Tony Soprano

Milli Vanilli Government: Latest Casualties - Bear and VISA

Two of America's greatest friends and allies are Israel and Britain.

I believe we should do everything necessary to support Israel.

I'm not a Yahoo board spammer!

Big Banks: Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Bail

Since there is so much angst directed toward the Fed and the US Government, I decided to listed some events, not all of them, that had dramatic ramifications on lives, cost and the psychology of our country. I started in 1906 because it’s just a little over a hundred years. As I compiled the list, I could not help but feel the great sacrifices that many American’s have made and what a resilient country, economy and government we have in American.

The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and fire, registered 8.25 on the Richter scale; estimates range from 700 to 3,000 dead or missing, approximately 225,000 injuries and $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars.

Recession, May 1907-June 1908, 13 mo

Recession Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912, 24 months

Completion of the Panama Canal, 1914 – 27,500 workers are estimated to have died

Recession Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914 23 months

World War I -- 116,708 killed – 33 billion

Spanish influenza, 1918, killed over 500,000 people in the worst single U.S. epidemic.

Recession Aug. 1918-March 1919 7 months

Recession Jan. 1920-July 1921, 18 months

Recession May 1923-July 1924 14 months

Recession Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 13 months

The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927, flooded 27,000 square miles, 246 killed

The Great Depression, Black Tuesday, crop prices fell by 40 to 60 percent, after the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 US banks failed. (In all, 9,000 banks failed during the 1930s). By 1933, depositors had lost $140 billion in deposits.

The Dirty Thirties, longest drought of 20th century. Peak periods were 1930, 1934, 1936, 1939, and 1940. The "dust bowl" covered 50 million acres in the south-central plains during the winter of 1935-1936.

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 400 killed

Recession May 1937-June 1938 13 months

World War II – 408,306 killed – 360 billion

Wartime Controls: 1941-1945 rationed consumer items ranging from sugar to gasoline

Recession Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945 8 months

The Marshall Plan, July 1947 – 13 billion in economic and technical assistance were given to help the recovery of the European countries

Recession Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949 11 months

Korean War, July 1951 - July 1953 – 33,000 killed in action

Recession July 1953-May 1954 10 months

Recession Aug. 1957-April 1958 8 months

Recession April 1960-Feb. 1961 10 months

The Cold War, some estimates shows $8 trillion was spent, worldwide, on nuclear and other weapons between 1945 and 1996

The Cuban Missile Crisis, Oct. 1962

Good Friday Earthquake (1964) In Alaska, it was the fourth biggest earthquake recorded

Vietnam War, 1963 – 47,378 killed in action

The murder of JFK, 1963 Nov

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, Aug 1964

The murder of Dr King, April 1968 and Bobby Kennedy, June 1968

The city riots of April, 1968 – 30 cities affected

Hurricane Camille, Aug 1969, 259 killed

Recession Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970 11 months

Stagflation of the 1970s began

Nixon first imposed wage and price controls on August 15, 1971

Oil Embargo, Oct 1973 long gas lines

Recession Nov. 1973-March 1975 16 months

Articles of Impeachment of Nixon started
(Approved by a vote of 27-11 by the House Judiciary Committee on Saturday, July 27, 1974.)

Deregulation: 1974-1992 this era began when Nixon left office

Three Mile Island nuclear power plant crisis, March 1979

Mount St. Helens eruption 1980

Recession Jan. 1980-July 1980 6 months

Prime reached unbelievable 20% in January 1981,

AIDS was first reported June 5, 1981 by the government – It is thought that more than one million people are living with HIV in the USA and that more than half a million have died after developing AIDS.

Recession July 1981-Nov. 1982 16 months

California earthquake 1983

The 87 market crash - Black Monday

California earthquake, 1989

Recession July 1990-March 1991 8 months

Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990

The Persian Gulf War, 1991 or Desert Storm Jan 1991

Hurricane Andrew 1992 very destructive United States hurricane

The Great USA Flood of 1993

Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia,

Dot Com Bubble, climaxed on March 10th, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52

9/11 Attack, 2,974 people died

Recession March 2001-Nov. 2001 8 months, Airline Industry Collapsed

Enron bankruptcy in late 2001, employed 22,000

WorldCom, July 21, 2002, filed for Chapter 11

Iraq War, March 19, 2003 – 4,000 dead

Hurricane Katrina, late August 2005, 1,836 people lost their lives

Start of the Great Housing Recession or Sub-prime Recession 2006 or 07, 08? Date to be determined.

Fast Money Recap 3/19/08: Morgan Stanley Outshines Goldman

Since there is so much angst directed toward the Fed and the US Government, I decided to listed some events, not all of them, that had dramatic ramifications on lives, cost and the psychology of our country. I started in 1906 because it’s just a little over a hundred years. As I compiled the list, I could not help but feel the great sacrifices that many American’s have made and what a resilient country, economy and government we have in American.

The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and fire, registered 8.25 on the Richter scale; estimates range from 700 to 3,000 dead or missing, approximately 225,000 injuries and $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars.

Recession, May 1907-June 1908, 13 mo

Recession Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912, 24 months

Completion of the Panama Canal, 1914 – 27,500 workers are estimated to have died

Recession Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914 23 months

World War I -- 116,708 killed – 33 billion

Spanish influenza, 1918, killed over 500,000 people in the worst single U.S. epidemic.

Recession Aug. 1918-March 1919 7 months

Recession Jan. 1920-July 1921, 18 months

Recession May 1923-July 1924 14 months

Recession Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 13 months

The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927, flooded 27,000 square miles, 246 killed

The Great Depression, Black Tuesday, crop prices fell by 40 to 60 percent, after the panic of 1929, and during the first 10 months of 1930, 744 US banks failed. (In all, 9,000 banks failed during the 1930s). By 1933, depositors had lost $140 billion in deposits.

The Dirty Thirties, longest drought of 20th century. Peak periods were 1930, 1934, 1936, 1939, and 1940. The "dust bowl" covered 50 million acres in the south-central plains during the winter of 1935-1936.

Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 400 killed

Recession May 1937-June 1938 13 months

World War II – 408,306 killed – 360 billion

Wartime Controls: 1941-1945 rationed consumer items ranging from sugar to gasoline

Recession Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945 8 months

The Marshall Plan, July 1947 – 13 billion in economic and technical assistance were given to help the recovery of the European countries

Recession Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949 11 months

Korean War, July 1951 - July 1953 – 33,000 killed in action

Recession July 1953-May 1954 10 months

Recession Aug. 1957-April 1958 8 months

Recession April 1960-Feb. 1961 10 months

The Cold War, some estimates shows $8 trillion was spent, worldwide, on nuclear and other weapons between 1945 and 1996

The Cuban Missile Crisis, Oct. 1962

Good Friday Earthquake (1964) In Alaska, it was the fourth biggest earthquake recorded

Vietnam War, 1963 – 47,378 killed in action

The murder of JFK, 1963 Nov

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, Aug 1964

The murder of Dr King, April 1968 and Bobby Kennedy, June 1968

The city riots of April, 1968 – 30 cities affected

Hurricane Camille, Aug 1969, 259 killed

Recession Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970 11 months

Stagflation of the 1970s began

Nixon first imposed wage and price controls on August 15, 1971

Oil Embargo, Oct 1973 long gas lines

Recession Nov. 1973-March 1975 16 months

Articles of Impeachment of Nixon started
(Approved by a vote of 27-11 by the House Judiciary Committee on Saturday, July 27, 1974.)

Deregulation: 1974-1992 this era began when Nixon left office

Three Mile Island nuclear power plant crisis, March 1979

Mount St. Helens eruption 1980

Recession Jan. 1980-July 1980 6 months

Prime reached unbelievable 20% in January 1981,

AIDS was first reported June 5, 1981 by the government – It is thought that more than one million people are living with HIV in the USA and that more than half a million have died after developing AIDS.

Recession July 1981-Nov. 1982 16 months

California earthquake 1983

The 87 market crash - Black Monday

California earthquake, 1989

Recession July 1990-March 1991 8 months

Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990

The Persian Gulf War, 1991 or Desert Storm Jan 1991

Hurricane Andrew 1992 very destructive United States hurricane

The Great USA Flood of 1993

Intervention in the Former Yugoslavia,

Dot Com Bubble, climaxed on March 10th, 2000 with the NASDAQ peaking at 5132.52

9/11 Attack, 2,974 people died

Recession March 2001-Nov. 2001 8 months, Airline Industry Collapsed

Enron bankruptcy in late 2001, employed 22,000

WorldCom, July 21, 2002, filed for Chapter 11

Iraq War, March 19, 2003 – 4,000 dead

Hurricane Katrina, late August 2005, 1,836 people lost their lives

Start of the Great Housing Recession or Sub-prime Recession 2006 or 07, 08? Date to be determined.

It's Not a Crisis, But a Chaotic Calamity

Articles like this are getting long in the tooth. Most of the publisher's to this site are bearish.

The above piece is long and confusing. In my opinion, the short of it (no pun intended) is that we will prevail. We have the best government in the world. Every time our govt has intervened in some crisis it has worked and that goes all the way back to 1914.

Jim Rogers will have to take a sleeping pill tonight. He is so angry at the Fed. The weak dollar will mean that China, (Jim Rogers dream country) will sell fewer goods to us. That will slow their economy. China already has high inflation. Commodities dropped like a bric today. (no pun intended) China could burst. They have problems, in Tibet, more pollution than septic tank, very high inflation and more govt intervention than Al Gore, Ralph Nader, or Ted Kennedy could dream up in ten thousand years.

Gartman today on Fast Money said he is now long of JP Morgan – a bank stock. For those of you who don't know him he has been short of stocks and long of gold for a good while. But he has reversed his position.

More Thoughts on the Fed & JPM's BSC Liquidation

"“• I think the Fed is acting appropriately to avert an entire financial system meltdown. Whether they will be successful is as of yet, unknown. As we are so fond of saying, there will be costs: Financial, economic, psychological, and prestige-wise to this debacle.”
______________________...

Bravo! The island must stay afloat or we all drown.

However, every time the government intervened it worked. Also, cost: Financial, economic, psychological, and prestige-wise to this debacle has been, to some degree, factored into the markets.

Don't forget what Jan Hatzius said last Friday: a depreciating dollar is normal for the currency of a country that is about to go into a recession. We fight inflation later.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

When you read history and each time our government intervened it worked. It did not work in a day or month but over time it worked.

Jimmy Rogers is very angry now because the Fed intervened. Why? He complains that the bosses at Bear will still get their bonuses. Well Okay. But what is he really mad about? Hmm, let me think, viola, our system works.

China does not have a system like ours. The dollar is falling and Americans will be buy less from China. Demand for commodities will decease. Inflation in China will and cannot continue and their government is managed to the maximum. The bubble will burst or deflate and Jim will lose a lot of money. Remember and he said this himself that he was going to move and live in China but decided not to because of pollution. American is the best place to live and invest. Jim can go to China if wants to.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

I did not say to buy last August, last September, or even last October. Not even in January but I did start to nibble some then and I am doing just fine.

The sentiment now is so negative. Some are saying that the fix we are in is not fixable. To me that's really good news.

Other shorts are just piling on . . . well you can pile on only so much and the news like above, even though its very true, becomes redundant.

LEH may go next. But we know what will happen. The Fed will be there. The shorts are now going to have to compete with the government. By govt. I mean the Fed, the Treasury, and Congress and even other world economies.

Two Dollars per Share, or an "Orderly Liquidation"?

Heap it on and pile it on, doom and gloom, its time to start buying and stay long.

Milli Vanilli Government: Latest Casualties - Bear and VISA

BUY TODAY!!! AND STAY LONG!!!

IT’S NOW THE FED AGAINST THE SHORTS. THE FED WILL WIN.

THE FED WILL KEEP THE ISLAND AFLOAT.

THIS IS CAPITULATION!!!

DON'T BUY INTO ALL THAT NEGATIVE THOUGHT ABOVE!

Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funding From NY Fed, JP Morgan

I remember the 1999-2000 tech bubble, the 9/11/2001 attack, Enron, Worldcom, and Katrina, and so do you.

I remember in the early 90's the dollar was depreciating against the Italian lira. That was really bad but no pun intended.

I remember in 73 - 74 American's were saying that their children would not fair as well as they had. It was a very tough time.

I remember in the early 60's to 68, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of Kennedy, Vietnam, the murder of Dr King, and Bobby Kennedy. Then came the riots across our nation. Our cities were burning. This was a very dark and gloomy time and that's when I first started buying STOCKS!!!

GOD BLESS AMERICA, AND ALL OF OUR LEADERS, AND ALL OF OUR PEOPLE AND ALL OF OUR ARMED FORCES.

Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funding From NY Fed, JP Morgan

sammyg123

"verge of a black swan event - meaning, and major once in a lifetime terrible financial problem that will have a big tail

I LOVE THIS PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT -- ITS TIME TO START BUYING. PAINFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT = PNS – HOWEVER, I DO NOT LOVE PAIN UNLESS SOME GOOD WILL COME OUT OF IT

“The only way out is creative destruction - the companies holding toxic debt must be destroyed.”

MORE ‘PNS’ AND I MUST SAY I REALLY LOVE THE WORD DESTRUCTION, ITS SO PAINFULLY BULLISH. ALSO, I’M BEGINNING TO SENSE A FEELING GLEE IN YOUR DIRE PREDICTIONS. THIS IS “PPNS”, PAINFULLY POWERFUL NEGATIVE STATEMENT

“Other financial institutions will suffer the same, just like the mortgage lenders who closed their doors and sent their employees to the street.”

MORE “PNS”, YOUR PIECE IS BECOMING A LITTLE REDUNDANT BUT I’M GETTING THE POINT

“Meanwhile, low interest rates are putting upward pressure on inflation. Inflation is a problem that is difficult for the fed to contain, and results from tight monetary policy have a long lag time.”

THE SECOND SENTENCE IS A BIT CONFUSING TO ME AND IF YOU DON’T MIND I WILL REPHRASE IT FOR YOU: Inflation will be very serious and very difficult for the Fed to contain. When the Fed does start to fight inflation and tighten monetary policy it will take a great deal of time. Time that we may not be able to afford.

“You can debate this all you like, but there is only one reality, and it is bigger, and worse, than what I have described. There is hope at the end of the tunnel, but we are going to have to live through some tough times here. Perhaps you are lucky, and wealthy, and don't have to worry about it. I really hope so.”

THANKS FOR YOUR CONCERN – I APPRECIATE IT. I HOPE THE BEST FOR YOU AND OUR NATION AS WELL.

In my heart of hearts I feel and know that the Fed is doing the right thing. A serious recession would be very ugly and this is why the Fed will try every tool they have. If a string of banks go under and we dip into a very bad recession unemployment could rise to 10 percent or “God forbid” 20 percent.

This could bankrupt the NATION over time. Deflation can be much more destructive than inflation.

Inflation hawks and dollar hawks all say that the Fed is destroying the NATION. To me what the Fed is doing is the less of two evils. I’m not happy about it.

Jan Hatzius (gs) was asked on Bloomberg, Friday, about the crashing dollar. He said it was normal for the currency of a country to devalue when it’s going into a recession.

Below are two stories about our choices concerning this financial crisis. Basically, its about the two poison pills and which one should we take. They are both fictional. One simple and one complex and from another blog and blogger (NoFate) on this site.

First story:

"Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled.

Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday. from NoFate

Second Story:

The son does use a credit card but instead of spending it on himself he wants to lend out the money and become loan shark. His idea is to lend out as much money that he can. In the mean time people that he is lending out to all live on an island. The island depends on a dike system to keep the island from going underwater. The dikes take an enormous amount of power to run. The islanders are taxed a lot to keep the power going..

The loan business is slow starting and the son wants it to grow much faster. His rich daddy is still backing him up and thinks his son is remarkable. The son's new business plan offers loan owners interest in a new waterfront country club if they barrow more. They see it as a steal and it makes them feel rich so they barrow more. His new business plan is a success for many years. The new country club is well under construction. Most of the people on the island are happy and think they have it made. The son pockets a good deal of wealth but he always wants more and more.

As more time passes, the cost of the power to run the dikes starts to increase rapidly. Sadly some of the islanders become sick. The doctors on the island suspect the Avian virus. Some even die and others cannot work. Unemployment starts to rise dramatically and the power for the dikes continues to rise.

Not all of the islanders owe money to the son. Many are still wealthy and never liked what the son has done and they are very much concerned about the rising cost to power for the dikes. More time passes and construction cost for the country club increases as well. Construction on the project starts to slow down. Many on the island start to become angry.

Taxes receipts to pay for the power for the dikes starts to diminish. Some of the islanders want to raise taxes to pay for the power. The islanders that are sick are not paying taxes. A meeting is called. The meeting is a failure and the son goes into hiding. However, the islanders come up with another plan but still many on the island do not like the newer plan as well.

The newer plan requires the islanders to barrow more money but from the mainland. The wealthy on the island do not like this plan because it will require them to pay more taxes in the future. However, some of the middle class people on the island become restless and crime increases.

The islanders are at a serious crossroad. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Many on the island say the island will sink completely underwater if new monies are not borrowed. Others do not agree and feel the island will be fine without the additional debt.

I will let your imagination do the rest.

Tony Soprano

Subprime Write-Downs More Than 50% Done? Write-Ups Coming Next?

Good read -- thanks for doing it Vikram.

This site is heavily skewed to the negative. That's a buy signal.

What is most troubling about the negative bloggers it that they provide no counter points or potential solutions. They don't want to do this because they are padding there own and their clients positions.