, Vietnam, the murder of Dr King, and Bobby Kennedy. Then came the riots across our nation. Our cities were burning. This was a very dark and gloomy time and that's when I first started buying STOCKS!!!
GOD BLESS AMERICA, AND ALL OF OUR LEADERS, AND ALL OF OUR PEOPLE AND ALL OF OUR ARMED FORCES.
Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
I remember the 1999-2000 tech bubble, the 9/11/2001 attack, Enron, Worldcom, and Katrina, and so do you.
I remember in the early 90's the dollar was depreciating against the Italian lira. That was really bad but no pun intended.
I remember in 73 - 74 American's were saying that their children would not fair as well as they had. It was a very tough time.
I remember in the early 60's to 68, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of Kennedy, Vietnam, the murder of Dr King and Bobby Kennedy. Then came the riots across our nation. This was a very dark and gloomy time and when I first started buying STOCKS!!!
GOD BLESS AMERICAN, AND ALL OF OUR LEADERS, AND ALL OF OUR PEOPLE AND ALL OF OUR ARMED FORCES.
The College-Educated Are Getting Richer
Sucess or Success
Are you trying to be funny. I'm laughing so much that I can hardly type. You did it twice. So, you cannot blame it on your typing.
Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funding From NY Fed, JP Morgan
"verge of a black swan event - meaning, and major once in a lifetime terrible financial problem that will have a big tail
I LOVE THIS PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT -- ITS TIME TO START BUYING. PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT = PNS – HOWEVER, I DO NOT LOVE PAIN UNLESS SOME GOOD WILL COME OUT OF IT
“The only way out is creative destruction - the companies holding toxic debt must be destroyed.”
MORE ‘PNS’ AND I MUST SAY I REALLY LOVE THE WORD DESTRUCTION, ITS SO PAINFULLY BULLISH. ALSO, I’M BEGINNING TO SENSE A FEELING GLEE IN YOUR DIRE PREDICTIONS. THIS IS “PPNS”, PAINFULLY POWERFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT
“Other financial institutions will suffer the same, just like the mortgage lenders who closed their doors and sent their employees to the street.”
MORE “PNS”, YOUR PIECE IS BECOMING A LITTLE REDUNDANT BUT I’M GETTING THE POINT
“Meanwhile, low interest rates are putting upward pressure on inflation. Inflation is a problem that is difficult for the fed to contain, and results from tight monetary policy have a long lag time.”
THE SECOND SENTENCE IS A BIT CONFUSING TO ME AND IF YOU DON’T MIND I WILL REPHRASE IT FOR YOU: Inflation will be very serious and very difficult for the Fed to contain. When the Fed does start to fight inflation and tighten monetary policy it will take a great deal of time. Time that we may not be able to afford.
“You can debate this all you like, but there is only one reality, and it is bigger, and worse, than what I have described. There is hope at the end of the tunnel, but we are going to have to live through some tough times here. Perhaps you are lucky, and wealthy, and don't have to worry about it. I really hope so.”
THANKS FOR YOUR CONCERN – I APPRECIATE IT. I HOPE THE BEST FOR YOU AND OUR NATION AS WELL.
In my heart of hearts I feel and know that the Fed is doing the right thing. A serious recession would be very ugly and this is why the Fed will try every tool they have. If a string of banks go under and we dip into a very bad recession unemployment could rise to 10 percent or “God forbid” 20 percent.
This could bankrupt the NATION over time. Deflation can be much more destructive than inflation.
Inflation hawks and dollar hawks all say that the Fed is destroying the NATION. To me what the Fed is doing is the less of two evils. I’m not happy about it.
Jan Hatzius (gs) was asked on Bloomberg, Friday, about the crashing dollar. He said it was normal for the currency of a country to devalue when it’s going into a recession.
Below are two stories about our choices concerning this financial crisis. Basically, its about the two poison pills and which one should we take. They are both fictional. One simple and one complex and from another blog and blogger (NoFate) on this site.
First story:
"Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled.
Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday. from NoFate
Second Story:
The son does use a credit card but instead of spending it on himself he wants to lend out the money and become loan shark. His idea is to lend out as much money that he can. In the mean time people that he is lending out to all live on an island. The island depends on a dike system to keep the island from going underwater. The dikes take an enormous amount of power to run. The islanders are taxed a lot to keep the power going..
The loan business is slow starting and the son wants it to grow much faster. His rich daddy is still backing him up and thinks his son is remarkable. The son's new business plan offers loan owners interest in a new waterfront country club if they barrow more. They see it as a steal and it makes them feel rich so they barrow more. His new business plan is a success for many years. The new country club is well under construction. Most of the people on the island are happy and think they have it made. The son pockets a good deal of wealth but he always wants more and more.
As more time passes, the cost of the power to run the dikes starts to increase rapidly. Sadly some of the islanders become sick. The doctors on the island suspect the Avian virus. Some even die and others cannot work. Unemployment starts to rise dramatically and the power for the dikes continues to rise.
Not all of the islanders owe money to the son. Many are still wealthy and never liked what the son has done and they are very much concerned about the rising cost to power for the dikes. More time passes and construction cost for the country club increases as well. Construction on the project starts to slow down. Many on the island start to become angry.
Taxes receipts to pay for the power for the dikes starts to diminish. Some of the islanders want to raise taxes to pay for the power. The islanders that are sick are not paying taxes. A meeting is called. The meeting is a failure and the son goes into hiding. However, the islanders come up with another plan but still many on the island do not like the newer plan as well.
The newer plan requires the islanders to barrow more money but from the mainland. The wealthy on the island do not like this plan because it will require them to pay more taxes in the future. However, some of the middle class people on the island become restless and crime increases.
The islanders are at a serious crossroad. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many on the island say the island will sink completely underwater if new monies are not borrowed. Others do not agree and feel the island will be fine without the additional debt.
I will let your imagination do the rest.
Tony Soprano
Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
"verge of a black swan event - meaning, and major once in a lifetime terrible financial problem that will have a big tail
I LOVE THIS PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT -- ITS TIME TO START BUYING. PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT = PNS – HOWEVER, I DO NOT LOVE PAIN UNLESS SOME GOOD WILL COME OUT OF IT
“The only way out is creative destruction - the companies holding toxic debt must be destroyed.”
MORE ‘PNS’ AND I MUST SAY I REALLY LOVE THE WORD DESTRUCTION, ITS SO PAINFULLY BULLISH. ALSO, I’M BEGINNING TO SENSE A FEELING GLEE IN YOUR DIRE PREDICTIONS. THIS IS “PPNS”, PAINFULLY POWERFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT
“Other financial institutions will suffer the same, just like the mortgage lenders who closed their doors and sent their employees to the street.”
MORE “PNS”, YOUR PIECE IS BECOMING A LITTLE REDUNDANT BUT I’M GETTING THE POINT
“Meanwhile, low interest rates are putting upward pressure on inflation. Inflation is a problem that is difficult for the fed to contain, and results from tight monetary policy have a long lag time.”
THE SECOND SENTENCE IS A BIT CONFUSING TO ME AND IF YOU DON’T MIND I WILL REPHRASE IT FOR YOU: Inflation will be very serious and very difficult for the Fed to contain. When the Fed does start to fight inflation and tighten monetary policy it will take a great deal of time. Time that we may not be able to afford.
“You can debate this all you like, but there is only one reality, and it is bigger, and worse, than what I have described. There is hope at the end of the tunnel, but we are going to have to live through some tough times here. Perhaps you are lucky, and wealthy, and don't have to worry about it. I really hope so.”
THANKS FOR YOUR CONCERN – I APPRECIATE IT. I HOPE THE BEST FOR YOU AND OUR NATION AS WELL.
In my heart of hearts I feel and know that the Fed is doing the right thing. A serious recession would be very ugly and this is why the Fed will try every tool they have. If a string of banks go under and we dip into a very bad recession unemployment could rise to 10 percent or “God forbid” 20 percent.
This could bankrupt the NATION over time. Deflation can be much more destructive than inflation.
Inflation hawks and dollar hawks all say that the Fed is destroying the NATION. To me what the Fed is doing is the less of two evils. I’m not happy about it.
Jan Hatzius (gs) was asked on Bloomberg, Friday, about the crashing dollar. He said it was normal for the currency of a country to devalue when it’s going into a recession.
Below are two stories about our choices concerning this financial crisis. Basically, its about the two poison pills and which one should we take. They are both fictional. One simple and one complex and from another blog and blogger (NoFate) on this site.
First story:
"Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled.
Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday. from NoFate
Second Story:
The son does use a credit card but instead of spending it on himself he wants to lend out the money and become loan shark. His idea is to lend out as much money that he can. In the mean time people that he is lending out to all live on an island. The island depends on a dike system to keep the island from going underwater. The dikes take an enormous amount of power to run. The islanders are taxed a lot to keep the power going..
The loan business is slow starting and the son wants it to grow much faster. His rich daddy is still backing him up and thinks his son is remarkable. The son's new business plan offers loan owners interest in a new waterfront country club if they barrow more. They see it as a steal and it makes them feel rich so they barrow more. His new business plan is a success for many years. The new country club is well under construction. Most of the people on the island are happy and think they have it made. The son pockets a good deal of wealth but he always wants more and more.
As more time passes, the cost of the power to run the dikes starts to increase rapidly. Sadly some of the islanders become sick. The doctors on the island suspect the Avian virus. Some even die and others cannot work. Unemployment starts to rise dramatically and the power for the dikes continues to rise.
Not all of the islanders owe money to the son. Many are still wealthy and never liked what the son has done and they are very much concerned about the rising cost to power for the dikes. More time passes and construction cost for the country club increases as well. Construction on the project starts to slow down. Many on the island start to become angry.
Taxes receipts to pay for the power for the dikes starts to diminish. Some of the islanders want to raise taxes to pay for the power. The islanders that are sick are not paying taxes. A meeting is called. The meeting is a failure and the son goes into hiding. However, the islanders come up with another plan but still many on the island do not like the newer plan as well.
The newer plan requires the islanders to barrow more money but from the mainland. The wealthy on the island do not like this plan because it will require them to pay more taxes in the future. However, some of the middle class people on the island become restless and crime increases.
The islanders are at a serious crossroad. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many on the island say the island will sink completely underwater if new monies are not borrowed. Others do not agree and feel the island will be fine without the additional debt.
I will let your imagination do the rest.
Tony Soprano