Deweyp

GM Bankruptcy? Probability Using Options

Nearly all the dealerships being cut have very low profits and do not enjoy the prime real estate you mention. The prime locations are the ones being kept open, mostly just for that reason. Having called on dealerships in Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky for many years, I can tell you that less than half would be considered prime locations. In most cases the impact on a community will be barely noticed by that community.


On May 29 07:23 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> It's going down. The imminent demise of General Motors (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> will be a nail in the coffin for the commercial real estate market,
> which I believe will be the financial crisis of 2009. Some 2,000
> dealers are being axed, dumping hundreds of millions of square feet
> on to a market that least wants it. These were the guys who sponsored
> the local baseball team and Girl Scout cookie sales, and their absence
> will rip the hearts out of hundreds of American communities. Much
> of this is prime space, near dense populations, with great frontage,
> adjacent retail space, completed site work, mitigated environmental
> work, and already zoned for commercial use. Some might get turned
> into mini malls, but I’m afraid more will end up as indoor climbing
> walls and paintball battlefields. Commercial real estate sales are
> off 73% this year, while vacancies have catapulted to 16.7%. Banks
> have seized 464 properties so far in 2009, including $7 billion worth
> in March alone, and thousands more are on the brink.

Japan Government Says Economy Improving - Oh, Really?

Most folks I talk to think the Yen is about at par where it is now (99 - $1). Much of Toyota's past profit was produced by an unduly low Yen allowing them to use that profit to augment to the worlds #1 auto manufacturer. I agree with you that employment world wide will continue to decline. Looking at past economic downturns, employment levels remain depressed for up to 14 months after recovery.

Auto Sector: Flow Through Industry Assistance

The things you mention in a flow through system are well in place now and really do not need to be designed or redesigned. The $s needed by tier 1 are primarily for continued operations and would not be hoarded as suggested. Tiers 2-4 are only in trouble because of cash problems at tier 1.

The Current Stagnation of Natural Gas Vehicles in America

Well written and researched. I do see an additional problem and that is price. During the bubble years through early 2008, the price of NG jumped to over $9. This was done without an appreciable increase in demand. If we go to NGVs in any volume at all, the gas company's will undoubtably run the price to that level and higher. With proper controls on price increases NGVs would truly be an answer to US energy problems, at least until fuel cells are perfected. One other reason conversion kits are not available is the tax collecting system does not lend itself to NG well because it is readily available in most homes, just like electricity. States are already scrambling to devise a method of collecting their share when EVs become popular. We will need some well thought out laws to regulate NG and El prices and taxes before either will be viable..

Is a Car Produced in Alabama Really an Import?

In addition to the very accurate list Mister Jimmy put forth, there is the tooling built in outside shops. Last I heard the labor costs involved in assembling an auto were less than 10% of the total cost. Design and tooling constitute much more. States where foreign carmakers built assembly plants paid hundreds of millions of taxpayer money for each plant to be built there. In return the hourly wage and benefits were much lower than at union shops.
When foreign carmakers costs increase to the level of domestic carmakers, they will close it down and go somewhere else where they are given even more millions to build a new plant.

The Electric Car Market: Wise Energy Use Stocks

Two points:
1) Most people will not give up the personal freedom an auto provides, even if the operating cost is higher by a few points.
2) The world is in the beginnings of a transition from petro power to electric and eventually hydrogen or even something more exotic. This would explain why there are few sales of electric vehicles. Few are being built yet. At the turn of the last century many made just the same argument about autos vs horses, and look where we are now.
There will always be a need for mass transport and some may find that to their liking, but I really do not believe autos are on the way out. I wouldn't bet against the auto companies, troubled as they are.

Auto Stocks: Value Investments Gone Wrong?

By necessity the restrictive, destructive union rules are slowly being reduced, but not fast enough to prevent the wholesale damage to the big three. Elroy hit the nail on the head, but the protectionism involved extends to currency manipulation, which I believe is the biggest piece of the pie, but at the expense of the Japanese citizens, because they pay considerable more for the products imported to their nation than Americans do. They can do this and give their auto and other industries a huge leg up, mainly because the citizens of Japan have such a high savings rate. The big three have historically provided a higher standard of living than most other industries, and they should be applauded for that, except that, with world competition as strong as it is now, it has no where to go. The American auto industry is far more important than the jobs that are provided to our labor force, although that is important. As history can verify, the auto industry has been a key player in our national defense and will continue to be, if it remains strong. Allowing that industry to go away, as some would suggest, is not the smartest thing to do. We should support it (although with much oversight) and insure it continues to be a strong segment of our manufacturing base.

Chrysler: Trying to Stake Its Claim in Electric Cars

I here that a battery company, A123, is applying to incorporate this week and that they will likely be the supplier for the GM Volt. This is good news because they are an American company, providing American jobs and with sufficient volume could easily keep the price of the battery pack below that of the offshore companies. I live for the day when paulk8756 has something constructive, accurate and positive to say about the American auto industry.

GM Volt Generates Interest - Will Congressional Funding Follow?

Change an only be made by taking risks. I give GM a lot of credit for this,

GM Volt Generates Interest - Will Congressional Funding Follow?

So far Brandon seems to be the only one with constructive comments and no axe to grind here. 18 months ago the only question asked by prospective auto customers was "how much horsepower does it have?" Now with gas prices at $4 the big 3 are pulling out all the stops to produce more fuel efficient cars, and it looks like GM has done it with the Volt. Waiting is a little like planting a garden when the grocery stores close and then try not to starve to death waiting for harvest. It is easy to blame auto companies for not seeing this coming, but 3 years ago no one I know did. Now that we are in this situation, let's water the garden instead of cursing the ground for being dry.

Some Consequences if Oil Prices Stay High

#1 Solar.
#2 Wind.
#3 Hydro (dams, tide movements, river currents, water falls)
#4 Earth Mining (shale oil, yellow cake, oil drilling off shore)
Sound familiar? Been around for centuries. Problem is we have bought into the theory that anything we humans do is destructive to the environment and therefore should be eliminated. Some would go so far as to include all of us, as we, they conclude, contribute to the problem.
It seems to me that it is time to show these bozos, who have used our system of freedom to advance their repressive ideals, that they are truly
out of step and in the minority and we will not allow it to happen. Ours is the very best system in the world and we should do all possible to protect it. We should not allow offshore companies to delude the American public into believing that they are superior, and therefore should replace our own highly efficient and high quality products, that in most cases the American company was the inventor of. Let us begin to explore and use, the wonderfully developed products that American industry has provided, and show the world that ours is the template of freedom that most desire, rather than the quirky society that the press seems to love to show the world. We are so much better than that!!