Abe Mishima's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/149652/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/161408-sunpower-s-rose-how-important-is-high-efficiency-in-pv?source=feed#comment-676132 676132 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 13:57:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154195-china-s-new-purchasing-powerhouse-women?source=feed#comment-658739 658739 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:11:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155257-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-638406 638406 Thu, 20 Aug 2009 13:46:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150844-vix-futures-a-rare-situation?source=feed#comment-600401 600401
My money bags are still sitting in the locker. SPWRA is getting away from me AH. Drats! Tomorrow, the high flyers in the Chinese ADR/ADP market should retrace. FUQI, TSL, BIDU. Good. The Q's need a breather. Fourteen straight up days. Mad Hedge, what are you looking to buy?]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:37:44 -0400
My money bags are still sitting in the locker. SPWRA is getting away from me AH. Drats! Tomorrow, the high flyers in the Chinese ADR/ADP market should retrace. FUQI, TSL, BIDU. Good. The Q's need a breather. Fourteen straight up days. Mad Hedge, what are you looking to buy?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/28777?source=feed#comment-600390 600390 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:24:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150568-today-in-commodities-the-commodity-train-is-leaving-the-station?source=feed#comment-600378 600378
Matt and others: End users of natural gas have been burned before. First, homeowners who switched to NG during the oil embargo, found themselves paying more for energy when heating oil prices fell. Electric companies are aware of the old swicheroo effect as well. Now the industry is trying to sucker in users with stories of massive new NG finds. Plentiful energy for 100 years. Be patriotic, buy natural gas! Yada, yada. We need a change of tack. Index your product to oil and coal, i.e., by BTU. Sign 10 year contracts, both assuring supply and competitive pricing. This is why people hate commodities. Buyers always have the feeling of being ripped off by the suppliers.]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:17:27 -0400
Matt and others: End users of natural gas have been burned before. First, homeowners who switched to NG during the oil embargo, found themselves paying more for energy when heating oil prices fell. Electric companies are aware of the old swicheroo effect as well. Now the industry is trying to sucker in users with stories of massive new NG finds. Plentiful energy for 100 years. Be patriotic, buy natural gas! Yada, yada. We need a change of tack. Index your product to oil and coal, i.e., by BTU. Sign 10 year contracts, both assuring supply and competitive pricing. This is why people hate commodities. Buyers always have the feeling of being ripped off by the suppliers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149920-house-prices-two-views?source=feed#comment-600357 600357
1. You stated that rental rates reflect the true value of a property. B.S. Rents only apply to the rental market. Not all property is up for rent. Rents may reflect the utility value of a home, but not its desirability to a willing buyer.

2. People do not necessarily buy into your theory that property is primarily an "investment." It is not a stock. It is not a bond. I'd agree with your implicit assumption that houses are an impulse or emotional buy. The same, possibly, as fashion, jewelry, or art. People (hopefully) enjoy their homes. They may buy it as a status symbol. Or, for privacy. The reason does not matter, and it certainly does not have to be rational. If I choose to live on a Malibu or Diamond Head oceanfront property, what concern is it of yours? For the use and/or pleasure, the expense is worth it. Thirty years from now, when I pass away, I won't be worrying about the ten million I spent on a prime property. I won't say to myself -- I should have listened to OP and lived in a dump. For what? Don't live your life as a penny-pinching millionaire. If you have relatives who need your money, tell them to earn it, the hard way. Like I did.

3. The link you posted about 1 in 9 homes being vacant is misleading. "This unprecedented glut of vacant homes — one in nine homes across the USA, according to the Census Bureau — will change the real estate landscape for years." Nowhere in the article do you see this statement qualified. All homes or homes for sale? It makes a big difference.

4. The housing depression will end. Too bad, I know you don't want to hear the news.

finance.yahoo.com/news...=

It's a free country, and you're entitled to be anti-real estate. But don't deny the rest of us the right to be enamored of luxury homes, prime office buildings, and oceanfront property. I have had more fun in beautiful surroundings than I ever had in holding stock and option investments. Because, as long as you can make money, you can spend it. Both Bill Gates and Warren Buffett do not live in dumps. Why should they?]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 21:50:41 -0400
1. You stated that rental rates reflect the true value of a property. B.S. Rents only apply to the rental market. Not all property is up for rent. Rents may reflect the utility value of a home, but not its desirability to a willing buyer.

2. People do not necessarily buy into your theory that property is primarily an "investment." It is not a stock. It is not a bond. I'd agree with your implicit assumption that houses are an impulse or emotional buy. The same, possibly, as fashion, jewelry, or art. People (hopefully) enjoy their homes. They may buy it as a status symbol. Or, for privacy. The reason does not matter, and it certainly does not have to be rational. If I choose to live on a Malibu or Diamond Head oceanfront property, what concern is it of yours? For the use and/or pleasure, the expense is worth it. Thirty years from now, when I pass away, I won't be worrying about the ten million I spent on a prime property. I won't say to myself -- I should have listened to OP and lived in a dump. For what? Don't live your life as a penny-pinching millionaire. If you have relatives who need your money, tell them to earn it, the hard way. Like I did.

3. The link you posted about 1 in 9 homes being vacant is misleading. "This unprecedented glut of vacant homes — one in nine homes across the USA, according to the Census Bureau — will change the real estate landscape for years." Nowhere in the article do you see this statement qualified. All homes or homes for sale? It makes a big difference.

4. The housing depression will end. Too bad, I know you don't want to hear the news.

finance.yahoo.com/news...=

It's a free country, and you're entitled to be anti-real estate. But don't deny the rest of us the right to be enamored of luxury homes, prime office buildings, and oceanfront property. I have had more fun in beautiful surroundings than I ever had in holding stock and option investments. Because, as long as you can make money, you can spend it. Both Bill Gates and Warren Buffett do not live in dumps. Why should they?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149920-house-prices-two-views?source=feed#comment-596044 596044
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3...

This is a great time to be a buyer, if you know the local market, and are a shrewd bargainer. If you are a seller, then you need to hold out if you think you can beat the odds (carrying costs vs. price appreciation). It takes guts of steel or a suicidal complex if housing prices are still eroding where you live. Big game. Real estate poker!]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 23:57:03 -0400
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3...

This is a great time to be a buyer, if you know the local market, and are a shrewd bargainer. If you are a seller, then you need to hold out if you think you can beat the odds (carrying costs vs. price appreciation). It takes guts of steel or a suicidal complex if housing prices are still eroding where you live. Big game. Real estate poker!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149767-china-s-stimulus-takes-a-page-out-of-greenspan-s-book?source=feed#comment-595699 595699 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 18:27:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149767-china-s-stimulus-takes-a-page-out-of-greenspan-s-book?source=feed#comment-595529 595529 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:46:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149849-china-a-look-at-the-real-estate-picture?source=feed#comment-595480 595480 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 15:15:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146355-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-572320 572320 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:35:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129221-the-whitney-ratings?source=feed#comment-572306 572306
WFC est. 0.06 actual 0.56
BAC est. 0.04 actual 0.44
C est -1.14 actual -0.18
COF est -0.02 actual -0.45

Figures are from marketwatch.com. A dart-throwing monkey could make more accurate predictions.]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:23:31 -0400
WFC est. 0.06 actual 0.56
BAC est. 0.04 actual 0.44
C est -1.14 actual -0.18
COF est -0.02 actual -0.45

Figures are from marketwatch.com. A dart-throwing monkey could make more accurate predictions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146823-how-aig-fp-brought-down-the-world?source=feed#comment-572219 572219 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:47:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145789-california-s-default-is-certain?source=feed#comment-566521 566521 Mon, 29 Jun 2009 02:30:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/145307-modeling-select-s-p-500-share-prices?source=feed#comment-562739 562739
www.comerica.com/Comer...

It looks like t (transportation price inflation) is the best predictor for the '08 - '09 crash. Also, there are probably periods where the derivative of an index or index difference would have been the best input to the curve fits. Lastly, don't ever use the words "trial and error" in any presentation. The operative word is "optimization". LOL.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:40:36 -0400
www.comerica.com/Comer...

It looks like t (transportation price inflation) is the best predictor for the '08 - '09 crash. Also, there are probably periods where the derivative of an index or index difference would have been the best input to the curve fits. Lastly, don't ever use the words "trial and error" in any presentation. The operative word is "optimization". LOL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144193-5-reasons-to-avoid-the-gold-rush?source=feed#comment-556474 556474
One of the posters tried to make an analogy between houses and gold. He failed to allocate the costs properly. If you had X amount of dollars to invest in gold or real property (say you could buy it outright), then real property can either serve as a home or a rental. Subtract off that savings, after property taxes, insurance and maintenance. Guess who wins? Real property. OK, you don't always win with real property, because if you buy any asset, gold, houses, paintings or whatever, at the wrong time, you can lose a fortune. To me, buying gold at $1000/oz, when I could buy it at $810/oz at some future point, is the danger of investing in gold. No one ever bothers explaining this to newbie investors. That is the rub, bubba. You call that a safe asset? LOL.]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 17:20:14 -0400
One of the posters tried to make an analogy between houses and gold. He failed to allocate the costs properly. If you had X amount of dollars to invest in gold or real property (say you could buy it outright), then real property can either serve as a home or a rental. Subtract off that savings, after property taxes, insurance and maintenance. Guess who wins? Real property. OK, you don't always win with real property, because if you buy any asset, gold, houses, paintings or whatever, at the wrong time, you can lose a fortune. To me, buying gold at $1000/oz, when I could buy it at $810/oz at some future point, is the danger of investing in gold. No one ever bothers explaining this to newbie investors. That is the rub, bubba. You call that a safe asset? LOL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144129-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-554459 554459
Anyway, not to sound overly moral, I have skin in the UNG game, not because I believe that NG prices will go up, but because I sense that the price of UNG is being actively manipulated by hedge funds, and I feel I can piggyback on their moves. Known as trading what I see. The smartest members on Yahoo message boards have been trying to figure out the NG market for weeks. There is nothing divine or esoteric about natural gas. It is a commoditiy and as such it is and always will be subject to manipulation. UNG just throws in rollovers, swaps, and exchange traded volatility into the equation. Everyone and his uncle is in on the action.]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 17:11:25 -0400
Anyway, not to sound overly moral, I have skin in the UNG game, not because I believe that NG prices will go up, but because I sense that the price of UNG is being actively manipulated by hedge funds, and I feel I can piggyback on their moves. Known as trading what I see. The smartest members on Yahoo message boards have been trying to figure out the NG market for weeks. There is nothing divine or esoteric about natural gas. It is a commoditiy and as such it is and always will be subject to manipulation. UNG just throws in rollovers, swaps, and exchange traded volatility into the equation. Everyone and his uncle is in on the action.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141017-gm-now-means-general-malaise?source=feed#comment-532044 532044 Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:32:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137672-why-i-m-replacing-lennar-for-meritage-home?source=feed#comment-503847 503847 Thu, 14 May 2009 12:41:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134643-bear-market-rally-getting-some-leadership?source=feed#comment-485938 485938 Fri, 01 May 2009 14:30:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131236-china-concerns-crashing-currencies-and-the-future-of-gold-purchases?source=feed#comment-465411 465411 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 13:24:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129221-the-whitney-ratings?source=feed#comment-450097 450097 Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:06:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128840-china-s-solar-stock-rally-avoid-being-burned?source=feed#comment-448720 448720 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 22:58:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127649-why-i-m-exiting-financials?source=feed#comment-438744 438744 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:50:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127051-how-we-could-let-aig-fail-sort-of?source=feed#comment-433930 433930 Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:31:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124362-what-s-a-dollar-worth-more-than-citi?source=feed#comment-414792 414792 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 15:30:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123366-paperwork-the-added-cost-of-solar-installation?source=feed#comment-409484 409484 Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:53:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118001-going-green-not-as-easy-as-it-seems?source=feed#comment-373744 373744 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 16:04:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106732-three-solar-picks-that-should-thrive-even-with-reduced-subsidies?source=feed#comment-310868 310868 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:40:52 -0500