DC Housing Bear's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/148150/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/119970-history-indicates-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-384102 384102 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:23:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114350-we-may-see-mortgage-rates-fall-to-3-5?source=feed#comment-355698 355698 Wed, 14 Jan 2009 13:13:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109710-will-lower-mortgage-rates-help-housing-recover?source=feed#comment-323939 323939 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 12:54:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106430-economic-conditions-force-27-to-put-homeowner-plans-on-hold?source=feed#comment-308405 308405
This just goes to show up stupid and uninformed most people are and how the media continues to reinforce this misconception. Owning a home is usually a terrible "investment" if you can even call it that. If you run a simple cash flow it would be extremely clear why that's the case. Why people think paying interest to the bank isn't "throwing money away" as well is beyond me. If the current economic crisis is an indicator of anything its how most Americans are completely clueless about their personal finances and economic policy must take into account if we're to avoid these kinds of problems in the futures. ]]> Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:00:05 -0500
This just goes to show up stupid and uninformed most people are and how the media continues to reinforce this misconception. Owning a home is usually a terrible "investment" if you can even call it that. If you run a simple cash flow it would be extremely clear why that's the case. Why people think paying interest to the bank isn't "throwing money away" as well is beyond me. If the current economic crisis is an indicator of anything its how most Americans are completely clueless about their personal finances and economic policy must take into account if we're to avoid these kinds of problems in the futures. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103040-you-are-not-as-dumb-as-the-bear-market-makes-you-feel?source=feed#comment-294856 294856
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You have to be the stupidest person on earth to still think that any of these morons have ANY idea what direction of ANY stock will be in ANY time frame when they can't even tell where the S&P is going AT ALL.

What a completely worthless post. ]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:04:08 -0400
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You have to be the stupidest person on earth to still think that any of these morons have ANY idea what direction of ANY stock will be in ANY time frame when they can't even tell where the S&P is going AT ALL.

What a completely worthless post. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97884-it-did-happen-cramer-s-mad-money-9-29-08?source=feed#comment-269964 269964 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 18:15:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97884-it-did-happen-cramer-s-mad-money-9-29-08?source=feed#comment-269963 269963 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 18:13:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95740-options-trader-tough-decisions-tuesday?source=feed#comment-255983 255983
Enough with the government bailouts, the only road that leads to is the mother of all bailouts that will finally sink the entire system, in fact, maybe we're already there. We cannot continue to privatize profits and socialize losses. It's time for this country to take its medicine and I don't see any better time to do it than now.

So I guess what I'm trying to say Phil is, STOP YOUR WHINING. The government is not there to guaranty that you make money trading options.]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 12:46:00 -0400
Enough with the government bailouts, the only road that leads to is the mother of all bailouts that will finally sink the entire system, in fact, maybe we're already there. We cannot continue to privatize profits and socialize losses. It's time for this country to take its medicine and I don't see any better time to do it than now.

So I guess what I'm trying to say Phil is, STOP YOUR WHINING. The government is not there to guaranty that you make money trading options.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91794-how-low-before-housing-blows?source=feed#comment-234937 234937 Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:14:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91787-will-a-7-mortgage-threat-doom-fannie-and-freddie?source=feed#comment-234887 234887
I have yet to read a cogent, logical argument as to why we need the GSEs.

As for Bill Miller, I agree with the last comment. What a joker, even if your post made any sense, you lost all credibility with that last sentence. If this bear market has taught us anything it's that most "successful" fund managers or gurus are not as smart or savvy as the media wants us to think. They simply employed a strategy that worked until it stopped working. Don't be fooled by randomness. ]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:29:10 -0400
I have yet to read a cogent, logical argument as to why we need the GSEs.

As for Bill Miller, I agree with the last comment. What a joker, even if your post made any sense, you lost all credibility with that last sentence. If this bear market has taught us anything it's that most "successful" fund managers or gurus are not as smart or savvy as the media wants us to think. They simply employed a strategy that worked until it stopped working. Don't be fooled by randomness. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81292-mortgage-rates-fly-higher?source=feed#comment-186531 186531 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 13:28:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77352-get-ready-to-short-homebuilders?source=feed#comment-168366 168366
I won't touch these stocks anymore either, really hard to tell where they go from here. Speculators could push them higher on BAD news that's not as bad as expected. Go figure. ]]> Thu, 15 May 2008 17:29:44 -0400
I won't touch these stocks anymore either, really hard to tell where they go from here. Speculators could push them higher on BAD news that's not as bad as expected. Go figure. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77193-a-simpler-explanation-for-bill-miller-s-losing-streak?source=feed#comment-168357 168357 Thu, 15 May 2008 17:23:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77193-a-simpler-explanation-for-bill-miller-s-losing-streak?source=feed#comment-167534 167534
Try reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel and Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb for starters. Only idiots buy mutual funds and anyone here who thinks they can really beat the market over any extended period of time is delusional. Try Vegas why don't you. ]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 13:16:37 -0400
Try reading A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel and Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb for starters. Only idiots buy mutual funds and anyone here who thinks they can really beat the market over any extended period of time is delusional. Try Vegas why don't you. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70786-tuesday-s-action-sign-of-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-134757 134757 Tue, 01 Apr 2008 16:46:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69091-the-end-of-u-s-investing-as-we-know-it?source=feed#comment-128447 128447
Americans need to come to grips with the fact that you can't borrow your way to prosperity. The past six years was make believe and the only way we can move forward is to give it all back and start over.]]> Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:34:50 -0400
Americans need to come to grips with the fact that you can't borrow your way to prosperity. The past six years was make believe and the only way we can move forward is to give it all back and start over.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68618-thinking-about-the-bear-stearns-bailout?source=feed#comment-127909 127909 Mon, 17 Mar 2008 19:14:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65809-house-price-momentum-the-good-news?source=feed#comment-119396 119396
There are several very powerful mechanisms that are going to cause home prices nationally, and in bubble markets in particular, to continue to fall:

1. Debt service ratios for home ownership must revert to historic levels. Homeowners simply can't continue to spend upwards of 40-50% of their gross income on their mortgage, this is particularly true in California.

2. Mortgage rates will continue to rise. Long-term mortgage rates are still historically low, sooner or later, these need to adjust upward to reflect a more realistic risk premium and increased inflation expectations.

3. The cost differential between renting v. owning must come closer to parity. Certainly there should be an ownership premium, but in most markets, again, California is a prime example, the monthly outlay per month can be 2-3 times the rent for a comparable property. As consumers get squeezed through higher commodity prices and record debt levels, renting is suddenly looking much better than owning.

So the bottom line is this: home prices will continue to decline until these ratios are normalized, PERIOD. In some markets this will be quicker, in others, we're going to see a housing depression like we've never seen. Anything else people say until then is just noise. ]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:21:22 -0500
There are several very powerful mechanisms that are going to cause home prices nationally, and in bubble markets in particular, to continue to fall:

1. Debt service ratios for home ownership must revert to historic levels. Homeowners simply can't continue to spend upwards of 40-50% of their gross income on their mortgage, this is particularly true in California.

2. Mortgage rates will continue to rise. Long-term mortgage rates are still historically low, sooner or later, these need to adjust upward to reflect a more realistic risk premium and increased inflation expectations.

3. The cost differential between renting v. owning must come closer to parity. Certainly there should be an ownership premium, but in most markets, again, California is a prime example, the monthly outlay per month can be 2-3 times the rent for a comparable property. As consumers get squeezed through higher commodity prices and record debt levels, renting is suddenly looking much better than owning.

So the bottom line is this: home prices will continue to decline until these ratios are normalized, PERIOD. In some markets this will be quicker, in others, we're going to see a housing depression like we've never seen. Anything else people say until then is just noise. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/63150-what-the-housing-apocalypse-prophets-aren-t-revealing?source=feed#comment-114822 114822
FACT: for 6 solid years, we experienced the most dramatic housing run-up in US history.

FACT: reversion to the mean is a very powerful statistical phenomenon.

FACT: most people with negative equity in their homes will walk away.

FACT: in many bubble markets, it still costs half as much money to rent than to own.

FACT: the value of residential real estate is tied to both interest rates AND personal income, at some point it doesn't matter how low rates if prices are too high.

FACT: there is a limit to how much debt the American public can take on.

FACT: a recession will force home prices even lower.

This is all common sense, it's the beginning of the great debt unwinding, if it wasn't subprime mortgages it would have been something else. ]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2008 02:00:18 -0500
FACT: for 6 solid years, we experienced the most dramatic housing run-up in US history.

FACT: reversion to the mean is a very powerful statistical phenomenon.

FACT: most people with negative equity in their homes will walk away.

FACT: in many bubble markets, it still costs half as much money to rent than to own.

FACT: the value of residential real estate is tied to both interest rates AND personal income, at some point it doesn't matter how low rates if prices are too high.

FACT: there is a limit to how much debt the American public can take on.

FACT: a recession will force home prices even lower.

This is all common sense, it's the beginning of the great debt unwinding, if it wasn't subprime mortgages it would have been something else. ]]>