Deweyp

GM Bankruptcy? Probability Using Options

Nearly all the dealerships being cut have very low profits and do not enjoy the prime real estate you mention. The prime locations are the ones being kept open, mostly just for that reason. Having called on dealerships in Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky for many years, I can tell you that less than half would be considered prime locations. In most cases the impact on a community will be barely noticed by that community.


On May 29 07:23 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's going down. The imminent demise of General Motors (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> will be a nail in the coffin for the commercial real estate market,
> which I believe will be the financial crisis of 2009. Some 2,000
> dealers are being axed, dumping hundreds of millions of square feet
> on to a market that least wants it. These were the guys who sponsored
> the local baseball team and Girl Scout cookie sales, and their absence
> will rip the hearts out of hundreds of American communities. Much
> of this is prime space, near dense populations, with great frontage,
> adjacent retail space, completed site work, mitigated environmental
> work, and already zoned for commercial use. Some might get turned
> into mini malls, but I’m afraid more will end up as indoor climbing
> walls and paintball battlefields. Commercial real estate sales are
> off 73% this year, while vacancies have catapulted to 16.7%. Banks
> have seized 464 properties so far in 2009, including $7 billion worth
> in March alone, and thousands more are on the brink.

Five Things That Could Resuscitate the Markets

Sorry to disagree with YOU. First of all, Gm and the other American Auto makers HAVE been reducing costs and the UAW has agreed to reduce wages and improve work rules. Second, You may not have noticed but Gm outsold every other auto maker in the latest numbers out. How does that translate to "cars no one wants to buy"? Get your facts straight, then remove your Anti American Auto bias before trying to jam your negativity down others throats.


On Mar 06 03:12 AM H2KOLOB wrote:

> Sorry to disagree, but:
>
> GM: A full bailout of GM will leave it the same uncompetitive, bloated
> company it is with union contracts and legacy costs it can't afford,
> and cars no one wants to buy. letting them go bankrupt and restructure
> would be much more positive to the sentiment in the investor community.
> finally, the argument that Bankruptcy is not an option because no
> one would buy their cars is nonsense. is there a car buyer in America
> today that doesn't already see them as bankrupt. an actual bankrupcy,
> with a government financed restructuring that allows GM to become
> competitive would give car buyers much more confidence that the company
> will still be around over the three year life of their car's warranty.
>
>
> BANKS: Until all of the shoes have dropped, commercial RE, Credit
> cards, continued falling housing prices, corporate loans... we will
> not have any clarity on who if anyone will survive.
>
> STIMULOUS PLAN: the inept excuses for stimulous plans we are seeing
> is clearly causing the market to go down, not up.
>
> GOOD NEWS: the fact that the few retail buyers left in Amerca are
> shopping at Amazon to avoid sales taxes does not give me confidence,
> while the majority of brick and mortar retailers are dropping all
> around us.
>
> MARKET BOTTOM: yes some analysts are now saying we have hit bottom.
> about the same number who have said this each month for the past
> 18 months.
>
> I'll go ahead and sty in cash for now.
>