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  • Avoid Seadrill Despite Wise Backtracking [View article]
    I'm not a "trader" rather a long term investor in most of the equities I purchase. SDRL is a little different for me. When it hit $34 a share in the spring I sold off some of the "speculative" portion in my IRA and purchased SDRL. I would not keep this stock in anything other than an IRA or other tax protected account as your really seeking the dividend rather than appreciation of the share price. I do consider SDRL a spec and it's still hard to wrap my head around keeping a spec for the dividend but it seems be working. I would be interested to hear what the technicals are saying as I have had a hard time finding this info on line. I'd like to add more if the right technicals were in place or sell what I have and pocket the profit if it's prudent to do so. Any Help would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance.
    Jul 21 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Short-Term Uncertainty For Seadrill Is Temporary [View article]
    But SDRL is booked 98% for the next 18 months? I'm not a cheerleader just think at this price regardless of technicals it's a good buy. I could be wrong, completely, I own roughly 10000 shares 1/2 of which I purchased on Monday. ASP of just over $30. I'll take the 10k per quarter cash in this market.
    Mar 19 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Short-Term Uncertainty For Seadrill Is Temporary [View article]
    TC, it's still supply and demand driven, I don't see the worlds general appetite for crude diminishing over the next 5 years? Is your lower crude price based on conjecture or some solid data you care to share? As for the EPS and accounting, if there is a significant change to the business model guidance would change and the determining factor in share price would be how that change effected the overall net worth of SDRL. If company X sells a business unit or spins off a portion of its company is company X still expected to earn the same EPS? Unlikely, but it's what they do with accounting to keep share holder whole that makes all the difference. The track record says they will indeed keep the share holder whole. I purchased additional shares under 33 on Monday and am a long term holder. At 10% div and a stable backlog and potential growth I see this as a solid play in the energy space.
    Mar 19 10:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Neglected The Sign: Don't Feed The Bears! [View article]
    Thanks Steve, I think you may be correct as it bounced 3% off its low in after hours. I bought in fairly heavily back in June, July and August and sold about a third of my shares the third time it hit 2.75 as that seemed to be the short term ceiling, now I'm playing with house money on my shares. Would put new cash to work at about 2.25 but I don't see it gapping that low. Seems range bound at the 2.45 - 2.50 level as that's where it gained support in after hours.
    Feb 2 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Neglected The Sign: Don't Feed The Bears! [View article]
    Is ther any technical data as to a support level on Monday? I'm going to increase my speculative position in this company but as its such a low dollar pps it would be nice to understand how low it can go on Monday. If the market is in sell off mode it could sink harder than anticipated. Anyone a technician?
    Feb 2 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Near-Term Bullish Call For Capstone Mining: $4 By Summer 2014 [View article]
    So Capstone is just coming off its 52 week high, most of the price action has been post acquisition or on the acquisition news. It's trending south now so why not wait till just prior to the release of the testing results. Seems odd to purchase now with current action.
    Great article, well thought out thesis, just seems we might be able to wait out another 10% down prior to buying in.
    Jan 10 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    Hope your Holidays are going well.
    I'm reluctantly in your camp on this one but feel a safer more profitable option may be the March 525 strike. I think it bounces from there back up to the 550 -575 range begining of April. New releases are scheduled for May so the stock should run up on some leaked news late March early April.

    IBeacon is starting to make an impact and the china mobile deal will keep air under the wings for the next six to eight weeks.

    Remember, Cook has a portion of his salary based on the stock price and it's human nature to want to make money (you need look no further than the timing of your appl short articles to know this is true).

    I would normally double down or raise my call spread targets based on your articles but as someone pointed out earlier, eventually, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    I'll buy some insurance as I'm unwilling to pay the tax man to sell even a single share at this point.
    Dec 30 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]
    Happy Thanksgiving Mike!

    More pretty charts, thanks, it saves me the time of actually reading your articles.

    At some point you may indeed be right. It's kind of like playing blackjack, if you lose $100 on the first hand and play $200 on the next and lose that and play $400 on the next etc...etc... Eventually if you don't run out of money you will win.

    I know your going to claim to have made a pile of loot and treasure on your apple shorts but it just does not pass the smell test.

    I've been long apple since January of 2000 when I received a stock purchase option for some Marketing work I did for apple at the time. It was only worth about $500 then, turned out to be the most lucrative job I have ever had.

    You can play the trade anyway you want but this has been maybe the greatest stock over the long haul in history. Yes it might go down some from here or up in the short term, If we knew for certain we would all be rich. I just don't think betting against this particular stock will be profitable in the long run. To much cash on hand and to many smart folks who have proven their model to be extremely profitable.

    If you have a new angle I'm not seeing please share. Your articles seem to rehash the same old thesis (i.e. the market is crowded, no one can win long term in the electronics widget space). I did follow some of your other posts on other stocks and I admit you made me a fair amount of coin but I gotta tell you, you have been an excellent contrarian indicator from an apple perspective. The louder you scream the higher the call spread I put on.

    Thanks in advance for the next leg up.
    Nov 28 10:36 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Realty Income At Current Prices? [View article]
    Great read, well thought out. To both points you and Brad make about valuation, I think there is solid middle ground in the $35 - 37 range. Those folks looking to generate income will still be better served in O than bonds. O pays you monthly and that's a pretty big deal for most income investors. The monthly check has provided a slight uptick in value in the past and I believe it will continue to provide additional valuation now that the stock has come off the unreasonable highs of the previous few months. With another .40 off in late trading yesterday I plan to put some money to work today. I will buy in with 25% of my targeted acquisition allotment upon the open and see where it goes from here.

    I fully anticipate O is going to end up in the $35 range but also feel the fed has shown their cards, QE is here till spring and most likely beyond. Yellen is going to try to cool the markets with talk of taper but with each month that passes without taper, rates will stick around 3%, yes higher than today but if we do see the spike it will, in my opinion, be meet with a fight from the Fed. The golden rule is what? You got it , don't fight the Fed.

    I do think this stock is just above fair value or as you put it, on the high side of fair value. I also believe it is a good diversification play heading into an uncertain year for the market.

    My thought is that if the market does continue to move up O should follow to a certain extent, if the market moves down this could be a safe haven play at 6% yield and price of 32-34, as a floor? Is this a fair assumption or am I way off base with my premise?

    Happy Holidays!
    Nov 27 07:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    Mr. Blair,
    I love the color and splash you used in this particular article. It's kind of like screaming "I have useless data". You may be right about market share and in the end who really cares. Apple generates and makes a boat load of dough on the hardware they do sell and they have an increadibly sticky ecosystem.

    Seems like the risk reward on your short positions is not in line. Making chump change with the possibility of losing real money is not a very smart investment strategy but hey, to each his own.

    On another note:
    Did you happen to see that apple is starting to launch iBeacon in retail? Much bigger story in my opinion than losing share to android in third world markets.

    Apple has a game changing technology that it is leveraging right now, today, and it's going to change the way not only advertising is done (look out google and face book) but also how retail commerce in general is conducted.

    When the real uses of the finger print scan / iBeacon combination are sprung into action it will too late for the other players to come to the table with a competing platform.

    Apple $1000 by August 2015 with a reduced share count in the 900 million range and a dividend hovering around 5%.

    Just one mans point of view.
    Nov 18 07:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Italian Tax Woes Are Just The Tip Of The Iceberg [View article]
    Nice article, I see this as a wake up call to our political hacks here in the states. If the US does not allow large multi nationals to bring their trillions of dollars back to our economy these dollars will be sucked into other economy's. Why not give these firms a 10% flat tax "holiday" enabling them to move their money back home. It would be a huge boon for the US tax coffers and keep the money where it will do our economy the most good.

    It is our infrastructure and open market that create these opportunities for these corporations to thrive. The US should be the beneficiary of these large accumulations of corporate cash and the share holders of these companies should get ther due rewards in the form of share buy backs, dividends and spending on growth initiatives.

    The current corporate tax structure here in the US and abroad make it impossible to be profitable unless you play the shell game. I read an article last week can't find it to quote the author exactly but he was an economist of distinction, it read something to the effect that if the us corporate tax rate was lowered to a flat 17% we would reduce unemployment to less than 5% and at current spending increases still provide a surplus in revenue that could be used to start to pay down the deficit.

    Kinda seems like a no brainier to me.
    Nov 18 05:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Surprises Skeptics As iPhone Registers Record Sales [View article]
    Bidness et al,
    This was a typical sell the good news scenario for apple. It happens at every major announcement. I thought the stock held up well considering how good the news was. What a great quarter and even better guidance. Dividend increase projection is 5% and continued buy back will keep the stock hugging 500 until new product segments are realized. With everyone looking for wearable or tv, my bet is similar to LA Rick in terms of expanding the financial offering and utilizing iBeacon technologies to penetrate retail in both hardware (used to capture) and high interest rate financing (your iTunes account with a credit line). The finger print scan technologies and 64 bit processor are the building blocks of a more secure wireless wallet that will enable retail outlets to move to a "cash registerless" model. This model will reduce operating gross profit margins for apple but will significantly increase revenue and eps and take the stock back into a growth stock profile. My opinion is that If your a trader of this stock get out now as it will be a stuck in a range +|- $50 for the next 6 -12 months. If your an investor accumulate on dips below $500. I'm long Apple and have been for about forever. Unfortunately all but a very limited quantity of my apple holdings are in brokerage not tax deferred accounts and this makes it difficult and costly to move in and out or trade around this position. Any ideas for me on this front from the SA community?
    Oct 30 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's 64-Bit A7 Processor A 'Gimmick'? No, But It's Not The Next 'Big Thing' Either [View article]
    It is the first and only mobile 64bit, it's a foundation for new technologies and sets Apple apart from its competitors. Innovation is done one building block at a time. One day your heading to Barnes and Nobel to buy a book the next your ordering them from the thrown in the comfort of your own bathroom. Now that's innovation my friend. I'm not a techie but I have never seen apple advertise the technical's of the appliance only the functionality. I loved your info on Intel at the beginning of the year, made some great coin, hope your wrong on Apple.
    Oct 28 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Move Revealed? [View article]
    Could this be something to do with iBeacon?
    I'm intrigued by the idea of the iBeacon and finger print scanning as a new currency i.e. charging your iTunes account for purchases made with your phone or other apple product and that account soon being based on an Apple line of credit. Talk about sticky ecosystem!
    Oct 28 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New iPads Are Out And They Are Gorgeous: Sell The News [View article]
    The very nature of Mr Blair's article and his short term short position speak to a very short time line for his thesis to unfold. It took Audi 20 years of innovation and outstanding quality to move the needle. This article is suggesting that this kind of change is going to take place within a few short months. I'm not an apple cheerleader, I own a single apple product (an iPad 1) but am a long term holder of the stock. The products and passion of the apple base are the reason I stay long. Well that andthe tax man. I recently sold my G class Mercedes for a Q7 but that's because it was the better product. When Samsung and Nokia or MS make a better mouse trap it will be time to sell the stock, not when Apple is still making, even by the authors own volition, best in class products. To me a phone is a phone and a laptop is a laptop but to the overwhelming majority of folks these days the apple gadgets are far and away the best. I don't believe the author bought his Audi thinking the Mercedes was better but hey an Audi is good enough.
    Oct 25 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment