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SpinyNorman

SpinyNorman
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  • A Seriously Siri-Less Apple [View article]
    Nuance provides the (increasingly commoditized, and replaceable) voice recognition component that Apple uses for Siri, not the actual Siri engine itself (a spin-off from SRI - "siri", get it?) which Apple bought and owns.

    If you don't know the difference between voice recognition and Siri, then do everyone a favor and stop writing about it.
    Oct 1, 2014. 08:32 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    Well, for the record, here is what the other analysts were saying:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    How can you, with a straight face, compare yourself to someone like Goldman's Brian Lee "IF APPLE LAUNCHES IN Q3, SAPPHIRE i6's ARE UNLIKELY" or UBS's Steven Chin "Sapphire on MAX of just 16.2 million i6's in 2014. Plus 5.5 million iWatches.". And these were some of the MOST bullish of the bunch, topped only by Dougherty with their $29 price target.

    And then there was you.

    Matt Margolis ‏@Sapphirecover24 [10:34 PM - 8 Sep 2014]
    @jeffreycpacfa @codytrades those analysts will need a big towel to wipe the egg of their face

    Evidently you didn't think of yourself as part of the pack then, even if it's convenient to spin it that way today.

    That's what bugs me about you - not that you were wrong, or that I blame you for my own decisions, but your lack of humility after having screwed it up so royally!
    Sep 23, 2014. 11:09 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    That's a great Livermore quote!

    If you havn't already read it, I'd highly recommend the Livermore biography "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". A great read, and a lot to be learned from it too.
    Sep 23, 2014. 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    C'mon, Matt. A little contrition is called for, not to mention an apology for the many folk you hyped into losing a lot of money on GTAT.

    You were *WAY* *WAY* more aggressive in your claims than anyone else out there. Everyone else was little to no sapphire on iPhone 6, but you insisted it would be on both models and boasted of "crushing" (your word) people like Ming Chi Kuo who claimed what turned out to be the truth.
    Sep 23, 2014. 08:35 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    "I'm now viewing the plant as a widget (sapphire) producing facility and as long as GT can produce high quality sapphire consistently I'm not concerned where it goes initially."

    Well, the only happy outcome for GTAT shareholders is if Apple buys all GTAT can make. The market isn't big enough to absorb it if Apple doesn't buy, and GTAT have indicated risk of negative margins if the factory isn't run at full capacity.

    I think your complacency over where the sapphire is going is dangerous. Apple isn't contractually obliged to buy anything from GTAT, so there better be a compelling reason! The danger is that the original reason for Apple to buy Mesa-quantities of sapphire for the next year is no longer there (this is your thesis, right? - sapphire was planned for iPhone 6 on 9/9, but missed), and we're now *hoping* that Apple will throw GTAT a lifeline (at $1B cost to themselves - buy a years supply of sapphire), rather than let them flounder until Apple needs the sapphire on the NEXT iPhone iteration. Apple's not going to let GTAT go bankrupt, but I wouldn't bet on a $1B Apple handout to make GTAT shareholders happy.

    The rosy scenario for GTAT would be that Apple's original plans are intact, there never was a plan to use sapphire on the iPhone 6, and we don't need to go looking for new reasons why Apple is going to buy all GTAT can make. Maybe a large stockpile was always part of the plan, and we'll see sapphire on the 6s. Maybe.
    Sep 22, 2014. 01:52 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    Presumably that depends on whether Matt's recent claim that sapphire was intended for the iPhone 6 but missed by a mere few weeks is correct. If Matt was wrong and sapphire was never meant for the iPhone 6 launch, then there's less reason to expect that guidance may have changed (outside of GTAT internal problems, or Apple Watch launch date expectations).

    OTOH, if Matt was right and sapphire WAS expected to make it for 9/9, then there's obviously the major problem of GTAT now having an iPhone-cover sized capacity, no iPhone-cover sales, and no minimum purchase guarantees from Apple.
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And InvenSense Are Prepping For Tremendous Sales Growth Over The Next 12 Months [View article]
    Matt,
    After the non-appearance of sapphire on the iPhone 6, you put out an article claiming that sapphire had been planned for 9/9 but missed the launch by a few weeks. Do you still stand by that claim, and if so why aren't you now addressing the impact of this as a factor going forwards?
    Sep 22, 2014. 11:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is The Street Missing Forest For The Trees? [View article]
    A well reasoned and sober analysis. I think you've probably got most of it right.

    The two biggest doubts in my mind at this point are:

    1) If Apple/GTAT were ramping for hoped-for sapphire use on the iPhone 6, but that may now be pushed out to the "6s" in fall 2015, what happens to the excess capacity in the meantime? Once the 4th payment criteria has been met, does GTAT dial back production until needed (at what cost to margins? - managment has indicated they may be negative if not running at full capacity), or if not is it realistic to suppose that Apple will buy all they can make (a prior GTAT management assertion) despite such stockpiling not having been part of the original plan?

    2) There are reports that, in the wake of the non-appearance of sapphire on the iPhone 6, Chinese sapphire producers (preparing to meet the needs of copycat smartphone manufacturers?) are pulling their horns in. If this is true, what does it mean for the equipment sales that are now a much more important part of GTAT's Q4 guided revenues?

    Departing from your analysis, another possibility is that Apple never planned for sapphire on the iPhone 6 (at 9/9 launch) at all, and that (other than the unsurprising ramp-up issues GTAT experienced) Apple's sapphire usage plans (whatever they may be) are therefore much more on track, and there is no problem of temporary overcapacity at Mesa because it is ramping as planned.

    You omit to mention in your article that GTAT has announced a "business update" and conference call for the week of Sept 29th, which hopefully will provide some further clarity as to the whether plans with Apple are on track or whether there has been any significant change since revised guidance was given.
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    It's a well kept secret who's the manufacturer of Ion-X glass regardless of whether it's Ashai, Corning, or someone else, but calling it the "best kept secret in the history of the stock market" is a bit over the top! From stock reaction there's no more indication of it being Corning than Ashai.

    In terms of hard evidence we've got independent tests showing Dragontrail tougher than GG, MKBHD's video of an assumed Ion-X screen cover apparently tougher than GG, Corning's description of GG4 focusing on anti-glare and aanti-microbial properties...

    In there's an investable opportunity in Ion-X glass, if/when someone figures out who's making it, I'm interested. Right now it seems no-one knows, but at least there are clues it may be Ashai rather than Corning. Even the name Ion-X vs Dragontrail-X might be a clue (yes, I know X just stands for eXchange, which could equally well refer to GG).
    Sep 11, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Gorilla Glass Retains Its Dominance Over GT Advanced Technologies' Sapphire [View article]
    There was no mention by Apple of iPhone 6 using Gorilla Glass, nor any indication of it being any Corning product that I can see.

    Apple referred to the glass as "Ion-X Glass", and described it as an aluminosilicate glass strengthened by (light replaced by heavy) ion exchange. By description Gorilla Glass would fit the bill, BUT so would Ashai Glass's Dragontrail-X glass.

    What makes me think this is not Gorilla Glass is:

    1) Corning's CEO appeared on CNBC yesterday morning (day of iPhone 6 launch) and appeared downright uncomfortable and nervous. He appeared to be in damage control mode badmouthing sapphire rather than celebrating a closely held secret about to be revealed.

    2) iPhone 6 screen covers (which we now know to be made of Ion-X Glass) leaked prior to launch, with one being tested on YouTube by Marques Brownlee - you've presumably seen these famous videos, one with the knife stabbing and extreme bending tests, then a second with emery & garnet sandpaper tests compared to a (Gorilla Glass) iPhone 5. The glass performed VERY well, and was notably much more scratch resistant than the Gorilla Glass phone as well as appearing way stiffer (harder to bend, and shatter resistant) than another Gorilla Glass test video

    3) Dragontrail Glass has been tested to be tougher than Gorilla Glass, and would seem a natural choice if Apple were looking for a "plan B" fallback to sapphire. By giving it a name of "Ion-X Glass" and describing the ion exchange process they seem to be touting it as something new and improved over what they've previously used (Gorilla Glass, but never explicity named).

    The market seems to agree, seeing as while GTAT sold off, there was no rally in GLW.
    Sep 10, 2014. 09:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And The Conglomerate Discount [View article]
    GTATs statements on 2014 guidance, 24x7 operation and ramp complete early 2015 may all be entirely true (2014 guidance heavy on sapphire equipment, with some Watch sapphire). One possibility is sapphire was only intended to "cascade" (Mesa project name) onto iPhone in 2015 (6s), and Apple want to build a large stockpile before then (hence Mesa ramping as hard as possible, despite no sapphire iPhone until 6s in fall 2015).

    Anyways, I'm out for now. May get back in if/when there's more clarity on what's going on.
    Sep 10, 2014. 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: What Is The Value Of The SiC Business? [View article]
    There are two parts to Hyperion - the core machine itself, which is a high energy ion/proton source, and the various current/future "end stations" one may add to it for presenting materials for exfoliation.

    The ion/proton source itself has medical (BNCT) and military (undisclosed) applications as well as exfoliation.

    The rotary end station you see on YouTube videos, GTAT says, will be used for Silicon (Solar cells), but for Sapphire they are developing a new end station (likely to feed into a processing pipeline for lamination/etc, I suspect).

    GTAT have stated that Hyperion thruput is limited by the end station (i.e how fast you can present the material for exfoliation), not the ion implantation time, and the Sapphire end station is likely to have much greater throughput given the high-volume markets it will be targeting.
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Investor Guide To Apple's iPhone 6 Unveiling Event [View article]
    GTAT is operating the Mesa factory 24x7 per CEOs comments. They received hundreds of tons of Alumina last month per shipping records. They'd not be doing this if they were still in pilot/ramp-up mode for a year-away 2015 iPhone 6 refresh (6s?). There's going to be sapphire today, and a lot of it. Anyways, only a few more trading hours to go before the big reveal! Go GTAT!
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Investor Guide To Apple's iPhone 6 Unveiling Event [View article]
    I agree other than to note that there may well be a "6c" at some point (maybe even tomorrow?) that presumably would retain the cheaper plastic + gorilla glass build of the 5c.
    Sep 8, 2014. 05:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies And The Conglomerate Discount [View article]
    From Q2 earnings call q&A :

    Tom Gutierrez - President and CEO

    I think it makes sense to sort of put it in context and then may go to the question itself and I think to put the costs in context which are rather substantial, you have to sort of step back and think about what we are doing here. This is a 1.4 million square foot facility, as I said we have taken it from a shell to fully operating entity. There was a point in time when we had 1,200 construction workers rolling around through the facility, massive power and water and other infrastructure being put in. We have hired hundreds of workers that have had to be absorbed, trained into a four shift, 24x7 operation. We feel that entity with over a 1 million square feet of production in fab equipment that’s had to installed, got up to speed, new processes, fine tuning, the amount of consumables that we take on our rather, rather substantial and we have had to sort of put that supply chain in place and ramp it up.
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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