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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Treasurys gain after home price numbers [View news story]
    right, the weather. which is why the housing markets in the west (where we are having an unseasonably sunny winter, with drought conditions) are the ones doing the worst. come on, people!
    Feb 25 11:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    JUD, I agree with you that this secular bull pronouncement is a bit hasty. Let's at least wait and see what happens when we get the inevitable back kiss. Bulls who think we won't retest 1600 at some point strike me as a bit optimistic. But, we'll see. One day at a time.

    Also, I would humbly put forward that the monetary shenanigans of the last decade have made it very difficult to perform reasonable/accurate/us... fundamental analysis. So, trend-following becomes more useful/important. Don't underestimate the trend! Because I think almost every reasonable observer out there would agree that the main reason you have to buy/own stocks the last couple of years is just.....QE. Which quite literally is just, the trend.

    Feb 8 10:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    ...what was that about pain again? Good luck everyone and have a great weekend!
    Feb 7 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Is Wrong About Dividends [View article]
    I am constantly amazed by people's need to be dogmatic. How about, a nice mix?
    Feb 6 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Sensible: Buffet, Graham, (Einhorn?) etc., would say that f you buy a strong company AT A FAIR PRICE, it will do well over time.

    (and if you buy an index fund in an up trending market...just try to sell it before the market turns!)

    Not really wanting to wade into this whole bear market brouhaha, just wanted to add that. Good luck everyone! (let's go bulls!)
    Feb 6 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Not 100% cash, certainly. But, per Buffet: "an option with no expiration date".
    Feb 6 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Who needs an option? Just, the game has red squares too. Not that we need them right this minute. Maybe in a month or two...
    Feb 6 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Agree. For a trade. Brazilian consumer stocks also killing it. GOL.
    Feb 6 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    not yet.
    Feb 6 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    Tack, you say "this recovery of the economy and markets has not been embraced", but, the economy quite simply hasn't recovered, while the markets have. 1.5% growth is not recessionary but it's not the growth of days gone by. This is from someone who, I should say, embraces this rally, all of these rallies actually....but, new secular bull? Nah.
    Feb 6 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    for Argentina? ; )
    but seriously. Eric wasn't saying we're about to have another financial crisis, just that the unnaturally expensive stock market needs to rest a bit. at some point.
    Feb 6 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pain Has Only Just Begun [View article]
    They don't tell you this, but those inverse ETFs have pretty high costs, and decay. NOT for long periods IMHO. Just sell SPY short instead? Or better, buy the long bond. You saw what it did this last month, that was just a warmup.
    Feb 6 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roger Nusbaum Positions For 2014: Starting To Take Defensive Action [View article]
    So what's your take here, tone guru? For my part I am on the sidelines with it, I'm not buying this double bottom. I've been wrong plenty of times before, though.....
    Jan 6 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roger Nusbaum Positions For 2014: Starting To Take Defensive Action [View article]
    A good hedge is not supposed to lose you money, it's supposed to diversify your holdings. OTOH it's totally understandable that a year like 2013 would make people think that US equities (preferably highly shorted, small cap US equities) are the only "real" investment. Good luck with that!
    Jan 6 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roger Nusbaum Positions For 2014: Starting To Take Defensive Action [View article]
    Forgive me, Pinot, but that's just the kind of absurd comment that makes an opportunistic speculator like me get more excited about Gold. As Roger says, everything has its ups and downs.
    Jan 6 12:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
991 Comments
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