pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • New EU stimulus fund to be announced this week  [View news story]
    More like, 'let's get those German shopkeepers to work 80 hours a week so those multinational banksters can buy another private plane'.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap  [View article]
    Well put, when you say "manglement".
    Nov 24, 2014. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Trout, I'm not following you here. If the dollar is going to strengthen in the mid to long term, won't that put further pressure on commodities? I thought you were positioning for a massive bull run in the oil sector.
    Nov 20, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Why do you prefer SH and SQQQ to just selling the SPY/IWM/QQQ or emini short? And why prefer UVXY to SPY puts? You get similar exposure with lower costs, I think?

    And re: gold, I don't see that as a stock market hedge but more in response to your fears above about inflation, which is not necessarily bad for stocks.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Can we all just have a good laugh together about the fact that the VIX is up 5.6% today and UVXY is......down 1.3%? If you're thinking about buying it, don't! There are an almost limitless number of better ways to hedge. IMHO.
    Nov 17, 2014. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    If inflation is higher, as you're saying, I think it's gold you want and not a VIX product. The stock market *could* go to the moon if we have an inflationary crisis, look at Venezuela.
    Nov 17, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise contraction in Japanese GDP  [View news story]
    LOL @ "surprisingly".
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's Debt Trades At All-Time Lows  [View article]
    tenofwands, that's my thinking, exactly. a geopolitical lottery ticket. this whole oak tree thing has me a bit spooked, though, I'll admit. that was a vicious game they pulled with EGLE recently.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Well at least the author is making a few bucks thanks to all of these comments and page views. Happy to contribute a bit here. Good luck!
    Nov 10, 2014. 03:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    I wouldn't say that they're trolls, exactly, but rather the self-satisfied type of person who emerges after a trade has been working for a while and they think they know exactly everything about how a product 'should' and 'will' work. OTOH I do think the general atmosphere of caution around UVXY is deserved and I do think you should re-consider this notion that UVXY is an 'investment'. It's about as much of an investment as a Feb. 2015 SPY put is an investment. Which is to say, not much of one. But it could be a great trade.
    Nov 8, 2014. 07:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Hi Bart, "selling vol" refers to selling volatility, which is the other side of your trade. It seems nearly everyone commenting is more interested in selling volatility than buying it. Which is and should usually be true, as 95% of the time volatility, which UVXY tracks is a losing trade. More like 99% of the time over the last few years.....but, I digress. Typically, professionals sell volatility to people who are nervous, so they can hedge their long positions. Most of the time it's a winning trade, but of course, there are those moments when naked sellers of volatility (which are usually retail emulators of pros rather than real pros, any real pro would sell vol as a spread) get crushed and are never heard from again. Of course, 'never heard from again' even more typically applies to naked buyers of volatility. Which is why I would recommend a much smaller position than you think is reasonable in this product, because there is always that (very slim, I'm sure) chance you are wrong.

    Oh and my interest in the fact that everyone here wants to sell vol is just a mostly useless and highly unscientific analysis of sentiment, right here. It seems the fear/greed index has been successfully reset over the last two weeks. I myself am experiencing maximum fear, but not enough greed (yet) to pursue your course of action. Though, when I do make that move it will be with puts on the IWM and/or SPY rather than a long position in UVXY, I think.

    Best wishes.
    Nov 8, 2014. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    Did we just say exactly the same thing? I think so! Best wishes.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    ps, to the author: if you're going to make big, bold crash bets, I'd advise doing it in smallish amounts, remembering the timeworn adage that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. best of luck.
    Nov 8, 2014. 02:38 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian Delight: Maybe Last Chance To Invest Or Hedge With UVXY At All Time Lows  [View article]
    More interesting than this article is the fact that nearly every poster here thinks that selling vol is a good idea.

    I do think that gold is a much better, time-proven hedge against dollar tail risk. The dollar could crash and stocks could go to the moon, in which case the VIX gets destroyed. Look at Venezuela.

    If, on the other hand, stocks correct a bit and you time it right, you could make out well with UVXY if you time it right on both sides.

    But, I would like to add my voice to all of those telling "investors" to stay far away from UVXY. It's not an investment. Traders, speculators and riverboat gamblers, now that's another thing.
    Nov 8, 2014. 02:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's (MCP) CEO Geoff Bedford on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript  [View article]
    The transcription is done by computers, dogety.

    Looks like the cash burn situation is easing somewhat.
    Nov 7, 2014. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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