Nokia (NOK -9.7%) and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU -7.5%) are off sharply, as investors fret Europe's debt crisis will prevent the cash-burning companies from raising fresh capital. Nokia is now at levels last seen in 1996, and speculation is growing newly-minted tablet seller Microsoft (MSFT) will consider buying its Windows Phone partner. Nonetheless, a Microsoft exec asserts his company has no interest in making its own phones, shooting down prior speculation. [View news story]
PERHAPS YOU WOULD CARE TO EXPLAIN THE DECLINE IN YOUR OWN TERMS.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
AIG has tremendous exposure to Europe, which I hear is having problems. It's price history is not overwhelmingly positive. As I'm sure you know.
But you're right that it's a facile comparison.
And listen, thanks for your insight, but honestly everything about this discussion is actually quite general and facile and actually has become quite stale and boring.
I'll be back in January 2013 to check in on the Nokia discussion and if the stock is below 4 I'll be giving you the respect you deserve. Good luck, everyone.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
But isn't that exactly what's about to play out in the mobile/tablet space? Apple comes up with some great ideas and MSFT monetizes them more effectively.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Come on! (as they say on Arrested Development). Selectively pick a time frame for ANY investment and you could say the same. Who knows what the inflection point is for NOK, if there even is one. But obviously, looking at their precipitous collapse is not particularly relevant to the future, unless you believe in bounces.
But I appreciate how you are so unbalanced in your positive and negative viewpoints. And I have a new theory about your stake in this by the way: range bound options, Sept 12. Am I right? If so, that's an interesting play, but riskier than being long IMO.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Speaking of hype, that's a bit overblown, no? MSFT has a significant installed user base. It's not really fair to call it an unproven OS, IMO it's not really about OS at this point, it's about ecosystem. MSFT still has significant leverage as an ecosystem. Whether they manage to successfully leverage that into the future is indeed a question, but isn't that why we play the game? You make a thesis and pursue it. Mine is, these guys might not knock it out of the park, they might not displace Android and IOS, but they are a pretty good bet to be a third option and if they can do that, NOK is, as you've said elsewhere, a ridiculous bargain at these prices. Not necessarily at 6 or 5 or whatever, that's speculative -- but at these prices, it's simply about breathing deeply and noticing that the market is sometimes a little too fearful. Until it isn't anymore.
In my fantasies, NOK turns around over a period of years and gets back to 25 or even 45. It's possible. But what seems VERY probable in the medium term is that it gets to 4. That's a pretty decent return at these levels.
(I don't think it's all that different in concept from your favored AIG, which I also think is a decent bargain where it is....but I recently sold a chunk off after a decent gain and will wait until 27 or so to buy back in...)
Turning Negative On Nokia ... Again [View article]
Just kidding. I'd also like to say that, although I don't agree with your thesis here, I appreciate the article and opposing perspective, and follow you here not because you're 'right' but because you're thoughtful even when you're not.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Easy, buddy! We have no beef with the mighty Mac (except for techy46 of course), even if legions of mildly panicked apple shareholders feel the need to come around to the ER and kick sand in our faces.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
LOL. Business Insider is the new truth. You disappoint me DVL! You are apparently being humbled by your acheing desire to see your 2$ Sept puts come to fruition.
Will Nokia Recover Or Be Bought? [View article]
Nokia (NOK -9.7%) and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU -7.5%) are off sharply, as investors fret Europe's debt crisis will prevent the cash-burning companies from raising fresh capital. Nokia is now at levels last seen in 1996, and speculation is growing newly-minted tablet seller Microsoft (MSFT) will consider buying its Windows Phone partner. Nonetheless, a Microsoft exec asserts his company has no interest in making its own phones, shooting down prior speculation. [View news story]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
But you're right that it's a facile comparison.
And listen, thanks for your insight, but honestly everything about this discussion is actually quite general and facile and actually has become quite stale and boring.
I'll be back in January 2013 to check in on the Nokia discussion and if the stock is below 4 I'll be giving you the respect you deserve. Good luck, everyone.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Selectively pick a time frame for ANY investment and you could say the same. Who knows what the inflection point is for NOK, if there even is one. But obviously, looking at their precipitous collapse is not particularly relevant to the future, unless you believe in bounces.
But I appreciate how you are so unbalanced in your positive and negative viewpoints. And I have a new theory about your stake in this by the way: range bound options, Sept 12. Am I right? If so, that's an interesting play, but riskier than being long IMO.
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
In my fantasies, NOK turns around over a period of years and gets back to 25 or even 45. It's possible. But what seems VERY probable in the medium term is that it gets to 4. That's a pretty decent return at these levels.
(I don't think it's all that different in concept from your favored AIG, which I also think is a decent bargain where it is....but I recently sold a chunk off after a decent gain and will wait until 27 or so to buy back in...)
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Turning Negative On Nokia ... Again [View article]
Turning Negative On Nokia ... Again [View article]
Turning Negative On Nokia ... Again [View article]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Microsoft May Have Just Hurt Lumia 900 Sales [View article]
Nokia Upgraded Amidst Troubling Times [View article]