David Oliver_'s Comments David Oliver_'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/148/comments Strong Work Ethic at BYD, Maker of Electric Cars http://seekingalpha.com/article/137043-strong-work-ethic-at-byd-maker-of-electric-cars?source=feed#comment-500400 500400
Try doing a Google search for: foxconn byd

"I have not read about any such patent infringement. Have you seen any information online?"]]>
Tue, 12 May 2009 10:51:32 -0400
Try doing a Google search for: foxconn byd

"I have not read about any such patent infringement. Have you seen any information online?"]]>
Strong Work Ethic at BYD, Maker of Electric Cars http://seekingalpha.com/article/137043-strong-work-ethic-at-byd-maker-of-electric-cars?source=feed#comment-500162 500162
However I have heard the story so many times about the Chinese entrepreneur who works 24 x 7 and how wonderful his company is ... most of the time its bulls*%t targeted at people who want to believe it.

China may have 5m graduates a year but many of them are unemployed because they don't have skills useful in the real world. Don't assume that the Chinese definition of engineer is the same as one in the west. My guess is that if you paid an unannounced visit to BYD it wouldn't be quite the hive of activity you were expecting. More likely people sleeping at their desks, something quite common in a lot of Chinese companies.

From what I have read BYD has done a good job of copying and reverse engineering existing technologies. Whether they have the ability to go to the next level and be innovative remains to be seen.

]]>
Tue, 12 May 2009 09:01:40 -0400
However I have heard the story so many times about the Chinese entrepreneur who works 24 x 7 and how wonderful his company is ... most of the time its bulls*%t targeted at people who want to believe it.

China may have 5m graduates a year but many of them are unemployed because they don't have skills useful in the real world. Don't assume that the Chinese definition of engineer is the same as one in the west. My guess is that if you paid an unannounced visit to BYD it wouldn't be quite the hive of activity you were expecting. More likely people sleeping at their desks, something quite common in a lot of Chinese companies.

From what I have read BYD has done a good job of copying and reverse engineering existing technologies. Whether they have the ability to go to the next level and be innovative remains to be seen.

]]>
Berkshire's Munger Backs BYD’s Revolutionary e6 Electric Car http://seekingalpha.com/article/135577-berkshire-s-munger-backs-byds-revolutionary-e6-electric-car?source=feed#comment-493577 493577
chinastakes.com/Articl...]]>
Thu, 07 May 2009 09:38:48 -0400
chinastakes.com/Articl...]]>
Everyone Is Working Hard to Increase Global Trade Imbalances http://seekingalpha.com/article/112640-everyone-is-working-hard-to-increase-global-trade-imbalances?source=feed#comment-341908 341908
Lowering VAT would help stimulate consumption, however import duties for consumer products will probably not be lowered in any meaningful way. Even with a huge trade surplus I doubt if the government could bear to see people buying more "foreign" goods. ]]>
Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:02:16 -0500
Lowering VAT would help stimulate consumption, however import duties for consumer products will probably not be lowered in any meaningful way. Even with a huge trade surplus I doubt if the government could bear to see people buying more "foreign" goods. ]]>
Concerns and Opportunities in Focus Media Group http://seekingalpha.com/article/106231-concerns-and-opportunities-in-focus-media-group?source=feed#comment-307486 307486 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 19:32:15 -0500 New Rules for Chinese Stock Market Investors http://seekingalpha.com/article/97695-new-rules-for-chinese-stock-market-investors?source=feed#comment-267989 267989 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:27:01 -0400 Synutra Goes Beyond Government Orders in Infant Formula Recall http://seekingalpha.com/article/95885-synutra-goes-beyond-government-orders-in-infant-formula-recall?source=feed#comment-257459 257459 ]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 19:30:54 -0400 ]]> No Rest for the Chinese Stock Market http://seekingalpha.com/article/95388-no-rest-for-the-chinese-stock-market?source=feed#comment-254921 254921 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:12:32 -0400 Anecdotal Evidence of Risks in China's Banking System http://seekingalpha.com/article/83228-anecdotal-evidence-of-risks-in-china-s-banking-system?source=feed#comment-195909 195909 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:07:40 -0400 China: Inflation or Stagnation? http://seekingalpha.com/article/82874-china-inflation-or-stagnation?source=feed#comment-193789 193789
Whatever the official inflation figures show the fact is that life is getting more expensive in China, especially for foreigners as the price of imported food products has jumped 50% or more in some cases. Whether that is inflationary pressure, increased import duties or simple price gouging is hard to tell. ]]>
Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:14:27 -0400
Whatever the official inflation figures show the fact is that life is getting more expensive in China, especially for foreigners as the price of imported food products has jumped 50% or more in some cases. Whether that is inflationary pressure, increased import duties or simple price gouging is hard to tell. ]]>
Think U.S. Is Volatile? Check Out Shanghai http://seekingalpha.com/article/70715-think-u-s-is-volatile-check-out-shanghai?source=feed#comment-134897 134897
No one seems to have told my Chinese mother in law who is headed for the exit if there is enough of an upswing for her to get her money back.]]>
Tue, 01 Apr 2008 20:56:35 -0400
No one seems to have told my Chinese mother in law who is headed for the exit if there is enough of an upswing for her to get her money back.]]>
Is China's Stock Market Nearing a Bottom? http://seekingalpha.com/article/70539-is-china-s-stock-market-nearing-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-134350 134350 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:16:39 -0400 A Bull In China: Jim Rogers' Latest Book on China's Growing Importance http://seekingalpha.com/article/63527-a-bull-in-china-jim-rogers-latest-book-on-china-s-growing-importance?source=feed#comment-115015 115015

New market proves difficult to corner

By Jamil Anderlini

Published: January 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: January 10 2008 02:00

On this Chinese version of the board game Monopoly . . . it's not a roll of the dice, but a corner on the best information, that will help you pass 'Go'," celebrity investor Jim Rogers asserts in his new book about investment in China.

Rogers is known for helping George Soros establish the Quantum Fund in the 1970s, for writing books such as Investment Biker and Hot Commodities and for predicting the bottoming-out and recovery of the Chinese stock market. Unfortunately, in this book, Rogers does not provide "a corner on the best information".

The title - A Bull in China - is somewhat misleading to start with, since Rogers upped sticks from the US to Singapore, rather than China. When I asked him recently why, if he is so bullish on the country, he doesn't live here, he replied that his family had planned to live in Shanghai until the shocking air pollution made them decide on far-flung Singapore instead.

The book reads like a combination of personal memoir, stock pick listings and historical explanation of the Chinese economic miracle. The style is breezy and intended to entertain but at times gets bogged down in trying to explain the complexities of the Chinese stock market.

The most interesting parts are the author's personal recollections of his first visit to China in the mid-1980s. Rogers provides a great description of buying a single share in a bank over the counter in Shanghai in 1986 before the Chinese stock markets had even been set up. He also describes trips on his motorbike across the country when many roads turned to sand or were washed away by floods.

Sadly, such anecdotes make up a small part of the book.

The underlying hypothesis is indisputable - that China will continue to grow and there will be lots of good investment opportunities in a range of industries - but this revelation comes two and a half years into a bull run in the Chinese stock market that has seen the benchmark index jump six-fold.

During a recent publicity tour Rogers made headlines by announcing that he was selling every US dollar asset he owned and buying China's renminbi assets. But when I asked what exactly he was buying he was less forthcoming. He conceded that prices in the Chinese real estate and stock markets were reaching bubble levels and no one should buy them now, but said he was not making direct investments in factories or unlisted local companies. Pressed a bit harder, he correctly pointed out that any foreigner can open a bank account in China and he was buying cash.

The renminbi is still not a freely convertible currency and, although it used to be much easier to buy renminbi than to exchange it for foreign currencies, in early 2007 the government ordered Chinese banks to restrict individuals' annual purchases of renminbi to the equivalent of $50,000, the same amount that can be changed into foreign currencies each year.

China has a thriving black market and extensive underground banking system but Rogers assured me he has not resorted to illegal means to buy renminbi. As a significant institutional investor, Rogers may be able to structure some sort of offshore, renminbi-based non-deliverable forward contracts with an investment bank but that is hardly an option available for individual investors wanting to get a piece of China.

At times, this book reads like a collection of analyst research notes with each section followed by an incomplete list of Chinese companies with stock codes and a quick blurb. Quite a few of the highlighted companies are domestically listed "A-shares", which individual foreign investors are not yet allowed to buy. At other times, the book reads like a history of China's capital markets. But much of the information is out of date and in some places inaccurate or misleading.

For instance, his explanation of the confusing Chinese stock market contains some key errors, such as an assertion that the proportion of shares in the market owned by the government dropped from 78 per cent in 2002 to less than 50 per cent by mid-2006. In fact, the state directly owned more like 50 per cent of all shares in 2002 and the proportion of state ownership in the market has risen since then following a spate of big state-owned enterprise listings.

To his credit, Rogers clearly believes in the China story he is selling in this book. But it doesn't take a financial wizard to be positive on the country's long term prospects and with the proliferation of books on offer from other old China hands there is little need to bother with this list of stock picks.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008]]>
Thu, 07 Feb 2008 06:06:22 -0500

New market proves difficult to corner

By Jamil Anderlini

Published: January 10 2008 02:00 | Last updated: January 10 2008 02:00

On this Chinese version of the board game Monopoly . . . it's not a roll of the dice, but a corner on the best information, that will help you pass 'Go'," celebrity investor Jim Rogers asserts in his new book about investment in China.

Rogers is known for helping George Soros establish the Quantum Fund in the 1970s, for writing books such as Investment Biker and Hot Commodities and for predicting the bottoming-out and recovery of the Chinese stock market. Unfortunately, in this book, Rogers does not provide "a corner on the best information".

The title - A Bull in China - is somewhat misleading to start with, since Rogers upped sticks from the US to Singapore, rather than China. When I asked him recently why, if he is so bullish on the country, he doesn't live here, he replied that his family had planned to live in Shanghai until the shocking air pollution made them decide on far-flung Singapore instead.

The book reads like a combination of personal memoir, stock pick listings and historical explanation of the Chinese economic miracle. The style is breezy and intended to entertain but at times gets bogged down in trying to explain the complexities of the Chinese stock market.

The most interesting parts are the author's personal recollections of his first visit to China in the mid-1980s. Rogers provides a great description of buying a single share in a bank over the counter in Shanghai in 1986 before the Chinese stock markets had even been set up. He also describes trips on his motorbike across the country when many roads turned to sand or were washed away by floods.

Sadly, such anecdotes make up a small part of the book.

The underlying hypothesis is indisputable - that China will continue to grow and there will be lots of good investment opportunities in a range of industries - but this revelation comes two and a half years into a bull run in the Chinese stock market that has seen the benchmark index jump six-fold.

During a recent publicity tour Rogers made headlines by announcing that he was selling every US dollar asset he owned and buying China's renminbi assets. But when I asked what exactly he was buying he was less forthcoming. He conceded that prices in the Chinese real estate and stock markets were reaching bubble levels and no one should buy them now, but said he was not making direct investments in factories or unlisted local companies. Pressed a bit harder, he correctly pointed out that any foreigner can open a bank account in China and he was buying cash.

The renminbi is still not a freely convertible currency and, although it used to be much easier to buy renminbi than to exchange it for foreign currencies, in early 2007 the government ordered Chinese banks to restrict individuals' annual purchases of renminbi to the equivalent of $50,000, the same amount that can be changed into foreign currencies each year.

China has a thriving black market and extensive underground banking system but Rogers assured me he has not resorted to illegal means to buy renminbi. As a significant institutional investor, Rogers may be able to structure some sort of offshore, renminbi-based non-deliverable forward contracts with an investment bank but that is hardly an option available for individual investors wanting to get a piece of China.

At times, this book reads like a collection of analyst research notes with each section followed by an incomplete list of Chinese companies with stock codes and a quick blurb. Quite a few of the highlighted companies are domestically listed "A-shares", which individual foreign investors are not yet allowed to buy. At other times, the book reads like a history of China's capital markets. But much of the information is out of date and in some places inaccurate or misleading.

For instance, his explanation of the confusing Chinese stock market contains some key errors, such as an assertion that the proportion of shares in the market owned by the government dropped from 78 per cent in 2002 to less than 50 per cent by mid-2006. In fact, the state directly owned more like 50 per cent of all shares in 2002 and the proportion of state ownership in the market has risen since then following a spate of big state-owned enterprise listings.

To his credit, Rogers clearly believes in the China story he is selling in this book. But it doesn't take a financial wizard to be positive on the country's long term prospects and with the proliferation of books on offer from other old China hands there is little need to bother with this list of stock picks.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008]]>
Bullish on China Digital TV http://seekingalpha.com/article/59975-bullish-on-china-digital-tv?source=feed#comment-110065 110065 Sun, 13 Jan 2008 20:59:29 -0500 China Digital TV Holding Co. Enters the Bargain Bin http://seekingalpha.com/article/56489-china-digital-tv-holding-co-enters-the-bargain-bin?source=feed#comment-108483 108483 cmp.hku.hk/2008/01/03/.../]]> Sun, 06 Jan 2008 05:51:05 -0500 cmp.hku.hk/2008/01/03/.../]]> Giant Interactive: A Primer in Virtual Currency http://seekingalpha.com/article/58707-giant-interactive-a-primer-in-virtual-currency?source=feed#comment-107592 107592
danwei.org/electronic_... ]]>
Mon, 31 Dec 2007 22:17:11 -0500
danwei.org/electronic_... ]]>
Giant Interactive Group: Great Potential in Play http://seekingalpha.com/article/52824-giant-interactive-group-great-potential-in-play?source=feed#comment-100953 100953 Mon, 05 Nov 2007 09:02:58 -0500 Giant Interactive Group: Great Potential in Play http://seekingalpha.com/article/52824-giant-interactive-group-great-potential-in-play?source=feed#comment-100951 100951 Mon, 05 Nov 2007 08:48:04 -0500 Giant Interactive Group: Great Potential in Play http://seekingalpha.com/article/52824-giant-interactive-group-great-potential-in-play?source=feed#comment-100950 100950 Mon, 05 Nov 2007 08:48:04 -0500 Webzen: Undervalued Asian Name? http://seekingalpha.com/article/31674-webzen-undervalued-asian-name?source=feed#comment-83861 83861
I don't think it is even scheduled to launch in Korea until 2008 so it won't be in China until after that.]]>
Tue, 10 Apr 2007 09:25:55 -0400
I don't think it is even scheduled to launch in Korea until 2008 so it won't be in China until after that.]]>
Ten Steps Microsoft Should Take To Jumpstart Vista http://seekingalpha.com/article/31169-ten-steps-microsoft-should-take-to-jumpstart-vista?source=feed#comment-83440 83440
12. Don't make annoying, seemingly pointless changes just so it looks different from XP - such as renaming common tasks in the Control Panel and changing the file directory structure. This means that it takes your users much longer to get used to Vista.]]>
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 06:39:45 -0400
12. Don't make annoying, seemingly pointless changes just so it looks different from XP - such as renaming common tasks in the Control Panel and changing the file directory structure. This means that it takes your users much longer to get used to Vista.]]>
China's Volatile Gaming Industry http://seekingalpha.com/article/23516-china-s-volatile-gaming-industry?source=feed#comment-79688 79688
I have been involved in the Chinese games industry for a number of years and talk regularly to senior executives from many of these companies, including Shanda.

Paul,

I agree that overall the games market in China will continue to grow quickly. The point is that the fortunes of the early leaders - Shanda, Netease and The9 - will remain volatile as new competitors and new games enter the market, and games based on the "play for free, pay for items" model gain traction.]]>
Sat, 06 Jan 2007 21:23:53 -0500
I have been involved in the Chinese games industry for a number of years and talk regularly to senior executives from many of these companies, including Shanda.

Paul,

I agree that overall the games market in China will continue to grow quickly. The point is that the fortunes of the early leaders - Shanda, Netease and The9 - will remain volatile as new competitors and new games enter the market, and games based on the "play for free, pay for items" model gain traction.]]>
Investing In China's Online Gaming Sector http://seekingalpha.com/article/23375-investing-in-china-s-online-gaming-sector?source=feed#comment-79618 79618
You bring up some good points. Having been actively involved in the Chinese games industry I would like to add some further comments.

1. In addition to the major players you mention other publicly listed companies that deserve a mention are Tencent, the leader in the casual games space with its QQ Game platform, and CDC Games, who have been quite successful operating "Yulgang" through their 17game subsidiary. They also recently announced that they have licensed the MMOG, "Lord of the Rings" (LOTR), which should launch in China later in 2007 or early 2008.

2. One of the reasons why the western publishers such as EA struggle in China is that due to regulatory issues they can't directly publish online games so they need to work with a local partner. Korean companies such as NC Soft who have licensed numerous games to Chinese companies are worth looking at. The game consoles (Xbox, PS3 etc) has too many issues at this point (regulatory, piracy, business model) so the market will continue to be PC-game dominated for the forseeable future.

3. A big issue for the Chinese games industry is the shortage of quality game developers, especially game designers, and low level of game developer education. While Netease has been successful at developing their own 2D/ 2.5D titles no Chinese conmpany has managed to develop a quality 3D title. Imitation still rules over innovation with many copycat games being developed.

4. I would expect all of the Chinese game companies, including Netease, to license foreign titles in the future. This is partly due to the poor state of the local game development industry as mentioned above, and also because WoW has shown that a lot of money can be made from licensing a blockbuster title even if royalties have to be paid out to a foreign party. Due to the risk averse nature of many of these companies they will try to secure western titles that have reached open beta testing or have already launched in the west, or are being developed by famous developers who already have a track record. While this lowers their risk it also means that they will likely have to pay higher licensing and royalties for these titles.

5. Expect to see more games operated on a "play for free, pay for items" model compared to the traditional subscription model. The Korean games industry has already moved in this direction and Shanda and CDC Games/ 17game have shown that it is a viable model in China.

As you mention it is likely that all of these stocks will remain voltile due to the nature of the games business. Netease has some strong positives including their management team and past success at game development, however a big test for them will be whether their upcoming 3D title, Tianxia II, is a commercial success. If not then they don't have much else in the pipeline and licensing will become a priority.

The9 has had a good run with WoW and has licensed numerous upcoming titles but it is not obvious to me how a company that has essentially been operating one game could expect to be successfully operating up to six games within the next 18-24 months. I suspect that their strategy has more to do with "locking up" as many of these titles as possible - Granada Espada was originally meant to launch at the end of 2004 but still hasn't - by paying a small upfront fee and then only paying the bulk of the licensing fees when/ if they actually launch the game. While this may suit The9 it isn't good for their licensing partners and so I don't see them being the "Chinese partner of choice" for foreign companies as some have stated.

Shanda will likely remain very volatile. Their strategy of licensing 2nd tier titles and using their core competencies e.g. card distribution and marketing ability to promote them aggressively, has not been successful recently. Their inhouse game development efforts have been poor and it is doubtful whether Dungeons & Dragons will even launch commercially as initial feedback has not been good and the game, in my opinion, is not well suited for Chinese gamers. However if they license some good titles and abandon their misguided "Shanda box" strategy then they could perform well. BTW, the game you mentioned is called "Archlord", not "Overlord Land".

Disclosure: I don't own any of these stocks but do have business dealings with some of these companies.]]>
Wed, 03 Jan 2007 23:43:16 -0500
You bring up some good points. Having been actively involved in the Chinese games industry I would like to add some further comments.

1. In addition to the major players you mention other publicly listed companies that deserve a mention are Tencent, the leader in the casual games space with its QQ Game platform, and CDC Games, who have been quite successful operating "Yulgang" through their 17game subsidiary. They also recently announced that they have licensed the MMOG, "Lord of the Rings" (LOTR), which should launch in China later in 2007 or early 2008.

2. One of the reasons why the western publishers such as EA struggle in China is that due to regulatory issues they can't directly publish online games so they need to work with a local partner. Korean companies such as NC Soft who have licensed numerous games to Chinese companies are worth looking at. The game consoles (Xbox, PS3 etc) has too many issues at this point (regulatory, piracy, business model) so the market will continue to be PC-game dominated for the forseeable future.

3. A big issue for the Chinese games industry is the shortage of quality game developers, especially game designers, and low level of game developer education. While Netease has been successful at developing their own 2D/ 2.5D titles no Chinese conmpany has managed to develop a quality 3D title. Imitation still rules over innovation with many copycat games being developed.

4. I would expect all of the Chinese game companies, including Netease, to license foreign titles in the future. This is partly due to the poor state of the local game development industry as mentioned above, and also because WoW has shown that a lot of money can be made from licensing a blockbuster title even if royalties have to be paid out to a foreign party. Due to the risk averse nature of many of these companies they will try to secure western titles that have reached open beta testing or have already launched in the west, or are being developed by famous developers who already have a track record. While this lowers their risk it also means that they will likely have to pay higher licensing and royalties for these titles.

5. Expect to see more games operated on a "play for free, pay for items" model compared to the traditional subscription model. The Korean games industry has already moved in this direction and Shanda and CDC Games/ 17game have shown that it is a viable model in China.

As you mention it is likely that all of these stocks will remain voltile due to the nature of the games business. Netease has some strong positives including their management team and past success at game development, however a big test for them will be whether their upcoming 3D title, Tianxia II, is a commercial success. If not then they don't have much else in the pipeline and licensing will become a priority.

The9 has had a good run with WoW and has licensed numerous upcoming titles but it is not obvious to me how a company that has essentially been operating one game could expect to be successfully operating up to six games within the next 18-24 months. I suspect that their strategy has more to do with "locking up" as many of these titles as possible - Granada Espada was originally meant to launch at the end of 2004 but still hasn't - by paying a small upfront fee and then only paying the bulk of the licensing fees when/ if they actually launch the game. While this may suit The9 it isn't good for their licensing partners and so I don't see them being the "Chinese partner of choice" for foreign companies as some have stated.

Shanda will likely remain very volatile. Their strategy of licensing 2nd tier titles and using their core competencies e.g. card distribution and marketing ability to promote them aggressively, has not been successful recently. Their inhouse game development efforts have been poor and it is doubtful whether Dungeons & Dragons will even launch commercially as initial feedback has not been good and the game, in my opinion, is not well suited for Chinese gamers. However if they license some good titles and abandon their misguided "Shanda box" strategy then they could perform well. BTW, the game you mentioned is called "Archlord", not "Overlord Land".

Disclosure: I don't own any of these stocks but do have business dealings with some of these companies.]]>
Will Competition Save WVAS Providers in China? http://seekingalpha.com/article/13564-will-competition-save-wvas-providers-in-china?source=feed#comment-52933 52933
I am not convinced that the arrival of 3G will make much difference to the current gloomy situation that WVAS providers face. China Mobile will continue to dominate the mobile landscape unless, in an unlikely scenario, they get lumped with a TD-SCDMA license. Whoever gets a TD-SCDMA license is unlikely to be a serious contender in the 3G landscape due to it being a technology that clearly has problems, a lack of economies of scale for handsets and network equipment and the fact that Nokia, Motorola and Samsung etc are not likely to develop leading edge or stylish handsets based on this standard. It will be left to China's numerous handset design houses to come up with mediocre "me too" TD-SCDMA phones.

All of the mobile operators in the new 3G world will continue to be Chinese SOEs and deep down their mentality is "why let someone else make money if we can make it ourselves?" There are many examples of Chinese SOEs working with partners but once they understand the business/ technology then they try to do it themselves. This is what is happening with the independent WVASs now - China Mobile needed them while it couldn't provide the services themselves. Now, as they think they can do more themselves, they will make life harder for the WVASs and eventually try to kick them out altogether or maybe keep a handful of subservient partners.

Is it likely that China Mobile can provide better content compared to the independent MVAS providers? Probably not. Does it matter? No. When you are a monopoly/ duopoly it doesn't really matter whether the consumer gets the best content or service.

The fact is that the MVASs don't have the ability to create distinctive, compelling content and it will be easy enough for China Mobile to deal directly with the MTVs, Viacoms, News Corps, SMGs and CCTVs of the world, especially if mobile TV does become a killer app.]]>
Fri, 14 Jul 2006 22:47:33 -0400
I am not convinced that the arrival of 3G will make much difference to the current gloomy situation that WVAS providers face. China Mobile will continue to dominate the mobile landscape unless, in an unlikely scenario, they get lumped with a TD-SCDMA license. Whoever gets a TD-SCDMA license is unlikely to be a serious contender in the 3G landscape due to it being a technology that clearly has problems, a lack of economies of scale for handsets and network equipment and the fact that Nokia, Motorola and Samsung etc are not likely to develop leading edge or stylish handsets based on this standard. It will be left to China's numerous handset design houses to come up with mediocre "me too" TD-SCDMA phones.

All of the mobile operators in the new 3G world will continue to be Chinese SOEs and deep down their mentality is "why let someone else make money if we can make it ourselves?" There are many examples of Chinese SOEs working with partners but once they understand the business/ technology then they try to do it themselves. This is what is happening with the independent WVASs now - China Mobile needed them while it couldn't provide the services themselves. Now, as they think they can do more themselves, they will make life harder for the WVASs and eventually try to kick them out altogether or maybe keep a handful of subservient partners.

Is it likely that China Mobile can provide better content compared to the independent MVAS providers? Probably not. Does it matter? No. When you are a monopoly/ duopoly it doesn't really matter whether the consumer gets the best content or service.

The fact is that the MVASs don't have the ability to create distinctive, compelling content and it will be easy enough for China Mobile to deal directly with the MTVs, Viacoms, News Corps, SMGs and CCTVs of the world, especially if mobile TV does become a killer app.]]>
BusinessWeek Recommends PacificNet (PACT) http://seekingalpha.com/article/6011-businessweek-recommends-pacificnet-pact?source=feed#comment-6030 6030 Sun, 22 Jan 2006 19:47:33 -0500 China Book Giveaway: Winners and China Stock Recommendations (CNTF, SVA, SINA, ADIY, FMCN) http://seekingalpha.com/article/4856-china-book-giveaway-winners-and-china-stock-recommendations-cntf-sva-sina-adiy-fmcn?source=feed#comment-2923 2923 Tue, 13 Dec 2005 01:46:47 -0500 China Techfaith Wireless Beats By $0.04; Guides Above Consensus; Stock Up 12% in After-Hours Trading (CNTF 3Q05 Earnings) http://seekingalpha.com/article/4281-china-techfaith-wireless-beats-by-0-04-guides-above-consensus-stock-up-12-in-after-hours-trading-cntf-3q05-earnings?source=feed#comment-2006 2006 Thu, 17 Nov 2005 11:45:50 -0500 Sohu on Being Official Internet Content Sponsor for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games (SOHU 3Q05 Conf Call Quotes) http://seekingalpha.com/article/4120-sohu-on-being-official-internet-content-sponsor-for-the-beijing-2008-olympic-games-sohu-3q05-conf-call-quotes?source=feed#comment-1916 1916
BTW, Bokoff is actually BOCOG (Beijing Organizing Committe Olympic Games). It will have cost them a lot to secure the deal but they should be able to find a way to make money out of it as Chinese advertisers are going crazy on Olympic-related advertising in the runup to 2008.]]>
Wed, 09 Nov 2005 12:54:02 -0500
BTW, Bokoff is actually BOCOG (Beijing Organizing Committe Olympic Games). It will have cost them a lot to secure the deal but they should be able to find a way to make money out of it as Chinese advertisers are going crazy on Olympic-related advertising in the runup to 2008.]]>
We're Giving Away 5 Copies of "An Introduction to Project Finance" by Andrew Fight http://seekingalpha.com/article/3700-we-re-giving-away-5-copies-of-an-introduction-to-project-finance-by-andrew-fight?source=feed#comment-1906 1906 Wed, 09 Nov 2005 06:08:58 -0500 Investor Assesses China Techfaith Wireless' Weak Stock Performance (CNTF) http://seekingalpha.com/article/3232-investor-assesses-china-techfaith-wireless-weak-stock-performance-cntf?source=feed#comment-1724 1724 cellon.com They are backed by Intel and Softbank amongst others and are in a very similar business to CNTF, I understand that they had a very rough Q1 but are picking up new business again. If you rely on a handful of customers in this business then losing one or two could be very detrimental.]]> Mon, 03 Oct 2005 03:29:04 -0400 cellon.com They are backed by Intel and Softbank amongst others and are in a very similar business to CNTF, I understand that they had a very rough Q1 but are picking up new business again. If you rely on a handful of customers in this business then losing one or two could be very detrimental.]]>