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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows [View article]
    Hi Bart, "selling vol" refers to selling volatility, which is the other side of your trade. It seems nearly everyone commenting is more interested in selling volatility than buying it. Which is and should usually be true, as 95% of the time volatility, which UVXY tracks is a losing trade. More like 99% of the time over the last few years.....but, I digress. Typically, professionals sell volatility to people who are nervous, so they can hedge their long positions. Most of the time it's a winning trade, but of course, there are those moments when naked sellers of volatility (which are usually retail emulators of pros rather than real pros, any real pro would sell vol as a spread) get crushed and are never heard from again. Of course, 'never heard from again' even more typically applies to naked buyers of volatility. Which is why I would recommend a much smaller position than you think is reasonable in this product, because there is always that (very slim, I'm sure) chance you are wrong.

    Oh and my interest in the fact that everyone here wants to sell vol is just a mostly useless and highly unscientific analysis of sentiment, right here. It seems the fear/greed index has been successfully reset over the last two weeks. I myself am experiencing maximum fear, but not enough greed (yet) to pursue your course of action. Though, when I do make that move it will be with puts on the IWM and/or SPY rather than a long position in UVXY, I think.

    Best wishes.
    Nov 8, 2014. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows [View article]
    Did we just say exactly the same thing? I think so! Best wishes.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows [View article]
    ps, to the author: if you're going to make big, bold crash bets, I'd advise doing it in smallish amounts, remembering the timeworn adage that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. best of luck.
    Nov 8, 2014. 02:38 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows [View article]
    More interesting than this article is the fact that nearly every poster here thinks that selling vol is a good idea.

    I do think that gold is a much better, time-proven hedge against dollar tail risk. The dollar could crash and stocks could go to the moon, in which case the VIX gets destroyed. Look at Venezuela.

    If, on the other hand, stocks correct a bit and you time it right, you could make out well with UVXY if you time it right on both sides.

    But, I would like to add my voice to all of those telling "investors" to stay far away from UVXY. It's not an investment. Traders, speculators and riverboat gamblers, now that's another thing.
    Nov 8, 2014. 02:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's (MCP) CEO Geoff Bedford on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    The transcription is done by computers, dogety.

    Looks like the cash burn situation is easing somewhat.
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Extremely Rare Market Event [View article]
    Or, just be patient and wait for Bullard to flip back to the bearish side. At the end of the day, the algos will run with whatever he says, but he's irrelevant. When Dudley comes out and says QE4 then....that's a serious buy. But he's been conspicuously silent.
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Extremely Rare Market Event [View article]
    I'm with you fellas. Strike seems to want Chris to be a fortune teller. He wasn't last year and he isn't now. On the contrary, I think his message is the same now as it was then: make small changes to allocation based on available data and avoid the urge to decide what the market is going to do before it has done it.

    Great work, Chris. Just wanted to say, you have made me a better (calmer, more patient) investor/speculator.
    Nov 3, 2014. 11:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boies poised for upset in AIG bailout trial? [View news story]
    Who knows what the job of government is, any more? Financing junk bonds or backstopping insolvent banks wasn't supposed to be in the job description, either. As a tax payer, I actually DEMAND that we make money, if we take on unnecessary risk.
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boies poised for upset in AIG bailout trial? [View news story]
    They may have a case but technicalities of the court don't matter much in this IMHO. This is just the kind of self-entitled hubris that could wind up bringing the guillotines out -- regular folks just aren't educated enough to understand the nuances here (hey, Rupert, you wanted them dumb, you got them dumb). Best case scenario, this is courting the lasting ill will of the people (those outside the cozy confines), and that good will no doubt be necessary again at some point.
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is QE 4 Right Around The Corner? [View article]
    The will have to answer to a spike in 'failure to deliver' messages in the UST. Which would be a big flashing 'game over' message from risk markets. IN other words: they will have to answer to their primary dealers, which of course matter much more than Congress, or the people, or data or the victims of inequality etc etc etc.

    Without available high quality collateral, the chimera we call our modern markets quite simply cease to exist. That is what's happening in Japan and why we similarly will see no acceleration in BOJ programs, regardless of how bad things are getting over there.

    IMHO the endgame for this experimental phase is approaching, slowly. I have no doubt that they will however find some other new technique for blowing bubbles......which they will put into action just as soon as we run off some of the froth from this phase.
    Oct 27, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is QE 4 Right Around The Corner? [View article]
    I don't think the fed can start QE 4 at this point even if they want to, unless the federal government starts spending a lot more money on infrastructure -- the bond market is already having liquidity issues. But I suppose we'll find out soon enough.
    Oct 27, 2014. 02:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Subscriber growth off target at Netflix in Q3, shares dive [View news story]
    "Cramer says it's going up". Wow. As if there wasn't enough bad news for NFLX holders already.
    Oct 15, 2014. 06:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SFX Entertainment: Playing House Music In A House Of Cards [View article]
    Wow. Just when I thought nothing could top CYNK for pure, broken market entertainment value. This thing is most likely going to 100, by the end of the year.
    Oct 8, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro -10.2%; founders' organization released from lockup [View news story]
    Gotta hand it to whoever managed this IPO. Begin with a small float, make short selling possible but very expensive and intermittently difficult, make sure everyone knows it's got a ridiculous valuation, then use cheap money to float it higher until the lockup ends. Brilliantly managed. Shady, but brilliant. The next step: sell, let it sink, then buy back the shares you sold at lower than IPO prices so you don't dilute your control of the company, long term.
    Oct 2, 2014. 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: I Don't Think We Break Down... Yet [View article]
    I'm not sure whether to feel happy or sad for you if you've lost your last emotional attachments 40 years ago.... ; ) good luck!
    Sep 29, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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