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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • The Perils Of Pauline And The Power Of Monetary Policy [View article]
    Hello there brown trout. The real question in my mind is, is the long end of the treasury curve a buy in this particular scenario? It's held up well this year but I have my concerns. Your thoughts appreciated.
    Apr 20 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs: Hunter Or Prey? What Market-Maker Appraisals For DJIA Stocks Tell Us About Its Price Prospects [View article]
    Interesting that you mention Goldman's divestiture of its market making operation and closure of Sigma X as gambits designed to show investors that Goldman is no longer predatory. I see them as the first steps towards opening a new chapter of predation that will be centered on these new exchanges, like IEX, of which Goldman is a major backer. It's not about getting rid of HFT and putting that money back in the pockets of pension funds and small investors, it's about getting rid of HFT because, without legislation and "public" backlash, Goldman can't beat them.
    Apr 17 12:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Technicals - 1,300 Broken As Bearish Momentum In Full Force [View article]
    Or better yet, just stand aside. Gold/Silver/miners are just a hot mess right now. I can't see any edge there. Will wait for the dust to settle. And I agree, that settling point will most likely be much lower. I just hope it's sooner than later, would love to be a buyer, in size, before the fireworks begin.
    Apr 17 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Bounce Does Little To Alleviate Concerns [View article]
    "Goes higher" could happen right about now I'd say, for a few days at least, due to oversold conditions.....but I agree that the whole "most hated bull" thing has pretty limited utility at this point, with margin debt recently at all-time highs, and perhaps declining. We'll see.
    Apr 14 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Bounce Does Little To Alleviate Concerns [View article]
    Kind of similar to what we saw the Friday before Russia invaded Crimea, actually.

    But taken in context it could have just been a vicious stop run before a move higher.

    In my case, all bets are off. Good luck everyone!
    Apr 14 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JGBs fail to trade on Monday [View news story]
    "....something touched me deep inside, the day the music died...."

    http://bit.ly/1gyaGPI
    Apr 14 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax: Ignore What The Soothsayers Are Saying, And Buy On The Pullback [View article]
    Google glass is going to die a slow and meandering death, the social backlash here in the bay area, the only place that has more than one or two "glassholes", afaik, has been sharp and swift. And I am not at all unhappy about that. I'd guess that's what has popped this momo's bubble?
    Apr 14 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Leapfrog With Molycorp [View article]
    I'm a little dense and trying to understand the absolute risk potential of selling puts.

    In the case of MCP, if I sell 10 JUN MCP 5$ puts today, @ .60, I get a 600 dollar credit, right? And if MCP closes at 4$ at expiry, I then have to buy 1000 shares of MCP worth 4$, for 5$, right? If I immediately sold those for approx 4k, then how much have I lost? would it be 1000 bucks (the difference between 5 and 4) minus the 600 dollar premium? Or would I also lose the premium in this scenario?
    Apr 9 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    ...except for the fact that a)chinese investors bought a ton of real estate here and may face debt issues back home and b)too many people already bought real estate as an investment and the margins are too low. I sold mine for 250% profit, so I'm not complaining. good luck.
    Apr 2 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    Totally agree with this. Will follow your blog. Good luck.
    Apr 1 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    William, just to play devil's advocate: are buyback rates sustainable in a rising rate environment?
    Apr 1 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    I like your comments, ValueInvestor, the one caveat I would throw out there is, in a completely sideways (or slowly meandering downwards) market, the time value lost on your options will be more costly than the divvys. But of course the potential loss is minimized, so I guess you pick your poison. For my part I really only think about short positions either as hedges or fairly short time-frame stabs (speculation), with 20% short being a max short for me. In general, when I'm cautious, I prefer cash, or bonds. Which, admittedly is tough here. Good luck!
    Apr 1 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    You've got to be kidding. Cam is about as perma-bull as it gets, in my book! And try re-reading the article in your native language. He says it's NOT time to be short here. And I agree. (but like him, I think we're close.....)
    Mar 31 11:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    I suspect that the "crash" is going to look much more like a slow grind down, punctuated by rips higher at counter-intuitive moments. Just my two cents. Good luck.
    Mar 31 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks? [View article]
    ValueInvestor, it's not necessarily pleasure in shorts losing money, but more, if you're long, pleasure in making money, as shorts scramble to cover. It feels good to hold through fear and make money, doesn't it? Similarly, those short the market take pleasure in making money from longs as they panic. It's a zero sum game, no?

    That said, I'm pretty cash-heavy here, making little opportunistic stabs in both directions, with minor success. Seems to be a trader's market. And I can't say I agree with anyone who thinks we're sitting in 1994/5/6/7 here. That's just naive historical bias IMHO. Looks a lot more like 2014 to me. Good luck.
    Mar 31 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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