Bruce Merrifield's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/14986/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/80351-today-s-market-performance?source=feed#comment-180256 180256
Bruce]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:19:52 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58143-bill-gross-u-s-already-in-recession?source=feed#comment-106482 106482 Sat, 22 Dec 2007 10:30:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58002-jobless-claims-not-in-recession-territory-yet?source=feed#comment-106376 106376 Fri, 21 Dec 2007 10:57:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51682-international-revenue-story-not-played-out-yet?source=feed#comment-100178 100178
Bruce

]]> Mon, 29 Oct 2007 10:42:18 -0400
Bruce

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50830-earnings-season-so-far-65-beat-rate?source=feed#comment-99445 99445
Bruce]]> Tue, 23 Oct 2007 10:59:22 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46705-best-of-times-worst-of-times?source=feed#comment-95554 95554
In 1982, the U.S. had about 100 million jobs...now we have about 150 million jobs...averaging about 2 million per year, and we are on track to generate at least that many again this year. The loss of
4,000 jobs last month in big companies? Where is the perspective?

Bruce]]> Sun, 09 Sep 2007 11:20:00 -0400
In 1982, the U.S. had about 100 million jobs...now we have about 150 million jobs...averaging about 2 million per year, and we are on track to generate at least that many again this year. The loss of
4,000 jobs last month in big companies? Where is the perspective?

Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46698-greenspan-seemingly-suffers-from-acute-amnesia?source=feed#comment-95553 95553
Bruce
]]> Sun, 09 Sep 2007 10:58:18 -0400
Bruce
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46691-why-the-surprise-over-the-jobs-number?source=feed#comment-95498 95498 Bruce]]> Sat, 08 Sep 2007 10:40:04 -0400 Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/46180-major-policy-shift-or-politics-as-usual?source=feed#comment-94961 94961 Sun, 02 Sep 2007 12:18:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43870-still-too-early-to-buy-stocks-battered-by-credit-woes?source=feed#comment-93176 93176
Joe]]> Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:52:06 -0400
Joe]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43522-the-energy-cpi-and-market-trends-what-s-the-connection?source=feed#comment-92888 92888 Sun, 05 Aug 2007 09:51:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43493-nonfarm-payrolls-trending-up-or-down-depending-who-you-ask?source=feed#comment-92854 92854
In 1982, the U.S. had 100 million jobs. Now we have 150 million jobs, an annual increase of about 2 million per year (166,000 per month on average), over this 25 year period. Also, in 1982 we had 4.6 incorporated businesses. Now we have about 30 million, and every year we generate 500,000 to 800,000 new ones. Europeans call this "The American Miracle"....it is unique in history.

Moreover, over 95% of our 30 million incorporated businesses have less than 100 employees, but these businesses now account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. Only about 5% of those small businesses are publicly traded, so are largely invisible. Unfortunately, our BLS Payroll data mostly come from about 1500 publicly traded large businsses. (Big businesses now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP). Asa result, most of the innovation, new jobs and new wealth are being created by new businesses (this is our competitive advantage in a hyper competitive global marketplace).

In 1982, household American wealth was about $3 trillion. Now it is $56 trillion (up 95%), and is rising another $3 trillion every year. Household savings when properly calculated to include all investments in IRA's 401K's. money market funds, home equity etc., are $5.3 trillion, instead of zero as currently reported.

It would be nice if our Government metrics could one day catch up with the historically unprecedented real facts, in this most remarkable period in economic history....

Bruce Merrifield]]> Sat, 04 Aug 2007 11:20:34 -0400
In 1982, the U.S. had 100 million jobs. Now we have 150 million jobs, an annual increase of about 2 million per year (166,000 per month on average), over this 25 year period. Also, in 1982 we had 4.6 incorporated businesses. Now we have about 30 million, and every year we generate 500,000 to 800,000 new ones. Europeans call this "The American Miracle"....it is unique in history.

Moreover, over 95% of our 30 million incorporated businesses have less than 100 employees, but these businesses now account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. Only about 5% of those small businesses are publicly traded, so are largely invisible. Unfortunately, our BLS Payroll data mostly come from about 1500 publicly traded large businsses. (Big businesses now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP). Asa result, most of the innovation, new jobs and new wealth are being created by new businesses (this is our competitive advantage in a hyper competitive global marketplace).

In 1982, household American wealth was about $3 trillion. Now it is $56 trillion (up 95%), and is rising another $3 trillion every year. Household savings when properly calculated to include all investments in IRA's 401K's. money market funds, home equity etc., are $5.3 trillion, instead of zero as currently reported.

It would be nice if our Government metrics could one day catch up with the historically unprecedented real facts, in this most remarkable period in economic history....

Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43110-stop-the-presses-personal-saving-rate-is-now-positive?source=feed#comment-92606 92606
Bruce]]> Wed, 01 Aug 2007 10:52:20 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40039-retirement-work-x-1-draw-5-year?source=feed#comment-90351 90351
There is a war for talent emerging, and as more and more Boomers over 55 retire, the need for people with experience, sound judgment and expertise will multiply. A non-profit organization (The Center for Productive Longgevity)...CPL...ha... been formed to address this serious issue. The CEO is Bill Zinke (wzinke@hrshrs.com) in case you might want more information.

Bruce]]> Wed, 04 Jul 2007 09:46:01 -0400
There is a war for talent emerging, and as more and more Boomers over 55 retire, the need for people with experience, sound judgment and expertise will multiply. A non-profit organization (The Center for Productive Longgevity)...CPL...ha... been formed to address this serious issue. The CEO is Bill Zinke (wzinke@hrshrs.com) in case you might want more information.

Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38664-delving-deeper-into-the-inflation-issue?source=feed#comment-89078 89078
Bruce]]> Tue, 19 Jun 2007 16:07:55 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/38710-analysts-surprised-by-high-rate-of-consumer-spending?source=feed#comment-89077 89077
The result of course, is that a 1% or 2% rise in so-called inflation is essentially irrelevant. It's a different picture now....

Bruce]]> Tue, 19 Jun 2007 15:59:32 -0400
The result of course, is that a 1% or 2% rise in so-called inflation is essentially irrelevant. It's a different picture now....

Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/37345-inflation-are-we-victims-of-irrational-pessimism?source=feed#comment-87753 87753
In 1980 household American wealth was $3 trillion. Now it's $56 trillion (a 94% increase) and has been rising $3 trillion each year since the recession. This new wealth far over shadows any trivial increases in "inflation" as we now mistakenly measure it. As Peter Drucker kept saying, our accounting systems are pathetically out of date....

Bruce Merrifield]]> Tue, 05 Jun 2007 11:09:00 -0400
In 1980 household American wealth was $3 trillion. Now it's $56 trillion (a 94% increase) and has been rising $3 trillion each year since the recession. This new wealth far over shadows any trivial increases in "inflation" as we now mistakenly measure it. As Peter Drucker kept saying, our accounting systems are pathetically out of date....

Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/36867-us-savings-rate-based-on-outdated-methods-of-calculation?source=feed#comment-87383 87383
Bruce Merrifield]]> Thu, 31 May 2007 11:13:16 -0400
Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/36434-u-s-large-caps-continue-to-trail-their-small-cap-peers?source=feed#comment-86904 86904
Small businesses with less than 100 empoyees not only create new jobs, but are the innovators that create new wealth. (About 95% of all household American wealth has been generated since 1982...now about $65 trillion, up from $3 trillion in 1982). It's no wonder that your data reflect this disparity, which is much more pervasive than is generally realizes....or can be measured by our current Government data, which largely come from about 150,000 big businesses.

I wish you would expand on your observations.

Bruce Merrifield]]> Thu, 24 May 2007 09:56:11 -0400
Small businesses with less than 100 empoyees not only create new jobs, but are the innovators that create new wealth. (About 95% of all household American wealth has been generated since 1982...now about $65 trillion, up from $3 trillion in 1982). It's no wonder that your data reflect this disparity, which is much more pervasive than is generally realizes....or can be measured by our current Government data, which largely come from about 150,000 big businesses.

I wish you would expand on your observations.

Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34714-what-is-the-labor-market-telling-us?source=feed#comment-85641 85641
The Household data pick up some of the "invisible" jobs, but those data are not "deemed credible." As a result, the Labor Department has to issue their periodic "Oooops" reports ( a million under count in 2005, and about 600,000 in 2006).

You might want to look into the causes for this historically unprecedented explosion of new businesses and new jobs. They are fascinating...But please be assured that the American Miracle continues unabated, no matter how many General Motors get the headlines.

Bruce Merrifield]]> Mon, 07 May 2007 10:38:23 -0400
The Household data pick up some of the "invisible" jobs, but those data are not "deemed credible." As a result, the Labor Department has to issue their periodic "Oooops" reports ( a million under count in 2005, and about 600,000 in 2006).

You might want to look into the causes for this historically unprecedented explosion of new businesses and new jobs. They are fascinating...But please be assured that the American Miracle continues unabated, no matter how many General Motors get the headlines.

Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34080-personal-consumption-vs-gdp-the-basis-of-our-economy?source=feed#comment-85277 85277
Bruce Merrifield]]> Tue, 01 May 2007 09:59:33 -0400
Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/33872-so-much-for-goldilocks-recessions-are-bad-for-stocks-regardless-of-fed-policy?source=feed#comment-85196 85196
The difference this time, is that the Fed has lost control of money supply in the global marketplace, and this has changed things forever. All they can do is keep interest rates up higher than they should be (cratering the housing market). Fortunately, about 95% of our 28 million incorporated businesses (up from 4.6 million 25 years ago) have less tha 100 employees, but now account for a rising 2/3rds of the U.S. GDP. Only about 5% are publicly traded, so they are largely invisible, but that's where most of the innovation and new job creation is going on...but our antiquated Government data don't see it. This is why Labor has to come up with their monthly "ooops" reports.

As long as you only look at our big businesses, which now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP, you will only see gloom and doom. Fortunately ever since 1982, we have been creating 600,000 to 800,000 new businesses every year, and 94% of all household American wealth. WE also have create some 90 million new jobs, most of them in these new companies... offsetting the loss of about 45 million jobs in downsizing our "big" companies.....European... call it the "American Miracle."

Bruce Merrifield]]> Sun, 29 Apr 2007 14:23:51 -0400
The difference this time, is that the Fed has lost control of money supply in the global marketplace, and this has changed things forever. All they can do is keep interest rates up higher than they should be (cratering the housing market). Fortunately, about 95% of our 28 million incorporated businesses (up from 4.6 million 25 years ago) have less tha 100 employees, but now account for a rising 2/3rds of the U.S. GDP. Only about 5% are publicly traded, so they are largely invisible, but that's where most of the innovation and new job creation is going on...but our antiquated Government data don't see it. This is why Labor has to come up with their monthly "ooops" reports.

As long as you only look at our big businesses, which now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP, you will only see gloom and doom. Fortunately ever since 1982, we have been creating 600,000 to 800,000 new businesses every year, and 94% of all household American wealth. WE also have create some 90 million new jobs, most of them in these new companies... offsetting the loss of about 45 million jobs in downsizing our "big" companies.....European... call it the "American Miracle."

Bruce Merrifield]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/33429-anticipated-gdp-slowdown-blame-it-on-the-weather?source=feed#comment-84910 84910
Bruce]]> Wed, 25 Apr 2007 09:08:42 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32431-recession-expectations-of-distinctly-different-groups?source=feed#comment-84411 84411
Bruce]]> Tue, 17 Apr 2007 11:02:15 -0400
Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32443-inflation-confined-to-rest-of-the-world?source=feed#comment-84408 84408 Bruce]]> Tue, 17 Apr 2007 10:45:57 -0400 Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32300-is-the-fed-s-impact-waning?source=feed#comment-84308 84308
Fortunately, the U.S. has developed a depth and breadth of academic and industrial infrastructure in recent decades, for which history has no precedent, and which no other nation will replicate in any reasonable time. This phenomenon has generated some 25 million new small businesses since 1982, some 90 million new jobs (offsetting 45 million lost by big companies in doewnsizing and restructuring...a net of +45 million jobs)....and about 94% of all household American wealth (now $56 trillion, up from $3 trillion in 1982). Europeans call this the American Miracle, rewultin in an inflow of about $800 trillion in capital last year for investments. The U.S. has been contributing about 30% of the growth in the World Gross Product every Year (46% in 2006).

Basically, the Fed has become increasingly irrelevant in this global marketplace, but retains a psychological hangover, which still scares people. The Emperor has no clothes?

Bruce]]> Sun, 15 Apr 2007 13:16:09 -0400
Fortunately, the U.S. has developed a depth and breadth of academic and industrial infrastructure in recent decades, for which history has no precedent, and which no other nation will replicate in any reasonable time. This phenomenon has generated some 25 million new small businesses since 1982, some 90 million new jobs (offsetting 45 million lost by big companies in doewnsizing and restructuring...a net of +45 million jobs)....and about 94% of all household American wealth (now $56 trillion, up from $3 trillion in 1982). Europeans call this the American Miracle, rewultin in an inflow of about $800 trillion in capital last year for investments. The U.S. has been contributing about 30% of the growth in the World Gross Product every Year (46% in 2006).

Basically, the Fed has become increasingly irrelevant in this global marketplace, but retains a psychological hangover, which still scares people. The Emperor has no clothes?

Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32161-an-historical-look-at-bear-market-contractions?source=feed#comment-84201 84201
Only about 5% of these small businesses are publicly traded, and tend to be pretty invisible, but this also is where much of the innovation is occurring, together with the generation of enormous household wealth. (Since 1982, American household wealth has increased about 95% from $3 trillion back then to $56 trillion now, and continuing to rise about $3 trillion each year!)

Unfortunately, as Peter Drucker kept pointing out, our accounting systems are 200 years out of date, and no longer accurately reflect the real economy. Most of our job and other data come from about 8.000 large comapanies, many of which are not growing and may not even be around in 15 years.

Bruce]]> Fri, 13 Apr 2007 09:38:41 -0400
Only about 5% of these small businesses are publicly traded, and tend to be pretty invisible, but this also is where much of the innovation is occurring, together with the generation of enormous household wealth. (Since 1982, American household wealth has increased about 95% from $3 trillion back then to $56 trillion now, and continuing to rise about $3 trillion each year!)

Unfortunately, as Peter Drucker kept pointing out, our accounting systems are 200 years out of date, and no longer accurately reflect the real economy. Most of our job and other data come from about 8.000 large comapanies, many of which are not growing and may not even be around in 15 years.

Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/31975-philly-fed-americans-concerned-about-economy?source=feed#comment-84036 84036
The primary failing in the Government data we produce involves measurement of inflation, which as Peter Drucker kept pointing out is 200 years out of date. When you couple a transistor with a fiber optic cable and a satellite...and create the Internet, the productivity increases are orders of magnitude greater than can be measured by looking at modest price rises in a bunch of commodities "adusted" for perceptions of increased value added (productivity). A less precise but probably much more accurate measure would be the increase in consumer household wealth which since 1982, has increased about 94% from about $3 trillion to an astonishing $56 trillion today. With bad data, the Fed has been running us into unnecessary downturns and recessions for many decades.]]> Wed, 11 Apr 2007 11:45:54 -0400
The primary failing in the Government data we produce involves measurement of inflation, which as Peter Drucker kept pointing out is 200 years out of date. When you couple a transistor with a fiber optic cable and a satellite...and create the Internet, the productivity increases are orders of magnitude greater than can be measured by looking at modest price rises in a bunch of commodities "adusted" for perceptions of increased value added (productivity). A less precise but probably much more accurate measure would be the increase in consumer household wealth which since 1982, has increased about 94% from about $3 trillion to an astonishing $56 trillion today. With bad data, the Fed has been running us into unnecessary downturns and recessions for many decades.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/31847-beware-of-the-data-underlying-the-economy?source=feed#comment-84033 84033 Bruce]]> Wed, 11 Apr 2007 11:22:37 -0400 Bruce]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/31854-u-s-gdp-growth-to-drop-to-2-3-panel?source=feed#comment-83941 83941
The large percentage of our 8 million new jobs created since mid 2003, were created by these invisible small businesses. (Since 1982, we have been generating 600.000 to 800,000 new small businesses every year...23 million since 1982). Europeans call this the "American Miracle." This is where most of the innovations as well as job creation is occurring, and this also is why the job data are revised upward every month...the "oops reports." As a result, the issues of "the collapse of housing and of sub-prime mortgages" have been so overstated.

Most of the gloom and doom reports tend to see only about 1/3rd of the economy, and therefore, they "understate" the true strength of the economy.]]> Tue, 10 Apr 2007 13:50:21 -0400
The large percentage of our 8 million new jobs created since mid 2003, were created by these invisible small businesses. (Since 1982, we have been generating 600.000 to 800,000 new small businesses every year...23 million since 1982). Europeans call this the "American Miracle." This is where most of the innovations as well as job creation is occurring, and this also is why the job data are revised upward every month...the "oops reports." As a result, the issues of "the collapse of housing and of sub-prime mortgages" have been so overstated.

Most of the gloom and doom reports tend to see only about 1/3rd of the economy, and therefore, they "understate" the true strength of the economy.]]>