pollyserial

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  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    CA, so I'm understanding that your sense of timing is different than the trout's? Your time frame being more like...first of the year? February? Don't worry, I won't come back and hold you to any missed prediction, I know these things are almost impossible to accurately time, just curious on your sense of it, particularly as I've seen the brown trout talking about November/December for some time now and his reasoning (money supply based) seems sound, if true. I am mostly wanting to avoid getting over-committed to the long bond, too soon. Do recent PBOC/ECB moves change your sense of the dollar's upcoming moves?
    One little thing I find myself noticing is, oil company stocks behaving in some cases very similarly to BAC c. 08/2008. Probably nothing, but kind of interesting if it plays out.
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    For us (or anyone) to become one of the 'economic miracle' economies like Korea was at one point, or Japan, or China, we are going to need very substantial wage growth. We are currently experiencing profound wage stagnation and decline, even with the effects of ZIRP/QE (some would say BECAUSE of the effects of QE).
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation Warning: The Next Wave  [View article]
    Wow. That comment really surprises me. I have been expecting something more like 2000-02. We shall see, I suppose.....
    Oct 24, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update For Portfolio Positioning And Management As Of 10/1/15  [View instapost]
    So am I to understand that, based on prior articles, you are considering the high volatility period to be over now? Thanks for your ideas, and patient outlook.
    Oct 23, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In This More Than Natural  [View instapost]
    So now expanding again? Does this (or PBOC rate cut) cause you to revise your forecast of a commodity implosion?
    Oct 23, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Forward Look  [View instapost]
    Hello there, trout....does a changing rate hike curve change your predictions of deflationary pressures? Commodities have sure been on fire since everyone became convinced (since Friday) that no rate hike is coming, ever. Your thoughts?
    Oct 6, 2015. 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Forward Look  [View instapost]
    (Actually, we did get the 8% downswing, didn't we? .....just, during September rather than after September)
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, M2, And Dow Theory All Suggest Big Trouble Ahead For Markets  [View article]
    If there's one thing that worries me more than anything here, it's how bold the doomer-haters have become. Good luck to all.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, M2, And Dow Theory All Suggest Big Trouble Ahead For Markets  [View article]
    Absolutely nothing?
    Jun 22, 2015. 12:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks pull back on Greece news, oil price reversal  [View news story]
    More interesting will be whether or not the ECB is allowed to continue their bond-buying, if tax payers in member nations feel the burn of a Greek default.
    Feb 5, 2015. 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Saudis Didn't Cut Oil Production  [View article]
    I'm guessing, he's dealing with the fact that his crystal ball is broken and so, maybe isn't sure where oil will bottom out.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:53 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap  [View article]
    I mean, the way the re-organization of EGLE was handled. Another recent project of Oaktree. Existing shareholders and to a large extent debt holders were mostly wiped out. Oak tree seems to have made out quite well. Have begun to suspect MCP will follow that script. But I'm not entirely clear on the details.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap  [View article]
    And what do you think longer term, SE? Will Oaktree pull an EGLE here?
    Nov 25, 2014. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap  [View article]
    I hope you mean, price target for covering a short. There won't be any winners here, for quite some time, other than Oaktree, and the insiders. IMHO. I thought this name had a prayer until I saw what happened with EGLE. If there was any agency in our 'government' that regulated securities, they would possibly do something about this stuff but.....ah well. Best of luck.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap  [View article]
    MCP certainly isn't worth fighting the Oaktree algos over. One of these days we'll look up and see it at 20, but it'll be after all existing shareholders have been wiped out. Sleazefest.
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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