Tony P.

38 Comments

    • eBay: Triple Whammy Weighs on Stock Price [view article]
      Through it all, we have been labeled Clutter, Rabble and, finally showing their utmost level of concern for their customers, Noise. In actuality, we are The One.

      I doubt very much that any business course at Harvard has ever made mention of a little tidbit that I'd like to share with ebay and any financial analyst reading this.


      "Dance with The One, what brung you."


      The love affair with commodity retail is a relationship with a fickle gal. She'll hitch her wagon to whichever groom can give her the most 'bang fer the bucks'. That would be Amazon. They actually buy and sell some of their own Bangs; something you'll never understand, ebay.

      The collectible sellers really loved ya, ebay, but ya broke their hearts. Now we are dancing with other partners, and even with ourselves. We may come for a visit, every-so-often, but ... well, you know how this story goes.

      The band just announced this is the last dance. We glance your way, see you twirling around with your new partners (but you look a bit confused) and offer you a weak smile across the dancefloor. We wish you the best, really.

      Last comment, forever.       Sep 08 04:35 PM
    • eCommerce Stock Pair Trade: Amazon vs. eBay [view article]
      "A sluggish core auction business is the main reason why this is forth year with negative return on Ebay's share price."

      "... the company's market for auction is slowly flattening."


      Yes, the auction format has seen a decrease in activity these past four years. It is just a coincidence that ebay, in mid-2004, changed the platform to better-accomodate the searching for Commodity items.

      At that time, they also drastically changed the category system, after having been laborously developed over the previous years with user input. The site's Basic Search Algorithm was 'developed' into a Finding Results conglomeration that returned unrelated results.

      The layout of the site (aka GUI - graphic user interface) underwent complete surgical transformation. One day it looked one way, the next day it didn't resemble the site that its many users had grown accustomed to seeing, for years.

      One heck of a coincidence, heh? All those radical changes done at the same time as the auction market downtrend... no connection? Hey, you can 'watch' and 'blog' about it all you want, but if you can't see that, your opinion is meangingless.       Sep 08 04:28 PM
    • eBay Caps Shipping Rates: What Is the CEO Thinking? [view article]
      It used to be that for something to be perceived a certain way, a particular doctrine was followed: "say it loud enough, long enough and it will be believed".

      Now, they only bother with saying 'it' once, and quite nonchalantly at that; once uttered, IT is to be believed or you can kiss their arse. Your choice. Really, who the heck is going to make them toe that line?


      "ebay is just a venue" just an advertising venue... we don't get involved with the actual transaction...

      1. This is how you will list your goods for sale
      2. This is how many of your adverts we will display at any one time, no matter how many you have paid for
      3. This is how sellers will be graded on their business practices, which will also influence whether or not your listings are displayed
      4. This is how you will communicate to potential buyers; there will be NO email communication between parties
      5. This is the maximum amount you can charge for shipping costs
      6. This is how payments will be made between parties; United States of America legal tender is declared illegal on ebay


      "ebay is just a venue"

      BULLSHIT! The next time ebay uses that excuse in a court of law, they better say it quite long and loud.       Sep 05 11:09 AM
    • Wal-Mart vs. eBay: Which is a Safer Stock to Own? [view article]
      @eBay ++++

      You are absolutely, 100% Correct about ebay's "numbers". Those numbers show a substantial profit, each and every Quarter - as far back as IPO. Yes, Yes, YES... you are correct.

      It is also a fact that they have a huge on-hand cash asset. They would have even MORE cash, but they have used some of it to buy-back stock, which is a Plus towards shareholders, via the stock value.

      Fat Cat Cash balance... beats its own and Street estimates... has a monopolistic business model... doesn't carry any actual inventory, yet monetizes a virtual inventory that places no financial burden upon ebay.


      Where does all that money come from? Increased sales by its sellers and buyers? No, from increased fees. That is why there is concern for the lack of Growth within the site, for the last few years.

      In the next few months, as more sellers remove their goods from the site, the revenue from those fees will decrease. To offset that decrease, ebay has instituted several new policies.

      A new, higher 'backend' fee (Final Value Fee) for goods listed in the new 30-day Fixed Price format. Also, ebay changed the payment policy to essentially make all transactions payable via "Paypal Only".

      I have no doubt that these policy changes will more than offset whatever financial loss ebay will feel as a result of sellers pulling their items, or their entire businesses, off ebay.


      In the end, ebay will beat estimates, make a ton of cash and use it to, once again, offset the Options Bonuses paid to its higher-ups. Compare those Options to the Buyback, going back a few years. Start in the Skype, 2005 era.

      Ebay will look like the Value stock and have a large cash reserve, but will still pay no dividends. Their cash reserve could be $100-trillion and it wouldn't matter one iota to a single stockholder, if ebay keeps it all for themselves.

      If you hold the actual paper stock, turn it over and write on the backside, "$ 5,000,000,000" - that's as close as any stockholder will get to it.

      Meanwhile, for those that actually use the site, what they see is this: More Cash to ebay, from fewer revenue sources (sellers). It's a game of diminishing returns. It can last, but just for a while. In ebay's case, due to their size, that time is measured in years, not months or days.

      We have completed Year 2, as of this month, and are entering into Year 3.       Aug 30 01:04 PM
    • How Much of eBay's Sales are Fixed Price? [view article]
      If all the concerted effort to advantage Fixed Price, mixed with the effort to disadvantage auctions, wasn't in place, maybe some of those single-bid auctions might have actually gotten a few more bids.

      Not to mention the fact that the sellers would have made a better ROI and ebay would have seen "its" GMV increase. I guess we'll just never know.

      Speaking of GMV... if FP makes up '70% of transactions' AND the majority of those transactions are small-revenue media items AND ebay wants even more FP listings.. does ebay want less GMV?

      FP does replace/displace auctions, in case you haven't noticed. Otherwise, the GMV would have simply surged upward as more FP came to the site and auctions remained at their level of GMV contribution.

      Since FP is seen as the "growth provider", how's it been doing while being catered to and praised as the Obvious Method of Purchasing Choice for Buyers?

      Fixed Price percentage of GMV:

      6-30-04 ~ 27%

      6-30-05 ~ 29%

      6-30-06 ~ 35%

      6-30-07 ~ 39%

      6-30-08 ~ 43%


      Impressive! As more Buy-It-Now items made their way onto the ebay platform (as per ebay's own figures), they were actually purchased. What a totally novel concept! Provide the Supply and Demand comes into play.

      As the Supply became glutted, cut-throat pricing practices took place. The buying public somehow managed to figure out that rock-bottom prices, cheaper than in retail stores, should be purchased. Oh, that buying public, they're pretty sharp!

      If only we could get Target, Wal-Mart and K-mart to open stores, together, inside of one large complex - we could have the same kind of price war. But it wouldn't last, just like it hasn't lasted on ebay.

      The trouble is, ebay kept taking a bigger cut from those FP sellers, year after year. Sometimes, twice within a single year. Now, those FP prices (incl shipping), aren't as attractive as their traditional retail counterparts.

      So ebay is now attempting to put a 'Stick' to the FP seller's backside, in hopes that they will offer Free Shipping and give the impression of a lower 'total price'. Not a truly lower price, just the impression (give or take a little bit).

      It really won't help all that much (Wal-Mart’s still cheaper), because sellers will simply add the cost of shipping to the selling price. It seems that somebody forgot to tell the USPS, Fed Ex and UPS that they are supposed to provide their services for FREE.

      Anyhoo, a couple more years and FP should be able to sit at the Grownup table. Until then, shaddup and give praise where it's due. My math says that 53% is a majority.

      Auctions rule!       Aug 28 01:18 PM
    • eBay: The Next 4 Months [view article]
      It is very interesting that some folks keep saying that "auctions are dead" and that that segment of the ebay marketplace should be sold off, burnt at the stake or simply kicked out of the door.

      Most of the peeps saying such things are those that have a vested interest in seeing the Rise of retail and the Fall of auctions. Like Scot Wingo of Channeladvisor, previously known as Auction Rover, back when the butter was on that side of his bread.

      The remainder of those that proclaim 'auctions are dead' are analysts and such. That is extremely confusing, to me, because they are supposed to be "good with numbers" and the ebay auction numbers are still very much alive and kicking.

      First, auctions make up 57% of the marketplace revenue. Forget about Growth for the moment. Try your best to remember that old stock adage, 'past performance is not indicative of future results'.

      If you had a lemonade stand and 57% of your sales went to one person, would you tell that person to leave and never return? Well, you shouldn't, not if you want to retain your current level of revenue.

      Here's some more numbers to chew on. Another way of looking at the ebay revenue stream also consists of two metrics - insertion fees and final value fees (FVFs). Currently, they account for 60% and 40%, respectively.

      Today's ebay is dependant upon the insert fees, rather than the more success-based FVFs. Previously, the FVFs drove the revenue, from inception until about 2004 or so. It was around that time that ebay decided to 'improve' all sorts of functions to boost Fixed Price items, to the detriment of auction style listings.

      Because auctions suffered from those changes, along with the concerted effort to advantage fixed price items, we now have "auctions are dying". BUT WAIT! There's another key point to all of this.

      The FVFs make up *only* 40% of the current revenue, but of that percentage, the final value fees of Auctions constitutes 78%. That's right, the FVF of Auctions outweigh the FVF of Fixed Price. Naturally they do!

      Auctions end with a HIGH dollar amount, compared to just about all of the Fixed Price items. I recently saw a $20,000 toy robot auction end successfully on ebay. It would take a whole truckload of DVDs, Shoes and even iPods to equal that FVF.

      Of the 60% contribution of Insert Fees towards the ebay revenue, auctions account for 43-44% of that figure. When you look at these two sets of figures, 78% of 40% and 43% of 60%, you can see where auctions are Key to the ebay financials.

      Oh, and if it isn't obvious from these numbers... the movement of FVFs going from the 'top earner', down to the minority contributor... that is the reason for the GMV slide these past few years. When auctions were welcome (dare I say, even embraced), their hefty FVFs came from all those high-dollar, quality goods.

      See that connection? Bueller? Bueller? Anyone?       Aug 25 02:01 PM
    • EBay's New Fixed-Price Move: Amazon Envy? [view article]
      "I don’t have the time or inclination to monitor some auction. Give me a price and I’ll pay it or walk."


      I understand, believe me, I do. I've used ebay to auction my Old Crap to a specific group of people known as Collectors,and have done so since 1999. Over the years, prolly half have left ebay (for good, more or less) due to ebay pissing them off.

      For several years now Ebay has been on an Improving Quest, which isn't conducive to the Collector-Buyers' interest. What is ebay's quest? To provide the growth-crack that the Street has demanded from them.

      Sorry, but the dealer is OUT of product. It just ain't gonna happen, any more. Too bad ebay and the street didn't just stick with those Collectors and nurture that business. Heck, it still accounts for 57% of the business, yet ebay says it's in decline.

      Sure it's in decline, when you turn your back on something and ignore it, it does tend to drift away. When you call it Noise, it does have a tendency to become a bit absent.

      Too much negativity? You want some constructive help? How about ebay lowers the auction fees and sets it up so that high-dollar items don't bear a disproportionate fee amount.

      That would actually undo the last couple of "fee decreases" (which weren't!) and might even return some quality items to the site. Understand? Try not to beat the living chit out of the items that could possibly bring back the magic and the fun.

      It ain't everyone's cup o' tea, that is for certain, but it did take ebay to the dance where they were playing that song from long ago... $52 per share. It was a fairly sure thing then and it is still waiting over in the corner, wanting to dance.       Aug 20 05:47 PM
    • eBay Still Hazy [view article]
      Sramana,

      I've read many of your write-ups and know that you have a thorough understanding of ebay, in a 'corporate structure' manner. In your exhaustive analysis of ebay, from last year, you wrote this:

      "The overall look and feel of the site has been very “dirty”, and it is amazing that a company as old as eBay never addressed that. Recently they are testing more web 2.0-esque interface tools."

      I'd like to suggest something to you and simply want you to consider it. Suppose - just suppose - that the ebay users that tend toward the auction platform prefer an "old style" interface. Think of them as the people that prefer a Keep It Simple Sam philosophy of life.

      What effect would a fancy-shmancy GUI have upon that sort of person? You know, an interface full of neato pop-ups-and-clicks, multiple levels of "option" click-boxes and loads of 'intuitive' (read yer mind) functions.

      Do you think that might put-off such a person? Do you think that an environment like that might curtail that person's use of a web site that constantly implements the newest gizmo, simply because it's the latest fad?


      Sramana, in that same analysis you did, you noted that the auction format seemed to experience a slowdown in 2005. I propose that is a direct result of what ebay did in 2H04; not - repeat NOT - as a result of a 'maturing of the auction market'.

      In the summer of 2004, ebay made a change to the layout of several major categories. They rolled-up the individual categories and instituted the search function called Item Specifics (IS). This was the first time such a drastic change had taken place on the ebay site.

      They continued throughout the remainder of 2004 eliminating the individual categories, thereby forcing the use of IS as the only means of searching those categories. Ebay stated that "bidders don't like to browse".

      Which meant, users would need to know precisely what they wanted, and use those very precise terms to do an IS search. I'm sure you can see where I'm going with this. And, this has little to do with commodity-type, fixed price or ebay store items.

      It has everything to do with auctions and what many of us believe to be true about how the ebay auction market came to be depressed. First, its patrons were left confused and then they left, confused.

      The slow death spiral of auctions may have began through acts of ignorance and expediency, but now it is a deliberate effort as the Donahoe drive towards a more Amazon-like market is forced upon the site.

      Auctions aren't dead, nor have they matured into a blasé state, they simply are unwanted orphans at the moment. This is ebay management at its best (think Skype purchase mentality) and IT continues.       Jul 18 01:59 PM
    • At These Prices, eBay Is a Steal [view article]
      "Revenue and Net Income, even if they are slowing due to a maturing auction business and the macroeconomic environment... "

      I know that is what ebay has stated about auctions, but it isn't truthful. The auction business has experienced a slowdown due to all of the changes made by ebay/Donahoe. All emphasis in now on Fixed Price items, which places auctions at a disadvantage.

      As in, Disadvantaged all the way to the back of the bus. Literally. Donahoe publicly stated he dislikes the 'flea market image' of ebay and he has set about to change it.

      Ebay Motors has just went through a series of drastic changes, all implemented at Donahoe's direction, and that segment's revenue shows the result of those changes. Of course, it was blamed on the general economy. You bought that, right?

      One consequence of those changes is, it has caused sellers to be hesitant to offer high-dollar items at auction, which also adds to the 'auction woes'. The more Hesitation that exists, the more it causes a cyclic effect. Hesitation - uncertainty - fewer high-dollar quality-item listings. That equals less/flat GMV. Understand?

      But please don't take my word for it - I'm just an auction seller on the site - I mean, what the hell would I know about such things?! Ebay is trying to push out auctions, replace them with fixed price items (like Buy.com stuff) and (hope/pray) they will generate the same revenue as the previous auction items. It's not working and you're seeing the result.

      As far as the "macroeconomic environment" thing is concerned, that's like saying, "the act of finding a bargain and purchasing it has matured". There's a use of that 'matured' word that illustrates just how ridiculous it sounds.

      The eCommerce economy may not be in some sort of Booming Stage, but it certainly isn't showing a flat growth. Heck, ebay's GMV isn't even Flat - it is negative. Factor in the rate of inflation; simply the COG this year, compared to last year and anything not above 5% is negative.

      ----------------------...


      You're standing outside a huge steel building that houses the world's best flea market. You're discussing aspects of its business: how's traffic? what's the average purchase amount? are more sellers coming on board, all the time? less sellers? what's the quality of merchandise offered? should I invest my money in this enterprise?

      Do you walk around inside the building and ask the actual sellers these questions? No, you ask the guy that owns the enterprise. Now, what do you think he will tell you?

      No matter how much you believe that ebay sellers are so pissed-off that they will make mountains out of mole hills, do you really think that we all got together *somewhere/sometime* and came up with the same "outrageous" claims?

      Ebay is known as the Auction site, yet ebay wants to be something else. As they change, they struggle to show a very modest bit of growth. As they change, even more, and force out the quality sellers and their goods,       Jul 18 12:36 PM
    • eBay Q2: Thoughts on the Conference Call [view article]
      "Changes needed for collective good"

      No, they weren't.


      "DSRs, BM, etc. working"

      No, they aren't.


      "Consumers are migrating to lower-ASP items across all categories"

      Another theory would be, there are less higher-ASP items available, than ever before!
      Why?
      See the above two Q&A's?
      They equal less Quality-sellers and less Quality-items.


      "We will continue to coupon and do less marketing."

      They bribed 10%, but only got 6% to come take a look-see and take the bait. When there's less to see, 'cept for that Buy.com stuff, no one cares. Not even a bribe works.

      Less marketing = we hate Google. Expect less traffic with this myopic 'reasoning'.


      "Bob Swan went through a neat slide here."

      With the price down approx. $4, it looks like ebay as a whole, is taking a slide. Not so "neat", though.


      At this point, even Tim Boyd is saying the same things that ebay sellers have been saying. Of course, those sellers have been saying it for a couple years or so. Maybe they're clairvoyant, whatcha think?


      "Boyd added the company's 8 percent growth in gross merchandise volume show it is "hemorrhaging market share to competitors like Amazon ." He also noted that consumers' spending patterns are deteriorating and, meanwhile, eBay is trying to "alter the form, function and functionality of its core marketplace."       Jul 17 02:03 PM
    • eBay is Listening [view article]
      "The reality is they didn't make the change because sellers spoke out, they did it because the metrics demanded it. It was just a nice coincidence that they would get credit for listening."

      "They just looked at the number and realized that too many top sellers were going to lose PS status so they made the change."


      Randy Smythe made those comments on his blog. The only thing that's missing is the final point, which is the answer to this question:

      Why would ebay give a damn if huge amounts of Power Sellers lost their status and ended up paying More fees and possibly being suspended?

      Anyone know the answer? Anyone? (hint: it involves the word Bleed)

      ----------------------...


      It took a six week study to conclude that sellers shouldn't be disadvantaged by neutrals? It will take another six weeks to run a program to undo that mistake?

      Originally, it took only three weeks for the program to compute ALL feedback changes, calculating all the way back to 1995. This 'undo' repair to the feedback system needs to go back only 12 months.

      Two choices. Either they are incredibly inept, or something else is involved here. Neither choice allows for an altruistic "ebay listened" answer. Let's put this into real world terms:


      A deliberate act by someone ends up in cutting off a man's hand . Later, the assailant performs surgery and re-attaches the hand. The word "later" means after a study of the consequences of a man living without a hand.

      Also, in spite of the fact that surgeons are everywhere, the assailant takes several more weeks (after the study) to enlist a surgeon. This is supposed to be a altruistic act? Puhleeze!       Jul 11 03:23 PM
    • Is eBay Expanding Their Finding 2.0 in the U.S.? [view article]
      "BM - BM is a new way to change the ORDER of SERPs, not the content." ~Scot (and ebay)

      That statement isn't entirely factual. Listings from previous SERP's will show up on later SERP's, again and again and again. It's like ebay is forcing the repetitive display of certain items, no matter how many pages 'deep' you go into the SERPs.

      There's no official announcement from ebay whether this is intentional, or a glitch. In fact, ebay hasn't even acknowledged this behavior, at all, even though screen-shots have been posted on the boards by dozens of users.

      ----------------------...

      "If I put myself in Jeff King's shoes, I never want a buyer to have to go to page 2/3/4+ of the SERPs because that means I failed to deliver the right result on the top of page 1." ~Scot

      For the buyer searching for a typical consummable, this is what ebay desires. For a Collectibles buyer, a true search result may present several pages and the desired item may be on page 5.

      "Before F2/BM, you may have had a 1:2-3-4 kind of ratio which generates more pageviews, but fewer conversions since the buyer isn't finding what he is looking for." ~Scot

      Yes, the buyer of a mundane iPod should certainly find that 'treasure' easy enough, and buy it. However, the Collectible buyer may not find the particular Treasure he's looking for on ANY page.

      And manipulating the search and result pages will not deliver something that just isn't there. It will only result in pissing-off that collector, while s/he wonders if everything available has actually been shown.

      NO, it has not.       Jul 09 01:47 PM
    • Q2 Predictions for eBay Business Segments [view article]
      Apples vs. Oranges.

      The worldwide count of listings per Qtr may be 800M, but the majority of the non-USA listings pay little-to-no fees. That is why The Street is so concerned about USA Growth. Currently, the other two major growth sites, Germany and UK, are hitting the skids, as well.

      Ahem, back to USA listings. They run at approx. 12M per week and this includes only USA listings, not the UK and AU listings that ebay allows on the site thru a 'backdoor' plan. Such listings are counted twice - once on their primary site and again on the USA site - by analysts. They haven't ever caught on to that.

      The Buy.com seller lists 500K per week; that is a little more than 4% of total ebay.com listings. Many of these listings are bogus. A battery for $6, with $12 shipping, etc. Recently, they listed some graphic comic books thought to be more for a Mature category, but sold in the comic book category.

      Ebay allows this behavoir because ebay needs to sustain the listings. As it is, Buy pays no listing fees and has a conversion rate of less than 3%. Their only contribution is a bump in listing numbers.

      Some would ask, "What does it matter? Ebay's total listing count isn't important."

      The total listing count isn't important - ebay could have 50M listings, but if none sold, ebay would go bust. And if those listings were for FREE, like for Buy.com, ebay would make negative revenue. That means that the dividend you currently don't get would be for even less.

      But, any time someone (in the blogs) asks, "What does listing numbers matter?", they always seem to know the number of listings per Qtr/Yr. Funny, no? The traders know that metric is worthless, yet they still give it value. Can you say BSC?       Jul 07 03:53 PM
    • New Selling Form Sinks eBay Sellers [view article]
      The idea that registering a user's IP Address so as to present a particular "view" of ebay, is valid, but it is only part of the reason. Using the IP address as a means of verifying a user's identity, is also part of the reason.

      i.e. confirming a seller that is listing some items is indeed that seller and not someone that has hyjacked the user's ID and password.

      The part about IP addresses being used as a way of "tracking and identifying" a particular user is useful when the user isn't logged-in to the ebay system. If the user is logged-in, a Cookie will identify the user and their past history with ebay will indicate whether they are to be treated as a Seller or Buyer.

      This is NOT about some great conspiracy scheme whereby ebay will show Your (seller) items when You search for them, but keep them hidden when others search for them. NO, it is not that nefarious, but it does have a sinister aspect to it.

      The New Item Page hasn't been finialized yet. Many versions have been seen. One version showed Other Seller's Items on the actual listing page; needless to say, no seller liked that or wants it.

      With IP-logging, ebay can show one version of the page to that particular seller, and show a different version to everyone else. I'm not saying that is the INTENT of ebay in this... just saying that it is possible.

      They currently show many different versions of all pages, depending upon whether you are viewed as primarily a seller or a buyer. It is all fairly well automated, so it isn't like it takes a lot of resources to accomplish anything along these lines.

      ----------------------...

      I do agree with Wheels. I understand all of the reasons that folks can't just quit selling, even for a month or so, but there comes a time when you have to make a stand.

      In 2005, when PSU was born out of a boycott, ebay rescinded on a fee hike and acted a bit humble. Since that time, ebay has rode roughshod over its customers by not delivering the services purchased, and/or delivering inferior services.

      How much crap are you willing to accept before you say, ENOUGH!

      ????????????????????       Jun 27 12:37 PM
    • New Selling Form Sinks eBay Sellers [view article]
      For quite a while now Ebay has presented different "looks" to various users. They have not only admitted to this practice, they have given the criteria: users with a 'buyer' history receive more Sponsored Link Adverts than do 'seller' type users. etc.

      The evidence is within ebay's posts upon the chat boards. Anyone asking for "evidence" of such practices shows a lack of familiarity with basic ebay practices.

      A bigger picture of events is unfolding, brought about by the eBay Live! get-together this past week. The ebay Execs now have a better understanding of just how much damage they have managed to accomplish within the past few months.

      Their prior thoughts were guided by the misconception that they are the 800 pound gorilla that can dish-out any level of tripe and the sellers would simply take it. They have now been hit by the realization that that mindset is false.

      The "Noise" of unhappy sellers has been personified - up close. Angry voices were heard at every seminar that dealt with ebay policies, and a few of those voices were quite LOUD. The entire event was more like an Intervention for an addict, rather than the networking scene as in the past.

      The addict: ebay. The abused substance: power. Absolute monopolistic power. The intervention message: please hear us before we are driven to do something neither one of us really wants. The outcome: ???


      You traders don't care about any of this. As long as ebay has $B sitting and $B coming in, you're happy. But, if you knew just how bad the business climate is within ebay... if you knew what deceptions and manipulations of the "metric numbers" take place... if you knew that ebay is fast becoming nothing more than a badly-designed Amazon clone... you would care, very much.       Jun 26 11:14 AM
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