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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Get Set For The Relief Rally [View article]
    That's quarterly, I believe, from Goldman, (via zerohedge). I honestly don't think anyone can even imagine what will happen if this default scenario occurs, in terms of ripple effects. I can't even wrap my head around it. It is utter and complete lunacy that it is even being discussed. Obama needs to sign an executive order immediately, even toying with this stuff is incredibly dangerous given the current macro/debt situation.

    http://bit.ly/1fXXLrt

    I also can't believe that I went and bought a few stocks at the EOD. Expecting to have them ripped out of my hands in the morning by angry, parading bears. (that was from 95% cash to 90% cash)
    Oct 8 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Set For The Relief Rally [View article]
    You guys crack me up!

    You do realize that this particular approach (shutdown, default) would increase the deficit rather than decrease it, by decimating GDP and thus receipts, and necessitating a weaker currency via the fed? Or maybe you don't realize that. Look up the word 'economy' in wikipedia, it will start you on a fascinating journey.
    Oct 8 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Set For The Relief Rally [View article]
    Hey by the way, Cam: nice relief rally. Ouch.
    Oct 8 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Set For The Relief Rally [View article]
    And.....the hit to GDP will be perhaps 4.5%. So, if you're serious about this you better load up on the long bond and sell stocks like crazy.
    Oct 8 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Set For The Relief Rally [View article]
    I am astounded that something like this is being written on a site for supposedly financially literate people. The hit to GDP from closing the government that long would be serious. Fox news is not a good place to study macro.
    Oct 8 08:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama And Lew Say This Is Serious - Are They Just Grandstanding Or Is This Time Different? [View article]
    Even Dennis Hastert (of the so-called 'Hastert Rule' that Boehner continues to fall back upon as he avoids bringing the CR up for a vote) thinks these Republicans, at this point in time, are acting like absolute and total morons. The future of the party is at stake. No one, other than a few of the most brain dead couch bound specimens is buying that this is any way Obama's fault. There is a fringe activist element (Kochs) that is enjoying this. But the base is horrified, and pissed, and if this bs continues for more than another week, history will be very very unkind to this caucus.
    Oct 7 01:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are Defensive ETFs Telling Us About The Stock Market? [View article]
    Hi Chris, I first want to say, I always appreciate your blog, though I never comment there I am a regular reader. Your perspective on risk management has been an inspiration for me.

    What's really confusing me about the current situation is that, while over-the-counter markets are showing almost nothing in the way of fear, markets for things like oct/nov t-bills and US credit default swaps are insanely, Lehman level scared. I just find it puzzling. Any thoughts on that?

    I find the present situation pretty tough, because any resolution out of Washington will annihilate a short position and yet I fear that, given the simmering fear in debt markets, the algos in charge of retail could flip a switch at any point, for no particular reason, and we're down 20%.
    Oct 4 07:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Be Bullish (Part 2): The Domestic Stock Market Analysis [View article]
    Interesting thoughts, unfortunate timing.
    Oct 3 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Corp: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful, 33% Upside From Hiccough Valuation Levels [View article]
    congrats guys. headed higher.
    Oct 2 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Harvest Natural's Improper Accounting [View article]
    I wish you luck, too. Will let you know when I decide to get off the train. I, you, we can't really know what the inside story is, can we? What I see is prices, moving up, and I like that.
    Oct 2 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Harvest Natural's Improper Accounting [View article]
    True, but then all analysts are absurd, no? And as far as the company being a scam, I've certainly heard you say that many times, but I just don't see it. Unless, of course, you mean, all exploration companies are scams.
    Oct 1 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Harvest Natural's Improper Accounting [View article]
    Of course you're right, I shouldn't lightly accuse a character from a book of securities fraud. The timing of the article is no more strange than saying Cramer saying to buy JCP a few weeks ago. But, just as hilarious. Best of luck.
    Oct 1 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Harvest Natural's Improper Accounting [View article]
    Big Blue: thanks for the perspective. Price action sure looks like accumulation to me, regardless of the legitimacy of the balance sheet.

    Sorry if I offended you in my previous comment.

    (and FWIW my pps is in fact below zero, since I bought near 5, rode it to 10, sold 1/2 and then sold another 1/3 before it came back down to earth, so what I'm holding is in my eyes just gravy. Of course I would be pleased if the gravy gets re-warmed.....and I am absolutely not day-trading HNR, quite the opposite, holding this chunk to see where it goes, and enjoying the turns and twists. Good luck.)
    Sep 30 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Labor Market Will Continue To Frustrate The Fed [View article]
    I understand the economic argument to be made tying monetary stimulus to job creation but I am increasingly sure that if there is a relationship it is a negative correlation. Hot money and gains to be made speculatively (share buybacks, etc.) will continue to feel like a better and better alternative to infrastructure investments, as everyone knows there is a floor under speculation and there is none under the ramshackle economy and the consumer. It is a vicious rather than virtuous cycle that is being nurtured. On the other hand, I do think that fiscal stimulus could be an effective way to create jobs but that appears to be off of the table.
    Sep 26 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Has A New Secular Bull Market Been Born? [View article]
    If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck its probably ready to be cooked and served for dinner? What little I pretend to know about price action says reversal candles on high volume are not buying opportunities.
    Sep 20 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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