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  • Nokia (NOK -5.6%) roundup: 1) Nokia has introduced the Asha 205 and 206, both of which go for $62 unsubsidized. The 205 sports a QWERTY keyboard and a dedicated Facebook button. Strong Asha sales have partly offset collapsing Symbian sales. 2) RBC's Mark Sue notes Nokia's Windows Phone 8 models are sold out at U.S. retailers, and thinks Q4 smartphone sales could exceed his forecast of 6.5M. Nokia's initial shipment volumes to retailers are still unknown. 3) Nokia Siemens says it's hoping to take advantage of Huawei and ZTE's U.S. political problems to gain share. [View news story]
    Tell me about it, Seppo; but it probably is worthwhile to remember that market moves are made by design, explicitly to try to shake investors (and traders) out of their positions.

    If you have a long time frame and you're a believer (I'm assuming that any money you have in a name like this is money you can comfortably lose), you should probably not even look at the numbers with NOK, because they are going to drive you crazy! Not only is it extremely volatile, I think it's hugely manipulated; I started buying what became a substantial chunk back in June, followed it down, adding significantly to my position and then back up and along the way have become rather more skittish about the long term story, largely because I'm concerned about the macro picture and am reluctant to have much long term equity exposure at the moment. But it is a fun stock to trade, I'll say that. And, I'm not sure how long you've followed it but again and again and again I've seen selling on good news after a fairly large move up in price. Maybe this time will be different, though, the pieces seem to be coming together? But I still think (I'm assuming the broader market isn't done pulling back yet) it'll be back below three before it really takes off again. The key of course if you're buying and holding is to truly do just that. Forget about it, entirely, is my advice, if you're not going to actively trade it.
    Nov 26, 2012. 07:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    Careful! Interesting post by Josh Brown on this subject today, I think he's right as rain on this one:

    Which is not to say necessarily that NOK or RIMM or YHOO are bad names at the moment, but more a general reflection on what truly represents value at times like these. If we really have found a bottom in the broader market here, then I'd say you're right on the money. If we're just beginning a new leg down then these names will come back to earth in a hurry.
    Nov 26, 2012. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    Today's NOK action seemed telling to me; as every other risk asset on the face of the earth ramped up towards the end of the day, it just kept floating down along an obvious vwap, on pretty decent volume. Such a nice tidy exit queue. Greece will give NOK and the market a nice pop tomorrow morning but I'd expect to see more of the same for NOK starting at around 8:30 am? But then again, maybe not....! Time will tell.
    Nov 26, 2012. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TLT And SPY: Combining Multiple Market Timing Systems [View article]
    Apparently, at least one more day. And, if Washington pushes us over the cliff, I'm expecting treasuries to be bid fairly well, as new 'safe' debt issuance will plummet, if only briefly.
    Nov 26, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    I disagree with Charles on that point, obviously, and have in fact happily been a winner rather than a loser, but to each his own! That said, NOK is a devilish stock to time, because it is so manipulated. I personally am waiting to see how the next few weeks play out in the markets, as NOK has been a big loser (and in fact a good advance signal for me) in periods of fear and I see the overall markets ripe to pull back here. My fantasy scenario involves SP500 @ 1225 in relatively short order, at which point I will be buying NOK and everything else with both hands. At the very least, I would wait a few days for this massive move up in NOK to be digested.
    Nov 26, 2012. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    These numbers don't actually mean anything without a sense of your overall portfolio. I would say that over time money management -- which says that having more than 2% of your overall portfolio in a single, fairly risky equity play isn't a great idea -- should win out. But, congratulations and good luck (I myself was long 10k shares of NOK for a while but am for the moment fully out and in fact bought a very few puts Friday). Also, I'd say that Paolo's notion (I had similar fears) seems to be playing out a bit here, as NOK is heading for a 3.40 handle. Please understand that I am fully sympathetic to the long NOK perspective and intend to buy back in eventually, but I've been watching this stock carefully all summer and have seen this pattern before: MM's boost stock up beyond reasonable value, retail investors suddenly love it, it breaks out, it flushes. Be careful out there!
    Nov 26, 2012. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    I do have quite a bit of cash on hand right now, basically since QE was announced, as I read that as a sell signal. I intend to stay that way for the next few weeks, at least. I see it as a trader's market right now. I think that the sell side arguments for buying equities -- inflation! bonds are scary! you don't want to miss out when all the cash on the sidelines rushes in! -- all smack of desperation. I have had some luck trading in and out of TLT, SPY puts and various long equity positions these last few months. I'm treating my (smallish) long equity positions (when I have them, right now I'm long TLT, waiting to short the SPY) with the same care and caution that I'm treating my short positions.
    Nov 26, 2012. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    Not a very convincing argument for buying, certainly not for holding.
    Nov 26, 2012. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Be Bullish - At Least For A While [View article]
    Nov 24, 2012. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short U.S. Bonds Is Now [View article]
    To my eye, gold and equities are increasingly correlated in the risk-on trade and the long bond - so far - remains the risk-off trade. I also tend to agree with commenters who note that shorting the long bond is a crowded trade right now. I've been trading TLT as a hdge on equity markets since late September and have been quite pleased with the results. I expect 130 if markets continue to break down here.
    Nov 24, 2012. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    Me too. I'm recalling this summer's NOK action; this stock has been deeply manipulated in the past and I see no reason for that to end here; I don't trust SPY 1345-1410 in the last week and I trust NOK 2.75-3.50 even less.
    Nov 24, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Research In Motion And Nokia Near Year-End [View article]
    I did exactly the same Leon. it's interesting, amazing even to see the turnaround in sentiment around NOK, but I also think we're due a pullback here.
    Nov 24, 2012. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion - Possible $43 Stock Price In 12 Months? [View article]
    Well, ok, 14% later I'm willing to admit I was wrong on that one. Congrats, folks.
    Nov 23, 2012. 11:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks: Did A New Bull Market Begin On Monday? [View article]
    Of course that works both ways, if it tops, say, this coming Wednesday, then your few % is in the red column, and those us government bonds will provide excellent returns on price if not yields.
    Nov 22, 2012. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After steadily climbing today on volume over 2x its daily average, Nokia (NOK +13.7%) is at levels last seen in August. Optimism regarding Lumia 920 sales following some positive datapoints (I, II) could be a factor, though Swedish i-bank Handelsbanken cautioned this morning early Lumia 800/900 sales triggered a similar response. SA's Jacob Steinberg pointed out today net institutional ownership of Nokia has been rising. [View news story]
    I'm out today @ 3.30 (from 2.50), but wish you all luck! I fear that I've seen this episode before.
    Nov 21, 2012. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment