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Tom McClennan

Tom McClennan
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  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    Yet another misguided backward looking valuation on a forward looking company with outstanding prospects in multiple industries, not just the car business.
    Apr 3 09:55 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Somewhere In Europe, 100 Model S' Destroy A Myth [View article]
    Wow, you have been busy splurging out non stop articles these past few days. Hows the short position doing ?
    Mar 20 07:36 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]

    “The .. types who can afford $100k+ for their toy aren't counting pennies at the pump.”

    I do! I’ve been fortunate to own various ‘supercars’ including Ferrari’s, here in EU. But when “gas” costs $10+ gallon and rising a Model S makes for seriously enjoyable performance with amazing practicality for less than 1/10th the running costs !!

    I used to spend £6,000+ ($10,000+) PA on petrol, plus all the silly pandering to well spoken Ferrari dealers who’ll willingly spank wads of cash out of you for changing a wiper blade, just don’t ask why a replacement Ferrari engine costs way more than a Tesla battery pack. In my direct experience most Ferrari engines are unlikely to go past 50k miles without something major going wrong whereas a Model S pack is good for 1,500+ charge cycles or 300-400k miles .. and has unlimited warranty for the first 8 yrs anyway.

    Add up the savings in running costs over a decade and a Model S will more than pay for itself (when compared to running an ICE car of similar performance). Invest those savings over the same period, say in TSLA, and the financial proposition is a no-brainer.

    And most people I know (not all ..) who are high net worth tend to be good at counting pennies generally, even if theres a k or an m after the number.

    So buying a Tesla makes perfect sense to me!

    In time prices will fall as with all new technology, and the Model E will sell like hot cakes to the masses.
    Feb 26 08:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buzz building over Tesla gigafactory [View news story]

    "What's so unique about Tesla's plan? I don't see it."

    Never mind, plenty of others do. The world would be boring if we all thought the same.

    But based on your previous 2,700 negative comments, how is that short position working for you ?
    Feb 24 02:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buzz building over Tesla gigafactory [View news story]
    The proposed factory is likely to dramatically cut Tesla's pack costs, and make them the single biggest supplier in the world, giving any competition a significant financial headache.

    Tesla plan to make the entire facility powered by renewable energy, hence scouting in Nevada.

    They also plan to encompass recycling of all other Lithium cells.

    Brilliant basically.

    Feb 24 02:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota talks hydrogen at CES [View news story]
    A Fool-cell car is basically an electric vehicle where stored hydrogen is the energy carrier. The hydrogen needs to be stored in a 5,000 PSI tank to get respectable range ( .. good luck with that).

    The daft thing is that making hydrogen needs high grade electricity for an electrolysis process that is LESS than 25% efficient, and that’s before all the energy needed to compress it.

    Surely its far far more efficient to forget all the electrolysing and simply store the electricity in the first place …

    Afterall, synthetic hydrogen as an energy carrier cannot be more efficient than the energy from which is it produced !! Renewable energy is far better distributed by electrons than any hydrogen method.

    There's no rational engineering or ecological or energy argument that comes close to justifying fuel cell cars … except profit generation for existing petrochemical companies, and enslavement to tax raising methods for governments, using the existing petrochemical distribution infrastructure which will one day be redundant give reducing oil reserves..
    Jan 6 07:45 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EV automakers ponder the sound of non-silence [View news story]
    28 yrs ago, in 1985, I made a tiny microprocessor device that sat inside a cassette tape case and sent engine sounds through the magnetic tape pickup head into the cars existing hi-fi and a very tick way of detecting engine rpm. It had V8, V12, jet turbine and steam engine sound fx ! Wind the clock forwards to 2011 and I buy a Tesla, which is an astonishing car to own and drive. Its now got an much upgraded version of that device for external and internal noise, all done wirelessly. I can now drive silently, or turn the volume up to get pod-racer, Ferrari V8 etc SFX going through a 7 way speaker system with sub, all controlled by accelerator activity. It’s not difficult to do! Lotus Engineering also own dozens of patents on this type of technology. A whole retro fit market awaits . .
    Dec 31 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Electric Engine That Could [View article]
    Here in Europe, gas prices are nearly THREE times as high as the USA. So 'payback' for the car will occur somewhere between 120-150k miles or so (but only if you compare the running costs against an ICE car of comparable performance and size).

    But we also have significant yearly road taxes, excessive servicing and parts costs, congestion taxes etc. Factor all of this in and the payback point is even lower.

    Once Europeans realise all the 'savings' to be had, and that the EU population is twice that of the US then I think demand for the model S could be HUGE and exceed the USA. Not forgetting all the other world territories yet to be developed like China, Australia etc which could be double demand again

    Then consider what's going to happen when Model X rolls out in 2014/5 to all the same territories . . . and the TSLA share price looks like a bargain on a forward looking basis.
    Aug 20 03:56 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs' New Price Target On Tesla... Time To Jump Ship? [View article]
    My gut feel is that yesterdays GS "upgraded" target was actually something to do with deliberate manipulation to suck shorts back in, and in fact the quarterly results due in a couple of weeks will be significantly better than most analysts expect, thereby creating another squeeze . . benefiting GS and its clients.

    Besides, if one personally believes TSLA is a growth stock and assumes a forward looking PE of just 30 and applies that to GS's own figures, then that puts the share price ahead of its recent peak. I am long on TSLA and believe that 3-4 yrs from now the share price will be very significantly higher than at present, making this past months peaks and troughs seem irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
    Jul 17 07:31 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Liquidity Problems And Overvaluation Make Tesla A Short Candidate [View article]
    This is yet another article bordering on being idiotic from someone looking backwards, with little to no understanding of the capital intensive nature of the market Tesla has been creating, and seemingly clueless about their now proven ability to disrupt one of the worlds major industries, or realize the dramatic effect it is going to have on their revenue streams from markets around the world in the next 3 to 4 years and beyond.
    Jul 13 07:30 AM | 37 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: For Now The Story Is Better Than The Stock [View article]
    @Darren . .

    The Model S is almost exactly same size as a Jaguar XF to within an inch or two, and there's plenty of those here in the UK !! It is a big'ish car but not prohibitively so.
    Jun 4 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Be The Last One Standing [View article]

    Its all very well calling yourself "Siabus Research" but you're not very good at the research bit … Tesla are in the process of repaying the entire $465m loan .. 9 YEARS EARLY, helped nicely by all the shorts who have lost their shirt on this stock, having followed all your other negative commentary Tesla.
    May 20 03:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Electrifying Q1 Results Will Shock The Short Sellers [View article]
    The cost of fuel across the EU is almost 300% higher than the US average, not 'double' !

    Prior to owning my Tesla Roadster, my annual fuel bill here in the EU was the equivalent of $9,500, but this has been reduced to just $400 of electricity by topping it up at night time rates... (And with Solar PV its Zero. In fact if you receive Feed In Tarriffs, you effectively get paid to drive it... )

    The attraction of saving $50k over 5 years of ownership is quite compelling ... and will significantly drive demand for the Model S in Europe. There are also ridiculously attractive tax benefits, like a 28% discount on the sticker price if you put the car down against corporation tax...
    May 9 07:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's 'Mirror Mirror On The Wall' Stock Can Fly Until July [View article]
    @ canadamelody …

    You seem to have some facts back to front …

    The 1998 Rav4EV had a mere 27kwh NimH pack, 0-60 in 18 seconds, and 70 mile range. ( I know someone who has one, and its still going strong on its original pack, 15 yrs later … )

    The 2012 Rav4EV has 40kwh Lithium pack, 0-60 in 6.8 seconds, and 105 mile range or more. And its 4WD. So if you can't wait for a Model X this is a pretty good option ! Its also got an 8 year, 100,000 mile warranty ...
    May 7 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
    @davdws :- " many weeks does it take to charge? …"

    An EV gets roughly 3 miles travel per kWh or energy, hence an 85kwh Tesla giving approx 270miles range.

    However, like Brett, I too charge a Tesla from Solar PV, albeit via some unusual load buffering hardware. I did it to prove a point. I recently fitted 8kw of panels myself, which, on a sunny day, can top the car up at the rate of around 24 miles worth per hour whilst its just parked outside, and I'm doing something else. On a good day, I can get 150+ miles worth for free …. .

    But … I only average about 40 miles travel per day, so I only need to accumulate 1.5 hours worth of sun per day, or maybe 6 hrs on a cloudy day. (In my first year of ownership I used to charge up with cheap night time grid electricity, with yearly charging costs at approx $400)

    Here's the killer point though - my previous petrol costs were $9k per year and rising (I'm in the EU where gas is 300% more than USA), and yet my PV system cost approx $5k to install. Payback time in terms of savings is under a year … and this setup should run for decades with almost zero maintenance.

    …… geddit ?
    Apr 29 08:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment