fjd10595

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I see the same thing in the malls in Westchester County, NY. It is very quiet, a lot of sales on clothing, etc. As the dollar has dropped, stocks have risen- I guess because it helps our companies sell overseas. But in my opinion, with or without a weak dollar, the fundamentals don't support sustained earnings growth. I would say that when the dollar makes a rebound, stocks will correct.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

We understand that markets move in anticipation of earnings. But let me ask, do you expect that the higher earnings shown recently will be sustainable? On what basis? Continued cost and job cuts for the next few years? Increased consumer demand? But consumer credit has collapsed, as have home prices. People are being put out of work. The stock market is wrong at these levels, like it was wrong prior to last year's fall. I would look to the smarter bond investor for a truer reading of the economy.


On Sep 17 11:56 AM TLassen wrote:

> Dr. O
> with respect, let me point out that the markets move in anticipation
> of the revenue or earnings growth. Market is forward looking. Waiting
> for confirmation always leaves the investor behind. Now....granted,
> should those earnings not materialize as expected...then we all panic.
>
>
> "One of the greatest declines in history followed by one the greatest
> rallies in history. World wide" and this is worrisome because?..........
>
>
> On Sep 17 07:08 AM Dr. O wrote:

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

IT is the wrong time to deploy money, the fundamentals are not there and if that is not enough, we zoomed 50% in a few months. This, after the greatest financial stress since the depression? If you think it has reversed in one year, you are wrong.


On Sep 17 03:26 AM SeeTheLight wrote:

> Against my true feelings, I put some weight back into equities not
> because I believe in this market but I fear it. I read a comment
> somewhere we are in a barbell market, where on one side we have many
> people playing the deflation trade and on the other many are playing
> the hyperinflation (but really stagflation) trade.
> It certainly does feel like we are walking a high wire here with
> a barbell as our balancing pole and no net below.
>
> Anyways, the recommendation was you weigh your portfolio equally
> for each outcome so thus I have still a lot of cash (for deflation)
> but have put the rest into assets that will win in a stagflation
> environment - precious metals, commodities, equities tied to those
> markets as well as beaten down equities.
>
> Yesterday I timed it well making my moves at 10 o'clock dip, dropping
> my UUP hedge (betting against this market is foolhardy so I removed
> my hedge) and buying back some older positions that remarkably had
> dropped in the past 3 weeks. Obviously trailing stops are critical.
>
>
> As I mentioned above I fear this market more than I believe it in,
> but I fear a parabolic ramp here. I suspect this market will go parabolic
> before it crashes and I feel I have to position myself to take advantage
> of that possibility using a portion of my portfolio.
>
> Dave you nailed it, we are in Hotel California, where do I sign up
> for an ARM to buy a McMansion before they take away my leg? All hail
> Bernanke and his broken dreams of stagflation for everyone.
>
> Good Luck all.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I'm starting to believe this rally and now i'm starting to think all this cheap money could spark the mother of all booms in just about every asset class until it is reigned in.

I don't think that is correct. Much of the 'extra money' placed in the system is idle, banks not lending, stronger consumer credit standards, end users not even wanting the credit after feeling all of the pain. Just when everyone thinks that this rally is real is when it will reverse.

On Sep 11 07:38 AM ozcutty wrote:

> Chuckys not buying and Buckys falling, i like it David!
> I'm starting to believe this rally and now i'm starting to think
> all this cheap money could spark the mother of all booms in just
> about every asset class until it is reigned in. See todays Bloomberg
> about all the Chinese gearing up to invest in shares and posible
> sovereign wealth fund investment in US realestate. If you take away
> all the inventory, things could move from bust to boom incredibly
> quickly. Just look what clunkers did to cars.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Is this what you meant to say:
"The bottom line—“ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die.”

Or this:
—“ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and BUY.”
Frank

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Why would anyone want to be "long overall" here. "Overall" being the operative word. I understand staying with a trend until it is clearly broken, but here? Yikes! I've been shorting these broad averages for about ten days now, China, SP 500. They are being held up by air. There will at least be a tradable break somewhere here, and then over the intermediate or longer term I would say we will get a considerable drop. The market is grossly overvalued. Here is what I see: everyone around me is being put out of work or having their pay cut, very few people in the stores, homes not selling, and no one can get credit. Where does that leave the markets?

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The market is up on 'thin air', that is all I can say. I am short the broad market here, and a bit below here, and holding. I see no reason for the market to advance from here.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It is not lunacy, try reading the science. You know, the same science that designed the medicine you take, that designed the jet engine powering the plane you saw fly overhead sometime in your life. Winters are warmer now. When CO2 is higher the planet is warmer. That is what the science says.


On Jul 09 07:19 AM Dr. O wrote:

> Off topic: global warming. Michigan just celebrated the anniversary
> of its most intense heat wave ever! 9 consecutive 100 degree days.
> Oddly, this occurred in 1936. Last winter was one of the coldest
> and snowiest on record. This summer, we've yet to hit 90 degrees,
> and have been running 5-10 degrees below normal per day. Cap and
> trade? OMG what lunacy during a depression! What do rational people
> think of global warming? The Chinese gave it the one-finger salute
> at the G8.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

"Public speaking has never been Bush strong point". Really. A bit of an understatement, wouldn't you say. He has no ability to explain any point, and it is obvious that the man is a dope and never should have been elected president.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

"Grasso'd" - defined as "going after a CEO who has engaged in legal theft from shareholders". At least they sleep at night as they take (steal) their undeserved million dollar paychecks and mismanage their companies.

Wednesday Outlook: How Far Can Bulls Take It?

Good job.

Thursday Outlook: Metals, Commodities, International

I say overpriced China drops from her, in lockstep with the US market. Our economy is slowing, and so is theirs. I bought the inverse ETF at a 20% discount a couple of days ago when China rallied. We will see.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I think all of that makes sense.
Frank

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities Due to Slow Down?

I'm basically repeating something that I said yesterday in response to Paul Davis's article, where he stated that only 4% of CEO's see a recession in 08. To that, I said it doesn't jive with what I have been seeing in the retail stores for months, Sears, Penny, H Depot, the stores are empty- I mean empty. Which makes sense in light of everything else we know, job losses, homes that are going underwater, etc. So how do we equate the two views? Are the CEO's giving an overly positive outlook when asked? Is it a contrary indicator, that is, if the CEO's in mass believe it to be one way, it will be the other?

Thursday Outlook: The Inflation Con Game

The veto is already the law of the land and can be used by one person. To my knowledge it has been the case since the founding of this nation. I am saying that the president should use it to contain the will of the people as exercised through congress when their are obvious excesses. But this president doesn't contain excesses, he adds to them. The invasion of Iraq was reckless, poorly planned and based on fraudulent data- the president's people telling him what he wanted to hear. It is well understood that this is the most closed administration in history, they force out people that don't see it their way, Paul O’Neill, Christy Whitman, Powell, and promote people that are incompetent or worse, but see it their way, Rumsfeld, Rice, Rove. They are a disgrace to our children who will inherit the problems that they have caused or added to. Any person who believes that George Bush has administered this country properly has to be a fool.