fjd10595

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

We understand that markets move in anticipation of earnings. But let me ask, do you expect that the higher earnings shown recently will be sustainable? On what basis? Continued cost and job cuts for the next few years? Increased consumer demand? But consumer credit has collapsed, as have home prices. People are being put out of work. The stock market is wrong at these levels, like it was wrong prior to last year's fall. I would look to the smarter bond investor for a truer reading of the economy.


On Sep 17 11:56 AM TLassen wrote:

> Dr. O
> with respect, let me point out that the markets move in anticipation
> of the revenue or earnings growth. Market is forward looking. Waiting
> for confirmation always leaves the investor behind. Now....granted,
> should those earnings not materialize as expected...then we all panic.
>
>
> "One of the greatest declines in history followed by one the greatest
> rallies in history. World wide" and this is worrisome because?..........
>
>
> On Sep 17 07:08 AM Dr. O wrote:

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

IT is the wrong time to deploy money, the fundamentals are not there and if that is not enough, we zoomed 50% in a few months. This, after the greatest financial stress since the depression? If you think it has reversed in one year, you are wrong.


On Sep 17 03:26 AM SeeTheLight wrote:

> Against my true feelings, I put some weight back into equities not
> because I believe in this market but I fear it. I read a comment
> somewhere we are in a barbell market, where on one side we have many
> people playing the deflation trade and on the other many are playing
> the hyperinflation (but really stagflation) trade.
> It certainly does feel like we are walking a high wire here with
> a barbell as our balancing pole and no net below.
>
> Anyways, the recommendation was you weigh your portfolio equally
> for each outcome so thus I have still a lot of cash (for deflation)
> but have put the rest into assets that will win in a stagflation
> environment - precious metals, commodities, equities tied to those
> markets as well as beaten down equities.
>
> Yesterday I timed it well making my moves at 10 o'clock dip, dropping
> my UUP hedge (betting against this market is foolhardy so I removed
> my hedge) and buying back some older positions that remarkably had
> dropped in the past 3 weeks. Obviously trailing stops are critical.
>
>
> As I mentioned above I fear this market more than I believe it in,
> but I fear a parabolic ramp here. I suspect this market will go parabolic
> before it crashes and I feel I have to position myself to take advantage
> of that possibility using a portion of my portfolio.
>
> Dave you nailed it, we are in Hotel California, where do I sign up
> for an ARM to buy a McMansion before they take away my leg? All hail
> Bernanke and his broken dreams of stagflation for everyone.
>
> Good Luck all.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The market is up on 'thin air', that is all I can say. I am short the broad market here, and a bit below here, and holding. I see no reason for the market to advance from here.