Tony P.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/149400/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173816-should-ebay-go-retail?source=feed#comment-765689 765689
That 'growth' you speak of has a dark side. The pricing changes that ebay has forced upon the sellers, for the last year or so, accounts for that 'growth'.

With the ebay dictates to offer Free Shipping, sellers have rolled the actual shipping cost into the selling price. The 4% 'growth' stems from this practice.

In fact, a basic off-the-cuff accounting of the actual cost of shipping the GMV products that offer Free Shipping, but are not free, should be in the range of 6% to 10%. By my calculations, albeit hypothetical numbers, has ebay LOSING revenue this past quarter.

Ebay has now mandated that shipping insurance can no longer be a separate charge and it too, must be rolled into the selling price. This next quarterly report will include that amount within the GMV.

The 'growth' is artificial, not organic. Just like the growth from the past few years was not from increased sales and organic growth, but rather from increased fees. Growth, like a tick.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:15:02 -0500
That 'growth' you speak of has a dark side. The pricing changes that ebay has forced upon the sellers, for the last year or so, accounts for that 'growth'.

With the ebay dictates to offer Free Shipping, sellers have rolled the actual shipping cost into the selling price. The 4% 'growth' stems from this practice.

In fact, a basic off-the-cuff accounting of the actual cost of shipping the GMV products that offer Free Shipping, but are not free, should be in the range of 6% to 10%. By my calculations, albeit hypothetical numbers, has ebay LOSING revenue this past quarter.

Ebay has now mandated that shipping insurance can no longer be a separate charge and it too, must be rolled into the selling price. This next quarterly report will include that amount within the GMV.

The 'growth' is artificial, not organic. Just like the growth from the past few years was not from increased sales and organic growth, but rather from increased fees. Growth, like a tick.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154326-cisco-perfect-home-for-ebay-s-skype?source=feed#comment-618609 618609
Their license to use Skype has been revoked, by the original designers. It seems that ebay didn't actually purchase the source code, just the rights to use it. Hey, $3.2B will get you only so much!

And another FYI: Current CEO John Donahoe joined ebay in Feb 2005 as President of eBay Marketplaces. He was very much instrumental in the decision to purchase Skype in Sept of that year.

It's best to not buy-in to press release blather, too much. Next you'll be believing that "ebay's roots" consisted of the Chinese mega-sellers (of crap) that currently infest the site.]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:25:12 -0400
Their license to use Skype has been revoked, by the original designers. It seems that ebay didn't actually purchase the source code, just the rights to use it. Hey, $3.2B will get you only so much!

And another FYI: Current CEO John Donahoe joined ebay in Feb 2005 as President of eBay Marketplaces. He was very much instrumental in the decision to purchase Skype in Sept of that year.

It's best to not buy-in to press release blather, too much. Next you'll be believing that "ebay's roots" consisted of the Chinese mega-sellers (of crap) that currently infest the site.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153585-amazon-vs-ebay-2-charts-say-it-all?source=feed#comment-618573 618573
No expenditure for advertising! And their "reward" programs for current buyers doesn't count as marketing. Bribing former buyers to stick around, with coupons that have more exclusions and restrictions than a "free timeshare vacation", is not advertising.

I've seen more ShamWow commercials in the last month than all of the ebay commercials, ever. What, is an expenditure of $100K just too much for the mega-corp with $3 BILLION dollars? Sheesh!

I've even seen a Buy.COM commercial on cable network TV. Now, it wasn't much, mind you, but their name did flash onto the screen for about 10 seconds - white letters on a black background, with no sound. At least it was something!

Ebay is doing what it has always done, more or less. Resting on its laurels and riding the wave. That wave has hit a serious stretch of calm sea and ebay's lack of previous business acumen is the storehouse of knowledge upon which they now draw.

While they could have been learning about the ecommerce business, they were instead off Empire Building. If what they need to do now doesn't require a failed exploit overseas, acquiring an entity they themselves cannot develop or offering more *FREE* spots to other mega-sellers, then they have no clue.

That's what investors should really be concerned with - ebay mgmt blindly grasping at the fix du jour.]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 16:03:42 -0400
No expenditure for advertising! And their "reward" programs for current buyers doesn't count as marketing. Bribing former buyers to stick around, with coupons that have more exclusions and restrictions than a "free timeshare vacation", is not advertising.

I've seen more ShamWow commercials in the last month than all of the ebay commercials, ever. What, is an expenditure of $100K just too much for the mega-corp with $3 BILLION dollars? Sheesh!

I've even seen a Buy.COM commercial on cable network TV. Now, it wasn't much, mind you, but their name did flash onto the screen for about 10 seconds - white letters on a black background, with no sound. At least it was something!

Ebay is doing what it has always done, more or less. Resting on its laurels and riding the wave. That wave has hit a serious stretch of calm sea and ebay's lack of previous business acumen is the storehouse of knowledge upon which they now draw.

While they could have been learning about the ecommerce business, they were instead off Empire Building. If what they need to do now doesn't require a failed exploit overseas, acquiring an entity they themselves cannot develop or offering more *FREE* spots to other mega-sellers, then they have no clue.

That's what investors should really be concerned with - ebay mgmt blindly grasping at the fix du jour.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153256-ebay-s-skype-fiasco-what-were-they-thinking?source=feed#comment-615118 615118
The *synergy* of Skype and eBay was easy enough to figure out BEFORE it was purchased, back in Sept of 2005. It's actually a simple test that (almost) anyone can do.

Do you like telemarketers calling you? If you had a yard-sale, would you enjoy phone calls about all of your $1 and $2 items?

If you answered NO and NO, then you understand why Skype was/is a flop for ebay.

If you aren't sure of your answers or if you let your maid do those "menial tasks", or if you answered YES and YES, then you are eBay CEO material.

It really is that simple. They (Meg W and John D) really are that clueless.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:25:30 -0400
The *synergy* of Skype and eBay was easy enough to figure out BEFORE it was purchased, back in Sept of 2005. It's actually a simple test that (almost) anyone can do.

Do you like telemarketers calling you? If you had a yard-sale, would you enjoy phone calls about all of your $1 and $2 items?

If you answered NO and NO, then you understand why Skype was/is a flop for ebay.

If you aren't sure of your answers or if you let your maid do those "menial tasks", or if you answered YES and YES, then you are eBay CEO material.

It really is that simple. They (Meg W and John D) really are that clueless.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153585-amazon-vs-ebay-2-charts-say-it-all?source=feed#comment-615071 615071
Amzn Profit Margin (ttm): 3.23% -- as a result of actual growth

eBay Profit Margin (ttm): 18.66% -- as a result of increased fees to its customers, amid negative growth

One has potential for sustainability; the other comes from a finite source. An ever-decreasing, bled-out source.
]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:54:21 -0400
Amzn Profit Margin (ttm): 3.23% -- as a result of actual growth

eBay Profit Margin (ttm): 18.66% -- as a result of increased fees to its customers, amid negative growth

One has potential for sustainability; the other comes from a finite source. An ever-decreasing, bled-out source.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145384-ebay-search-there-s-a-new-sheriff-in-town?source=feed#comment-563747 563747
Gupta was/is one smart cookie - with enough common sense to restore one's faith in an MBA - but none of the higher-ups listened to a thing he told them.

But, then again, who knows?! Maybe Hugh can work the code in such a way that everyone can be happy. No? Well, I'd bet he could whupdashitoutta JD and that'd certainly make me happy. :-)]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 12:34:33 -0400
Gupta was/is one smart cookie - with enough common sense to restore one's faith in an MBA - but none of the higher-ups listened to a thing he told them.

But, then again, who knows?! Maybe Hugh can work the code in such a way that everyone can be happy. No? Well, I'd bet he could whupdashitoutta JD and that'd certainly make me happy. :-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145144-amazon-and-ebay-in-satisfaction-survey?source=feed#comment-563667 563667
You've used the site since its heydays, you know that ebay has done this thing to Auctions, themselves.

For example, an upcoming "seller perk" is the inability of a non-payer to leave feedback. But, it's only going to be implemented for Fixed Price. ONLY FP.

Exactly what logical reason could be behind excluding auctions from that small degree of protection for sellers? There isn't one. And this is just one example of many more to come.

It's called Steering. Ebay is good at it, too. It's the MO behind the "paypal is the safest payment method" baloney. (aka vertical antitrust violation)

The categories enjoying the highest STR - coins, antiques, electronics - some hitting over 70% - do IT with auctions. That clearly shows the viability of the auction format - almost every dammed thing thrown out there is scooped up!

Meanwhile, all of the BIN/FP listings "enjoy" a miserable STR - most hover around 15-20% , with a high in the 30% range for just a couple of categories.

The only reason that FP constitutes appr. 60% of revenue is due to the volume of FP. It takes 25 FP listings to equal the revenue generated by a single auction listing, on average.

Just imagine how much better things would be if Auction sellers were to get a perk or two, every once in a while. While ebay does everything within its power to undermine the auction format, they run around with this perplexed look on their faces, claiming that auctions are dying.

No, they're not dying, not with a 70% STR rate they're not. JD is killing them and hiding the knife behind his back.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:49:09 -0400
You've used the site since its heydays, you know that ebay has done this thing to Auctions, themselves.

For example, an upcoming "seller perk" is the inability of a non-payer to leave feedback. But, it's only going to be implemented for Fixed Price. ONLY FP.

Exactly what logical reason could be behind excluding auctions from that small degree of protection for sellers? There isn't one. And this is just one example of many more to come.

It's called Steering. Ebay is good at it, too. It's the MO behind the "paypal is the safest payment method" baloney. (aka vertical antitrust violation)

The categories enjoying the highest STR - coins, antiques, electronics - some hitting over 70% - do IT with auctions. That clearly shows the viability of the auction format - almost every dammed thing thrown out there is scooped up!

Meanwhile, all of the BIN/FP listings "enjoy" a miserable STR - most hover around 15-20% , with a high in the 30% range for just a couple of categories.

The only reason that FP constitutes appr. 60% of revenue is due to the volume of FP. It takes 25 FP listings to equal the revenue generated by a single auction listing, on average.

Just imagine how much better things would be if Auction sellers were to get a perk or two, every once in a while. While ebay does everything within its power to undermine the auction format, they run around with this perplexed look on their faces, claiming that auctions are dying.

No, they're not dying, not with a 70% STR rate they're not. JD is killing them and hiding the knife behind his back.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140198-ebay-in-no-hurry-to-spin-off-skype?source=feed#comment-523587 523587

The more it is worth, the more value it has. WOW. That's a real gem.

Exactly how does one garner "value" from a non-dividend paying stock? Oh, that's right.. find a phool and his money.]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 19:07:53 -0400

The more it is worth, the more value it has. WOW. That's a real gem.

Exactly how does one garner "value" from a non-dividend paying stock? Oh, that's right.. find a phool and his money.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139360-ebay-where-did-all-the-fun-go?source=feed#comment-523551 523551
My opinion above does contradict Ms Pat's - she says that ebay did it for the sake of it's users. I say that ebay has never done one dammed thing solely FOR its users.

Early on in the SMI (Safeguarding Member ID) phase, several suggestions were offered as alternatives. One was to simply abolish SCO and make an announcement of that fact.

(For the record, there were some sellers that didn't like the idea of abolishing SCO, but even they agreed that it would be a small sacrifice to pay, to keep bidder IDs from being hidden.)

OK, back on point. Guess what the T&S VP said about that suggestion? That it wouldn't work because users wouldn't know that SCO was abolished. say... WTF?

Present every user that logs-in with a splash page informing them of it. Send out an email to every registered user. Have a banner proclaim it on every ebay page. What would be so difficult about that?

"users don't read - they pay no attention to banners - they don't get half the emails sent" Lots of excuses. (note the contradiction about banners not being effective!)

Funny thing.. ebay used all of those methods to announce their new TOS Policy, didn't they?!

Back on point, again. Some think that ebay wanted to keep SCO because of the revenue it generated, but I have to ask if that amount made up for the loss of bids that followed SMI.

Either ebay had no clear idea what effect the SMI would have upon bidding - OR - they wanted bidding (and thereby auctions) to falter - OR - they're simply morons.


You may choose any three options. ;-)
(Philip, can I put you down for all three? LOL)]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 18:59:42 -0400
My opinion above does contradict Ms Pat's - she says that ebay did it for the sake of it's users. I say that ebay has never done one dammed thing solely FOR its users.

Early on in the SMI (Safeguarding Member ID) phase, several suggestions were offered as alternatives. One was to simply abolish SCO and make an announcement of that fact.

(For the record, there were some sellers that didn't like the idea of abolishing SCO, but even they agreed that it would be a small sacrifice to pay, to keep bidder IDs from being hidden.)

OK, back on point. Guess what the T&S VP said about that suggestion? That it wouldn't work because users wouldn't know that SCO was abolished. say... WTF?

Present every user that logs-in with a splash page informing them of it. Send out an email to every registered user. Have a banner proclaim it on every ebay page. What would be so difficult about that?

"users don't read - they pay no attention to banners - they don't get half the emails sent" Lots of excuses. (note the contradiction about banners not being effective!)

Funny thing.. ebay used all of those methods to announce their new TOS Policy, didn't they?!

Back on point, again. Some think that ebay wanted to keep SCO because of the revenue it generated, but I have to ask if that amount made up for the loss of bids that followed SMI.

Either ebay had no clear idea what effect the SMI would have upon bidding - OR - they wanted bidding (and thereby auctions) to falter - OR - they're simply morons.


You may choose any three options. ;-)
(Philip, can I put you down for all three? LOL)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139593-why-isn-t-paypal-more-successful?source=feed#comment-523488 523488
The fact remains, some folks have been screwed. When screwed, it was for more-than a pittance. When they contacted paypal, they got the bum's rush. End o' story.

It really doesn't matter if it was "only" a mere .001 percent, that equates into thousands of people. And they tell eleven people, and they tell eleven people, etc.

And as far as combating these scenarios... **YES** - these things don't happen overnight. But neither did the problems.

Paypal has had ample time to much farther along the FIXIT path than they are, currently. They chose not to address these issues, many years ago.

It was the Expedient and More-Profitable thing for them to do. Now, they've supposedly changed their stripes. Good for them! Time will tell if it's too late.

For many, it is.]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 18:20:47 -0400
The fact remains, some folks have been screwed. When screwed, it was for more-than a pittance. When they contacted paypal, they got the bum's rush. End o' story.

It really doesn't matter if it was "only" a mere .001 percent, that equates into thousands of people. And they tell eleven people, and they tell eleven people, etc.

And as far as combating these scenarios... **YES** - these things don't happen overnight. But neither did the problems.

Paypal has had ample time to much farther along the FIXIT path than they are, currently. They chose not to address these issues, many years ago.

It was the Expedient and More-Profitable thing for them to do. Now, they've supposedly changed their stripes. Good for them! Time will tell if it's too late.

For many, it is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139360-ebay-where-did-all-the-fun-go?source=feed#comment-522045 522045
But (you knew one was coming, right?), I view ebay's actions differently. For quite a while now, they have acted, so as to cause a reaction. Look deeper within their action and you'll see their goal.

What would happen if everyone that uses ebay for auctions was to become fully aware of the scope and possibility of shill bidding? Auctions would die, correct?

Is that not what JD et. al. have been prophesizing all this time - the death of auctions? They want that. Or wanted it. Today they do, tomorrow they don't. Or vice versa.

They prolly view your ongoing mission as a plus in their favor. But I do understand your desire to educate others..

There's viable alternatives to the hidden bidder policy and you seem to be aware of that fact. Some of those alternatives would even open up auctions to the potential for more bidders, because quite a few experienced ebayers do know about shill bidding.

The amount of money kept from the site due to "shill bidder concern" is more than whatever money is gained by that shill bidding. It has to be - every seller knows that bidding has fallen off since hidden bidders was implimented.

A viable alternative would mean more bids, more money and more revenue for ebay. But ebay doesn't choose that route. Why do you think that is?]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 18:06:48 -0400
But (you knew one was coming, right?), I view ebay's actions differently. For quite a while now, they have acted, so as to cause a reaction. Look deeper within their action and you'll see their goal.

What would happen if everyone that uses ebay for auctions was to become fully aware of the scope and possibility of shill bidding? Auctions would die, correct?

Is that not what JD et. al. have been prophesizing all this time - the death of auctions? They want that. Or wanted it. Today they do, tomorrow they don't. Or vice versa.

They prolly view your ongoing mission as a plus in their favor. But I do understand your desire to educate others..

There's viable alternatives to the hidden bidder policy and you seem to be aware of that fact. Some of those alternatives would even open up auctions to the potential for more bidders, because quite a few experienced ebayers do know about shill bidding.

The amount of money kept from the site due to "shill bidder concern" is more than whatever money is gained by that shill bidding. It has to be - every seller knows that bidding has fallen off since hidden bidders was implimented.

A viable alternative would mean more bids, more money and more revenue for ebay. But ebay doesn't choose that route. Why do you think that is?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139360-ebay-where-did-all-the-fun-go?source=feed#comment-521952 521952
"But the real and simple reason is eBay is no longer fun."

".. and others, myself included, were all too alienated by eBay’s bureaucratic and political MBA culture."


Keith, believe it or not, that culture has gotten worse. It was what killed ebay 3.0 - killed by the Prez of Marketplaces. None other than the Donahoe.

BTW - I joined X-COM as a member in 2000. We were kicking the azz of ebay's Billpoint, weren't we? Good times!]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 17:09:52 -0400
"But the real and simple reason is eBay is no longer fun."

".. and others, myself included, were all too alienated by eBay’s bureaucratic and political MBA culture."


Keith, believe it or not, that culture has gotten worse. It was what killed ebay 3.0 - killed by the Prez of Marketplaces. None other than the Donahoe.

BTW - I joined X-COM as a member in 2000. We were kicking the azz of ebay's Billpoint, weren't we? Good times!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139378-is-ebay-s-real-threat-amazon-or-classifieds-or-both?source=feed#comment-521889 521889

Scot, you have it right. eBay's real threat is both Amazon and online Classifieds. And the recession. And high postage fees. And the fading novelty of auctions. And all the other factors that have been mentioned, for years now.

But add them all up and ebay should still be doing what IT did back in 2000 - making sales on an increasing scale. Except for one thing. Whatever factors IT had a hand in Creating.

IT drove many sellers to CL, and still does even today. IT drove many sellers to Amazon, and continues to do so. Those sites would have seen a natural influx over the years, that is true, but ebay created an unnatural stampede.

Not surprising to some, I'm sure, but I can find partial blame on them for the dramatic rise in Postal rates. Indirectly. Back in 2005 when the USPS started to see mega$$$, they let their opportunistic thinking get the better of them.

Ebay should have formed a partnership with their sellers and the USPS to keep rates down. Their (ebay's) influence could have made a difference, but they were off on M&A buying sprees and didn't give a dam about the Critical Mass.

That $2.6B frivolous expenditure will always remain as a moment when ebay could have done so much better than IT has become. IYKWIM. A pivotal point, pissed away.

Now it's the Noise's turn and they don't give a dam about ebay.]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 16:34:25 -0400

Scot, you have it right. eBay's real threat is both Amazon and online Classifieds. And the recession. And high postage fees. And the fading novelty of auctions. And all the other factors that have been mentioned, for years now.

But add them all up and ebay should still be doing what IT did back in 2000 - making sales on an increasing scale. Except for one thing. Whatever factors IT had a hand in Creating.

IT drove many sellers to CL, and still does even today. IT drove many sellers to Amazon, and continues to do so. Those sites would have seen a natural influx over the years, that is true, but ebay created an unnatural stampede.

Not surprising to some, I'm sure, but I can find partial blame on them for the dramatic rise in Postal rates. Indirectly. Back in 2005 when the USPS started to see mega$$$, they let their opportunistic thinking get the better of them.

Ebay should have formed a partnership with their sellers and the USPS to keep rates down. Their (ebay's) influence could have made a difference, but they were off on M&A buying sprees and didn't give a dam about the Critical Mass.

That $2.6B frivolous expenditure will always remain as a moment when ebay could have done so much better than IT has become. IYKWIM. A pivotal point, pissed away.

Now it's the Noise's turn and they don't give a dam about ebay.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139593-why-isn-t-paypal-more-successful?source=feed#comment-521825 521825
They know quite a bit about me. My CCard #, my SS #, my checking account # and all sorts of personal data. I have used them for a long time, but I have never trusted them for a single minute.

They have no principles. That's primarily due to their association with ebay. True, most of my distrust stems from a "seller's point of view" and how I am at their mercy; even when they may know The Truth, they will typically rule in favor of Expediency.

That commitment to Expediency, rather than Truth and Fairness, is a double-edged sword, at times. It can sometimes cut the buyer - one that has been scammed by an unscrupulous seller of bogus goods.

The Paypal employee's comments above may be factual, but they neglect one basic point. It may be true that only a few people are left to twist in the wind, but the majority of that "few" has most certainly been fleeced, Big Time!

Scammers don't usually make it a habit to ply their trade in the Nickel and Dime market. If you get scammed, and you have no CC company to fall back on, you will be out a considerable sum of money.

Then you'll be talking to "Jim" (who has a curious Punjab accent), after 4 phone calls and twice as many disconnects, who tells you that *if* paypal can get the money back from the Seller (scam artist now enroute to parts-unknown), then You will get your money back.

And not one dammed minute sooner.]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 15:53:38 -0400
They know quite a bit about me. My CCard #, my SS #, my checking account # and all sorts of personal data. I have used them for a long time, but I have never trusted them for a single minute.

They have no principles. That's primarily due to their association with ebay. True, most of my distrust stems from a "seller's point of view" and how I am at their mercy; even when they may know The Truth, they will typically rule in favor of Expediency.

That commitment to Expediency, rather than Truth and Fairness, is a double-edged sword, at times. It can sometimes cut the buyer - one that has been scammed by an unscrupulous seller of bogus goods.

The Paypal employee's comments above may be factual, but they neglect one basic point. It may be true that only a few people are left to twist in the wind, but the majority of that "few" has most certainly been fleeced, Big Time!

Scammers don't usually make it a habit to ply their trade in the Nickel and Dime market. If you get scammed, and you have no CC company to fall back on, you will be out a considerable sum of money.

Then you'll be talking to "Jim" (who has a curious Punjab accent), after 4 phone calls and twice as many disconnects, who tells you that *if* paypal can get the money back from the Seller (scam artist now enroute to parts-unknown), then You will get your money back.

And not one dammed minute sooner.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134590-stumbleupon-s-ebay-spinoff-valuation-29-million?source=feed#comment-486087 486087
I heard somebody screaming: "Buy high, sell low" and in a lickity-split moment I just knew ebay was being mentioned.

sho 'nuff

But Hey!! Their stock's still going strong, so what's to complain?! Second straight quarter of losses (worse than the last, actually) and all they needed to do was beat the estimates, to look stellar.

The bar is now set at "non-tank". That's much easier than double-digit growth. JD thanks you all.]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 16:10:16 -0400
I heard somebody screaming: "Buy high, sell low" and in a lickity-split moment I just knew ebay was being mentioned.

sho 'nuff

But Hey!! Their stock's still going strong, so what's to complain?! Second straight quarter of losses (worse than the last, actually) and all they needed to do was beat the estimates, to look stellar.

The bar is now set at "non-tank". That's much easier than double-digit growth. JD thanks you all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132627-ebay-s-earnings-a-successful-bid-for-market-leadership?source=feed#comment-476302 476302
www.fool.com/investing...


"Investors falsely believe that names like Dell or eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) will see their relative valuations return to their headier days. They won’t.

Why? Captain Obvious would say that growth has slowed, technology evolved, and competition emerged. But all that misses the real reason. Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by chasing growth through overexpansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock option-driven dilution."


The investor nazi says, No dividend for you!]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:34:06 -0400
www.fool.com/investing...


"Investors falsely believe that names like Dell or eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) will see their relative valuations return to their headier days. They won’t.

Why? Captain Obvious would say that growth has slowed, technology evolved, and competition emerged. But all that misses the real reason. Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by chasing growth through overexpansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock option-driven dilution."


The investor nazi says, No dividend for you!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132627-ebay-s-earnings-a-successful-bid-for-market-leadership?source=feed#comment-476267 476267
Yep, Amazon isn't in the same league as ebay. Of that $4.9B, Amazon actually stocked, managed, sold and shipped approx. 70% of it. And they had a part in stocking and shipping some of the remaining 30%.

eBPay, on the other hand, had no contact *WHATSOEVER* with any of the $10.8B of items that OTHER people sold on their site. Good thing, for the buyers. Gawd knows what they would have received. Empty promises, most likely.

That's all they're good at delivering - Empty Promises. BTW - got your dividend check from them yet? Give 'em a few more days; they just mailed it out last week.


As a side note.. ebay announces a second, straight quarter of losses and the stock price goes UP.. it's plain to see why we're in this economic mess we're in, but for the life of me, I'd have thought we'd have learned a thing or two by now. The algae layer must be a foot thick on the gene pool, by now. Every day I expect to hear of people simply driving their cars into the ocean, smiling and waving as they plunge downward, not a thought (!) nor care in their sheeple, little minds. Ah, sweet ignorance.. 'tis a blessing. Ain't that right, ebayplus?]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:10:46 -0400
Yep, Amazon isn't in the same league as ebay. Of that $4.9B, Amazon actually stocked, managed, sold and shipped approx. 70% of it. And they had a part in stocking and shipping some of the remaining 30%.

eBPay, on the other hand, had no contact *WHATSOEVER* with any of the $10.8B of items that OTHER people sold on their site. Good thing, for the buyers. Gawd knows what they would have received. Empty promises, most likely.

That's all they're good at delivering - Empty Promises. BTW - got your dividend check from them yet? Give 'em a few more days; they just mailed it out last week.


As a side note.. ebay announces a second, straight quarter of losses and the stock price goes UP.. it's plain to see why we're in this economic mess we're in, but for the life of me, I'd have thought we'd have learned a thing or two by now. The algae layer must be a foot thick on the gene pool, by now. Every day I expect to hear of people simply driving their cars into the ocean, smiling and waving as they plunge downward, not a thought (!) nor care in their sheeple, little minds. Ah, sweet ignorance.. 'tis a blessing. Ain't that right, ebayplus?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130887-ebay-appears-to-be-refocusing-on-core-businesses?source=feed#comment-465900 465900 "The waste of time, talent, and resources on these two acquisitions.. "

Fear not! For little was spent in the course of time, although the resources you mention were indeed squandered, yet not one iota of talent was used. Not.. at all.

Consider this quote from those close to the founders of StumbleUpon, now re-united with their creation:

"“The company is amply funded. And everyone is glad that the company is away from eBay." Glad that it is away from ebay; as if ebay is a known molester, or some other insidious creature.

It is. And that very same think tank of metric-minded, no talent dullards could not refocus on ebay's original idea if their life depended upon it. Luckily, for them, it doesn't.

Not so fortunate for some folks, your ebay share value does depend upon it.]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:39:34 -0400 "The waste of time, talent, and resources on these two acquisitions.. "

Fear not! For little was spent in the course of time, although the resources you mention were indeed squandered, yet not one iota of talent was used. Not.. at all.

Consider this quote from those close to the founders of StumbleUpon, now re-united with their creation:

"“The company is amply funded. And everyone is glad that the company is away from eBay." Glad that it is away from ebay; as if ebay is a known molester, or some other insidious creature.

It is. And that very same think tank of metric-minded, no talent dullards could not refocus on ebay's original idea if their life depended upon it. Luckily, for them, it doesn't.

Not so fortunate for some folks, your ebay share value does depend upon it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126471-ebay-out-with-the-new-in-with-the-old?source=feed#comment-431328 431328
Other than that, all other comments are more valid than the actual article.]]> Wed, 18 Mar 2009 17:16:17 -0400
Other than that, all other comments are more valid than the actual article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124877-ebay-where-it-stands-where-it-should-be-headed?source=feed#comment-425842 425842
Items that lean more towards Fixed Price (FP), enjoyed some success as auctions, for a while, back in 2004-6. Those type of auctions are definitely on the decline.

That's not to say that they couldn't still enjoy some degree of success, under the correct conditions. But today's ebay is far from those conditions.

If ebay was to nurture an auction atmosphere, all Collectible auctions would flourish, as would a limited group of the FP items, sold at auction.

There is ZERO nurturing of auctions taking place at ebay. This isn't news to most ebay users. And due to ebay's attempt to Amazon-ify the site, it's practically a Given.

But since we have current newspaper headlines that read: Rare Superman comic sells for $317,200..

.. it not only validates Collectibles auctions' profitability, it also underscores ebay mgmt's lack of insight into what constitutes 50% of their marketplace revenue.

Lack of insight.

Says it all.

They should have separated the auctions from the FP (as they lost auction-focus), in 2004. As the FP lingered in auctions, and piled up un-sold, they diluted the vitality of auctions.

In 2006, ebay mgmt created the debacle known as Ebay Express (EE). They monetized it every-which-way possible, cannibalizing the sellers' listings with Shopping.com adverts and even going so far as to putting the entire shopping.com catalog within EE.

They did all that and without listening to any seller advice. Then, EE failed. They blamed the sellers' items and poor adoption (blaming the buyers) : they blamed everyone but themselves.


On Mar 10 07:57 PM Media Tech Analyst wrote:

> I've known about HA for some time now and their bounce off eBay Live
> auctions in Dec. Thought they were doing something with WP auctions.
> Anyway, this supports my point that certain categories are suitable
> for auctions given the HA deals primarily with Collectibles and Art.
> ]]> Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:13:44 -0400
Items that lean more towards Fixed Price (FP), enjoyed some success as auctions, for a while, back in 2004-6. Those type of auctions are definitely on the decline.

That's not to say that they couldn't still enjoy some degree of success, under the correct conditions. But today's ebay is far from those conditions.

If ebay was to nurture an auction atmosphere, all Collectible auctions would flourish, as would a limited group of the FP items, sold at auction.

There is ZERO nurturing of auctions taking place at ebay. This isn't news to most ebay users. And due to ebay's attempt to Amazon-ify the site, it's practically a Given.

But since we have current newspaper headlines that read: Rare Superman comic sells for $317,200..

.. it not only validates Collectibles auctions' profitability, it also underscores ebay mgmt's lack of insight into what constitutes 50% of their marketplace revenue.

Lack of insight.

Says it all.

They should have separated the auctions from the FP (as they lost auction-focus), in 2004. As the FP lingered in auctions, and piled up un-sold, they diluted the vitality of auctions.

In 2006, ebay mgmt created the debacle known as Ebay Express (EE). They monetized it every-which-way possible, cannibalizing the sellers' listings with Shopping.com adverts and even going so far as to putting the entire shopping.com catalog within EE.

They did all that and without listening to any seller advice. Then, EE failed. They blamed the sellers' items and poor adoption (blaming the buyers) : they blamed everyone but themselves.


On Mar 10 07:57 PM Media Tech Analyst wrote:

> I've known about HA for some time now and their bounce off eBay Live
> auctions in Dec. Thought they were doing something with WP auctions.
> Anyway, this supports my point that certain categories are suitable
> for auctions given the HA deals primarily with Collectibles and Art.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125672-what-are-analysts-saying-about-ebay-s-analyst-day?source=feed#comment-425215 425215
I will bet that not a single person posting on this forum, or any forum for that matter, HATES ebay.

Donahoe, et al ??? That's a different story.

Therein lies the basic truth. We LOVE ebay and HATE its destruction.

Which means: Anyone that constantly finds fault with our viewpoints, must HATE ebay and LOVE its destructors.]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 20:26:27 -0400
I will bet that not a single person posting on this forum, or any forum for that matter, HATES ebay.

Donahoe, et al ??? That's a different story.

Therein lies the basic truth. We LOVE ebay and HATE its destruction.

Which means: Anyone that constantly finds fault with our viewpoints, must HATE ebay and LOVE its destructors.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125672-what-are-analysts-saying-about-ebay-s-analyst-day?source=feed#comment-423845 423845
For those folks that don't know, when Tippie first posted here (long ago!), she/he would give us "complainers" a lot of grief!

Over time, even Tippie came to understand that we weren't just complaining because we like to do that - we complain because we know in our hearts just how much the ebay brand has been stomped to death by its mgmt.

And Tippie is 100% correct - ebay's stock should be at $100 per. It would be too, if not for the inept mgmt.

That's what happens when bean-counters are put in charge of a sales-oriented company. I thought we all learned that lesson back in the days of "efficiency experts", RIF and other stupid things.]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 20:55:37 -0400
For those folks that don't know, when Tippie first posted here (long ago!), she/he would give us "complainers" a lot of grief!

Over time, even Tippie came to understand that we weren't just complaining because we like to do that - we complain because we know in our hearts just how much the ebay brand has been stomped to death by its mgmt.

And Tippie is 100% correct - ebay's stock should be at $100 per. It would be too, if not for the inept mgmt.

That's what happens when bean-counters are put in charge of a sales-oriented company. I thought we all learned that lesson back in the days of "efficiency experts", RIF and other stupid things.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125672-what-are-analysts-saying-about-ebay-s-analyst-day?source=feed#comment-423837 423837
"In closing, let me echo the remarks of my friend and colleague, Stephanie Tilenius, our GM of North America, who said at the Channel Advisor conference earlier this month that we are moving towards a more retail-like experience and that you will not recognize eBay this time next year."

Those words were spoken by Lorrie Norrington, President of eBay Global Marketplace Operations, to a group of PESA (professional ebay sellers assoc.) sellers, on April 23, 2008. She was referring to Stephanie Tilenius' remarks on April 2, 2008.

We're almost at that "one year" mark, so a couple of questions come to mind:

How's that more retail-like experience working out for you? Not so good, huh? All of the ebay peeps now claim that they NEVER said they wanted retail.

How about that "unrecognizable" aspect.. disrupted enough yet? No, still not finished? I must have read more into those statements ebay made last year. I thought "completion" by this year, but should have thought FUBAR. Silly me.

Analysts... what are we gonna do with you?! Are you so blind that you can't see a bait-and-switch theme?]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 20:43:26 -0400
"In closing, let me echo the remarks of my friend and colleague, Stephanie Tilenius, our GM of North America, who said at the Channel Advisor conference earlier this month that we are moving towards a more retail-like experience and that you will not recognize eBay this time next year."

Those words were spoken by Lorrie Norrington, President of eBay Global Marketplace Operations, to a group of PESA (professional ebay sellers assoc.) sellers, on April 23, 2008. She was referring to Stephanie Tilenius' remarks on April 2, 2008.

We're almost at that "one year" mark, so a couple of questions come to mind:

How's that more retail-like experience working out for you? Not so good, huh? All of the ebay peeps now claim that they NEVER said they wanted retail.

How about that "unrecognizable" aspect.. disrupted enough yet? No, still not finished? I must have read more into those statements ebay made last year. I thought "completion" by this year, but should have thought FUBAR. Silly me.

Analysts... what are we gonna do with you?! Are you so blind that you can't see a bait-and-switch theme?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124877-ebay-where-it-stands-where-it-should-be-headed?source=feed#comment-420952 420952

"Advertising and classifieds are clearly strong businesses.. "

Yes, and those Sponsored Ads that directly compete with ebay sellers' items are a wonderful form of cannibalism. Or would that be Predator-ism? No matter; they ultimately take away from both the seller and ebay.


"The auction business accounts for half of gross merchandise volume but matured two years ago and appears to be in the decline phase of its product cycle."

I realize that you go on to qualify this comment by making suggestions on how ebay might return some vitality to the auctions side of things - BUT -

Do some research on Heritage Auctions. According to their website: "$704,176,431 sold at auction and in private treaty sales over the past 12 months."

HA was one of the Live Auctions users that ebay cancelled as of Dec 2008. Still, just a casual view of their Jan 2009 auctions show sales at $65MM.

They'll prolly end up making More off-ebay AND clear even more by not paying ebay fees!

Auctions are far from dead. Hells-bells, ebay the 800 pound gorilla has been trying to kill 'em for years now and they STILL account for 50% of the marketplace.

STILL.]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 16:45:12 -0400

"Advertising and classifieds are clearly strong businesses.. "

Yes, and those Sponsored Ads that directly compete with ebay sellers' items are a wonderful form of cannibalism. Or would that be Predator-ism? No matter; they ultimately take away from both the seller and ebay.


"The auction business accounts for half of gross merchandise volume but matured two years ago and appears to be in the decline phase of its product cycle."

I realize that you go on to qualify this comment by making suggestions on how ebay might return some vitality to the auctions side of things - BUT -

Do some research on Heritage Auctions. According to their website: "$704,176,431 sold at auction and in private treaty sales over the past 12 months."

HA was one of the Live Auctions users that ebay cancelled as of Dec 2008. Still, just a casual view of their Jan 2009 auctions show sales at $65MM.

They'll prolly end up making More off-ebay AND clear even more by not paying ebay fees!

Auctions are far from dead. Hells-bells, ebay the 800 pound gorilla has been trying to kill 'em for years now and they STILL account for 50% of the marketplace.

STILL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124938-eight-ways-ebay-can-unlock-shareholder-value?source=feed#comment-420893 420893
They are of a singular mindset - monetize what already exists or monetize something 'new' that can be shoehorned into what already exists.

What would be so danged wrong with improving ebay's actual business? You know, the one they claim to be: "A venue that brings buyers and sellers together".

NOT something new, and for GAWDS sake, not simply more squeezing of the drained turnips.

If you think that "improving ebay's actual business" means additional bells and whistles, or charging more for the current bells and whistles...

.. you're either John Donahoe, a stock ANALyst, an MBA holder, all of the previous, OR you simply have no public/people sales experience.


Experience at selling and/or recommending stock doesn't qualify.]]> Tue, 10 Mar 2009 15:54:09 -0400
They are of a singular mindset - monetize what already exists or monetize something 'new' that can be shoehorned into what already exists.

What would be so danged wrong with improving ebay's actual business? You know, the one they claim to be: "A venue that brings buyers and sellers together".

NOT something new, and for GAWDS sake, not simply more squeezing of the drained turnips.

If you think that "improving ebay's actual business" means additional bells and whistles, or charging more for the current bells and whistles...

.. you're either John Donahoe, a stock ANALyst, an MBA holder, all of the previous, OR you simply have no public/people sales experience.


Experience at selling and/or recommending stock doesn't qualify.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123636-three-stocks-with-a-margin-of-safety?source=feed#comment-411541 411541

Your share of those profits - that $3B pot o'gold - has been sent to you!

As in, the check's in the mail.

Let us all know how that works out for you!]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:12:44 -0500

Your share of those profits - that $3B pot o'gold - has been sent to you!

As in, the check's in the mail.

Let us all know how that works out for you!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123588-has-the-microsoft-live-cashback-program-returned?source=feed#comment-411515 411515
"All too easy"]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:57:06 -0500
"All too easy"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123404-shares-of-ebay-hit-seven-year-low?source=feed#comment-411470 411470
Shortly after the April 29 stockholder meeting we should all know what that group thinks! Most likely, it will look like farther trust is placed upon the wrong captain, for a once-great ship.

Afterwards, the "small-time stock players" should give serious consideration to looking at the reality of the situation. They are no different from that group of ebay-users that Donahue refers to as "noise"; aka disgruntled sellers.

Both groups continue to hold out hope that ebay will "turn around" and finally provide a well-deserved dividend from their investment. To the group of sellers, that dividend takes many forms, but basically it consists of a return to a profitable experience while *using* ebay, not the other way around.

To that diehard group of "small time" ebay stockholders, the definition of dividend is simple: some cold, hard cash for their loyalty. Without going into details about how ebay views the word, Loyalty, suffice it to say that they possess none, to anyone.

You may view that hoard of $3B in cash as something that ebay can easily give up a portion and make everyone happy. You can forget that idea. It ain't gonna happen. Ever.

That moola is stashed offshore and any dooling out of it will result in its taxation. Nope, just ain't gonna happen. Even when ebay purchased BML, they borrowed against their credit line to do that; no readily-available cash was used.

So you see, stockholders, you are in the very same boat as those Noisy Sellers. Your carrot is that pile of cash; forever out of your reach. Our carrot is that pile of potential customers; forever out of our reach.

======================...

Q1: if that $3B didn't exist, what would be your take, as a potential investor, on the future of ebay? Take your time with an answer. Go look at all of the "data" on the company and be sure to disregard any reference to that $3B stash.

While you're at it, any notation for Goodwill and its assigned dollar amount might require a bit of disregard, as well. At its current valuation of a little more than $7B, that seems to be a bit on the high side.

Ebay even has that Goodwill figure *increasing* by Three-Quarters of a Billion Dollars ($768,245,000) over the previous year's amount.

Q2: Who here believes that ebay's business Goodwill got better in 2008?

Q3: Is the calculation of business Goodwill based upon hard data, or simply a figure that makes all other amounts "work out"?

Q4: What would the balance sheet look like if that $7B was reduced, or eliminated?

For extra credit: How can Goodwill increase, when almost all other factors decreased? And please don't talk about Goodwill that came along with acquisitions - once ebay acquired it, goodwill ceased to exist.
]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:36:03 -0500
Shortly after the April 29 stockholder meeting we should all know what that group thinks! Most likely, it will look like farther trust is placed upon the wrong captain, for a once-great ship.

Afterwards, the "small-time stock players" should give serious consideration to looking at the reality of the situation. They are no different from that group of ebay-users that Donahue refers to as "noise"; aka disgruntled sellers.

Both groups continue to hold out hope that ebay will "turn around" and finally provide a well-deserved dividend from their investment. To the group of sellers, that dividend takes many forms, but basically it consists of a return to a profitable experience while *using* ebay, not the other way around.

To that diehard group of "small time" ebay stockholders, the definition of dividend is simple: some cold, hard cash for their loyalty. Without going into details about how ebay views the word, Loyalty, suffice it to say that they possess none, to anyone.

You may view that hoard of $3B in cash as something that ebay can easily give up a portion and make everyone happy. You can forget that idea. It ain't gonna happen. Ever.

That moola is stashed offshore and any dooling out of it will result in its taxation. Nope, just ain't gonna happen. Even when ebay purchased BML, they borrowed against their credit line to do that; no readily-available cash was used.

So you see, stockholders, you are in the very same boat as those Noisy Sellers. Your carrot is that pile of cash; forever out of your reach. Our carrot is that pile of potential customers; forever out of our reach.

======================...

Q1: if that $3B didn't exist, what would be your take, as a potential investor, on the future of ebay? Take your time with an answer. Go look at all of the "data" on the company and be sure to disregard any reference to that $3B stash.

While you're at it, any notation for Goodwill and its assigned dollar amount might require a bit of disregard, as well. At its current valuation of a little more than $7B, that seems to be a bit on the high side.

Ebay even has that Goodwill figure *increasing* by Three-Quarters of a Billion Dollars ($768,245,000) over the previous year's amount.

Q2: Who here believes that ebay's business Goodwill got better in 2008?

Q3: Is the calculation of business Goodwill based upon hard data, or simply a figure that makes all other amounts "work out"?

Q4: What would the balance sheet look like if that $7B was reduced, or eliminated?

For extra credit: How can Goodwill increase, when almost all other factors decreased? And please don't talk about Goodwill that came along with acquisitions - once ebay acquired it, goodwill ceased to exist.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122055-ebay-listens-to-customers-retires-old-search-engine?source=feed#comment-406085 406085
Thanks for pointing out how ebay has so many non-productive searches taking place!

Yes, you're right, it is a messed-up POS. Half of those searches are the sellers looking for their own listings - they're hoping (against all reason) that at least one of their products will show up in a search.

As you noticed, Amazon has only 27% as many searches as ePay, yet manages to Slam-Dunk on all financial metrics! Meanwhile, ebay keeps shooting Bricks.

Thanks again for that link! Got any more?]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:24:48 -0500
Thanks for pointing out how ebay has so many non-productive searches taking place!

Yes, you're right, it is a messed-up POS. Half of those searches are the sellers looking for their own listings - they're hoping (against all reason) that at least one of their products will show up in a search.

As you noticed, Amazon has only 27% as many searches as ePay, yet manages to Slam-Dunk on all financial metrics! Meanwhile, ebay keeps shooting Bricks.

Thanks again for that link! Got any more?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122138-suggestions-for-ebay-2-0?source=feed#comment-406068 406068
in modern lingo..

WORD!]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:12:35 -0500
in modern lingo..

WORD!]]>