drbagel

31 Comments

    • Do Foreign Currency ETFs Have a Place in Your Portfolio? [view article]
      Thanks. I found this article to be useful.

      One currency bundle I'd like to see...All world except US currency.       Sep 03 09:00 PM
    • Decoupling Of Physical Gold And Paper Gold Prices [view article]
      Secmaven is right on. When gigantor investors buy gold they buy enormous bars at low markup. Now, as they dump their bars, small investors are scrambling to pick up small size bullion items (krugerrands...etc.) Hence the heavy markup in coins.

      It may be that fiat money is eventually doomed, but that doesn't mean it's doomed in the immediate future. This is just one man's opinion, but I really think a lot of small time gold investors are going to take a bath on this one.       Sep 02 12:44 PM
    • Gold Speculators Rushing In? [view article]
      Small investors are buying gold coins while huge sales of gold bars and futures are occurring. Thus the shortage in coin. They always say that small time investors get in too late and take a beating just when something peaks. Maybe we are witnessing that right now. Aug 22 07:56 AM
    • Silver and Gold: Buy, Hold or Run? [view article]
      "I Has anyone tried to buy physical gold lately? It's getting harder to do, i.e. waiting for deliveries,etc. yet the price was going down?"

      Buy it cheap makes an interesting point. I have noticed this too. I wonder if the "smart money" is getting out in bulk (comex bars) while the small investors are piling onto a sinking ship (coins and small denomination bullion). This would explain both.       Aug 21 12:35 PM
    • The International Gold Rush: Bulls May Soon Be Rewarded [view article]
      fiddle,Nero, fiddle Jul 30 09:47 AM
    • Interview with Nick Barisheff: Gold is Money [view article]
      Currently, all active financial endeavors are denominated in fiat currency. Borrow money, sell a product, earn a salary...you're dealing in fiat dollars. Gold can be money under certain circumstances. It is important to realize that by owning gold, you forgo participation in the rest of the economy. A lump of metal is a lump of metal. The current system creates a dichotomy between active financial endeavors and gold. Perhaps this is by design. The result is that holding gold carries an opportunity cost. The wealthiest people in the world earn their keep in the fiat economy, because the greatest oportunity for wealth creation exists in trade. No one ever gets rich by stuffing their mattress full of money. Owning and holding gold provides no trade opportunity. Ironically, golds greatest strength is also a major weakness. It is never someone elses obligation, but lets not forget that obligations can be very lucrative. Don't get me wrong. I like gold. I own gold. Its a hedge and its insurance but holding gold is putting money in a mattress. It is clear to me that Mr Barisheff is selling something. He has a business, and guess what, its denominated in dollars. Jul 29 11:03 PM
    • Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction' [view article]
      Oil, like any commodity can destroy its own demand when prices skyrocket. For the last 30 years there has been little incentive to provide for an alternative. People underestimate just how much the US economy can adapt to higher oil prices. Demand is already down and this is just the beginning. Watch me vacation in Maine instead of Europe. Watch me drive less and wear more sweaters. I will buy a wood stove. Bottom feeder may be right that prices will remain high for 5-10 years or maybe even more. But I'm not a market timer and wouldnt know how to decide when to sell my energy stocks and futures. People will adapt to this, and in time we'll live on less. BTW, so will China and India. If bullish energy sentiments are showing up on Blogs, then they are already priced into the market, making Oil prices fragile and easily prone to a major correction. Jul 27 07:08 PM
    • Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction' [view article]
      Much of this bull market is inflationary. Energy, gold, silver, platinum, grains, base metals and foreign currencies dont all move together by accident. Everybody needs more of everything simultaneously all of the sudden??

      Anyway we are extrapolating into the future on a linear basis without taking into account the inevitable but unforeseen technological breakthroughs that change the world. It wouldn't take much to change this whole equation.       Jul 27 02:51 PM
    • Asset Class Correlations [view article]
      Thanks yuman. that helps. Jul 22 06:34 PM
    • Asset Class Correlations [view article]
      I dont understand why treasuries are inversely correlated with the dollar. Can someone explain? Jul 22 02:20 PM
    • Are American Companies Now Up For Grabs? [view article]
      Clearly Inbev wants to be part of US business in the years going forward. If the lump sum will look better in the future then why not wait to buy. You dont buy something because you expect it to depreciate. Jul 13 08:22 AM
    • Are American Companies Now Up For Grabs? [view article]
      The free market works this way. Let them come. Let them buy. Inbev wants to earn Dollars. Deals like this are healthy and will contribute to Dollar strength. Jul 13 07:49 AM
    • Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight [view article]
      Thank you, very interesting. I am concerned that the credit crunch is distorting the usual inflationary signals seen in the bond market. Investors have fled to treasuries for safety, pushing yields down. Much of the money currently in treasuries was in MBS and other credit products I dont understand and which did not exist during the last round of inflation. Perhaps this keeps the bond market from registering the inflationary trend.

      I also wonder if destruction of wealth is really the same thing as destruction of money. Deflation would result from the destruction of money. When people lose money in property value they are losing wealth, not cash.

      There is a fascinating disconnect between bond yields and commodity/gold prices. One of these is wrong. I dont know which.       Jul 10 08:42 AM
    • Looking for an Inflation Linked Parking Spot [view article]
      I would argue that bonds are the wrong way to hedge inflation. TIPS are indexed to CPI, which underestimates inflation for several reasons, not the least of which is the exclusion of food and energy. In general I think they are misunderstood. All they really promise is stable value. When inflation is up they underestimate it and when inflation is down they pay almost nothing. TIPS are really most useful for people heavily invested in bonds. For folks with generous stock allocations, I think an allocation to an inflation liked sector goes much further than TIPS possibly can. Inflation creates false shortages. Commodity prices go up if there is excess demand relative to supply, but also if there is too much money. The result is a false boom for commodity producers which is rapidly reflected in stock prices. XME seems to make the most sense (metals and coal). Some people may prefer commodity ETF's or ETN's but these carry tax consequences or corporate debt risk. Jul 07 11:59 AM
    • Global Inflation Rates [view article]
      How can Saudi Arabia have more than double the US inflation rate if their currency is pegged to the USD? Jun 22 12:20 PM
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