drbagel

Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

Oil, like any commodity can destroy its own demand when prices skyrocket. For the last 30 years there has been little incentive to provide for an alternative. People underestimate just how much the US economy can adapt to higher oil prices. Demand is already down and this is just the beginning. Watch me vacation in Maine instead of Europe. Watch me drive less and wear more sweaters. I will buy a wood stove. Bottom feeder may be right that prices will remain high for 5-10 years or maybe even more. But I'm not a market timer and wouldnt know how to decide when to sell my energy stocks and futures. People will adapt to this, and in time we'll live on less. BTW, so will China and India. If bullish energy sentiments are showing up on Blogs, then they are already priced into the market, making Oil prices fragile and easily prone to a major correction.

Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

Much of this bull market is inflationary. Energy, gold, silver, platinum, grains, base metals and foreign currencies dont all move together by accident. Everybody needs more of everything simultaneously all of the sudden??

Anyway we are extrapolating into the future on a linear basis without taking into account the inevitable but unforeseen technological breakthroughs that change the world. It wouldn't take much to change this whole equation.

ETFs For When Oil Falls

Banks are very negatively correlated with oil right now. KBE is -.9 with USO over the last year according to SSGA website. Why? Inflation. Oil is an inflation hedge and a drop in oil would by highly disinflationary. Lenders, like banks, loose money on inflation as borrowers make fixed payments in increasingly more worthless currency. So add KBE to your list of oil hedges.