Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Excellent point. I meant mental stop btw, just, the idea that with vol you really shouldn't attempt a martingale strategy -- in either direction. It works great until it doesn't, and then you're blown up. And the idea that this strategy would even be considered in the current environment is just such a sad commentary on what Ben hath wrought.
Secular Bear Market For Stocks Is Over [View article]
actually I think it's the record short levels that keep this thing going, until they capitulate, this market will continue to seek them out, because that's the easy way to generate volume.
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
didn't you just answer your own question? the end of QE is dollar positive, isn't it? but....I seriously doubt QE is going to end, or even taper, any time soon. these 'rumors' are just a BS rationale for a very necessary little pull back below 1600, to test weak holders. and before any serious correction can happen, the MMs need to freak people out a bit more about bonds and gold, just as you're already freaked out about gold, so they can scoop those up cheaply, while everyone that reads magazines heads into a 100% allocation of stocks. it's either funny or a bit sick.
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
I'd just like to say that, in case there's someone inexperienced reading this, the strategy jpwillia is describing is exactly the trade that ends by people blowing up their accounts. I can't really understand how anyone would be long or short any vix product without a hard stop in mind.
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
And Buffet's advice...is the same as Gundlach's. Sell corporate debt.
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
Sorry, but the Bernank will only give advance notice to his future employers before he exits.
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
Forget The Jobless Recovery, Get Ready For The Full-Employed Recession [View article]
Don't you realize that it's sacrilege to say anything negative about the markets, or fundamentals, or the future, or QE , ever?
Apparently you haven't gotten the (widely disseminated) memo that the stock market only moves in one direction, 'bears like you have missed out on the biggest rally in the history of rallies', we're now in a secular bull market, etc.
Stick A Fork In Nokia, Buy BlackBerry [View article]
This article (its title anyway, i didnt read it) is a pretty sad commentary on both companies, the little runts seem dead set on beating each other up. May they both circle the drain for years to come.
Today's Economic Data Is Less Impressive Than The Stock Market's Reaction [View instapost]
Agreed that the internals were weak, but that doesn't get headlines. Does this change your view re: the long bond?
I think that today's news will prompt a thousand 'end of QE?' articles in coming days, leading to a mini great rotation next week. Glad I have recently lightened up on TLT and sold the rest of it first thing this morning; kept a chunk of IEF. Will look at add back over next few weeks, as I do think deflationary forces will remain in play, but there's too much short-term risk in it for me.......moved to 90% cash.
JPMorgan (JPM) has "transitioned from model citizen to problem child" in the eyes of Washington, the NY Times says. The latest evidence of the shift is a government document (reviewed by the Times) which reportedly says the firm dreamed up "manipulative schemes" in order to wring profits from "money-losing power plants." The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also says Blythe Masters (mother of the synthetic CDO) "falsely denied under oath her awareness of" certain activities allegedly undertaken by a group of Houston energy traders. It isn't clear whether actions will be taken against JPM, which will have a chance to respond to the allegations. [View news story]
Since JPM's former top lawyer is now the head of enforcement for the SEC, I would not be holding my breath on any action against JPM. Our "government" is such a joke at this point.
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
Aren't "footprints" the very definition of a rigged market? I'm not complaining, by the way, just observing. Price action sure looks intentional to me, and to me that means the market is rigged, these guys have so much liquidity at their disposal right now that they can do whatever they want to with these low volume markets.
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Secular Bear Market For Stocks Is Over [View article]
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
Bond guru Jeff Gundlach warns that risk of rising interest rates extends beyond bond markets, citing MLPs in particular: "People are moving away from bond investments for obvious reasons but are going into things that are like going from the frying pan into the fire. Look at MLPs: If interest rates rise, you are going to get killed on a lot of these vehicles because they have a lot of leverage and a lot of interest rate risk." [View news story]
Forget The Jobless Recovery, Get Ready For The Full-Employed Recession [View article]
Apparently you haven't gotten the (widely disseminated) memo that the stock market only moves in one direction, 'bears like you have missed out on the biggest rally in the history of rallies', we're now in a secular bull market, etc.
; )
Stick A Fork In Nokia, Buy BlackBerry [View article]
Today's Economic Data Is Less Impressive Than The Stock Market's Reaction [View instapost]
I think that today's news will prompt a thousand 'end of QE?' articles in coming days, leading to a mini great rotation next week. Glad I have recently lightened up on TLT and sold the rest of it first thing this morning; kept a chunk of IEF. Will look at add back over next few weeks, as I do think deflationary forces will remain in play, but there's too much short-term risk in it for me.......moved to 90% cash.
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
JPMorgan (JPM) has "transitioned from model citizen to problem child" in the eyes of Washington, the NY Times says. The latest evidence of the shift is a government document (reviewed by the Times) which reportedly says the firm dreamed up "manipulative schemes" in order to wring profits from "money-losing power plants." The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also says Blythe Masters (mother of the synthetic CDO) "falsely denied under oath her awareness of" certain activities allegedly undertaken by a group of Houston energy traders. It isn't clear whether actions will be taken against JPM, which will have a chance to respond to the allegations. [View news story]
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]