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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Speculators exit gold longs [View news story]
    I personally don't agree with that, for better or worse IMO it would be catastrophic to go back on the gold standard at this point. We just need reasonable and cautious central bankers. Which unfortunately doesn't seem likely to ever happen.
    Jun 9 07:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculators exit gold longs [View news story]
    Love your comments, Doug. I would add that Gold in my view is not at the moment correlated with inflation, but rather closer to the VIX. Both are insurance against central banking, pure and simple. As long as the bankers are successful at projecting confidence in their control, Gold and VIX will remain challenged. That said, I am watching gold (and VIX) very closely at this level (like many people, I'm sure) because big rallies have occurred from here and the short interest appears to be high.
    Jun 9 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise: Japan Q1 GDP revised sharply higher [View news story]
    John, what they are trying to do is ignore past mistakes. They invented QE, it didn't work in the 90's and, today's silly print notwithstanding, it really doesn't seem to be working now. There is a reasonable possibility that QE in fact (counter-intuitively) creates deflation. Makes sense to me.

    http://bit.ly/SquDyx
    Jun 9 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial reaction following ECB is reversed [View news story]
    I disagree with that, actually. It's the sense that the ECB will effectively backstop that keeps rates (and gold) heading downward.

    Any sense that there is no solution or bazooka that will suffice (hello Japan) should be accompanied by gold going higher and periphery spreads blowing out. But we are a LONG way from that.

    I also agree with Leopard that how people are actually positioning isn't going to be known in a few hours or even days. But the fact that Tepper wants you to borrow his stocks for a little while is interesting. Let's see how gold holds up over the next week.
    Jun 6 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    I wasn't debating or defending Hussman or his views, just honestly interested in what the differences are between now and then. I still am, not picking a fight or anything, just always trying to understand the world better, through other people's eyes.
    Jun 5 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    How would you say 2014 is different from 2012? Just curious.
    Jun 5 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    And by the way, if you look at institutional money flows...the 'pros' are apparently already out. Retail has already assumed control of the proverbial bag. But I agree on the long slow grind rather than a crash, because that generates optimal option decay.
    Jun 4 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    I agree with you macro, and the moment of truth for markets will come as economists are forced to read the writing on the wall: liquidity is important in calamities but it does noting, zero, nada, zilch to generate real growth, if anything it impairs real growth because finance/buybacks/etc can obscure lack of true cap ex for quite a while. But, now that volatility is really and truly nearly dead, the cycle will need to begin again just so the banks can stay in business.....
    Jun 4 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    I suppose the answer to your question is a question: how exactly did the NY fed become the most important member of the fed? Wall street is their mandate.
    Jun 2 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's $560 Million Intangible Assets Are Worthless [View article]
    But it probably should be, as, the assets are only worthless "if" the burn rate is sustained. Not saying you are right or wrong, but management appears convinced that the burn rate will improve. Seeing shades of NOK a few years back. But, short away, I want it quite a bit lower, for a nice margin of safety!
    Jun 2 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    As margin declines, does that mean, technically, there's less 'cash on the sidelines', or more?
    Jun 2 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's $560 Million Intangible Assets Are Worthless [View article]
    "If" isn't standard accounting language, AFAIK. That is all.
    Jun 2 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Peaks Are A Process [View article]
    Dudley seemed to be saying back on May 20 that the Fed will not tolerate this scenario. Looks to me like it's the reason the market spiked. How long will talk be good enough? That's the trillion dollar question.
    Jun 2 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM revises again; May print is now 55.4 [View news story]
    The hilarious thing about all of these numbers is that they are constantly and retroactively revised, to massage the MOM and YOY changes...you just gotta laugh! Quite amusing the extent to which these guys have more or less destroyed fundamental analysis, it just isn't possible any more.
    Jun 2 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Demon The Gold Bears Are Mistakenly Overlooking [View article]
    IMO what happens in Japan and the ECB has more to do with where gold goes than the Ukraine or etc. Gold will move in a serious way when people start losing faith in the central bankers. Earlier this year it was Japan (I believe) that prompted the run. Getting ready phase 2 of that run (Abenomics is a miserable failure) and extremely interested to see how the markets react to whatever Draghi comes up with. Nothing else matters to any of the markets right now.
    Jun 1 10:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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