The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
And this new "flexible" fed has just become another reason to have less exposure to the markets and the 'accompanying psychology'; because, basically, schizoid panic will now become the institutionalized foundation of the market. And you know that as soon as we decide that QE tapering rumors aren't going to take us back to the 200 DMA at a moment's notice, well.... then they will.
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
Good points, all. Like you, I emphasize the 'for now'. For now, yields are definitely on the move, and risk is well bid.
I'm of course not claiming to have a crystal ball! There are worrying signs and there are positive signs.
I have also noticed the recent bounce back in the commodity complex. It doesn't seem at all decisive to me. It seems actually to be poised on the edge of a knife right now.....and, full disclosure, I am short GLD.
But at this point in time I am content to largely sit in cash, trade a bit where it seems appropriate, and wait for a clearer sign on long-term direction. My hunch, as I said, is long-term deflation, but I'm not a zealot. Best wishes.
What Is The Federal Reserve's 'Rat' Trying To Tell You? [View article]
btw how did you get short SPY and IWM @ 7:30 pm on a friday? I thought that even futures markets are closed then? I thought long and hard about adding to my IWM short and putting on a SPY short just before 4, into the teeth of the 3:30 cocaine train, but thought better of it.
On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down." [View news story]
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
Your point about the economy is a bit confusing. If a recovery hasn't even started, then why are stock prices up 100% -- if not because of QE-related financial market distortions?
My fundamental opinion is that QE has tremendous effect on the markets but there is little flow-through to the 'real' world of inputs and wages and etc.
And yes I agree, if QE ends because the economy is recovering, we are going to the moon. In my opinion, however, QE will end/taper not because the economy is recovering but rather because it becomes increasingly obvious that QE is in fact threatening if not outright stalling the recovery, by encouraging companies to add to their bottom line using financial shenanigans and buybacks, instead of actually growing their businesses and adding to employment.
And, I'm not sure I understand why you think ADP, PAYX and insurers will benefit moving forward: I guess you're firmly in the camp of an inflationary, higher growth future? I hope you're right, of course, but I just don't see it. At any rate thanks as always for an informative viewpoint and best wishes.
The Fed and Treasury are examining the extent to which Bloomberg terminal usage by top officials was tracked by Bloomberg journalists. Bloomberg reporters were reportedly using terminal login data "very openly" to determine when traders were suspended or let go during the London Whale situation. Another report says Bloomberg employees accessed a transcript of a call of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to the company's help desk. [View news story]
'Fed and Treasury are examining the extent to which Bloomberg news is or is not aware of exactly what 'other' assets they may have been buying under OMO.'
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
@steadyO: the idea being, that the deep ITM put covers you in case there's a regime change, yeah? but you're well-screwed if we get a month long selloff, no?
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
swashplate: I love and try to remember the first line of that movie 'Rounders': 'if you don't know who the sucker is at the table....it's probably you.' Doesn't it seem like, if the money down there was really free money, some one of those reasonably intelligent and very hungry sharks in the water would have grabbed it by now?
The chart on SVXY goes back all of two years, which have been some of the best times in history to sell vol. If you do wade in to waters that you don't thoroughly understand, just do it small enough so that you can feel ok about giving money away if it goes down that way. Best wishes.
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
@ jpwillia thanks for clarifying and with greatest respect I think Andrew's approach makes more sense on every level. You limit your profit using spreads but you also limit your downside. BTW I highly recommend reading Taleb's 'Fooled By Randomness' if you're going to be a derivatives trader, which is what you're doing. It has many good examples of a few of the many ways people can utterly blow up their accounts, and lives, by not having protection as sellers in derivatives markets. Best of luck!
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Totally agree on options -- and hedged positions using options IMO, to further reduce the danger. Though being long a small amount of the underlying when the underlying is as cheap as UVXY is right now, is more or less the same thing as an option.
And, I was talking about mental stops. I never put stops in any more......but, this idea that you just sell vol and wait for it to go your way, all-in, strikes me as dangerous.
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
And Alan, (with all due respect) I think that at the very least you should consider the possibility that, as the big money unwinds treasuries (hedges) they will be perhaps be moved to unwind some portion of their notional exposure to risk. Margin rates will no doubt rise and it seems to me that levels of margin must also decline.
What Is The Federal Reserve's 'Rat' Trying To Tell You? [View article]
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
I'm of course not claiming to have a crystal ball! There are worrying signs and there are positive signs.
I have also noticed the recent bounce back in the commodity complex. It doesn't seem at all decisive to me. It seems actually to be poised on the edge of a knife right now.....and, full disclosure, I am short GLD.
But at this point in time I am content to largely sit in cash, trade a bit where it seems appropriate, and wait for a clearer sign on long-term direction. My hunch, as I said, is long-term deflation, but I'm not a zealot. Best wishes.
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
What Is The Federal Reserve's 'Rat' Trying To Tell You? [View article]
What Is The Federal Reserve's 'Rat' Trying To Tell You? [View article]
On the surface, today's selloff in gold has all the earmarks of a dollar-related move. After all, the Dollar Index has risen nearly 2% over the past two days. Couple that with the standard Friday jitters, its only natural for support levels to be breached today. However, Oppenheimer's chief market technician Carter Worth says today's action all part of a bigger technical move. "A multi-year bull market has transitioned to a bear market," Worth says, and "the backing and filling of late is the normal setup for the next leg down." [View news story]
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
My fundamental opinion is that QE has tremendous effect on the markets but there is little flow-through to the 'real' world of inputs and wages and etc.
And yes I agree, if QE ends because the economy is recovering, we are going to the moon. In my opinion, however, QE will end/taper not because the economy is recovering but rather because it becomes increasingly obvious that QE is in fact threatening if not outright stalling the recovery, by encouraging companies to add to their bottom line using financial shenanigans and buybacks, instead of actually growing their businesses and adding to employment.
And, I'm not sure I understand why you think ADP, PAYX and insurers will benefit moving forward: I guess you're firmly in the camp of an inflationary, higher growth future? I hope you're right, of course, but I just don't see it. At any rate thanks as always for an informative viewpoint and best wishes.
The Fed and Treasury are examining the extent to which Bloomberg terminal usage by top officials was tracked by Bloomberg journalists. Bloomberg reporters were reportedly using terminal login data "very openly" to determine when traders were suspended or let go during the London Whale situation. Another report says Bloomberg employees accessed a transcript of a call of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to the company's help desk. [View news story]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
The chart on SVXY goes back all of two years, which have been some of the best times in history to sell vol. If you do wade in to waters that you don't thoroughly understand, just do it small enough so that you can feel ok about giving money away if it goes down that way. Best wishes.
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
And, I was talking about mental stops. I never put stops in any more......but, this idea that you just sell vol and wait for it to go your way, all-in, strikes me as dangerous.
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]