Bruce Merrifield

Today's Market Performance

Excellent compilation of data! You paint a much more accurate picture of the real U.S. economy than the media mis-reports. Current jobs data are consistent with about a 2.0% GDP for the second quarter and the first quarter GDP will pobably be bumped up again. (Aftertax corporate profits of 5.6% in the first quarter were the highest ever as is cash in corporate treasuries). Thanks for the real data.,

Bruce

Bill Gross: U.S. Already in Recession

Wishful thinking won't make it happen....

Jobless Claims Not in Recession Territory Yet

The U.S. has about 30 million incorporated businesses (up from 4.6 million in 1982) of which about 98% have less than 100 employees. The payroll data come from large companies which now account for only about 1/3rd of the U.S. GDP. Small business account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. But this is where the new jobs, new innovations and new household wealth are generated ($59 trillion up from $3 trillion in 1982, and up another $3 trillion in 2007) Since 1982, the U.S generated about 90 million new jobs, most of them in these small businesses, while losing about 40 million in downsizing and restructuring a whole bunch of famous corporate names. Our Labor Department data are no longer accurate, and the Europeans call this entrepreneurial revolution the "American Miracle."

International Revenue Story Not Played Out Yet

Thanks foe providing real data...!

Bruce

Earnings Season So Far: 65% Beat Rate

Your contributions always present important and useful content...quite in contrast to so many of the Alpha gloom and doom comments which often exaggerate trivial points with distorted reasoning. Many thanks!

Bruce

Best of Times, Worst of Times

Hi Folks, here is a little more perspective: In 1982, the U.S. had 4.6 million incorporated businesses....now we have about 30 million, of which about 98% have fewer than 100 employees, but account for a rising two thirds of the U.S. GDP. Big companies now account for a declining one third of the GDP, but "Payroll Data" come mostly from big companies, comprising about 1% of the total. Payroll Data are misleading. Most of the jobs are created by small businesses, of which some 500,000 to 800,000 new ones incorporate every year (about 25 million since 1982) Europeans call this the "American Miracle."

In 1982, the U.S. had about 100 million jobs...now we have about 150 million jobs...averaging about 2 million per year, and we are on track to generate at least that many again this year. The loss of
4,000 jobs last month in big companies? Where is the perspective?

Bruce

Greenspan Seemingly Suffers From Acute Amnesia

I'm afraid that history may not be too kind to Alan...two recessions and multiple "down turns" on his watch. Monetary intervention (raising interest rates and shutting down the money supply) is a crude weapon which always overshoots both ways and is plagued by the fact that there is a one year lag going and coming.

Bruce

Why The Surprise Over The Jobs Number?

Hi Herb, just to expand your perspective a little...in 1982 the U.S. had 100 million jobs. Now there are 150 million jobs..average 2 million(net) new jobs per year. And we are on track to add at least that many this year. But a loss of 4 thousand jobs in one month is catastrophic, right? Oddly, in spite of this loss the unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%
Bruce

Major Policy Shift -- Or Politics As Usual?

Hi Barry, Your own political persuasion is certainly apparent, in your apparent dismay that you and some of your Greek Chorus have failed to panic a very strong U.S. economy into a tailspin, by frantically overstating the housing and sub-prime issues. Relax a bit...it won't work, and you destroy your own credibility, and the real contributions that you have the competence to make.

Still Too Early To Buy Stocks Battered By Credit Woes

Wake up Laura, the selloff was contrived

Joe

The Energy CPI and Market Trends: What's the Connection?

YES...!

Nonfarm Payrolls Trending Up or Down Depending Who You Ask

Our BLS (and DOC) data are parthetically out of touch with the real U.S. economy.

In 1982, the U.S. had 100 million jobs. Now we have 150 million jobs, an annual increase of about 2 million per year (166,000 per month on average), over this 25 year period. Also, in 1982 we had 4.6 incorporated businesses. Now we have about 30 million, and every year we generate 500,000 to 800,000 new ones. Europeans call this "The American Miracle"....it is unique in history.

Moreover, over 95% of our 30 million incorporated businesses have less than 100 employees, but these businesses now account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. Only about 5% of those small businesses are publicly traded, so are largely invisible. Unfortunately, our BLS Payroll data mostly come from about 1500 publicly traded large businsses. (Big businesses now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP). Asa result, most of the innovation, new jobs and new wealth are being created by new businesses (this is our competitive advantage in a hyper competitive global marketplace).

In 1982, household American wealth was about $3 trillion. Now it is $56 trillion (up 95%), and is rising another $3 trillion every year. Household savings when properly calculated to include all investments in IRA's 401K's. money market funds, home equity etc., are $5.3 trillion, instead of zero as currently reported.

It would be nice if our Government metrics could one day catch up with the historically unprecedented real facts, in this most remarkable period in economic history....

Bruce Merrifield

Stop the Presses: Personal Saving Rate Is Now Positive

Come on Tim, the current real U.S. savings are $5.3 trillion, when all investments are included.This is the "wealth effect" that overrides a rise in the price of gasolene and perhaps makes the current obsession with a 3% rise in inflation more or less irrelevant. "Savings Rate" data are 50 years out of date as Peter Drucker kept saying...

Bruce

Retirement: Work X+1, Draw 5%/Year

Hi Roger,

There is a war for talent emerging, and as more and more Boomers over 55 retire, the need for people with experience, sound judgment and expertise will multiply. A non-profit organization (The Center for Productive Longgevity)...CPL...ha... been formed to address this serious issue. The CEO is Bill Zinke ([e-mail]) in case you might want more information.

Bruce

Delving Deeper Into The Inflation Issue

Yes audioman....Houshold American wealth has increase 94% over the last 25 years from $3 trilliion in 1982 to $56 trillion now, and continues to rise $3 trillion every year. a couple pf percent rise in so-called inflation is not very significant....maybe irrelevant?

Bruce