More on central bank purchases of stocks: It's a quest for yield as a survey shows 23% saying they own shares or plan to buy them. The SNB - furiously buying up euros for the last 2 years - has taken the money and boosted its equity holdings to about 12% of reserves. The BOJ plans to double its holdings of equity ETFs to $35.2B. Not participating (yet) are the Fed and BOE - neither with a mandate to own shares directly. [View news story]
"You can't see the other side of the trade," says Jim Chanos, holding court on CNBC for the hour. Be careful looking at 13Fs, he cautions, as managers cleverly put on positions designed to hedge or even mask their true intentions (he's currently long DE, but short other machinery stocks). "Servers are PCs on a rack," he says, not surprised Blackstone backed off DELL (he remains short, along with HPQ). Apple (AAPL)? He's long both it and Samsung (SSNLF.PK), but reminds it's more of a hedge against his PC shorts. China - along with any company (VALE) dependent on it - is still a short (presentation). [View news story]
David Einhorn likes Apple's (AAPL) feisty share buyback : "We applaud Apple's decision to borrow money and return excess capital to shareholders, an idea that was off the table only months ago. This positive development represents a more shareholder friendly capital allocation policy and demonstrates the conviction of Apple's management and board in the Company's future." [View news story]
They could innovate, and make high quality products, like they used to.
Markets recover after a brief crash caused by an erroneous report the President had been injured in an explosion at the White House. The news came about from AP's twitter feed being hacked. The White House says the President is fine, and the AP's White House correspondent calls the report "obviously false." [View news story]
my thoughts exactly -- money went immediately to long bonds.
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
The sad thing is, sell side has ordinary folks who know nothing about markets thinking that they need or should be 100% invested at all times or they are "missing out". Which works great in bull markets, and markedly less so in choppy or bear markets. Markets can't be timed but they can be managed, if you just tame your greed a bit.
Ritholz is, in my opinion, classic sell side, btw. I like what he has to say for the most part, but when it comes right down to it what he does for a living is sell stocks to retail investors.
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
Shorting this market full of easy money is crazy, but shorting US paper is infinitely crazier. The main reason this market may find another few steps up is because retail is over-shorting it; but retail is DRAMATICALLY over-shorting US paper. Look at TLT vs SPY over the last two months and tell me which is the crazy short, heading into a historically strong bond season (through July), with clear deflationary signals from commodities?
Gold And Silver - Not As Precious As Last Week [View article]
Stephen, I think Whitehawk's point is, when you browbeat others and puff your chest out that way you look like a chump. Not to say you are a chump, I typically appreciate your commentary. Just, that you look like a chump when you get all childish and insecure on us. Best wishes.
The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
This article seems fairly prescient at this point in time, as JGB yields have become increasingly volatile and JGBS has made some ground. But it hasn't done nearly as well as a long TLT position, it's worth noting. Not too many people want to admit right now that the Japanese 'experiment' we're watching is most likely a horrific accident in the making.
"I am amazed every day at this rally," says Jim Cramer. "It's very unusual to have the cyclicals, the techs, the financials and the drugs all move at once. It's reminiscent of other times where we saw a radical revaluation in the market." While others may see it as signs of another bubble developing, Cramer sees little evidence. "The S&P is only at 15 times earnings," he notes, and the bond market continues to be a place where you can't get any return. This rally Cramer says, is for real. [View news story]
Not taking profits is not taking profits, no matter where you bought it.
Rates can't go lower until they do. When every magazine cover says bonds are in a bubble you can be pretty sure they're not; even with the last few days of equity rally, long bonds are outperforming stocks significantly over the last month. Perhaps by Q3 bonds will be in a bubble, if the CBs keep blowing bubbles and the Euro implodes. Between now and then, I expect outperformance for 7+ UST.
Stars Continue To Align Against Gold, Goldman Sachs Targets $1,270 Per Ounce In 2014 [View article]
If you seriously think a Goldman rec is anything other than a contrarian indicator well, I've got an excellent bridge for your consideration, cheap -- for you only, my very dear friend.
Bill Gross says he has changed his mind on Treasury bonds maturing in 10-years or less thanks to Japan's epic monetary easing. The premise: yields that look meager to U.S. investors look rich to the Japanese. "They [Treasurys] yield 125 basis points more" than what investors are getting on a 10-year JGB. (Previously: JGB yields plummet)[View news story]
TLT is up, what, 7% in a month? Stocks are flattish, gold is down, cash is dying on the vine. Bond seasonality under QE is a delightful thing.
That said, I'm expecting another pullback to c. the 50 sma, Goss touting it only reinforces the feeling.
Bill Gross says he has changed his mind on Treasury bonds maturing in 10-years or less thanks to Japan's epic monetary easing. The premise: yields that look meager to U.S. investors look rich to the Japanese. "They [Treasurys] yield 125 basis points more" than what investors are getting on a 10-year JGB. (Previously: JGB yields plummet)[View news story]
It's a good call -- about a month late. I'm taking Gundlach over Goss in any bond-sumo wrestling match. As far as all you bond bears, yields are not taking off any time soon, equities have a lot more to fear in the next months IMO. Long term UST has handily outperformed the SPX over the last month.
More on central bank purchases of stocks: It's a quest for yield as a survey shows 23% saying they own shares or plan to buy them. The SNB - furiously buying up euros for the last 2 years - has taken the money and boosted its equity holdings to about 12% of reserves. The BOJ plans to double its holdings of equity ETFs to $35.2B. Not participating (yet) are the Fed and BOE - neither with a mandate to own shares directly. [View news story]
"You can't see the other side of the trade," says Jim Chanos, holding court on CNBC for the hour. Be careful looking at 13Fs, he cautions, as managers cleverly put on positions designed to hedge or even mask their true intentions (he's currently long DE, but short other machinery stocks). "Servers are PCs on a rack," he says, not surprised Blackstone backed off DELL (he remains short, along with HPQ). Apple (AAPL)? He's long both it and Samsung (SSNLF.PK), but reminds it's more of a hedge against his PC shorts. China - along with any company (VALE) dependent on it - is still a short (presentation). [View news story]
David Einhorn likes Apple's (AAPL) feisty share buyback : "We applaud Apple's decision to borrow money and return excess capital to shareholders, an idea that was off the table only months ago. This positive development represents a more shareholder friendly capital allocation policy and demonstrates the conviction of Apple's management and board in the Company's future." [View news story]
Markets recover after a brief crash caused by an erroneous report the President had been injured in an explosion at the White House. The news came about from AP's twitter feed being hacked. The White House says the President is fine, and the AP's White House correspondent calls the report "obviously false." [View news story]
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
Ritholz is, in my opinion, classic sell side, btw. I like what he has to say for the most part, but when it comes right down to it what he does for a living is sell stocks to retail investors.
5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
Gold And Silver - Not As Precious As Last Week [View article]
The Time To Short Japanese Government Bonds Is Now [View article]
This S&P 500 Rally Does Not Have Good Legs [View article]
"I am amazed every day at this rally," says Jim Cramer. "It's very unusual to have the cyclicals, the techs, the financials and the drugs all move at once. It's reminiscent of other times where we saw a radical revaluation in the market." While others may see it as signs of another bubble developing, Cramer sees little evidence. "The S&P is only at 15 times earnings," he notes, and the bond market continues to be a place where you can't get any return. This rally Cramer says, is for real. [View news story]
Bond Bubble And The Great Rotation [View article]
Stars Continue To Align Against Gold, Goldman Sachs Targets $1,270 Per Ounce In 2014 [View article]
Bill Gross says he has changed his mind on Treasury bonds maturing in 10-years or less thanks to Japan's epic monetary easing. The premise: yields that look meager to U.S. investors look rich to the Japanese. "They [Treasurys] yield 125 basis points more" than what investors are getting on a 10-year JGB. (Previously: JGB yields plummet) [View news story]
That said, I'm expecting another pullback to c. the 50 sma, Goss touting it only reinforces the feeling.
Bill Gross says he has changed his mind on Treasury bonds maturing in 10-years or less thanks to Japan's epic monetary easing. The premise: yields that look meager to U.S. investors look rich to the Japanese. "They [Treasurys] yield 125 basis points more" than what investors are getting on a 10-year JGB. (Previously: JGB yields plummet) [View news story]
The Case For Buying Treasuries Now [View article]