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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    If history does indeed rhyme then these are all just setups for the next big bull market. In due time.
    Nov 20, 2012. 07:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    I agree with that, IT; except that I don't doubt that they will come back -- when we least expect it.
    Nov 20, 2012. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    Glad to see some comments bringing this article down to earth. I bought a bit Friday and sold it today. Today's lack of follow-through is a pretty concise answer to the title question. Probably another small push up before we move down?
    Nov 20, 2012. 06:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion - Possible $43 Stock Price In 12 Months? [View article]
    Until I read this article I would never have considered investing in RIMM: I thought, do consumers really have any interest in Blackberry? But you made me reconsider. One quick, unscientific google of 'RIMM BB10' and, honestly, I don't think that I'll be investing in RIMM. But, I wish you all luck! (and will be watching from the sidelines)
    Nov 20, 2012. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take The Bull By The Horns Now [View article]
    Can I also add that I'm a bit confused about why you think that blog is helpful, after reading the posts back to September. There's literally nothing of substance there and he's been calling for imminently higher prices all the way down. If he's your main source of info I humbly recommend that you add some truly contrarian perspectives to your information portfolio! I find your Oct. 30th post, which at least acknowledges the possibility of lower prices ahead, much more reasonable. Good luck and be safe! Sometimes it's better to conserve a bit and live to fight another day.
    Nov 20, 2012. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take The Bull By The Horns Now [View article]
    I just read the true contrarian newsletter (at blogspot) and maybe I'm missing something, but AFAICT there isn't more data there than there is in your own piece. He just states the obvious, 'be greedy when others are fearful'; but he (and you) seem to be missing a key point: with VIX this low, people aren't really that fearful. And, his other point about long bonds and the dollar seems a bit off to me, as both have surged substantially and more recently pulled back, just as equities have gotten a relief rally here. None of this strikes me as conclusive from a fundamental or technical standpoint. I would agree that the 200 DMA isn't a great spot to sell (I sold most of my longs above 1450, and went short) but I also don't see how 1385 is a clear buy. Can you offer a more specific thesis as to why we've put in a bottom? Personally, I think it's conceivable (but doubtful) that this relief rally makes it back to where we were at the time of your last 'be long' article, of oct. 30th, provided that Congress pulls off a miracle. But even then I don't see a clear rationale for re-testing the highs until we explore lower prices. And simplifying it all down to the fiscal cliff is just setting up a straw man to knock over. Earnings season wasn't pretty, Q4 is setting up similarly, Uncle Ben just admitted that he's played out, global recession, etc. etc. I could go on, but, honestly, I'm more interested in hearing a more positive spin and await your response.
    Nov 20, 2012. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperinflation Won't Happen [View article]
    OK, Geode, you're right, all it takes to understand the markets is Econ 101. Except, for instance, in Japan over the last two decades.
    Nov 20, 2012. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems (DDD +6.1%) outperforms after hosting a conference call to address what it called the "materially inaccurate and misleading conclusions" of recent articles about the company. SA's Gray Wolf Research and Douglas W. House had recently taken aim at 3D's accounting and acquisition-fueled growth. Shares still remain well below where they traded prior to last Monday's decline. SSYS +4.8%. (transcript[View news story]
    A PE of 65 in a highly volatile macro market situation and they blame on article on a web site (a great and powerful web site, for sure, but...) for stock price declines?
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Ending The Bear Raid [View article]
    I don't think anything is reasonable or unreasonable in a momentum tech name, except extreme caution in position sizing. Maintain reasonable allocation; don't chase out-performance; beware high beta in downdrafts; and none of these concerns should be issues.
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Ending The Bear Raid [View article]
    If you have some idea that the market is about anything other than the manipulation of equity prices to shake out weak hands, then I think you should avoid it! What you're describing is just the way that market makers pay their bills. If you're an investor it shouldn't matter to you, as you should be ignoring these moves, and if you're a trader then this should be well understood.
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Ending The Bear Raid [View article]
    The author's reaction seems a bit hysterical to me. DDD had a great run, it needed to pull back. Momentum stocks get punished during market downturns. This one is bouncing nicely but if the market hasn't really found a true swing low here, don't blame it on a single analyst's opinion (or on this comment) if this name hasn't either.
    Nov 19, 2012. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: 30-Year Bonds [View article]
    Interesting thoughts, Matt, as always. I remain long the 30 year via TLT, but reduced my position (up 4%) by half; I'm not as confident as you are about the macro/equity situation. Like you, I've been expecting a bounce in SPX the last few days that just isn't materializing. Not sure if this means we won't get it at all or if it means it will be more dramatic.

    I do think that one of the least acknowledged aspects of the fiscal cliff is a scarcity in long bonds that it may provoke. That, coupled with general uncertainty in the markets and the continued short interest (lots of weak hands, too, IMO) in the 30 year could in my opinion lead the 30 year to new heights. But, a lot of ifs there.

    As always, thanks for your excellent insight.
    Nov 14, 2012. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Trade An Improving Labor Market Momentum [View article]
    There is nothing more certain than these self evident truths, that Gold and Apple and real estate will always go up and they will never have any corrections and they are never in the midst of a bubble. Until they come down to earth. Gold quite simply doesn't serve the purpose it once did (smart money sold it just like equities after QEinfinity). And, come to think of it, neither does Apple. Real estate, maybe - if inflation is in the cards. Which is a big question.

    And, I hate to say it, but Mr. Market took those job numbers today, suckered in as many folks as possible in as short a time as possible, and just laughed them to pieces. (I wish I'd gotten more short this morning than I did!) Buckle up.
    Nov 2, 2012. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors' Greatest Weakness [View article]
    I'm not buying IBM right now.
    Nov 2, 2012. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors' Greatest Weakness [View article]
    Of all the investing mistakes I've made this year, I think that not pulling the trigger on shorting apple at 700 will be the one I regret most.
    Nov 2, 2012. 08:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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