Bruce Merrifield

Today's Market Performance

Excellent compilation of data! You paint a much more accurate picture of the real U.S. economy than the media mis-reports. Current jobs data are consistent with about a 2.0% GDP for the second quarter and the first quarter GDP will pobably be bumped up again. (Aftertax corporate profits of 5.6% in the first quarter were the highest ever as is cash in corporate treasuries). Thanks for the real data.,

Bruce

Bill Gross: U.S. Already in Recession

Wishful thinking won't make it happen....

Jobless Claims Not in Recession Territory Yet

The U.S. has about 30 million incorporated businesses (up from 4.6 million in 1982) of which about 98% have less than 100 employees. The payroll data come from large companies which now account for only about 1/3rd of the U.S. GDP. Small business account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. But this is where the new jobs, new innovations and new household wealth are generated ($59 trillion up from $3 trillion in 1982, and up another $3 trillion in 2007) Since 1982, the U.S generated about 90 million new jobs, most of them in these small businesses, while losing about 40 million in downsizing and restructuring a whole bunch of famous corporate names. Our Labor Department data are no longer accurate, and the Europeans call this entrepreneurial revolution the "American Miracle."

International Revenue Story Not Played Out Yet

Thanks foe providing real data...!

Bruce

Earnings Season So Far: 65% Beat Rate

Your contributions always present important and useful content...quite in contrast to so many of the Alpha gloom and doom comments which often exaggerate trivial points with distorted reasoning. Many thanks!

Bruce

Best of Times, Worst of Times

Hi Folks, here is a little more perspective: In 1982, the U.S. had 4.6 million incorporated businesses....now we have about 30 million, of which about 98% have fewer than 100 employees, but account for a rising two thirds of the U.S. GDP. Big companies now account for a declining one third of the GDP, but "Payroll Data" come mostly from big companies, comprising about 1% of the total. Payroll Data are misleading. Most of the jobs are created by small businesses, of which some 500,000 to 800,000 new ones incorporate every year (about 25 million since 1982) Europeans call this the "American Miracle."

In 1982, the U.S. had about 100 million jobs...now we have about 150 million jobs...averaging about 2 million per year, and we are on track to generate at least that many again this year. The loss of
4,000 jobs last month in big companies? Where is the perspective?

Bruce

Nonfarm Payrolls Trending Up or Down Depending Who You Ask

Our BLS (and DOC) data are parthetically out of touch with the real U.S. economy.

In 1982, the U.S. had 100 million jobs. Now we have 150 million jobs, an annual increase of about 2 million per year (166,000 per month on average), over this 25 year period. Also, in 1982 we had 4.6 incorporated businesses. Now we have about 30 million, and every year we generate 500,000 to 800,000 new ones. Europeans call this "The American Miracle"....it is unique in history.

Moreover, over 95% of our 30 million incorporated businesses have less than 100 employees, but these businesses now account for a rising 2/3rds of the GDP. Only about 5% of those small businesses are publicly traded, so are largely invisible. Unfortunately, our BLS Payroll data mostly come from about 1500 publicly traded large businsses. (Big businesses now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP). Asa result, most of the innovation, new jobs and new wealth are being created by new businesses (this is our competitive advantage in a hyper competitive global marketplace).

In 1982, household American wealth was about $3 trillion. Now it is $56 trillion (up 95%), and is rising another $3 trillion every year. Household savings when properly calculated to include all investments in IRA's 401K's. money market funds, home equity etc., are $5.3 trillion, instead of zero as currently reported.

It would be nice if our Government metrics could one day catch up with the historically unprecedented real facts, in this most remarkable period in economic history....

Bruce Merrifield

U.S. Large Caps Continue To Trail Their Small Cap Peers

This is an excellent insight, and probably only the tip of the iceberg. Wenow have some 29 million incorporated U.S. businesses (up from 4.6 million in 1982). About 27 million of these (1) have less tha 100 employees (2) account for a rising 65% of the GDP, but (3) have only about 5% that are publicly traded...so are largely invisible. This is where most of the jobs are created (since 1982 90 million jobs have been created, but we lost 45 million in downsizing and restructuring our 1.5 million large businesses...netting out at +45 million. (The American Miracle).

Small businesses with less than 100 empoyees not only create new jobs, but are the innovators that create new wealth. (About 95% of all household American wealth has been generated since 1982...now about $65 trillion, up from $3 trillion in 1982). It's no wonder that your data reflect this disparity, which is much more pervasive than is generally realizes....or can be measured by our current Government data, which largely come from about 150,000 big businesses.

I wish you would expand on your observations.

Bruce Merrifield

So Much for Goldilocks: Recessions Are Bad For Stocks, Regardless of Fed Policy

Michael, For 50 years we have had a Fed-orhestrated 4 year boom and bust cycle. The Fed "perceives" inflation, and then knee-jerk raises interest rates while simultaneously shutting down the money supply. A year later, the economy tanks and a year after that, inflation subsides. (It's a 2 year process). Then, when the Fed belatedly reverses (reduces interest rates and increases money supply) a year later the economy recovers, and a year aftter that, inflation falls.

The difference this time, is that the Fed has lost control of money supply in the global marketplace, and this has changed things forever. All they can do is keep interest rates up higher than they should be (cratering the housing market). Fortunately, about 95% of our 28 million incorporated businesses (up from 4.6 million 25 years ago) have less tha 100 employees, but now account for a rising 2/3rds of the U.S. GDP. Only about 5% are publicly traded, so they are largely invisible, but that's where most of the innovation and new job creation is going on...but our antiquated Government data don't see it. This is why Labor has to come up with their monthly "ooops" reports.

As long as you only look at our big businesses, which now account for a declining 1/3rd of the GDP, you will only see gloom and doom. Fortunately ever since 1982, we have been creating 600,000 to 800,000 new businesses every year, and 94% of all household American wealth. WE also have create some 90 million new jobs, most of them in these new companies... offsetting the loss of about 45 million jobs in downsizing our "big" companies.....European... call it the "American Miracle."

Bruce Merrifield