pollyserial's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1480391/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18892881 18892881 Thu, 16 May 2013 09:26:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1438341/comments?source=feed#comment-18872751 18872751
I'm entirely with you on the fundamentals, though, and just wish I could stop paying attention to them and get fully invested instead of staying almost fully in cash!]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 18:54:09 -0400
I'm entirely with you on the fundamentals, though, and just wish I could stop paying attention to them and get fully invested instead of staying almost fully in cash!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18871991 18871991 Wed, 15 May 2013 18:32:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1437491/comments?source=feed#comment-18866861 18866861 Wed, 15 May 2013 16:34:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1027611?source=feed#comment-18865301 18865301 Wed, 15 May 2013 16:02:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18858781 18858781 Wed, 15 May 2013 13:56:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18854811 18854811 Wed, 15 May 2013 12:36:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432471/comments?source=feed#comment-18816131 18816131 Tue, 14 May 2013 13:18:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18815431 18815431
Your timeframe is pretty short there. The rest of the week may see some risk off IMO, the fed's buying schedule is lighter.

But those with serious skin in the game will wait to see if the fed blinks. If and when they do, we'll know how the market will deal with the end of QE, and not before. You're not going to calm down a raging bull with half-baked rumors, that much is now obvious. Now it's the fed's move.

And, btw, not sure what you mean exactly by 'market' but bonds and gold sure seem to care.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 13:00:17 -0400
Your timeframe is pretty short there. The rest of the week may see some risk off IMO, the fed's buying schedule is lighter.

But those with serious skin in the game will wait to see if the fed blinks. If and when they do, we'll know how the market will deal with the end of QE, and not before. You're not going to calm down a raging bull with half-baked rumors, that much is now obvious. Now it's the fed's move.

And, btw, not sure what you mean exactly by 'market' but bonds and gold sure seem to care.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18770951 18770951 Mon, 13 May 2013 13:38:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427391/comments?source=feed#comment-18744301 18744301 Sun, 12 May 2013 19:56:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18742161 18742161 Sun, 12 May 2013 17:40:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427391/comments?source=feed#comment-18736981 18736981 Sun, 12 May 2013 13:19:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18723241 18723241 Sat, 11 May 2013 22:26:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18723201 18723201 Sat, 11 May 2013 22:24:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18723011 18723011 Sat, 11 May 2013 22:12:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18722811 18722811
I'm of course not claiming to have a crystal ball! There are worrying signs and there are positive signs.

I have also noticed the recent bounce back in the commodity complex. It doesn't seem at all decisive to me. It seems actually to be poised on the edge of a knife right now.....and, full disclosure, I am short GLD.

But at this point in time I am content to largely sit in cash, trade a bit where it seems appropriate, and wait for a clearer sign on long-term direction. My hunch, as I said, is long-term deflation, but I'm not a zealot. Best wishes.
]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 22:06:21 -0400
I'm of course not claiming to have a crystal ball! There are worrying signs and there are positive signs.

I have also noticed the recent bounce back in the commodity complex. It doesn't seem at all decisive to me. It seems actually to be poised on the edge of a knife right now.....and, full disclosure, I am short GLD.

But at this point in time I am content to largely sit in cash, trade a bit where it seems appropriate, and wait for a clearer sign on long-term direction. My hunch, as I said, is long-term deflation, but I'm not a zealot. Best wishes.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18722181 18722181 Sat, 11 May 2013 21:43:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18720181 18720181 Sat, 11 May 2013 20:29:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1426401/comments?source=feed#comment-18720031 18720031 Sat, 11 May 2013 20:19:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1019801?source=feed#comment-18719951 18719951 Sat, 11 May 2013 20:16:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18719921 18719921
My fundamental opinion is that QE has tremendous effect on the markets but there is little flow-through to the 'real' world of inputs and wages and etc.

And yes I agree, if QE ends because the economy is recovering, we are going to the moon. In my opinion, however, QE will end/taper not because the economy is recovering but rather because it becomes increasingly obvious that QE is in fact threatening if not outright stalling the recovery, by encouraging companies to add to their bottom line using financial shenanigans and buybacks, instead of actually growing their businesses and adding to employment.

And, I'm not sure I understand why you think ADP, PAYX and insurers will benefit moving forward: I guess you're firmly in the camp of an inflationary, higher growth future? I hope you're right, of course, but I just don't see it. At any rate thanks as always for an informative viewpoint and best wishes.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 20:14:13 -0400
My fundamental opinion is that QE has tremendous effect on the markets but there is little flow-through to the 'real' world of inputs and wages and etc.

And yes I agree, if QE ends because the economy is recovering, we are going to the moon. In my opinion, however, QE will end/taper not because the economy is recovering but rather because it becomes increasingly obvious that QE is in fact threatening if not outright stalling the recovery, by encouraging companies to add to their bottom line using financial shenanigans and buybacks, instead of actually growing their businesses and adding to employment.

And, I'm not sure I understand why you think ADP, PAYX and insurers will benefit moving forward: I guess you're firmly in the camp of an inflationary, higher growth future? I hope you're right, of course, but I just don't see it. At any rate thanks as always for an informative viewpoint and best wishes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1019921?source=feed#comment-18719621 18719621 Sat, 11 May 2013 19:49:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1421431/comments?source=feed#comment-18718781 18718781 Sat, 11 May 2013 18:52:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1421431/comments?source=feed#comment-18718751 18718751
The chart on SVXY goes back all of two years, which have been some of the best times in history to sell vol. If you do wade in to waters that you don't thoroughly understand, just do it small enough so that you can feel ok about giving money away if it goes down that way. Best wishes.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 18:49:49 -0400
The chart on SVXY goes back all of two years, which have been some of the best times in history to sell vol. If you do wade in to waters that you don't thoroughly understand, just do it small enough so that you can feel ok about giving money away if it goes down that way. Best wishes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1421431/comments?source=feed#comment-18718631 18718631 Sat, 11 May 2013 18:42:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1421431/comments?source=feed#comment-18718451 18718451 Sat, 11 May 2013 18:31:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1421431/comments?source=feed#comment-18718431 18718431
And, I was talking about mental stops. I never put stops in any more......but, this idea that you just sell vol and wait for it to go your way, all-in, strikes me as dangerous.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 18:30:30 -0400
And, I was talking about mental stops. I never put stops in any more......but, this idea that you just sell vol and wait for it to go your way, all-in, strikes me as dangerous.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18718321 18718321 Sat, 11 May 2013 18:25:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425531/comments?source=feed#comment-18718161 18718161 Sat, 11 May 2013 18:20:12 -0400