pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Another Selloff Is Coming  [View article]
    CA: long bond not cooperating with your thesis so far....
    Nov 3, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are So Bearish At These Levels That We're Polar Bearish  [View article]
    "June is the exit" of which trade, kind sir?
    Oct 29, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In This More Than Natural  [View instapost]
    not sure if you mean short stocks or not but will assume you do and, nope, not currently short nor particularly long stocks. but not so sure about the new bull market highs part, either. watching the action here near the 200 day, expecting some waffling around it for a while. we shall see. more interested in treasuries, personally, but sort of waiting for some strength to show up. best wishes.
    Oct 26, 2015. 12:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In This More Than Natural  [View instapost]
    I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. Sounds like asset price inflation and commodity price deflation are going to continue going opposite directions, in your view?

    Which would lead to....commodities lower, rates lower, stocks volatile but up? In a nutshell?
    Oct 25, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    Part of me thinks, maybe the PBOC or even the ECB could turn the needle here, but on the other hand -- if the global difficulty is strong dollars, didn't they just turn up the heat?
    Oct 24, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    !!! Holy cow. 1100 by year end? That's a pretty extreme call! (And the sort of call that makes someone who sat mostly in cash last week, for no good reason, seemingly, feel a bit better, perhaps) I personally was expecting more like some backing and filling in November and maybe as low as 1600? in March/April but.... will definitely keep your thinking in mind as action unfolds.
    Oct 24, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp creditors ask court for Oaktree probe  [View news story]
    I got filled as low as .07 a while back but just a few. I find the whole thing a bit too suspicious. Why the heck would they be trading at .05? Who's selling them at that price and why?
    Oct 24, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp creditors ask court for Oaktree probe  [View news story]
    are you a buyer or just a holder here?
    Oct 24, 2015. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp creditors ask court for Oaktree probe  [View news story]
    It depends what you own/ed. If you owned the secured debt (like me) then my understanding is we will automatically be covered by whatever deal ends up being worked out, but you should do you own research on this. Here I think they are talking about the less senior debt obligations, which apparently are up in the air. If you owned stock I think there's nothing to do.
    Oct 24, 2015. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: $20 Or $70  [View article]
    Or they could have put it in Delorean, because it was a small auto company with a dangerous balance sheet, and they would have lost every penny. IMHO the two companies you mentioned are two of the worst balance sheets in the sector, and only very strong balance sheets are going to survive.
    Oct 24, 2015. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    CA, so I'm understanding that your sense of timing is different than the trout's? Your time frame being more like...first of the year? February? Don't worry, I won't come back and hold you to any missed prediction, I know these things are almost impossible to accurately time, just curious on your sense of it, particularly as I've seen the brown trout talking about November/December for some time now and his reasoning (money supply based) seems sound, if true. I am mostly wanting to avoid getting over-committed to the long bond, too soon. Do recent PBOC/ECB moves change your sense of the dollar's upcoming moves?
    One little thing I find myself noticing is, oil company stocks behaving in some cases very similarly to BAC c. 08/2008. Probably nothing, but kind of interesting if it plays out.
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    For us (or anyone) to become one of the 'economic miracle' economies like Korea was at one point, or Japan, or China, we are going to need very substantial wage growth. We are currently experiencing profound wage stagnation and decline, even with the effects of ZIRP/QE (some would say BECAUSE of the effects of QE).
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    Wow. That comment really surprises me. I have been expecting something more like 2000-02. We shall see, I suppose.....
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 10/1/15  [View instapost]
    So am I to understand that, based on prior articles, you are considering the high volatility period to be over now? Thanks for your ideas, and patient outlook.
    Oct 23, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In This More Than Natural  [View instapost]
    So now expanding again? Does this (or PBOC rate cut) cause you to revise your forecast of a commodity implosion?
    Oct 23, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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