Plasticman

Suntech Poised To Deliver Beat and Raise Quarter?

Wow Cowen really blew that one. Looks like the rumor on the street was much more accurate. I haven't seen much commentary. I see they guided down on revenues, which is not good. Is that based on supply issues or sales issues?

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

Final post on the subject. According to pm-connect.com the spot price for indium today (2/8/08) is $425 - $575/kg. Here is a link to a paper by the Indium Corporation that was updated on 9/07 www.indium.com/solar/i....
It goes into great detail of how they believe that supply will meet future demand. They do have a graph showing demand exceeding supply and using up reserves starting in 2009, but they follow it up with a comment that that scenario doesn't have new production and greater usage efficiencies factored in that will come from all the improvements that they state in the paper. They basically believe that as long as they are given the proper notice (2 years), they can meet any demand. Another chart shows that prices peaked in 2005 and have been dropping since then. Today's spot price confirms that.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

In the 1970s they said we were 10 years away from depleting our oil reserves. That was for a commodity that many people cared about. In the past, very few people cared about indium. Now a lot do. Indium does not only come from zinc mining, but that supply has been plentiful enough in the past to take care of the negligible demand. Now that it is becoming a valuable product people will start looking for it, and voila, they will find it. Here is an excerpt on the subject from electronicdisplay.com. They are mainly talking about how it will affect flat panels, but they do mention solar.

"Indium Corp. of America (Utica, NY), in an apparent restoration endeavor against the WSJ article, published a press release that says it’s confident of the sustained indium-metal supply. The company insists the supply imbalance occurred because of a time lag between emerging demand and the presently available supply and that “...higher prices will draw forward additional supplies which will alleviate any scarcity.” " - I expect that a company that only deals with indium would know more than either you or me. Plus they benefit from scarcity talk since that drives the price higher, yet they are talking it down.

Here is an excerpt from displaydaily.com
"Solar cells are growing in importance and have a distinct similarity to FPDs. For example, the recently announced Sharp Gen 10 fab for $3.2B will be used not only for LCD panels but for manufacturing solar cells as well. In one year, the fab is expected to be able to produce enough solar cells to produce 1000MW of power indefinitely. This is serious power, the equivalent of a medium-sized nuclear power plant. Is Sharp likely to close this fab due to a lack of indium? Not likely!

Insight Media sees three ways of easing the coming indium shortage. First, the existing zinc and lead miners are likely to recognize the economic value of indium and make more of an effort to refine it from their ores. Second, dedicated indium mines could be developed. While $533M may not be a big market to an established multinational mining company, it is a lot in terms of a startup.


Finally, substitute transparent electrodes could be developed that reduce the demand for Indium...

Increased indium supplies and the availability of substitutes make it unlikely the LCD industry will ever need to turn away customers due to a lack of indium. That Sharp Gen 10 fab, with its 2,850 by 3,050 mm substrates, will probably find a way to operate, even with indium at $1000 (or more) per KG."

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

I will stick with CIGS. My research on idium points to a mining and refining short term issue, not an ultimate source issue. Right now a considerable source of idium is thrown away by the major ore miners. Now that the price has risen about 8X they are now looking into ways to refine it from their waste streams instead of throwing it away. Also new mines are being developed. The Indium Company issued a press release talking about how the shortage was short term not long term, right after the Wall Street Journal reported on the shortage possibly causing a problem with the manufacture of flat panel displays. Indium is about 4X more plentiful than silver in the earth's crust. It is used in miniscule amounts in FPDs and Solar Cells.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

Jack, I understand your statement about trailing twelve vs. 2007 calendar earnings. According to Yahoo Finance and Etrade, the consensus estimates are for -$0.06 2007 and $1.43 2008. For the first three quarters of 2007, CSIQ has total earnings of -$0.23, so they would need to earn $0.49 in the fourth quarter to get to your number. The consensus estimate that I see for the fourth quarter is $0.18 with a low of $.15 and a high of $.22.

I am not trying to criticize your methodology, I just want to find a source that gives me (and you) credible numbers.

Zawy, I have not heard any discussion on Indium. Please show me a link. Obviously Popular Science missed that when they made Nanosolar Top Innovation of the Year 3 months ago. I don't claim to be an expert, but I am an engineer and can weed through the hype easily. I agree with Jack in that this discussion is helping to bring out the facts, and separate them from the hype. It is the whole issue of not being able to get to the facts that is so frustrating for me. SOLF is a good example of that.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

Sorry about the double post. The first one didn't show up when I checked later, so I rewrote it.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

I was not suggesting that SOLF was a buy. In fact, I have shorted it in the past for many of the same reasons that Finnerman suggested. I was just using them as an example of earnings information out there that doesn't make sense. Maybe something is getting screwed up in the ADR translation.

Personally I like the solar companies that use CIGS technology. I believe that eventually they will take over the market, and the silicon based companies will implode because they won't be able to compete. Today there was a good article written in the Motley Fool that does a good job of comparing the technology. Here is a link to it. www.fool.com/investing.... The only aspect that I believe that they got wrong is the statement about CIGS having a lower efficiency. While that is true for most of the companies, Nanosolar states an efficiency in the 20% range, which is right there with the silicon manufacturers.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

I'm not saying that I recommend SOLF, because I agree, they have had some weird dealings. In fact, I have shorted them in the past. They are just an example of numbers that don't add up for some reason.

I am a big believe that in the long run the CIGS companies are going to be the big winners, and the silicon based companies will implode because they will be priced out of the market. There is a new article out by the Motley Fool today on the subject. The only thing that they state that I disagree with is that CIGS is automatically less efficient. The Nanosolar technology seems to be at par with silicon. Here is a link www.fool.com/investing...

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

What happened to Conergy (ceyhf) today? They are down over 20% with no news. Nanosolar had announced a strategic arrangement with them in 2006 and I thought they might be a good way to take advantage of nanosolar's technology with a public company.

Why Canadian Solar is the Best Solar Stock

I would love to invest in the "right" solar company. I say "right" because I believe there are going to be major winners and losers depending on the cost of their technology. Right now the company with the lowest cost technology, Nanosolar is not public.

Now to the problem. I can't find a source for accurate numbers. For instance if I pull up quotes on E-trade for CSIQ, and SOLF I see EPS of $-0.44 and $0.3252 respectively. However if I go to the earnings screen it shows quarterly numbers that add up to $-0.42 and $2.47 respectively. Both numbers for CSIQ are very different than the article above, and the quarterly numbers for SOLF don't add up to the trailing 12. If I go to Yahoo Finance for SOLF it shows EPS of $.36 and shows the same quarterly numbers as E-trade (in analyst estimates screen) for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters. So what is going on?