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  • Is This A Good Time To Buy Seadrill? [View article]
    Mr Duval,
    On this I totally agree. Us rank amateurs have to be very careful about not becoming emotionally attached to any position and diversification discipline is a must.

    There is a very fine line when investing your own hard earned cash as its almost like representing yourself in a jury trial. As I commented above I think I blew it with SDRL. I think I put to much faith in my investment thesis and broke with some of my normal investment covenants as this one fell like a rock.

    I hope the lesson learned does not cost me too much of that hard earned cash. I try to look at each investment as an individual investment rather than part of the whole portfolio. I think that's an advantage at times but again on this one it left a mark. Biotechs been great this year and I'm still showing a marginal gain on the total portfolio but I'm kicking myself pretty good at what that gain might have been without chasing this greased pig.
    Dec 7, 2014. 05:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This A Good Time To Buy Seadrill? [View article]
    Mr. Duval, Confused by your statement. Retail buyers are not " buying the dips" that's just incorrect. The simple fact is that the downward volume has been incredibly steep as the retail / income investor has fled. I Call this a True "blue hair panic". I would love to buy in on a stock with good fundamentals when the feet hit the street like this but unfortunately On this one I was holding the bag. I'm not sure about capitulation as that's a term used by hedge fund managers to make themselves look intelligent. When someone sells some entity buys its the way the markets work. There were several very large buys when the stock hit 12 on Friday were those mom and pop? I can't call a bottom as this stock is in free fall but I can assure you that it's not retail buying the dips. From a tax loss perspective I don't see this being a huge sell. If you owned significant amounts of this you are either already out or are $ cost averaging like me. No one is going to wake up on December 15th and say ok I've lost enough on SDRL let's sell. That's horse left the barn $5 ago. I've purchased some Jan puts as ins but it's really a suckers bet to short this now.

    I actually see a fair amount of shorts coming off the board here and that might offset any tax loss selling there may be. Just my humble educated guess.
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This A Good Time To Buy Seadrill? [View article]
    I am a long term holder of the dog we call SDRL. I have increased my position on the way down and now sit at roughly $22 asp. I can't say I'm comfortable with the total amount of shares I own but is proportionate to my "energy holdings" portion of my diversified portfolio. I have enjoyed the dividend for quite some time on my longer held portion of this so I'd say I'm roughly into it for about $16 asp less div. as a portion of my shares were purchased with said div.

    I am not usually a contrary investor but in recent years have taken some chances on BAC when it fell below $3 and AAPL when it was trading below $400 prior to the split and most recently ARCP when it cratered under $7.50. I've divested of all but my recent ARCP holdings and did well with most of my contrarian picks.

    With that said, I think I blew it with SDRL in a big way. I was betting on OPEC saving their liquid gold rather than dumping it in the ocean at $40 PB. We are looking at an unprecedented market share grab the likes of which we will not likely see again in our lifetimes. We are using a lot more of a resource, that is finite, than ever before. 30 million brls a day still amazes me. To give an idea of the sheer volume that is in just mass alone it's roughly the size of CT and RI combined if you put those barrels side by side.

    My point to all this is, you win some you lose some but gosh darn it they are eventually going to have to drill off shore as demand increases due to low gas and oil prices and if SDRL is still around in 5 years boy they could make a killing. At this point I'd rather hold on and take my paper losses rather than realize them. I've been a fool before and I'll be an idiot again I'm sure but I'm going to stick it out for at least 2 years and see where it lands.
    Dec 6, 2014. 04:09 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Could Gain 50% If It Replaces Schorsch With David Kay [View article]
    Kai, thanks for the article, unsure about the NAV figures but your guess is about as good as any others I have seen. Let's call NAV the ghost that it is for now. Anything north of $10 makes this a great investment at the current price and a great investment for those who bucked the trend and bought this under $8 during the wide spread panic over the initial restatement.

    I do not believe ousting the entire BOD or the COB is going to positively impact the share price and might actually impact the stock in a negative way short term providing more uncertainty to fuel the negativity driving this stock. This is not a short term fix story. Earnings, consolidation, transparency and time are the only things that will right the ship. Dull and boring over the next year, maybe two and that might bring it into $10-$11 range. Kay has done a nice job trying to reel in the drama.

    In my opinion, anything radical will be meet with further sell offs. Only those looking to make a quick buck would advocate removing the entire BOD. It's a non starter. People need to understand that there is a business to run and that's the only way to prove anything to Mr. wall st. Show me the money! Everything else will work itself out.
    Nov 17, 2014. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital - Enough Already, Thoughts From A Shareholder [View article]
    I've purchased chunks every time it dipped below $8. Thesis: Good assets, great leases and income, huge panic sell off = good risk reward. I'm an investor not a trader and risk is part of investing. I may be wrong and only time will tell but again, comfortable with my underlying thesis and the assets I'm investing in. It's now 10% of my portfolio and utilizes most of the "speculative" portion of my portfolio mix.
    Don't really care if they jettison the chairman of the BOD, I don't think it will spike the stock in any meaningful way. After reviewing the Cole deal I was surprised to see RCAP bailing as I thought the deal was favoring RCAP.
    Time, consolidation and earnings will take this stock back up to $12.
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU And U.S. Sanctions Drive Seadrill Down 19% And Exxon Out Of The Arctic [View article]
    NADL is SDRL for all intent and porpose. If SDRL tanks, it will take NADL with it and to a lesser extent if NADL tanks it will take SDRL with it.

    Rosneft contracts will be fine, XOM will spend millions on lobbiest and it will all work out. remember it's mid terms here in the states, I'm sure there are some votes that can be purchased.

    BUt most of all I like the operating platforms in the SDRL lineup and feel the overall leverage they have taken on at peanuts from an interest rate perspective was and still is the right thing to do. They only have 3% of their fleet at 15 years or older. All the other players are going to have spend billions on refits of older ships that can't do what SDRL fleet can do today.

    In a crowded market you either need to be the cheapest or the best. When a prospective client is spending 500-600K per day on a piece of rental equipment, I'm betting "best/most capable" will win 90% of the time. Not really the time to be penny wise and pound foolish if you hear what I'm saying...
    Sep 19, 2014. 08:43 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU And U.S. Sanctions Drive Seadrill Down 19% And Exxon Out Of The Arctic [View article]
    It might hit 28.50 today, if so, buy all you can afford.
    I'm with the author on this, I think SDRL goes ahead with the contracts at least in spirit, XOM is still paying SDRL for the rig, bad for XOM, no effect on SDRL or their profitability short term. Too much panick, I was stopped out at 33.50 looking to get back in @ anything south of 29 today.
    Sep 19, 2014. 06:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Charts That Explain Seadrill's Debt Situation [View article]
    After being stopped out at 33.50 ( my avg share price was 33 ) I'm looking to get back in to SDRL. I've asked before this question before on SA but didn't receive any feedback. I'm not a great or even good technician, having said that has anyone built the technical case for catching this falling knife. I thought the modest bounce yesterday was encouraging as I had purchase a small amount at 30 but only used the div proceeds over the last three quarters to establish this position. It looked to my untrained eye as though SDRL had support in the high 29's on Friday/Monday.

    I believe in the drilling market, shale is fine and NG is abundant but you need look no further than Westport Innovations to understand NG is not going to get out of the starting block. EV's won't haul goods to market, it's still an oil based economy and UDW drilling has been very profitable for the mega oil conglomerates. It's just my investment thesis but I believe the drillers will rebound sooner rather than later, however, if there is technical information that would point even lower, I would add that data to my thesis and act accordingly.
    Sep 17, 2014. 05:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Seadrill Despite Wise Backtracking [View article]
    I'm not a "trader" rather a long term investor in most of the equities I purchase. SDRL is a little different for me. When it hit $34 a share in the spring I sold off some of the "speculative" portion in my IRA and purchased SDRL. I would not keep this stock in anything other than an IRA or other tax protected account as your really seeking the dividend rather than appreciation of the share price. I do consider SDRL a spec and it's still hard to wrap my head around keeping a spec for the dividend but it seems be working. I would be interested to hear what the technicals are saying as I have had a hard time finding this info on line. I'd like to add more if the right technicals were in place or sell what I have and pocket the profit if it's prudent to do so. Any Help would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance.
    Jul 21, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Short-Term Uncertainty For Seadrill Is Temporary [View article]
    But SDRL is booked 98% for the next 18 months? I'm not a cheerleader just think at this price regardless of technicals it's a good buy. I could be wrong, completely, I own roughly 10000 shares 1/2 of which I purchased on Monday. ASP of just over $30. I'll take the 10k per quarter cash in this market.
    Mar 19, 2014. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Short-Term Uncertainty For Seadrill Is Temporary [View article]
    TC, it's still supply and demand driven, I don't see the worlds general appetite for crude diminishing over the next 5 years? Is your lower crude price based on conjecture or some solid data you care to share? As for the EPS and accounting, if there is a significant change to the business model guidance would change and the determining factor in share price would be how that change effected the overall net worth of SDRL. If company X sells a business unit or spins off a portion of its company is company X still expected to earn the same EPS? Unlikely, but it's what they do with accounting to keep share holder whole that makes all the difference. The track record says they will indeed keep the share holder whole. I purchased additional shares under 33 on Monday and am a long term holder. At 10% div and a stable backlog and potential growth I see this as a solid play in the energy space.
    Mar 19, 2014. 10:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Neglected The Sign: Don't Feed The Bears! [View article]
    Thanks Steve, I think you may be correct as it bounced 3% off its low in after hours. I bought in fairly heavily back in June, July and August and sold about a third of my shares the third time it hit 2.75 as that seemed to be the short term ceiling, now I'm playing with house money on my shares. Would put new cash to work at about 2.25 but I don't see it gapping that low. Seems range bound at the 2.45 - 2.50 level as that's where it gained support in after hours.
    Feb 2, 2014. 08:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Neglected The Sign: Don't Feed The Bears! [View article]
    Is ther any technical data as to a support level on Monday? I'm going to increase my speculative position in this company but as its such a low dollar pps it would be nice to understand how low it can go on Monday. If the market is in sell off mode it could sink harder than anticipated. Anyone a technician?
    Feb 2, 2014. 06:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Near-Term Bullish Call For Capstone Mining: $4 By Summer 2014 [View article]
    So Capstone is just coming off its 52 week high, most of the price action has been post acquisition or on the acquisition news. It's trending south now so why not wait till just prior to the release of the testing results. Seems odd to purchase now with current action.
    Great article, well thought out thesis, just seems we might be able to wait out another 10% down prior to buying in.
    Jan 10, 2014. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    Hope your Holidays are going well.
    I'm reluctantly in your camp on this one but feel a safer more profitable option may be the March 525 strike. I think it bounces from there back up to the 550 -575 range begining of April. New releases are scheduled for May so the stock should run up on some leaked news late March early April.

    IBeacon is starting to make an impact and the china mobile deal will keep air under the wings for the next six to eight weeks.

    Remember, Cook has a portion of his salary based on the stock price and it's human nature to want to make money (you need look no further than the timing of your appl short articles to know this is true).

    I would normally double down or raise my call spread targets based on your articles but as someone pointed out earlier, eventually, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    I'll buy some insurance as I'm unwilling to pay the tax man to sell even a single share at this point.
    Dec 30, 2013. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment