Loading...
Symbols:
Get Seeking Alpha Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Get Free Stock Alerts by Email!
Transcripts
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- eHealth, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- MIPS Technologies, Inc. F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Alexza Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Alkermes, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Akorn, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited F1Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- The Advisory Board Company F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Thomas Weisel Partners Group, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- The9 Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
-
Editors' Picks
-
Most Popular
- General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?
- Food: Against Self-Sufficiency
- The Fed: Now the World's Largest Private Bank
- Key to the Global Equity Market: Trend and Cycle Analysis of U.S. Retail
- Can a Global Economy Be Managed One Nation at a Time?
- Global Markets Week in Review: Turbulent Times
- Full list of Editors' Picks »
- Jim Rogers on China »
- Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12 »
- Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor? »
- Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing »
- UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point? »
- The Biggest Problem Detroit's Big Three Face »
- 11 Stocks Selling Below Cash »
- Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001 »
- The Autos and Mentality That Ruined Detroit »
- Iceland: What It's Like to Live in a World Without Money »
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News »
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Tony P.
38 Comments
eBay Feedback Changes Getting Negative Feedback
Pfft! Between cheerleading practices, try to keep up.
eBay: Not Everything Needs to Be Auctioned
Maybe it's not a true belief; maybe it's more like an obsessive mindset. They must produce Growth - all of The Street tells them to do that - so they end up attempting to turn commodities into Nails. But that basically fails.
The commodities will naturally morph towards the regular retail experience, which was happening back in 2005, or even earlier. Ebay finally gets on board with that, but does so while trampling over the true Nails. Why?
The Nails market has a ceiling, albeit a somewhat dynamic ceiling, but a ceiling nonetheless. The scarce, rare and collectible goods can be found and sold, but only at a slow rate; a slow rate compared to a manufacturer producing iPods, etc.
Ebay simply is not satisfied with that rate and what revenue it can produce. Well, maybe *they* could be satisfied, but The Street is not. Ebay reacts to that by ignoring, or more aptly put, running over the golden goose.
They should have done one, simple thing that would have prevented all of this current turmoil AND kept the revenue pouring in: divided the site into eBay Classic and Newbay. When this scenario was presented, and rejected, they lost many good top execs.
The ones that remained - the current ivory tower elite - just knew they could make this work as one package. They just KNEW that, because their egos told them so.
eBay Earnings: Bullish Comments Not Supported by Data
As an eCommerce seller, here's my take:
10% growth in Listing Totals (equals)..
12% growth in GMV (equals)...
14% growth in Revenue
The 10% growth in Listing Totals does seem reasonable, but I wonder how much of that is the inclusion of Shopping.com advertisers into the Ebay Express platform? Since there is no specific Metric that shows those sellers are NOT included elsewhere within any metric, I'm betting they are counted in the Listing Total.
The difference between the Listing Totals and the GMV is heralded as an increase in higher quality merchandise. Really? A whole 2% growth? The cost-of-living index is higher than that; which means that the majority of goods would have to be selling at *last year's prices or less*, so that the Higher Quality Merch would make this (spectacular?) 2% growth showing.
And finally, just how do you generate 2% more in revenue, than the amount of goods passed through the site? That answer is easy. Of these three metrics, and the questions they raise, this is the only one that has a definite answer. Increased Fees... aka... ebay's Take Rate.
One thing I did notice, ebay is 'making' more revenue by not spending as much as they have in the past. When they stopped buying Goggle Ads in March (oh yes, they simply stopped), they saved quite a bit. The Spin? uh, we're concentrating on Keeping Customers instead of Acquiring new ones.
And that's why you're not supposed to pay much attention to that flat 1% growth of Active Users. You hear? Do NOT look behind the curtain!
Analysts: eBay's Current Quarter Tracking Well
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Hey, it's only a difference of 53 million and that's a measly 10%. Yep, only 10% - give or take. No biggie.
As I posted on that aforementioned blog: The listing numbers are up because of Double Dipping. The UK and AU items appear on the USA site by default. Those items, and their respective totals, also appear on each *individual* sites' category tally numbers.
The Street may know about the 'test listings', but do they know about the above scenario AND the ShoppingDOTcom items within Ebay Express? At last count, those Shopping/EE items amassed something like 4 Million, of the 14 Million showing as listed on the USA site.
An aside: those Shopping/EE sellers have some of the Worse seller performance records, EVER! Of course, ebay is allowing them onto the site and turning a blind eye towards the sellers' ratings. Those ratings - some running at 12% buyer displeasure - would have regular ebay sellers suspended. Regular sellers get Da Boot at 5%.
eBay Watch: UK PayPal Requirements, Online Auction Wars, Listings Update
When Mr. Barnum uttered those famous words, perhaps he was talking about stock traders. I ask... did BSC start trading at $2 a share on that Friday? I mean, if traders are so intuitively smart, surely they foresaw what THE price/share would be within so short a period of time.
All they had to do was accurately predict the price during the next 48 hour period, and, with all of the necessary info at their disposal, they certainly have no right to Whine now. Do they? Grow up. Trader 'insight' has no bearing upon the real world.
Back on topic...the listing numbers are up because of Double Dipping. The UK and AU items appear on the USA site by default. Those items, and their respective totals, also appear on each *individual* sites' category tally numbers. You may choose to not believe this, but it does speak to that 'trader insight'.
The trouble with a seller being required to offer Paypal and having to accept a Paypal payment, while doing a local transaction, is that he loses all Protection. If you don't understand what this means, or simply don't understand how significant this is, we're back at that 'insight' problem.
Anyhoo, the seller can refuse the Paypal payment and THAT will open up a whole can of worms/Negatives, not to mention the "Bad Buyer Experience" of which he is Guilty. Yes, GUILTY. Now, onto the Dis-advantaging of this lowlife seller for refusing to be screwed. Put his listings on Page 6 and leave 'em there! That'll teach him.
It has nothing to do with preventing fraud. You want to prevent fraud? That's easy; do it just like Amazon. Everybody must register with a credit card and be Verified. Actual verification, not this half-assed procedure that paypal currently performs. Heck, the Paypal of 2000 did a better job. I should know, I was there; one of the first 100K to sign-up.
Who Wins in eBay's New Shipping Cost Requirements?
But, NO! Ebay allows anyone/anywhere to list items on the USA site and don't even bother with indicating that the listing will involve excessive shipping. That just seems to set buyers up for disappointment - totally my opinion, I may be wrong. Whatcha think, JayPee, is that what you meant?
But then again, maybe you're talking about how the UK and Australia items show up *by default* on the USA site. The only indication that something isn't "quite right" with those listings is the price is shown in italics. You have to cut ebay some slack on that tactic; they need those listings to pump up their numbers.
That last example is really one of ebay's True Lies - a real humdinger. If you select the Search option 'Location: US Only' (on left-side box), it still doesn't remove the UK and AU items. They aren't there "by way of inclusion"; they are there *ingrained*, like a tick.
Scot, it all a tactic to eventually impliment shipping cost into the base model of listing, all in the name of Buyer Experience. Who wins then? Why, ebay does with increased FVFs.
Learning Your Way Around eBay's New Seller Dashboard
Your "engineering class " analogy is a bit off-base; truly, comparing apples to oranges. What your professor did was allow the students to set the particular Marks, and then he just filled in the letter-grades. If the smartest student had scored an 83, then that would have been an 'A'. (a true weeder class shouldn't use a curve - that defeats the whole intent of the class- but that's another topic)
If ebay was sincere in their carrot policy, they would have followed the Curve Procedure and not just said that's what they're doing. Such a move would have much more merit as a true incentive plan for seller performance improvement.
To fit your analogy, the discount marks need to be set by the sellers' numbers, not by ebay's outside-the-norm numbers (which, by the way, is contradictory to a curve system). Whatever the highest DSR's attained by the sellers, then THAT is the top tier.
Top Quatrile - 15% discount
Next Quatrile - 10% discount
Next Quatrile - 5% discount
Last Quatrile - No discount
Now that, is an incentive plan, progressive carrots included. Anything less, is a Stick plan. And if that top tier falls to 4.0, as it prolly will with the upcoming Feedback changes, then the underlying problem will be shown to not be the Perception of a buyer's experience, but rather the lack of ebay's guidance in the buyers perception.
I can't make a buyer understand that a $10 shipping charge for a heavy item is cheap and actual cost, no matter what I do. But if the great and mighty ebay was to attempt to educate the buyer, they can get the point across.
Scot, just once, why don't you reply to this logical argument and admit to the Spin?
eBay Watch: eBay's New Fees' Success, Skype on iPhone?
Then your eyes, as well as your mind, are closed. What part of my basic math did you not understand?
This blog regurgitated Scot Wingo's "analysis" that Increased Listings (plus) Increased Conversions (equals) an Increased GMV. There's a few problems with that as a Factual Statement.
1. It cannot be claimed as a Factual Statement; at best, it is a hypothesis. Read on...
2. The Conversion Rate (aka Sell Through Rate) is a metric known only to ebay. If Mr. Wingo has been granted *unprecendented* access to that information, many institutional investors have been slighted. Even better, Wingo states the info covers the 1st Quarter - someone must have a Crystal Ball.
3. My math above. Allow me to 'dumb it down' for you. The actual Dollar Amount of any increased listings determines whether the Gross Market Value (GMV) will increase over any previous time period.
So, if all of the High-Dollar items have pulled an Elvis and left the building, it really doesn't matter how many ADDITIONAL $1 CD's are being listed.
Now, that is an Analysis. Not just speculation plucked from the dark recesses of an orifice and it certainly isn't anything like a Flame. Learn the difference.
eBay Watch: eBay's New Fees' Success, Skype on iPhone?
Such tripe! Those two factors - Listing Numbers and 'Conversions' (STR) - have absolutely no direct relationship to the GMV metric.
Ebay could have a million One-Dollar new listings that ALL sell and the GMV could actually DECREASE. All it would take is for the previous period (week, month, year) to have had a SMALLER quantity of true Quality goods trading at anything more than that One-Dollar amount.
The media items have increased, that is true, but who cares if there's more $2-$5 items on the site. The quality goods that sell for $25-$5000 aren't being shown in Best Match search results and sellers have stopped wasting their money in listing them. GMV is down - way down.
Q1 Data Bodes Well for eBay's New Fees
Yep, you are right on, Scot. On March 3rd, the Sell Through Rate (conversions, to you non-sellers) rose by 7%. Then, for the next 3 days it fell by 21%.
That is One step forward and THREE steps backward.
Man, you got some great analytical skills there! Just look for that sweet spot and those rosey colored specs will reveal IT. Maybe Bear Sterns could use your abilities, right about now.
eBay: A Countercyclical Opportunity
Marketplaces. "We have already seen how eBay will probably see..."
Who's that 'we' and just what have you 'seen'? Nevermind... you had me at that "will probably". That is Certainty at its best and then you back it up with that, "Not only that, this could be ..."
Probably, Could Be... coulda, shoulda, woulda. Yep, I'm sold. Gonna pull all my 401(k) out on Monday and sink it all into ebay.
"Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck summarizes it well."
Ah, is this the same Bear Stearns that taxpayer dollars just prevented from going down the tirdtube? And this Mr. Peck, is he one of their Expert Opinion analysts? What's his current take on Sub-Prime Lending? Still thinks it should rebound? Yeah, sub-prime and ebay are looking Good.
eBay Tales of Surveys and Sellers
I've been looking at these numbers some more...
At the 24.99 range, running galleries, you only save if you sell LESS than 40%. At a 40% sellthru, you save about 2%.
If you have a zero sellthru on 10 items you save 42%, but if you have a 100% sellthru, fees have increased by 21%
So the only people that benefit are those with poor sellthru rates...heh.
So the worse you do...the more you save! (maybe that could be their new slogan...)
Is Donahoe Trying to Destroy eBay?
Horrible Feedback
If the above link doesn't work, copy&paste the ENTIRE link structure from the first post.
Is Donahoe Trying to Destroy eBay?
search.express.ebay.co...
In fact, they not only do not meet the requirements that all regular ebay sellers must meet to be included on eBay Express, their customer service Feedback is at a level where they would be suspended from ebay. If they were a regular ebay seller, they would be suspended. Here's their feedback page:
feedback.ebay.com/ws/e...
Scan down through the comments left by buyers and read how they have been disgusted by this seller's lack of customer service. Those buyers have now been Negatively Affected to a degree where they may never return to ebay.
Donahoe stated that the ebay sellers have caused buyers to also have this Negative Experience, yet ebay now allows sub-standard sellers a Doorway into the site. Why is that? Is it to bolster the listing totals?
I doubt that such a despicable tactic will foster much actual business - I mean, would YOU buy from this seller? They have an 11% Dissatisfied Customers Rating; which means that they pizz-off at least 1 out of 10 customers.
The ebay rules state that a 5% Rating will result in a seller's suspension, but evidently, that rule doesn't apply to Shopping.com sellers that ebay allows into the ebay site. And to think, so many people believe that we are simply griping about ebay policy, when in fact we sellers would like nothing more than to have a safe marketplace.
The truth is that ebay says whatever may sound good at the moment, but that isn't what they actually practice. The "griping and whining" sellers know this. Now, unfortunately, so do 1 out of 10 buyers.
Is Donahoe Trying to Destroy eBay?
forums.ebay.com/db1/fo...
The comments come from various ebay users - buyers, sellers, newbies, diehard collectors with 10+ years buying experience, Power Sellers with over 20,000 transactions/feedbacks... Anyone and Everyone!
Condensed down, the comments basically state... Search SUCKS! Can't buy IT, if I can't find IT.