Jim Kingsdale

http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com

15 Comments

    • Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
      Groucho may have said what you ascribe to him or not but you probably meant to quote Lewis Carroll who wrote: if we had jam we could have a peanut butter and jam sandwich if we had peanut butter. Sep 01 02:23 PM
    • Transocean: An Opportunity in Falling Oil [view article]
      Are RIG contracts at fixed rates or do some of them, if not all, call for lower rates if oil prices fall? Aug 19 09:52 AM
    • Study: U.S. Has 118 Year Supply of Natural Gas [view article]
      Good point about exponential projections. Plus you never get 100% of it out of the ground. But even if we only have 30 years at exponential growth, that's still a LOT of gas, plus its fairly clean and all-American. Still could be a game changer it seems to me. Aug 11 05:05 PM
    • Oil Demand Should Continue to Fall [view article]
      The big drop in oil demand in the late '70's, early '80's was because utilities nearly eliminated their use of oil to generate electricity in reaction to the Arab embargoes. Oil used to provide somewhere around 50% of electricity; it's not 3%. That is a one time change that cannot be repeated obviously. The only other big savings potential is in fueling personal vehicles and possibly trucks. That is the issue at hand today. It may happen, but will take a long time. Don't expect the change to be anywhere near as dramatic as the earlier decline. Aug 10 06:50 PM
    • Slow Start for Lithium-ion Hybrids [view article]
      It's interesting that we have one vote for NiMH, one for lithium-ion, and two for capacitors. My point was that technological developments will be determinative in terms of when l-i becomes dominent, which should be a fairly non-controversial comment - true by definition. Same would hold for the possibility of capacitors. Maybe they both work for different markets. The only controversial thing in what I wrote - and the only reason to write it in the first place - is that the onset of the l-i age of motoring may not be quite as fast as all the car companies' announcements would suggest. Note that SQM's capital budget puts lithium in 3rd priority and only expands that capacity by 25%. Seems like SQM also thinks there is some time before a huge order inflow happens.

      Incidentally, I love SQM's product line. But the stock doesn't seem cheap at somewhere around 25 -30 times projected earnings.       Jul 31 04:05 PM
    • RBC Upgrades Canadian Natural Resources; Downgrades Nexen [view article]
      RE: Nexen - I would not sell any oil sands stock until well after the SEC changes its reserve accounting rules. That change could cause massive investments by the major oil companies in whatever oil sands equities can be bought. Jul 11 11:44 AM
    • Upside to Oil Stocks? [view article]
      To Eric Fox: your point is directed to the right subject but is far from complete. The countries that are increasing their oil useage include, in addition to China: India, the rest of the Far East, Russia, Mexico, virtually all of South America, and most importantly the Middle East. I'd love to give you a number for the sum total of demand increases in those countries but I don't have it. Can someone else provide that number? My SWAG on it would be somewhere around 1.5 mb/d per year. OECD countries, on the other hand use about 45 mb/d and might see a decline of about 1% in use due to higher costs, which would be 450 kb/d. Jun 26 09:14 AM
    • Keeping Alternate Energy In Perspective [view article]
      First, the problem is not where energy comes from. The problem is that we use petroleum to power transportation and we much transition that to electicity.

      Second, the greatest new source of savings in electricity in the short term is conservation. For example, if we changed out all the light bulbs to CFL's or, better, LED's (which are not quite here yet on a competitive price basis but soon will be), we could save about 15% of all the electricity now used. That is huge.

      Third, it's been estimated that we could power some 80% of cars with electricity just by using hybrid efficiencies and, more important, by refueling during nightime off-peak load periods when there is plenty of spare electrical capacity.

      The focus on sources of energy is not getting us anywhere. We need to focus on transforming our transportation system to electricity. In my humble opinion, of course.       Jun 24 09:41 AM
    • Saudi Oil Meeting Scenarios [view article]
      Please inform me, sir. I'm always interested in learning, not so interested in name calling. Jun 17 10:09 AM
    • Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out [view article]
      That said, I'd be surprised if oil did not encounter a serious correction at some point this year. It's overdue. May 26 11:15 AM
    • Crude Oil Prices: Bears Will Soon Win Out [view article]
      The family of anyone who thinks oil is infinite and renewable should not let him play with real money. May 26 11:11 AM
    • Has Speculation Affected Oil Demand? [view article]
      I think we need to distinguish between a bubble and a pullback from a too-rapid increase. Looking out five years, this will not be not a bubble if oil supplies collapse within that time frame as some analysts who have studied global production in detail maintain. On the other hand, current prices may be ahead of themselves and we could get a pull back to $100 or so. That would not change the long term picture. May 23 10:43 AM
    • High Steel Prices: A Preview of Peak Oil [view article]
      CJ: I'm more optimistic on alternative transport because solar thermal, PV, wave and other renewable sources for electricity are fast becoming economic and practical. Link those to an electric vehicle and, boom, you get an alternative transport system. You probably are familiar with this model as promoted by A Better Place (www.projectbetterplace.../) and you probably know that both Israel and Denmark have adopted it as national policy. While those countries have certain advantages in implimenting it, eventually it can be used virtually everywhere I think. But it first takes the intelligence, determination, and expertise of a government to make it work. Jim May 16 10:55 PM
    • Why Exxon Still Denies Peak Oil [view article]
      Guilty as charged on public schools; thanks for the spelling catch. I'll make a different mistake next time. But on the subject of production contracts between IOC's and particularly, less developed oil rich countries, the sort of contract I described is reported to be common by Matt Simmons and was specifically referenced in the news reports on Exxon's recent earnings. May 03 09:09 AM
    • Canadian Oil Sands Releases Bittersweet 1Q Earnings [view article]
      The UBS analysis illustrates the uncomfortable box all Street analysts are contained in. They simply cannot look down the road to a realistic assessment of the price of oil. There will be severe oil shortages in two or three years according to all serious non-industry analysts and the price of oil will be substantially higher. That is the reason to own Canadian Oil Sands, not it's current distribution or even a $1.25 dividend that could come next year. I recently posted a very different view of the COS announcement on my site, energyinvestmentstrate.... Apr 30 11:51 AM
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