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  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    Agreed. Taleb recommends a basket of currencies.
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    Seems properly conservative. I do think that commodities, cash and "other" (land?small business?) deserve a place of honor in every portfolio.
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    Balance, Wally. Balance is the key. Build a portfolio that can withstand anything. PTTRX can be a part of that but there are many other options as well. If you just want to leave it alone, look at permanent portfolio theory.
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    OK, I'll bite. What are you going to do with 100k in retirement? Regret that you took on so much risk at the wrong time?
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    I do, when the time is right. I made about 5% on TLT in a few weeks in the fall. And, I'll be honest, I lost about a percent in one day on Dec. 31. It's an interesting trade, not quite correlated inversely to equities, it keeps you on your toes for sure, esp. in this environment. It can also be used to hedge long positions. I'm expecting that a good buying opportunity is right around the corner, actually.
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    Are you joking? Tell me you're not an investment professional. It is a direct abrogation of your fiduciary duty if you are telling this kind of thing to your clients. Absurd. Bonds, ok, maybe get out of bonds. But you must diversify. This is common sense!

    If you're not managing other people's money, but just your own, I find your stance less problematic but caution you to reconsider. You never want all of your eggs in one basket, not ever, unless you are supremely confident in your luck!
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Bites: Economy Begins To Shrink As Fed Goes Broke  [View article]
    AMEN, brown trout. Amen. I am absolutely disgusted by this rape (perpetrated by Bernanke) of our once-great nation. I do not believe that it will end well.

    And I say this as a Keynesian (in principle). There is nothing Keynesian about this outrage against the fabric of our society. It is an utterly misguided excercise in hubris.

    You are an astonishingly great source of historical and theoretical threads. My understanding remains minimal but I intend to pursue these ideas over time. As you say, there is nothing more complex. Thank you for your insight into these matters.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    Oh, sorry, I wasn't paying attention. OK so I see you're saying derivatives trading is based on randomness rather than uncertainty. What I'm saying is, selling insurance (selling puts) takes advantage of of people's fears, preys on uncertainty if you will. And buying insurance for improbable events that you believe will happen (and other people haven't imagined) is essentially what put buying is. So, in either case, my sense is that you are capitalizing on uncertainty/"impossibl... outcomes. But, it's kind of semantic and I see your point, too.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    AFAIK Taleb is not at all interested in practical, in-depth explanations of his trading. He's more interested in philosophical musings.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    How is that randomness? As I understand it, randomness is probabilistic and would include notions like reversion to the mean, and for instance using a monte carlo simulator to determine possible outcomes and their probability. The notion of a random walk implies that one can understand the possible outcomes. Uncertainty is always the product of a (previously) "impossible" outcome. As I understand it. I'm interested to hear your take.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    Of course you can make money on uncertainty! I mean, just take Mr. Buffet, for example: the don of buy and hold essentially owes his fortune to an insurance company. He's also a prolific writer of put options. If that's not making money on uncertainty I don't know what is.

    Taleb's approach to the derivatives market is obviously quite a bit different (and as far as I know he never goes beyond the generalities of his own practice). But in general he emphasizes timing, and risk control. In the grossest terms, my sense is that he would see buying some long-dated put options as a pretty good idea right now. And, if you're right on that trade, you could conceivably make quite a bit -- or you could lose it all. But, if you manage risk appropriately and you get lucky occasionally, you might do well. His basic point though, is that, when you think you're taking a safer approach than that -- buy and hold -- you're ignoring serious risks, like for instance the (improbable) risk that the financial system in this country implodes. My favorite point of his is that, assuming that stock markets always go up, one might have invested all of their money in the stable economy of imperial russia at the turn of the last century, rather than taking a huge risk on the emerging market of the US. Food for thought. Fooled By Randomness is worth a read for any trader IMHO, fun stuff, regardless of your approach.

    Good luck!
    Feb 5, 2013. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Investing Strategy That Is Half Warren Buffett And Half Nassim Taleb  [View article]
    Not sure I understand your point, experimental trader? The fact that almost no one understands the theory of relativity properly and often misquotes it doesn't make it less interesting. It just reinforces another of Taleb's points, which is that there is almost nothing to be gained from reading the newspaper.

    And I would say in fact that most of Taleb's writing is dedicated to defining the various distinctions between randomness (efficient markets, known risks) and uncertainty (black swans, unknown risks).
    Feb 5, 2013. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recession Is Here Already  [View article]
    Tomfrompv: What signs from the 10 yr are you looking for?
    Feb 5, 2013. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: S&P 500  [View article]
    I don't think he said that he capitulated? But rather that he's still waiting patiently for the expected pullback.
    Feb 5, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Bond Investment Strategy: 'Just Say No!'  [View article]
    You could certainly say the same thing about stocks right here. You need to be more creative about diversification.
    Feb 5, 2013. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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