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OILGROWTH

OILGROWTH
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  • Gran Tierra Energy: On Sale For Half Price [View article]
    There are so many political reasons for the push for lower cost oil right now that investors really need to be careful. Who gets hurt by lower oil, who benefits? What political agendas are augmented? Are there unseen hands at work here? While I am not given to conspiracies in general there are way too many agendas going on to not give this some consideration in your investment strategy.

    lower oil hurts Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria producers with a break even point of greater than $70.

    lower oil benefits non oil dependent economies, diversified economies, US political interests (augments effect of sanctions in Iran and Russia) stops exploration in the Arctic, stops deep water drilling....
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ENI S.p.A. Offers A 19% Upside With A Nice Margin Of Safety [View article]
    I hold "E" for similar reasons stated in your article. While domestic business management quality in Italy has a lot to be desired, it's global foot print has become truly staggering. Hopefully the poor quality of management at home does not affect it's overseas operations and upstream production. However, once again there is no information about "E's" breakeven point for production per barrel of oil and I suspect given the diverse portfolio this is an unknown at this point. The spread of oil per barrel in 2015 is projected to be from $34. (catastrophic for most upstream suppliers) to $70. This is a long way from over $100. Most of the deals in the last 2-3 years were based upon or encouraged by the higher pricing. Folks need to know, or have some idea, what the breakeven cost is before investing in any oil "deals" right now. Some estimates of Saudi production breakeven without hidden costs are as low as $4./ barrel. That is a hard nut to crack if Saudi's want to keep prices low to put the hurt on Iran and Russia.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gran Tierra Energy: On Sale For Half Price [View article]
    I hole some GTE and in a normal oil environment I consider it a buy. Given the amount of work that went into the article it would be good to get a sense of the price per barrel where GTE breaks even. Currently the projected spread on price on oil in 2015 runs from $75./ barrel to $34. Given that the Saudi's hold the good cards right now and they have political reasons to watch oil prices fall, this is a key piece of information that should be examined for any "deal" in the upstream market.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: A Dividend Hike May Occur In 2016 [View article]
    What it interesting about iINTC is rarely the financial history but rather the products and ideas for the future.
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe And Sound: The Tale Of Plumb Creek Lumber [View article]
    PCL is one of the poorest preforming companies in my portfolio. For one of the largest portfolios of real estate in the US they don't seem to know how to make money from it. It should be chopped up and sold off to people who can realize the real value that is there. As it is, it is run as if it is basically a timber company. The board should keep the timber company and sell the rest to someone who knows what to do with it.
    Nov 10, 2014. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West says reserves not impacted by accounting under review [View news story]
    Does this mean that PWE is a known unknown? Still not a reason to buy back in until they clean up the accounting mess.
    Aug 26, 2014. 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Vs. Boeing [View article]
    What is so good about both of these companies is they have a pretty high bar for competitors to meet. As more consumers inhabit the planet, (growth of middle class), older ensconced manufacturers that produce efficiently will do much better than they have in the recent past providing services directly or indirectly for this growing generation of consumers. It is unlikely that new competitors (read India and China) will be able to establish themselves quick enough to reap benefits from this growing demand. The only real competition in these two markets will be Airbus and Siemens.
    Aug 25, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Has Been Dead Money For 20 Years: Did They Fire The Right People? [View article]
    Slightly off topic but germane to the declining share holder value-

    The litigation against banks has been brought, for reasons unknowable to me, because the government, (Obama admin), chose not to go after individuals. Rather than punishing individuals and making an example of people who knew better and should have been held to the highest standards as community and business leaders this action will just encourage another cycle, (seems to happen about every 8-10 years), of MBA's gaming the system for more money than the system can support-(read too many MBA degrees following easy money and not enough Engineering degrees making real value in the world). So rather than correcting the real problem, the government is forced devalue money to keep running and in so doing every other western country devalues their money to save the status quo. If CEO's, CFO's were held accountable instead of the intuitions we might have had a chance stopping this over leveraged dice game mentality cold. Another solution might be to REALLY tax short term capital gains. As it stands now it is just a matter of time before areas of the world that create real value through real sweat and their non replaceable assets finds a way to eliminate the dollar as the reserve currency so they are not continually ripped off- read China and Russia as the most likely candidates. What does this have to do with BofA? The governments litigation cost is damaging shareholders instead of bringing criminal charges the real perpetrators of the problems. With a new republican administration the litigation, if BofA can stall that long, will go away and essentially nothing will have been achieved except damaged shareholders and we will be left with a marginally functional financial system, in worse shape than after any of the previous melt downs.
    Jul 6, 2014. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Has Been Dead Money For 20 Years: Did They Fire The Right People? [View article]
    If you bought BofA when it was around $5./ share, it can hardly be viewed as dead money. Second guessing management that has been successful in a very difficult turnaround after perhaps the second worse acquisition in history (AOL being the first) in a climate of Inquisition for Banks is a pretty easy and lame occupation.
    Jul 2, 2014. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Corporation: Default Probabilities And Relative Value Update [View article]
    I don't see warren dumping his options after this report.
    Jun 11, 2014. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofA, DOJ settlement at standstill [View news story]
    It was Freddie and Jennie that guaranteed much of the sub prime mortgage space after muscling Moodies to raise credit rating. I don't see BofA (CountryWide) being totally culpable. Some parts of government knowingly let this happen despite warnings as early as the 90's.
    Jun 11, 2014. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Rapid Dividend Growers In The Canadian Energy Space [View article]
    I think that the oil sands will go ahead but at a much slower pace than originally thought. Most of us thought that TRP's pipeline would have been permitted by now. The other pipeline alternatives look even less encouraging. If you look at the resistance to building pipelines to get the oil out of central Canada, it is seriously impeding the exploitation of these resources. Whether or not this is a good or bad thing, in view of the perception that fossil fuels contribute to global climate change and the fear of oil spills, the environmental movement is going to slow down the process of both moving the oil and taking it out. Something to think about. I suspect that countries with fewer democratic controls and a suppressed public commentary are going to do better when it comes to exploiting oil resources.
    Jan 27, 2014. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Sale: Intel Corporation [View article]
    While I am keeping my Intel- as I think they have one of the best positions to leverage a widely divergent use of human intelligence- I really admire your discipline in adhering to your investing principles. All to often I surrender to hunches combined with research and admire someone who can follow strictly their investing code.
    Jan 27, 2014. 03:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Rapid Dividend Growers In The Canadian Energy Space [View article]
    I don't know if you have had a chance to read Neil Young's comments about the oil sands mining but you might want to try to get a hold of it. Whether or not he is correct in his statements, as a Canadian homeboy, he has mobilized a lot of resistance.
    Jan 25, 2014. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Rapid Dividend Growers In The Canadian Energy Space [View article]
    The environmental aspects of bitumen mining from sand is pretty grim. The amount of water needed to retrieve the "oil" is staggering. Unless there is a technology break through in processing they will have environmentalists trying to block them every inch of the way. Steam liquefaction drilling from the denser deposits seems to have less environmental resistance- pgh and pwe as examples but there are many others.
    Jan 24, 2014. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
45 Comments
31 Likes