scott146

Merrill Lynch's Jesper Koll, "Japan is Back, For Real This Time"

I agree with Koll's forecast of an increase in economic growth for Japan, but I feel this will be due to increased spending on healthcare for the aging population.

I don't feel that Japanese corporations will be able to borrow at extreme low rates going forward. I feel that the Ministry of Finance is reaching its limit in being able to issue notes and bonds at the extreme low rates that we see now. The passage of post office reform will allow individual Japanese savers to shift their investments out of JGB's into higher yielding assets such as US treasuries and corporate debt.

The export industries that Japan has been heavily reliant on now have significant global overcapacity. Steel and consumer electronics are not growth industries for Japan in my view.

I don't see where a big jump in productivity is going to come from given the aging of the workforce.