User 149022

The Long and the Short of Silver and Gold

Nate. The ratio of silver to gold over the last 100 years has ranged from lows of about 15:1 to highs of over 70:1. In general, the spread narrows in a precious metals bull market and widens in a down market.

I think some guys posted a 100 year chart at silverseek.com.

Gold and the Dollar: Value is in the Eye of the Beholder

A one-url refutation of this crap

www.babylontoday.com/n...

Morgan Stanley: A Petrodollar Tsunami Is Coming

Longer refutation: The article makes assumptions on the financial infrastructure of third world nations predicated on the assumption that these nations have no present asset structures to spend the moneys we are transferring to them (true), so they will simply slap it back in banks in the West (false).

A spike in funds based on a spike in oil prices results in a wave of money coming back to London, Zurich, NY, etc. However, long term flows of money to oil producing countries will inevitably lead to the desire in those countries to develop asset structures which can absorb and multiply those moneys.

Again, a one word illustration: Dubai.

Morgan Stanley: A Petrodollar Tsunami Is Coming

One word refutation: Dubai

Chipotle Mexican Grill: Spicing Up Fast Casual

"toxic subprime-related headline risk"?????

Silly me. I just thought they sold off b/c of bad earnings.

Friday's Turnaround: Raid on the Shorts

I am short the march 1333 S&P Calls. I left the positions intact, because I was unable to focus on the mkt immediately. having other concerns for an hour. I will probably continue to do so (although I may day trade hedge them), because this "rally" had all the markings of a bucket shop run.

All the smug gloaters who were able to scalp a few tics on this run should be commended for their short term prowess (I used to be a pit trader myself), but you are missing the point of what he is saying.

When the market is subject to irresponsible manipulation by a few brokers of information, market efficiency and reliability dies, taking trust with it, and all you have left are scalpers.

Have you ever been in a market where liquidity has dried up because no one wants in? I traded for a short time in the Kansas City Wheat Pit. It was like a neighborhood poker game in those days. Money went from one guy to another, but at the end of the year, most guys were flat. We had to look to bonds, currencies and SPZ to make our money (of course, this is no longer the case in this, or any other ag market).

Congrats to the longs who made money. I would have bot the underlyings myself for the afternoon had I been in front of the computer. But you need to hear what he is saying.

A Winning Trade is a Tough Trade

The biggest contrarian call of all is that the monetary expansion has led to the edge of a huge adjustment in our debt to the point that our economy will have severe and prolonged stress, if not a total break.

If you want a REAL contrarian position, that is it. The gold nuts have been howling about this for years, and have called 118 of the last zero economic emergencies. I have never bought the stuff in my life, and have accumulated about 60,000 dollars of it and want to buy another 60 (adjusted value to 800 dollar gold and 15 dollar silver).