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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Bernanke is not an elite, my friend, he's just a tool. I see him with some sympathy actually, because I think that the true powers that be (which he doesn't actually wield, he's just a figurehead) has broken him almost completely.
    Jan 31 04:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Glad we agree there -- without that lending there is no trickle down. But I'm curious about this other part, that they will start to lend soon because our ecopnomy has been growing -- in what way has the economy been growing? I think that's the part I'm not seeing. I ask this seriously, because I would love to be a bull here.
    Jan 31 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Tack, I think I've been properly respectful of your viewpoint and don't appreciate being called a communist. I'm a small business owner, a stock trader and certainly qualify as a capitalist on every level. I'm also definitively a member of the upper class. And feel some responsibility for others for that reason. It's not properly productive to set up opposing viewpoints as straw men, unless you're not interested in discourse. It isn't 'communist' to analyze banks' balance sheets and notice that they aren't lending. Hence, this trickle down isn't happening. What's happening is, capital is accruing, stagnating, and turning on itself. Why? Because the banks are (rightly) afraid to lend out at these rates. As a capitalist, I worry about this, not because I want society to be uniform in its distribution of capital, but because I want capitalism to be sustainable.
    Jan 31 04:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    That's not at all the point, rudester. In fact, I think the point is, don't fight the fed but do make sure you have a stop in place.
    Jan 31 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Come on Tack, the housing market has been held aloft by the fed's liquidity and, IMO, by flight of capital from China Japan. Wages and employment participation are down everywhere, so current home prices and rents are going to increasingly be a drag on forward-looking GDP. We can move the shells around all we want, there still isn't anything under them.
    Jan 31 04:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Bernanke should be prosecuted for his role in the currency wars ; )
    Jan 31 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    What fundamentals have improved?
    Jan 31 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Tack: I agree with you about everything except the notion that the fed stimulus will effectively stimulate the economy. This is basic trickle down economic theory, I know, I just don't believe in it. And here we cycle back to Colin's point: banks are emphatically NOT lending out this money that the fed is giving them, they are simply pumping it into the markets and looking for quick bucks. Just look at their balance sheets.

    If we want to grow a robust economy, we need to build infrastructure, not wallpaper Goldman's offices with dollar bills.
    Jan 31 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    One other thing, drink: it's hard to take a loss, but it's harder to take a bigger loss. Good luck!
    Jan 31 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Gary Shilling thinks not. And, it always seems to come to pass that what seemed obvious doesn't end up playing out, so I think deflation is actually a very real concern. Some recent data confirms this; other data suggests inflation...who knows?
    Jan 31 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Drinky, if you're truly new to this I hope you won't mind if I make a suggestion -- set a reasonable stop and hold yourself to it. Even better, identify a price target and when you hit it, take it. I say the because a) those ultrashort ETFs are really not meant for long-term plays, as they have daily decay, and b) this is an apish*t market, difficult to short. We may or may not get some downside here but this isn't going to move in a straight line and all of this liquidity means that the algos and MMs can push this market around like its a rag doll. Also the QQQs are already a bit beat up, so you probably have some profits to take. Don't let them disappear.

    Also, my recommendation would be to avoid the ultrashort ETFs and just short the QQQs directly, or, if you feel you have a sense for timing, use options, as that way you limit your losses in the event of an upside surprise.
    Jan 31 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Tack: I think you have a reasonable approach, with your long-term buy and hold thesis.

    It's not that it's a bubble that's destined to collapse that is at issue here, in my mind. The issue is, is this helping the economy, or is it simply propping up asset prices? No one knows the answer, IMO and anyone who says they do is confusing opinion with truth. But what is disturbing to me is that wealth is absolutely being redistributed from the government to the investor class. Granted, I'm part of that class, but still, I find it disturbing.

    And, also, since the markets are propped by the fed, and respond to their + or - OMO, that means that the fed's primary dealers have EVERY advantage here: they will be the ones pulling the rug out when the velocity of money shifts. That's simply not fair.
    Jan 31 03:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke [View article]
    Tack, are you saying that fed liquidity isn't affecting the markets? If so, do you have an alternate thesis for why the markets are doing making the same time-stamped move every day?

    For my part, I don't care if its legal or illegal, the banks write the laws anyway. (BTW was it not absolutely HILARIOUS recently when that DOJ prosecutor got fired for actually saying that in public...)

    I just wish I was a primary dealer and could get advance notification as they do for when they fed flips negative on its liquidity injections.
    Jan 31 02:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Rotation [View article]
    This is a great point. But I do think that it's likely that this rotation (as emerging markets emerge) won't be a straight line. There's a massive BRIC debt bubble right now, if/when it explodes I'm thinking there will be a pretty substantial (temporary) rotation towards (paradoxically, given our own fiscal regime) the relative safety of the US. At the same time, I think that due to their long-term growth, they will be able to escape their debt implosion without consigning themselves to the dustbin of history via printing money, as our leaders are dead set on doing.
    Jan 31 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Investment Rate Warns Of A Major Market Turn Down [View article]
    Who needs the AAII survey? These comments tell me all I need to know about current investor sentiment. Good luck, everyone.
    Jan 31 12:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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