Abe Mishima

13 Comments

    • When and Where to Go in China [view article]
      I'll step into FXI when FXP goes over 100. Neither FXI or FXP holds its gains very long, but since FXP is a bit dicier, getting in FXI when FXP is bumping the top of its channel is the prudent thing to do. Why am I using a reverse ETF instead of looking at the core ETF? Because I trust neither, and see FXP as the tail that wags the dog. Heavy volume in that ETF invariably affects FXI. Funny how activities we engage in here in the US affect an index based on Chinese stocks. I am aware of the adr's traded on US exchanges, but they represent only a fraction of the shares in each of the corresponding PRC companies. Again, the tail wags the dog here too. Talk about magnification! Good luck to any investors in these etf's or adr's. You have a tiger by the tail. Jun 13 01:22 PM
    • What's Book Value Worth for Homebuilders? [view article]
      P/B is meaningless. Cash flow is far more important. The burn rate and projected time to reverse negative net income are the critical numbers to get an estimate on. The longer the recovery takes, the more likely we are to see credit downgrades and possible bankruptcy. In BK, the common shareholder would probably get nothing. If just one of the major homebuilders has to file for BK, it will take all homebuilders down. Even if no builder goes belly up, the time to straighten out the balance sheet keeps growing longer and longer. Thus a 2:1 to 4:1 drop in the stock price relative to the 52-week high is not only a reality, but a deserved decline in the pps of these stocks. Jun 11 12:28 PM
    • Homebuilder Troubles, Large and Small [Housing Tracker] [view article]
      Judy, judy, judy ... This could be the greatest screwball period of investing I have ever witnessed. Every homebuilder that I track is losing money. Some are near their 52-week lows again, and one just broke through the ignominious level today, agan, and with a vengeance. CTX is the unlucky victim. I have to admit I am long this turkey now. Down about 18 cents. Ever try to catch a falling chimney? Jun 06 04:04 PM
    • Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings [view article]
      Even if TSL beats the whisper number by a nickel, the stock could still fall. One could argue this on technical grounds, such as Max Pain = $40 or the share price being at the top of its channel. But I won't use those herrings. I worry about the technology that TSL brings to the table. Nothing to distinguish it from half a dozen other companies. Then what makes this company so valuable in the eyes of investors? Low cost! How long will it be able to maintain this advantage is the $64 question. Maybe they are lucky in terms of management or workers. However, do they have the capital to compete with STP (the king of Chinese solar companies) or LDK (the bulldog)? Can't say. Jun 06 04:34 AM
    • Desperate Homebuilders Bringing Back Bubble-Era Financing - Housing Tracker [view article]
      Of particular note is the reference to hedge fund investing in firms with "valuable" real property. There is a hidden market out there, which only the very rich seem to have insight about. Since they drive the very high end of the real estate market, it is in their best interest to keep top end homes at $10 Million and above. Based on simple economics, aka the trickle down theory, this requires stabilizing the $1 Million end of the market as well. And, of course, the $500,000 market too. If the bubble is tamped down but not burst, the housing sector will recover in a year or two. That's where the big bets are lining up. If you bought any homebuilder at their 52-week low, the sentiment is that your money has or will double (in the near future). You cannot deny that people like homes. Take note, but buyer beware. Jun 03 08:26 AM
    • Pfizer’s Celebrex: Mass Tort Madness [view article]
      One man's drug miracle is another man's poison. Sad to say that the drug companies and the FDA do not do enough research into the latter, rare but tragic consequences. Physicians are too busy to look for warning signs, and insurance companies discourage testing that would predict future problems. I can't offer any solutions to patients on new drugs. They are always riskier than older drugs, so you need to take them for only a short period of time. This is the sad fact about science. There are no instant, foolproof miracles. We may be at the boundary of human knowledge where age old medical problems may never find a safe cure. May 30 03:12 PM
    • Chantix Side-Effects May Halt Rare Pfizer Success Story [view article]
      As a scientist, I offer two possible theories. One is that cigarettes are an anti-psychedelic, i.e., they suppress otherwise natural tendencies in some people to hallucinate. When such people stop smoking, they hallucinate. Theory two posits that Chantix can act as a psychedelic, in certain individuals, whether they smoke or not. I will ask my physician to prescribe the drug, and if it does give me strange dreams, I will order a multi-year supply, in case they ban the drug. I am not a smoker (but for the sake of obtaining the medication, I will buy a pack of cigarettes and attempt to smoke in the doctor's office.) May 28 03:14 PM
    • Top 10 Stocks Trading Below Net Current Asset Value [view article]
      Beware the heavily shorted stock, and the above list is loaded with these wounded birds. USU's life and death hang on the ACP, a breakthrough method of uranium enrichment. Proven in the lab, it remains to be seen if it will function without cost distractions on a production basis. The slightest hint of uncertainty will cause the stock to tumble below $4. Promising developments or just plain optimism can vault the stock into the high 5's and above. We won't know for sure until 2009/2010. There is also a decision by the Supreme court on anti-dumping that could greatly affect USEC's fate. Is enriched uranium a finished product or a raw material? The court is very patriotic. They will decide on the formet, irrespective of legal merit, and save USEC. Disclosure: I hold a small interest in the company, but am aware of its vulnerability to shorting and bad news. Apr 28 12:20 PM
    • A $1Million Wager for Gold Bears [view article]
      His bet is written like an options contract, namely a call. He has nearly 3 years to exercise it. So, I would not bet against him. As long as the central banks do not unload the asset, and no new major disoveries are made, he is safe. We will probably experience hyperinflation, once the world realizes how worthless American currency is. Apr 04 05:25 PM
    • Charlie Maxwell: Oil Scarcity to Cause Political Breakdown, Financial Crisis [view article]
      The link got truncated. Sorry. You can visit the CGMFX message board on Yahoo and search for Maxwell in a day or so. Feb 09 07:52 PM
    • Charlie Maxwell: Oil Scarcity to Cause Political Breakdown, Financial Crisis [view article]
      Here is one link:

      messages.finance.yahoo...

      The reason the crisis will not be as severe as predicted is simple. Human beings adjust. We are a very adaptable race, when push comes to shove. Whether we buy fuel sipping cars or change over all lighting to LEDs, we will survive.       Feb 09 07:49 PM
    • Bulls Cling to Misguided Hopes [view article]
      This is a brilliant article. Nobody wants to walk away from a house. But the banks and lending institutions can be intractable. In the showdown, nobody wins. Both sides lose big. Back in the days when the Mafia loaned people money, how many bad debts do you think there were? Far fewer than what we are seeing now. It was the force of persuasion. Anyway, there's not much we can do unless mortgage rates are reduced per government edict. That's not going to happen in a capitalist society. The situation is hopeless, and like you said, there is not much we can do about it. This is an extension of Gresham's law, except for houses. Bad houses drive down good ones. Feb 08 10:55 PM
    • The Fed Cannot Resolve a Solvency Crisis [view article]
      Liquidity, insolvency? It's all tied together. Banks are having this problem because there is so little liquidity in a CDO portfolio, that they have to grovel to sell them at 20 to 30 cents on the dollar. Even if 95% of the portfolio is non-delinquent. And why do they have to sell at these ridiculous prices? To meet solvency requirements. I think the regulators have to give the banks a break for the moment. As long as the cash flow is there, waive the asset valuation requirement. Back during the Chrysler bailout, the government guaranteed their loans. The government can do something similar here. Instead of 20 cents on the dollar, the government backs the CDO to 50 cents on the dollar. I know, I know, you ask. How does the government get back its money when a bank must liquidate a CDO? Appoint a government agency to service the various mortgages, that's how. This agency will sell back the mortgages to the financial sector when times are better. The homes that must be foreclosed can be sold to charitable organizations at 60 cents on the dollar. Do gooders can fix the properties and resell them. Feb 08 10:39 PM
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