OKMONEY

Why the Spike in Sirius XM's Short Interest?

Will someone please ask president Obama to order Sirius radios with a 3 year subscription for the 17,000+ vehicles he is proposing that the U.S. Government buy. Isn't that what "stimulus" is all about?

Attention SEC: Sirius Trading Issues

So, Goldman allows the naked short sellers direct access to the market through their "state of the art" online trading program allowing Goldman to make more money, quicker, resulting in the retail trader getting F****d, and it's the online trading program's fault. My, oh my; what ingenious logic. Along the same lines maybe we should give a pistol and a knife to every convict upon their release from prison!

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

sl62:

Value your opinion, but, all that is lost in bankruptcy ( a successful Ch 11 reorganization) is debt and the current shareholders. This ain't no chess game or countermove "it's the real thing, baby". This is a loser dies game.


On Feb 10 06:33 PM sl62 wrote:

> Well, it wasn't CHTR last week, but now it is! SP just tok the next
> step down...where you go when the NY Times reports you are talking
> to BK attorneys.
>
> The backside of this whole thing is since Mel and Charlie are rivals,
> would Mel actually do this just to stick it to him? I still just
> can't see it given the risks at losing subs, losing their sports
> contracts, losing way too much. This has got to be a counter move
> and nothing more...

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

between the hedges:
Been in the bankruptcy business for 32 years. Liquidation or reorganization both result in equity holders being wiped out. SIRI is not a liquidation candidate. Senior debt (bondholders) will become the shareholders in a reorganization.


On Feb 10 05:45 PM between the hedges wrote:

> My understanding is that there is a clear difference between a filing
> for liquidation - where the company closes shop and folds - and a
> reorganization - where debt is reorganized. My understanding is
> that in a reorganization, the shareholders keep their shares and
> the company gets to redo its debt under more favorable terms. I
> think that this is a ploy. Be careful shareholders or you will end
> up selling cheap, similar to the Wachovia Wells Fargo scenario when
> Wachovia went cheap and people panicked out. Hang tight and ride
> it out. Like I say, the share prices are already at bankrupcy levels.

Does Ergen Have Enough Leverage to Play Out His Sirius Hand?

Dayworker:

You hit the proverbial nail on the head. You're analysis is 110% on the money.


On Feb 10 02:24 PM dayworker wrote:

> At this low PS it's either a takeover or BK. I've said that all along.

>
> With the income stream it's a perfect takeover, unless management
> wants
> to keep it for themselves and goes BK. That's why who ever drove
> the
> PS down did it knowing in the future it would be to their advantage.
> It
> wasn't just the shorts trying to turn a profit, there were plans
> in the works
> by different players to get SIRIUS. With $2.7 bil income stream it's
> a gold
> mine. All they have to do is get rid of the shareholders and debt
> by BK
> or low ball buyout and their home free. Their not playing this for
> shareholder interest. They just use stock investors for the capital
> they
> need and jettison them when they can get away with it.

Sirius XM Gets Some Breathing Room from Delisting Freeze

"Bankruptcy out of the question"

What other financing is possibly and realistically available to SIRI other than DIP financing? TARP?


On Jan 28 10:06 AM rtatp31 wrote:

> With the potential for delisting way out to 2010 we should be in
> good shape once we are able to get all the debt under control/refinanced
> plus a positve cash flow should drive the stcok up well above a buck-with
> no need for a reverse split-this is really great news. Unless of
> course they want it over five to get higher instituion intrest. Either
> way looks like bankruptcy is out of the question--really really great
> news

Sirius XM Gets Some Breathing Room from Delisting Freeze

Who'd have thought there's safety staying at $.12? Next to impossible to short a $.12 stock. It's analogous to: if you never succeed, you can't fail. The buzzards are already circling.


On Jan 28 09:28 AM Sirius sucks wrote:

> If Sirius does a reverse split, I bet a hundred million dollars the
> shorts will push the stock back below a dollar in less than 6 months.

8 Ways to Make Sirius Better

One of the best articles I have read on Sirius in a long time. Mr Matthews truly has a grasp on this business. Hope SIRI can survive to implement his ideas. You'd think SIRI management had already come to the same conclusions; obviously not. I can't help thinking why SIRI managment doesn't see what Mr. Matthews sees. When you think of it some of his ideas just would seem to naturally flow if you were in the business. Makes me wonder what's going on behind all the BS mgmt puts out; surely it can't be what it seems: 100% pure, unadulterated ignorance.

Fed Up with Sirius' Childish Customers

??????? The overdraft fees were like manna from heaven to his banker. Hard to imagine $1m in overdrafts with instant internet access to your account. Fits the blog. Child can't handle money; child can't handle change; child can't handle criticism. You got it - childish. Sirius is a great product, but so was Equal. Great products can make a great business; bad business ruins great products. Alas, poor Yorick [SIRI] I knew him when.... his pps was $3.60.


On Jan 12 08:38 AM ????????? wrote:

> not sure if there's anything more childish than bragging that your
> business deals in the millions. you must have some insecurities
> to mention that insignificant detail. sirius customers have every
> right to threaten the company with action if changes are made that
> they don't like. your argument that sirius customers should not
> complain because sirius is such a great product is in your own words,
> "childish."

Circuit City's Potential Buyers Offer Hope for Sirius Investors

sl62; I've been long SIRI for a long, long, probably too long of a time. I'd be embarrassed to tell you my average basis. Sirius won the battle, but NAB won the war. Here's what worries me: Sirius said in the annual shareholders meeting PPT it is looking for serious private investment; I read between the lines they're looking to go private. A secondary won't bring the money they need for debt service, let alone debt retirement. Automobile sales are not going to pick back up again. Sirius is never going to get the subscribers they need as a result when added to the basic contraction in the economy. Let's face it Sirius is a luxury item and will be real easy to cut out of any household budget. I don't like companies with a lot of debt, especially companies whose assets are hard to value with a short term debt that very well could render them technically insolvent. How do you value subscriptions that can be terminated, and are being terminated, in a New York minute. How do you value the talent, like Howard Stern; he could turn to coal in a Christmas stocking in a New York second. I know the figures Sirius puts on the balance sheets for these assets, but there's no tried and true way to determine their valuation methodology. Yes there are some analogies like cable TV, but I think our world of "Happy Motoring" is contracting or even dying as opposed to a growth market in TV. The spread between treasuries, CD's and corporate bonds tells me there's little confidence in the future of American business. Mel might get financing but it'll be a bone crusher like the deal ETFC made with the devil, Citadel, in November, 2007: 12.5 % springing lien notes and 20% equity for a song and a dance. Sirius is playing the business equivalent of that popular game we used to play in the infantry: loser dies; winner gets to fight another day and take a chance on being the loser. I know it's a dark thought, but Sirius is looking into a very dark abyss. Barring the president elect telling the American people to subscribe, or Warren Buffett taking a big equity position Sirius's hand may be forced into the world of Chapter 11 financing. There's PR and stigma to consider, but as long a subscribers get their favorite line up when they turn the radio on it won't matter. Look what Chapter 11 financing has done for the airlines. Too many people think the BOD has a fiduciary duty to the shareholders; quite the contrary; the fiduciary duty is to the corporation. At all costs the business of Sirius will be saved and, of course, at the expense of the shareholders. As far as GS goes don't you think they shorted SIRI all the way down? What about the new competition, RaySat and AT&T. Like I said at the get go; Sirius won the battle but lost the war.

Circuit City's Potential Buyers Offer Hope for Sirius Investors

sl62: My apologies if I offended you. You are also not the first to note my sometime perverse sense of humor. As an olive branch here's a little Chapter 11 101 [I've been doing this for 32 years now]:
Creditors are divided into classes. For example, secured, priority, unsecured and equity holders. Most often a Chapter 11 debtor is tremendously handicapped by its security agreements, mortgages, lock box requirements and various other forms of securitization of its assets such that secured creditors run the show in a Chapter 11. The very first hurdle is the use of "cash collateral". It's hard to think of a business entity that has not mortgaged its accounts receivable and inventory; that's "cash collateral" when the inventory is sold or the account receivable is factored. The Debtor-In-Possession cannot use cash collateral without permission from the creditor secured by the accounts receivable, inventory or other "cash collateral" items. If that creditor refuses to grant permission it's a trip to the courthouse. I don't know the specifics in Circuit City's case, but, clearly the creditors secured by items that can be turned into cash collateral agreed,but you can make book on the stranglehold provisions in the agreed order allowing Circuit City to use cash collateral. In essence the cash collateral creditors want to be made as whole as can be and only give up enough cash to keep operations generating their cash. Creditors secured by fixtures, real estate and other personalty want a section 363 sale of CC's assets [a sale free and clear of any liens or other encumbrances which will attach to the proceeds upon sale], or, a conversion to chapter 7, liquidation. Senior unsecured debt, bondholders usually end up as the only shareholders if a Plan is confirmed. Unsecured creditors, vendors, services, independent contractors, etc are usually SOL. Priority creditors, taxes, employee contribution plans, wages, rents, get paid before senior debt and unsecured creditors. You can bet there have been a few plans thrown around in CC's case but you've got to watch what you say and to whom because the Disclosure Statement has yet to be filed [yes, there's a case number; has been since the moment it was filed]. The disclosure Statement has been likened to a prospectus. The "Absolute Priority" rule says a Plan cannot be confirmed unless all prior superior classes of creditors have approved the Plan by a majority vote. So, the unsecured creditors cannot get a Plan approved unless the bondholders also approved the Plan. It gets a little sticky here because the absolute priority rule only applies to an "impaired" class of creditors, i.e. they'd be in a lesser economic position than they were before the 11 was filed. A court can "cram down" a plan even if an impaired class votes against the proposed Plan if it's in the best interests of all creditors; rarely happens. In CC's situation I think they're just running the clock selling all the inventory they can and will eventually end up being converted to a chapter 7. Quite frankly, from a purely economic perspective Sirius is an ideal chapter 11 candidate with a high potential for a confirmed Plan: Secured creditors stay in place, being secured by the subscription revenue stream; bondholders become stockholders; unsecureds go fly a kite. Mel is either a genius or is replaced, makes no difference because a year after emerging as a reorganized entity Sirius gets recapitalized by floating a new common stock issue. Economy might be good by then; a successful secondary, really an IPO, would put the old bondholders, now shareholders on easy street. How's that for financing the debt that comes due in February.

Circuit City's Potential Buyers Offer Hope for Sirius Investors

sl62: When you get a chance read 11 U.S.C. sections 1101-1141. Pay special attention to section 1129(b), commonly called the "cram down" provision. While you're at it read up on the "absolute priority" rule. As you probably don't know bankruptcy is not a high school subject. Why do people give legal opinions about something they know nothing about and are not even close to qualified to give an opinion. sl62, do you give medical advice too?

Sirius XM: An Equity Adrift

Mr. Savery:

You forgot the obvious: Sirius won the battle but lost the war. Just what shareholders need, a phyric victory.

Leave Sirius Alone!

I'm have been long SIrius for quite some time now because of the fundamental idea, i.e. essentially a monopoly; same place cable TV was 25 yrs. ago; a possible 10 banger. Didn't have sat rad and had no intention of getting it; I'm cheap. I don't pay for freebies.Rented a car on a trip to NY that had Sirius; my first experience; it sells itself once you see it in operation. Sirius/XM needs more and better marketing. It's almost like Lay's potatoe chips: " you can't just eat one". I don't see any TV commercials for Sirius; sure don't hear any on AM or FM radio; only see ads on the net. If folks don't know about it, they won't buy it. Get the word out Sirius/XM. You gotta spend money to make money.

Sirius / SM Merger Finally Approved - And It Only Took 493 Days!

163888; FREEP & COS1000: Thank you for your insight. 163888 I like your take on the numbers; I will integrate them in my DD to see if a Fibonacci convergence occurs. Freep, bet you always make money in the market; your insight is worthy of Warren Buffett. COS1000, I have been long, maybe too long, in SIRI. Sure hope SIRI doesn't turn into another ETFC. "The best laid plans of mice and..." ; you know the rest. Don't you think that NAB is forum shopping right now trying to think of a United States District judge who might be favorable to issue a TRO next week? As the clock runs so too does the money flow, or should I say bleed. All you gotta do is run the clock and NAB know it. Luckily we have an independent federal judiciary. We all clearly have a core position that we're not going to give up, but SIRI might be good for some trading opportunities in the next few months.