• BuyToSell
    Added more $XIV at $26.64
    2/3/14
    Reply (93)
    • megabird: added $26.47. Ouch!
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: Simply put S&P will go below $1653.08 below 200 sma
      2/3/14
    • megabird: that would be bloody. I am betting VIX tops out before it hits 22.
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: nice, matt. swash, what are you guessing the time frame for the move? a week? a month?
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: swash where are you getting that number? Oct 9 low?
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: Yeah that would be kind of insane lol
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: BuyToSell I back tested S&P back to 1960 using the 20 50 and 200 sma......
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: ...1964, 1995 now 2013 only yrs that S&P since 1960 never closed below the 200 sma...
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: ...look at the 20 sma crossing the 50 sma above the 200 sma since 1960 when 20/50 crossed above the 200 twice before going below the 200sma
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: ..the S&P close price on 2nd 20/50 cross is key here, Sept.4,2013 at $1653.08 because the S&P always since 1960 went below the price at 2nd
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: 20/50 cross to finally go below 200 sma. From the current S&P 52wk high would put it at a good correction around a 10% to go below $1653
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: CAUTION for XIV buy and hold look at Aug 2011.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: FYI you can use SVXY and XIV for the same trade.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: Of course the S&P can bounce around, up, down and sideways.
      2/3/14
    • megabird: For now, if VIX holds under 22, I am long and strong. Over 22, will go back to hedging against S&P drops. Tomorrow is the day to see I guess
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: hey thanks, swash. WHat's the advantage SVXY over XIV?
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: BuyToSell XIV is an ETN and SVXY ia an ETF they both move the same, no advantage either way. Just sharing that there are 2 of the same.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: mattbird, good luck with your gamble.But it should always go back up, because the vix always calms down, but how fast? No crystal ball here.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: I plan on trading only the vix for now on. I like the hudge swings.
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: I heard $ZIV is less volatile ..
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: yes it is less, but I want the more volatile ones. XIV SVXY ZIV VIXY VXX VXZ TVIX VIXM all work the vix.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: "If I wanted low volatility" with good dividends for future growth I would buy & hold CL CLX GIS K KO KRFT PEP PG and SJM. They are grade A.
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: BuyToSell or anyone that knows of anymore symbols that trade vix with good volume, please share. Thanks
      2/3/14
    • megabird: More volatile = less funds required for same net effect. Swash, I assume then that you are still in UVXY or equivalent?
      2/3/14
    • BuyToSell: hey swash check out this list http://bit.ly/14ty4to
      2/3/14
    • swashplate: mattbird I wish I could say I was in UVXY. I got my butt spanked a few times going opposite of the overall trend. I'm n cash waiting on XIV
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: mattbird I would like to find an ultra etf like UVXY but in other direction. I get HARD TO BORROW warning on shorting UVXY.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: mattbird I also do agree with your assumption that with vix above 20 that it should calm down now, so XIV goes up. But I am waiting
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: buytosell thinks for link, some of those do not have enough volume, that is why some are not on my watch list. I will take any info, thanks
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: BUYTOSELL & MATTBIRD what do you use and an indication to get in and out of XIV or any of the vix etf's or etn's?
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: "as an" not "and an" lol.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: mattbird also on less funds on UVXY I could use margin to get same effect % wise with VXX or XIV. I want do that because ...
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: ...it will make a loss bigger, too. I wish I was correct 100% of the time, lol.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I hope to compound bigger gains and keep the compounding losses smaller. My goal is to focus on vix this year instead chasing everything.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: swash, i've never played volatility before until this past week when it was pointed out that XIV was at a 5 month low. my strategy has been
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: basic so far - when it goes below 28 I buy some. Each handle it takes down, I buy some more. At some point when the market settles down,
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: it should 'snap back.' thoughts?
      2/4/14
    • megabird: Swash, if you follow Ocean Man, he plays this trade with a near 100% success rate. Right now he is buying. So I am buying...
      2/4/14
    • megabird: ...otherwise, VIX over 17 = buy XIV. VIX under 12 = buy UVXY. Though that may not hold true this year.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: hey matt are you noticing that XIV isn't matching the most recent jumps in $VIX that closely? I put them both up on the same chart and $VIX
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: gapped down this morning but XIV, while it rose, didn't move the corresponding amount.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I honestly don't follow it to that extent. It's not purely driven by VIX, I know that much.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I would say that Chris Ciovacco seems able to give good indicators of the mood of the market...
      2/4/14
    • megabird: ...He called the exact entry point into UVXY this time. Still indicates more downside.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I will read on ocean man, if he enters XIV with vix over 17 when do u exit?
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: buytosell I am not one to give advice but I wouldn't buy xiv just because it went below$28
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I watched hours of Steve Nison's course last year and that is worth every minute.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I don't have a great answer for that in this market. Last year I would have said sell at VIX 13, which was a +50% trade every time.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I learned that nothing is 100% or even 70% correct over time, but if your wins are at least twice the size as losses you can make $ by....
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: ....compounding your gains. If you win 50% of the time and you limit your loss you will be fine. I worry with the wash sale rule, that is...
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: ...why I am seeing what happens using SVXY and XIV to see if I can avoid that rule.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: swash, i bought it on ocean man's recommendation .. he noted that it was at a low - basically playing the new highs in volatility. it seems
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: like a reasonable thesis: once the correction completes, 'fear' should diminish... VIX goes down, XIV goes up ..
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: anyone can guess and sometimes be correct, but I still say S&P will get below $1653. When not sure. I also believe XIV will get below $25.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: and some day it (XIV) will get above 26.4 - my breakeven point. i can wait...
      2/4/14
    • megabird: If S&P approaches 1653, XIV will be way lower than $25. :)
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: lol @ mattb
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: mattbird yes u are correct.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I feel very sure S&P will get below $1653, but I never say when. It can go sideways or bounce up and down, but I feel strongly it will
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: no crystal ball here, lol.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: A Bear can run down the hill faster than a bull can climb up the hill. I am not saying a crash just a healthy 10% plus correction is coming
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: this year, can it be now?
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: everyone knows that history shows about 8 out of 10 yrs the market is up and up overall. I would like to buy and hold some stocks but if i
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: do that at the levels now, it would be as if I did it at the highs in 2007 waiting years to break even.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: That is why I am trying to learn trading and the past 2 years I made my brain cramp, lol.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I learned the hard way, sometimes it is better to sit patiently on the side. Kinda like fishing or playing poker get the odds in your favor.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: BIGGEST lesson I learned take a small loss and know what your loss and gain will be before you place a trade. Let your gains run not your
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: losses!!!!!!
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: Also you want to have your gains to be at least twice the loss risk or do not enter in the trade. You are going to loss some back to back
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I've only been doing this 7 months. Takes time!
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: the lesson about cutting your losses early is the hardest one to learn but also the most important. i know way too many ppl that sit in dead
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: or falling stocks hoping they'll come back when they could free up the cash to invest in something doing well.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: true, but I've most often gotten burned by selling on a 5-10% loss, only to have it bounce back way higher.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: my biggest lesson learned is "don't sell good stocks"
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: yeah had that happen way too many times lol. selling depends on a lot of things. i know a guy who's down $800 in $RCPI - look at the chart:
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: that stock isn't going anywhere and hasn't for awhile, but he doesn't want to take the loss. I don't blame him, real losses suck.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: Each person has to make their own decision. If a stock dropped on earnings, or a market pullback, and I was caught in it, I'd prolly hold it
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: because I know its actual potential. But if it's something more systemic, like the company lost an important patent or a biotech failed
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: a drug trial, I'd be outta there.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I have found that failed drug trials often make the best entry points.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: yep. AFTER it went down :)
      2/4/14
    • megabird: yup yup. almost without fail, they come back to life.
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: biotech zombies. lol
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: Remember stocks companies can go 0 bankrupt and you loose all. Seriously best thing ever is to watch learn all Steve Nison's classes.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: A buddy of mind got a deal on his material on ebay, so it was cheap. It is worth every penny. I wish I saw it sooner.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: only DGAZ goes to zero, everyone knows that.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: mattbird make a plan stick to it. Don't get overwhelmed with indicators they lag and will get u burnt. Find the support & resistance areas.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: lol yea DGAZ looks 0 bound lol
      2/4/14
    • BuyToSell: what happens when a short ETN/ETF goes to 0?
      2/4/14
    • megabird: it never does, they RS instead.
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: correct it is actual stocks for companies as I was saying can go bust. ETF/ETN keep reverse split your shares.
      2/4/14
    • megabird: I was joking :)
      2/4/14
    • swashplate: I may myself buy XIV today putting in a stop below the low.
      2/4/14