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pollyserial

pollyserial
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  • Time To Buy U.S. Treasuries [View article]
    ...but it has been exactly those companies who have ripped the faces off of shorts all year and I don't expect that to change in the short-term.
    Aug 19 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy U.S. Treasuries [View article]
    I'm with you, Daniel...but not quite yet.

    I think that perhaps the long bond needs to be crushed just a bit more, so that absolutely everyone hates/fears it, and the last long term holders panic. Right now I think the negativity is only at about 80%.
    ; )

    Once the 10 year moves above 3 and TLT moves below the 200 MA, I expect a severe capitulation bottom. On the other hand, if it finds a few days of support near these levels I may join you, tentatively....to my mind this will potentially be a multi-month hold.
    Aug 19 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bernanke Bull Market Ending Along With The Chairman's Departure? [View article]
    Interesting article Joseph, I'm not sure any more that Obama has the guts/integrity to take on the banks but the chart is certainly lining up for interesting times ahead. The color you provide here is excellent. I too am looking for a bottom in the long bond....waiting patiently. My hunch is that the 10 year has to test 3%, most likely dramatically so I remain almost 100% cash. Had a small short in EWW which worked out well but otherwise I am waiting for a last squeeze higher to sell this market, potentially after a September taper doesn't occur? But, this market makes a mockery of fundamental analysis of any kind it seems, I find myself strictly following technical levels, which has saved me from myself pretty consistently this year.
    Aug 19 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top StockTalkers [View instapost]
    I've gotten many good ideas from OM, Joe Springer, Neobloviscar.
    Aug 13 06:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy SPY, Avoid Emerging Markets [View article]
    Too early to buy EM. And, I'm not sure that EM will go up when SPY goes down, the correlation is on a longer cycle than that.
    Aug 4 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy SPY, Avoid Emerging Markets [View article]
    That comment was intended for woodog, so I'm not so much expecting a guarantee as finding the idea of one to be patently ridiculous. As far as the trade idea, interesting pairs trade, it makes some sense from a trend-following perspective, but I personally am not much interested in either of them in a long-term way at the moment.
    Aug 4 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy SPY, Avoid Emerging Markets [View article]
    Is that a money-back GUARANTEE?
    Aug 3 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha fires a shot at Bloomberg, StreetAccount [View news story]
    Could we please get some access to stocktalks via mobile app? And some way to check in on our stream or community? These are the most useful parts of SA for me and I can't do any of it on my phone.
    Jul 29 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Netflix Looks To Be A Really Good Play Right Now [View article]
    I would agree that Netflix's inventory isn't great. I'm a subscriber, because I'm lazy, but often think about leaving.
    Jul 29 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UVXY Inflows Reveal A Paradox That Could Be Preventing A Market Correction  [View instapost]
    Not going to do the facebook 'like' thing, but, enjoyable article Joseph, as always! Thanks. Interesting theory.
    Jul 28 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "I was wrong about Treasurys (TLT, TBT)," Jeff Gundlach tells the WSJ of his recent expectation the 10-year yield would never hit 2.5%. However, he tells CNBC, "July will not be a repeat of May and June ... the liquidation cycle appears to have run its course with emerging market bonds (EMB), junk bonds (HYG, JNK), munis (MUB), and MBS (MBB) now recovering sharply." Gundlach has scheduled a special conference call for this afternoon. [View news story]
    So very pleased that I saw the writing on the wall late April and closed out my vary large (from 2010) position in DBLTX @ 11.40. I do still think he may be right here about treasuries bouncing back, though I'm inclined to think that the market will want to see who's ready to sell IEF below 100? (conveniently aligned with the 200 sma)
    Jun 27 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Bond Markets Pressure Emerging Markets, Australia Gets Caught In The Middle [View article]
    Wow. Interesting choice of shorts. Those both seem a bit oversold, no? I'm long EWW from about 58, slowly selling it off. Won't hold below 58 if it heads that way. Deeply regretting not also getting long EPHE a few days back. Not ready to be long or short TLT, although I think it must find it's way below 107, at least?, and I suspect it makes it below 100 by mid-July? But, I always enjoy your perspective and thanks for another very interesting read.
    Jun 27 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Own Gold [View article]
    I think it's illegal to melt nickels? But an interesting idea. But isn't it better to just be nimble in the markets, stay aware of trends, and not ride a losing trade? That seems like a great way to retain purchasing power.
    Jun 27 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 174 ETFs You Should Never Buy [View article]
    full disclosure: I sometimes buy UVXY, I'm not sure why..... ; )
    Jun 26 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 174 ETFs You Should Never Buy [View article]
    There's nothing new to say about leveraged etfs. They're excellent shorts on short time frames. That's it.
    Jun 26 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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