cma

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Fry's GS bashing is getting old, especially considering that GS has paid back the US everything that GS owed, while GM has "borrowed" mega billions which the taxpayer will never see back. And not just GM, but Citibank and many other financial institutions with US preferred stock investments which are not being marked to market.
How come we never here about these "loans" that have defrauded the US taxpayer but only hear about GS?

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David refers to his use of TBT. But numerous commentators have said taht all the inverse and/or leveraged ETFs use swaps so that there is serious erosion against the benchmark over even a short time, i.e., like holding long out-of-the-money options (calls or puts).
I would appreciate David's comment on this with regard to TBT of periods in excess of a month.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David, you sometimes post the Demark chart, which is great, since no one else does, but we need the interpretation, please!

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Who is the constantly mentioned "Chucky"?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David bought XLU and DIA today with the markets up 2.46% from the lows. Trend-following has somehting to say for it as a strategy, but when you miss 25% of a move, that undercuts the entire philosophy: 5-10% late, yes, but not 25%, since you may miss almost the entire move that way.

A Trend-Follower Positions for 2009

David refers 3 times to inverse and 2ble ETFs. But many posts and articles on Seeking Alpha have shown that these ETFs employ derivatives (mostly long options and swaps) to achieve their stated investment objective over only a 1-day time frame. Over longer periods, such as a one month, let alone several months, these inverse and 2ble ETFs vastly underperform their theoretical returns vs. their tracked index.
Here is a sample article showing the enormus underperformance of the inverse ETFs:

"2008 August through December 19th, the S&P 500 has fallen 30.8%. Many traders would assume that SDS should have returned 61.6% because that is double the inverse of the index, right? Oddly enough, SDS only gained 37.3%, nearly 25% below what many would have thought in less than four months. The ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH) during the same timeframe gained 25.9%; according to the company SH should give investors the inverse performance on a 1-to-1 daily basis."

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Notice that Fry tends to do his update after big down days, not after big up days, to reinforce his broken-record bearish view. His cash book is warping his analytical view.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Fry is nowa broken record on the equity markets, letting his cash position turn him inflexibly bearish. He missed the bottom and mistakenly downplays Marty Zweig's research which showed that if you have two 9:1 up volume/down volume days within a 30 day period, you have very high odds of a major stock market bottom.
We have now had 3 such days: 10/28, 11/13 and 11/24.
Fry is getting sloppy and losing his objectivity.