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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • After voters approved tax hikes for the rich in the recent election, California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office is forecasting that the state will enjoy a surplus of $1B by FY 2014-2015. Critics says the increases will lead to an exodus of residents, businesses and jobs, although Governor Jerry Brown's office points to a report which says that the link between tax policies and migration are untrue. [View news story]
    No, I'm not moving to Texas, and yes, I'm happy to pay my fair share of taxes in California. It's up to all of us to do our part to make a society that we want to live in. You folks who are interested in turning this country into a Banana Republic, please move to one.
    Dec 4 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recession Risk: Is The U.S. Economic Expansion Running Out Of Time? [View article]
    I guess you skipped the article? Which is fairly upbeat.
    Dec 2 11:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make 30% On Your Money With This Nokia Trade [View article]
    You can probably find pricing something like .50 a contract? So, the more relevant question is how much of your overall portfolio you would give over to options, which are inherently much riskier. In this case, it's been mentioned already that the risks of LEAPS options like this are pretty hard to quantify; I'm not sure but I'm tempted to think that the strategy here potentially takes on more risk than owning the stock, with less upside.
    Dec 1 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese Steel Plunge Is Resuming And Steepening [View article]
    I like cat but I think you'll have a chance to add more lower, as I see this as merely a pause before we head lower in the general markets, and cat tends to be pretty high beta.
    Nov 28 02:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    She's ok. She frightened me a bit at first, though.
    Nov 28 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sheep To The Slaughter: Beware The Great Bond Bubble [View article]
    nbseer: you should read more widely than this article, don't be overly alarmed. Even if long term treasuries eventually (it won't happen immediately) turn south, there's a whole world of debt that should continue to do reasonably well. I'd expect munis to be bid. Shorter durations are very safe if low yielding. The bottom line in my mind is, sell side wants you in equities. I personally don't want in at these prices, in this climate. Cash is also not a horrible thing at times like these. But, keep an eye out. A good bond fund manager should anticipate the moves the alarmists are worried about. Doubleline, Pimco, these guys are very concerned about return of capital. I'm about 60% bonds of various kinds, and the rest is cash and short term trades -- I would like to be more like 80% equities but as Buffet says, cash is that call option that doesn't expire, and I'll wait for my price. And, definitely, don't short treasuries unless you really know what you're doing!
    Nov 27 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sheep To The Slaughter: Beware The Great Bond Bubble [View article]
    Commodities markets don't seem to be buying the inflation card at the moment.
    Nov 27 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Sell Nokia Shares Into The Recent Surge [View article]
    Do you expect enterprise to adopt it? That adoption or lack of will significantly impact Nokia's chances IMO.
    Nov 27 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    I am more and more convinced that it is you who are the bot, Venerability. But, a charming one. BTW: still long HNR, half position, with any luck they have some pressure to close the deal before cap gains go up!
    Nov 27 09:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Expensive [View article]
    I find it hard to understand how people can be successful investors without being willing to consider viewpoints which differ from their own. This article was well-researched and reasonably presented; I'm guessing that's why it was an editor's pick. You are of course free to draw your own conclusions, but why would you be interested in stifling an opposing viewpoint? I ALWAYS try to keep in mind who's on the other side of the trade.
    Nov 27 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Sell Nokia Shares Into The Recent Surge [View article]
    1.50 is extreme. I'm a buyer with both hands at 2.25, and with one at 2.75.
    Nov 27 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Sell Nokia Shares Into The Recent Surge [View article]
    Luke, what do you hear about the Windows 8 user experience? I ask because I've read so many negative reports and want to hear the other side -- as I hope you remember, I was long NOK from early this summer (and was actually again for about a week recently) and really want to be again, though I'd say I no longer view the Windows phone/enterprise smartphone conversion story as the same slam dunk that I once did. That said, I love the W8 tiles on phones; I just wonder how it translates to the desktop and if the conversion erodes the windows advantage (as some have speculated). Interested to hear your thoughts, with any luck Harry Reid will give me a nice buying opportunity fairly soon.
    Nov 27 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sheep To The Slaughter: Beware The Great Bond Bubble [View article]
    "Right this second"? It took me longer than a second to LOL at that one, sir! The long bond's negative correlation to equities is going to last more than a second, I think. Or, at least, that's my play. It's been highly successful since exactly when folks started hollering to unload long bonds after QE3 (which is when I first bought, at 119). It's good to know the other side of the trade, however, and I wish you luck. I think if we time it right we can both win -- but beware the cliff. There is an interesting analysis out by an SG analyst (I think) that drew my attention to the simple reality that hedgies and other large players need a certain ammount of new issuance to sustain their models and if that suddenly dries up because Harry Reid is having a bad day (month?) then bond prices may be affected. Long TLT.
    Nov 27 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Sell Nokia Shares Into The Recent Surge [View article]
    I'm not sure if you understood my comment. I hope you don't honestly blame me for taking profits at 3.35? I'm certainly not pleased to be participating in a rigged market, I'm just playing it as I see it. And, as far as going out when you need the money, I'd say that's the worst possible strategy. Never invest money you'll need in speculative, volatile names is my belief; and, in better times I'd agree with you that staying long is the best idea, but I fear we're already in another bear market and am inclined towards caution. But wish you the best.
    Nov 27 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Checks indicate demand for Nokia's (NOK -5.2%) Lumia 920 is "solid" at AT&T, but well behind demand for the iPhone 5 and Galaxy S III, says Raymond James' Tavis McCourt, who reiterates an Underperform. Moreover, McCourt thinks commentary from AT&T reps about the 920 "was very similar to the April launch of the Lumia 900, but with a lot more supply issues." He adds the 900 was on Amazon's top-10 bestseller list for 2 months, and that HTC and Samsung's Windows Phone 8 models also face supply problems. (previous: I, II, III[View news story]
    Of course they're shady! But I think characterizing the market manipulators as 'shorts' is a bit off. Pump and dump is more like it. Or if you prefer: 'accumulate and distribute'. Tech names like NOK, RIMM, etc. are perfect for their games because people get excited about the technology, how they're selling, etc, etc., and worry that they'll miss the boat rather than just standing by and waiting for the boat to come to them.
    Nov 27 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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