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Tony Soprano
137 Comments
Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
BonVivant:
"But, that does not mean you have to shoot down the analysts who have (correctly it seems) predicted the current bearish trends."
Pozhaluista, (please) he said he was wrong for not being bearish enough. It's that simple. The author said in italics: "I've been way too optimistic." Or I could paraphrase his words: "I was not right enough." Hence the comparison to a Russian general pinning metal on his chest.
______________________...
Karl M.:
"People have to start being realistic, not just optimistic. Many fundamental changes are taking place on every level of our existence, particularly affecting soundness of our financial system in the U.S. Take the ongoing deception from our central bank as an example."
Da, Da, Da, (Yes, Yes, Yes) You bring up some very interesting issues. There are many gray lines that a leader like Bernanke cannot cross. Even if it means not quite telling the truth. You talk about being realistic. Before you can be realistic you have to make a judgment about the matter at hand. Judgment means trying to put the facts together and then coming up an opinion. The opinion can then be judged again, and again, by someone who sees it differently. This can go on for a long time. The markets behave this way all the time.
The other day you said: “I'm sure Barry's gonna have a field day with the latest CPI numbers. More lies and denial from the Fed.” Were you trying to be realistic with this statement? No! You made an assumption (judgment) that an issue was to become true and then Barry (a second judgment) would do so and so with it. Your judgment became clouded by your person feelings with the matter. How can you call for people to be realistic when in fact you cannot do it yourself?
______________________...
sammyg123:
“Tony Soprano - put your portfolio out for all to see and let's see how you are doing? Here's mine:”
Nyet! A dare, I say. Shall we arrange a duel?
No seriously, I am glad you are doing well and I hope the best for you.
You said as well: “When Barry or other smart and prescient analysts, such as Doug Kass or Enzio Von Pfeil get bullish, I suppose you might want to agree with them. They obviously know better than the both of us. The tape doesn't lie, Soprano. Get with it.”
I heard Doug the other night and to me he made an interesting comment in that it would not be easy to be either short or long. Also, Karen Finerman on Fast Money made a very similar comment. I take that be a move to the center. Neutral. In my opinion Barry is still very bearish. Maybe he is expecting the S&P to take another leg down to 1230. Why don’t you ask him? If it does drop to those levels or lower I will adding to all of my positions. I have been adding since January.
Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the March 10 Bottom
Don't believe the extreme bloggers on this site.
They are padding their own positions.
They are padding their clients.
They are padding their websites and books.
Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the March 10 Bottom
The safety net is catching the dead mice that are falling from the ceiling.
The chemo is working. Only in Amercian can this happen and only in America can it be fixed.
Bearish Bloggers Too Optimistic!
And now you are too bearish. Will you be making more confessions down the road?
Paulson's Plan: Too Late in the Boondoggle
GEE I DIDN'T KNOW THAT. If a fruit fly lands on a banana peel are you going to blog about that as well?
However, this lesson about risk management may be an extremely costly one to learn.
TRUE INDEED! But we already know that. If two fruit flies land on a banana peel are you going to blog about that as well?
Keep in mind that the world everyday faces all kinds of risk management and most of it is not financial.
Try living through the CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS. The risk was . . . the end.
Subprime Write-Downs More Than 50% Done? Write-Ups Coming Next?
This site is heavily skewed to the negative. That's a buy signal.
What is most troubling about the negative bloggers it that they provide no counter points or potential solutions. They don't want to do this because they are padding there own and their clients positions.
Providing Aid to the Disabled
This is old news from old and yellowed newspapers and yellowed bloggers.
If the market takes a dip or plunge. Buy!
Fed Pours More Debt on the Fire
You would rather have a DEPRESSION. The island will sink underwater. Then we would be absolutely broke. How would 10 or 15 or 20 percent unemployment help the little guy?
Its not up to the Fed to protect the little guy. The Democrats are supposed to do that and they can't seem to satisfy everyone in their party. Warren Buffett is supporting Hilliary and I like the Dems as well because the middle class needs a much better tax break and the rich are not taxed enough. The dollar has been dropping long before Bernake took over. I would rather have inflation than a very bad recession or depression that could last a decade or more. Also, there are many short sellers that are padding their book on this site, on TV, and print. They want chaos and a filling of helplessness. This is a very important point to remember in a bear market. In a wild bull market the opposite can become true as well. The bulls will promise you a rose garden. But back to what is going on now.
Members on this site are using words and phrases like: death of a thousand cuts, world wide despair, fear fueling more fear, the Fed does not know what they are doing and so on. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Foreign investors will show up at our doorstep with cash after the downturn becomes stable. This is not Armageddon and they know it. Later this year or early in 09 the dollar will rebound and investors around the world will be praising America. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
The commodities bubble will burst. This will be Armageddon but not for the consumer. The frozen consumer will defrost. Coins will be jingling again. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Later in 08 housing starts will show faint signs of leveling off. By Mid 09 housing will be fully stable. Large plumes of dust from new home construction sites will appear on the horizon. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Keep the faith! I have been in the market for 50 years. However, all bets are off if something new comes into the equation. For example, a lot of folks say that we did not recover from the tech bubble until 03 but you must remember that several new factors came into the equation. After the tech bubble we had 9/11 late in 01, the airline industry nearly went under, and then later two mayor scandals -- Enron and Worldcom.
So if something new, and different, and very bad happens all bets are off. Keep the faith. We will get out of this mess.
CFOs: Recession Has Already Started
We have had three world downturns and they all have faltered. Call it a triple bottom? THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Members on this site are using word and phrases like: death of a thousand cuts, world wide despair, fear fueling more fear and so on. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Foreign investors will show up at our doorstep with cash. This not Armageddon and they know it. They will start buying while the dollar is low. Later this year or early in 09 the dollar will rebound and investors around the world will be praising America. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
The commodities bubble will burst. This will be Armageddon but not for the consumer. The frozen consumer will defrost. Coins will be jingling again. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Later in 08 housing starts will show faint signs of leveling off. By Mid 09 housing will be fully stable. Large plumes of dust from new home construction sites will appear on the horizon. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
As you see Barry, your string is getting shorter and good luck with all those cups they will be very hungry.
5 Reasons the Fed's Credit Bailout Will Likely Disappoint
If the Fed plan does not work what then - Armageddon?
We have factored in an humongous amount of bad news. All of this is VERY BULLISH!
Fed Actions Have Produced Goose Eggs
We are having FUN! All this palaver kills time. But seriously, it gives us time to collect our thoughts and see and even feel what others are doing and saying. Right now the sentiment on this sight is very bearish. This is good news for the bulls. The markets have tested a bottom three times. So far they have not broken down to new lows maybe its because the sentiment is so negative.
Futures Down Triple Digits on Hedge Fund Collapse
We have had three world downturns and they all have faltered. Call it a triple bottom? THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Members on this site are using word and phrases like: death of a thousand cuts, world wide despair, fear fueling more fear and so on. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Foreign investors will show up at our doorstep. This not Armageddon and they know it. They will start buying while the dollar is low. Later this year or early in 09 the dollar will rebound and investors around the world will be praising America. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
The commodities bubble will burst. This will be Armageddon but not for the consumer. The frozen consumer will defrost. Coins will be jingling again. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
Later in 08 housing starts will show faint signs of leveling off. By Mid 09 housing will be fully stable. Large plumes of dust from new home construction sites will appear on the horizon. THIS IS VERY BULLISH!
As you see Barry, your string is getting short and good luck with all those cups they will be very hungry.
Fed Actions Have Produced Goose Eggs
The internet has made us impatient. How can you give the game a score before the game is not over?
The bears are over breeding and their cubs are running wild. THIS IS BULLISH!!!
S&P says the end of the write downs are in site. THIS IS BULLISH!!!
Repeated world downturns falter. The world can only cry wolf so many times. THIS IS BULLISH!!!
Should the US Government Buy Bank Equity?
First story:
"Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled."
Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday. from Mr Nofate
______________________...
Second story:
"The son does use a credit card but instead of spending it on himself he wants to lend out the money and become loan shark. His idea is to lend out as much money that he can. In the mean time people that he is lending out to all live on an island. The island depends on a dike system to keep the island from going underwater. The dikes take an enormous amount of power to run. The islanders are taxed a lot to keep the power going..
The loan business is slow starting and the son wants it to grow much faster. His rich daddy is still backing him up and thinks his son is remarkable. The son's new business plan offers loan owners interest in a new waterfront country club if they barrow more. They see it as a steal and it makes them feel rich so they barrow more. His new business plan is a success for many years. The new country club is well under construction. Most of the people on the island are happy and think they have it made. The son pockets a good deal of wealth but he always wants more and more.
As more time passes, the cost of the power to run the dikes starts to increase rapidly. Sadly some of the islanders become sick. The doctors on the island suspect the Avian virus. Some even die and others cannot work. Unemployment starts to rise dramatically and the power for the dikes continues to rise.
Not all of the islanders owe money to the son. Many are still wealthy and never liked what the son has done and they are very much concerned about the rising cost to power for the dikes. More time passes and construction cost for the country club increases as well. Construction on the project starts to slow down. Many on the island start to become angry.
Taxes receipts to pay for the power for the dikes starts to diminish. Some of the islanders want to raise taxes to pay for the power. The islanders that are sick are not paying taxes. A meeting is called. The meeting is a failure and the son goes into hiding. However, the islanders come up with another plan but still many on the island do not like the newer plan as well
The newer plan requires the islanders to barrow more money but from the mainland. The wealthy on the island do not like this plan because it will require them to pay more taxes in the future. However, some of the middle class people on the island become restless and crime increases.
The islanders are at a serious crossroad. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many on the island say the island will sink completely underwater if new monies are not borrowed. Others do not agree and feel the island will be on okay without the additional debt."
I’m not going to finish this story. I will let your imagination do the rest.
But my point is we can let GM or Ford go under and we will still have cars. However, we cannot take this chance with the banks. Banks are the corner stone, hence the island metaphor, of our capitalism. If the banks sink we all sink. We cannot afford to take the slightest chance that this will spread further and sink us all. At the same time it’s a shame that a lot of our mortgage companies, brokerages firms and money center banks let this happen.
Some Fascinating Facts About Fed Injections
First story:
"Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled.
Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday." from Mr NoFate
______________________...
Second story:
"The son does use a credit card but instead of spending it on himself he wants to lend out the money and become loan shark. His idea is to lend out as much money that he can. In the mean time people that he is lending out to all live on an island. The island depends on a dike system to keep the island from going underwater. The dikes take an enormous amount of power to run. The islanders are taxed a lot to keep the power going..
The loan business is slow starting and the son wants it to grow much faster. His rich daddy is still backing him up and thinks his son is remarkable. The son's new business plan offers loan owners interest in a new waterfront country club if they barrow more. They see it as a steal and it makes them feel rich so they barrow more. His new business plan is a success for many years. The new country club is well under construction. Most of the people on the island are happy and think they have it made. The son pockets a good deal of wealth but he always wants more and more.
As more time passes, the cost of the power to run the dikes starts to increase rapidly. Sadly some of the islanders become sick. The doctors on the island suspect the Avian virus. Some even die and others cannot work. Unemployment starts to rise dramatically and the power for the dikes continues to rise.
Not all of the islanders owe money to the son. Many are still wealthy and never liked what the son has done and they are very much concerned about the rising cost to power for the dikes. More time passes and construction cost for the country club increases as well. Construction on the project starts to slow down. Many on the island start to become angry.
Taxes receipts to pay for the power for the dikes starts to diminish. Some of the islanders want to raise taxes to pay for the power. The islanders that are sick are not paying taxes. A meeting is called. The meeting is a failure and the son goes into hiding. However, the islanders come up with another plan but still many on the island do not like the newer plan as well
The newer plan requires the islanders to barrow more money but from the mainland. The wealthy on the island do not like this plan because it will require them to pay more taxes in the future. However, some of the middle class people on the island become restless and crime increases.
The islanders are at a serious crossroad. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many on the island say the island will sink completely underwater if new monies are not borrowed. Others do not agree and feel the island will be on okay without the additional debt."
I’m not going to finish this story. I will let your imagination do the rest.
But my point is we can let GM or Ford go under and we will still have cars built. However, we cannot take this chance with the banks. Banks are the corner stone, hence the island metaphor, of our capitalism. If the banks sink we all sink. We cannot afford to take the slightest chance that this will spread further and sink us all. At the same time it’s a shame that a lot of our mortgage companies, brokerages firms and money center banks let this happen.