Little Turtle

Two Trades for 2008: Subprime and TIPS

Mr. Salmon,
Since you pose as a serious professional, I wonder why you don't explain how much purchasing power a TIP's buyer IS LOSING considering that U.S. M3 (inflation) is running now at around 17% a year!
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People, wake up!
Do you know that CPI (some items) is self-adjusting and self-correcting according to people's choices rather than on absolute price of goods?
Are you aware that CPI is bogusly build?

Expecting Silver to Lead Gold on Both the Upside and the Downside

Lisa, see //stockcharts.com for P&F charts.
They are within the best websitesites for technical analysis.
I agree, silver could retrace down to $15, but then retry a higher high.
Many studies are showing that in defationary or inflationary busts, prcious metals are performing badly. Is this time going to be different ?
...

Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"

Shaun, I know it would be less glamorous for you, but why don't you post all these questions directly to Mr. Rogers? He has a public website and would certainly accept people's emails. Asking these questions to us here is useless and makes you look more inexperienced than you possibly are.

Time for Nuclear Energy and Uranium Stocks to Shine?

If you dig in this previous article, you'll find a better index with more components: seekingalpha.com/artic...

How Chinese Economic Growth Benefits Japan and Brazil

I agree, but momentarily with a twist.
Until the sub prime mess is totally out from the world bank's balance sheets (includig Japanese) and untill we see the 3rd leg of the Chinese correction (economy is strong, but rates are rising and stocks are still bubbling) I suggest to stay Long Brazil but Short Japan/EWV and China/FXP.
Good Luck!

First Solar: Terrific Earnings, But Enormous Multiple

If my memory is good, CSFB has recently written off the books more than $10 Bn. in losses for allegedly sub prime involvement. These guys where unable to forecast the mess hitting their own face, like MOST of Wall Street firms. Please, tell me why you keep talking about the forecasts of these uncompetent liars and manipulators. Remember the Henry Blodget's of the Internet bubble? Here they come again, unfortunately Mr. Spitzer didn't want to find a regulatory model (as opposed to business model) to lock them into an harmless position, just to keep intact his political agenda, so be careful!
Have fun watching this:
docs.google.com/TeamPr...

Getting Out of Leveraged Gold

After reading few of Mr. McLarty's articles it seems to me that he's a bit 'out of touch' with reality. That's ok, he's probably a bit confused and just trying to get some answers to his doubts.
I totally agree with JT and will not add to it, but I would urge all the readers here to investigate more.
There are not so many periods in recent history we can compare to and this one, going forward, could become really ugly.
Do your research properly, perform your investigations seriously, maybe have also a closer look at recent cases like Northern Rock in UK and see how unethically and fraudulently the Governement is handling the situation. This might give a hint of what could happen in the U.S. -- and try to read it on british newspapers, since the americans are a bit manipulated, right now.
Then, I suggest you go here: www.jsmineset.com/
and you read this article, originally published on a british newspaper, the FT:
America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns
By Martin Wolf
Published: February 19 2008 18:21 | Last updated: February 19 2008 18:21
Good Luck Guys.

The Great Monoline Debate Goes to Washington

How can we expect the same regulators that failed to responsibly regulate, will be able to fix the mess they allowed to happen in the first place? A LOT of people should go to jail forever, because THIS IS terrorism too. Rating Agencies CEO's: ALL to jail immediately. Regulators: All to jail immediately. It is so indicative that this is a huge Ponzi scheme [www.tavakolistructured...] to observe that there is NO whistleblower yet. We need more people with Balls and with Ethics; since we cannot get rid of the greedy cowards, we need some serious and responsible Family Man to regulate them! Happily, this time Wall Street will hopefully get hurt too.

Chinese, European Bankers Won’t Dance With The Fed

Very Good writing, Gary!
Looking at the big picture that you are just describing and adding to it the kolossal systemic risk ailing in the banking system, There is still an uncomprehensible aspect, to me. I wonder why Gold is still so undervalued and, so far, could not keep up not even with inflation. How can Central Banks keep gold artificially low and for how long ? Maybe just until September 2009 at the expiration of the gold-selling agreement they have between each other ? Who's willing to buy the US Gov. debt now, since the Chinese are unloading ?