scott146

Can Japan's Newest Real Estate Boom Be Sustained?

Interesting information...perhaps in the short term there is room for gains in Japan's real estate markets, but when one looks at the demographic situation in Japan the long term outlook for Japan's real estate market is strongly negative. Some researchers are projecting a 21% decline in the population of Japan between 2006 and 2050. That means less need for housing, and less need for commercial real estate to contain businesses that serve the consumer market. I have posted a worst case scenario for Japan's economy through 2050 titled "Japan and the fertility trap-a worst case scenario?" here...

BoJ to Maintain Accommodative Policy; Watching Real Estate Prices

Any price gains in Japanese residential real estate will be short-term; as population projections through 2050 have Japan's population shrinking 23% due to an aging population and low birthrates.

As The Carry Trade Unwinds: Potential Effects Abroad

My thought on why the yen that the BoJ "that has promptly left the shores of Japan" is exiting Japan is because domestic investors don't see any worthwhile investments in Japan. Many domestic industries in Japan have onerous regulations which inhibit innovation and the motivation to try to improve efficiencies. The research group PRB.org's latest population projections for Japan show that country's population decreasing significantly in the next 25 to 50 years due to a birthrate below fertility levels and and aging population. Finally, I think that the export industries that are successful are likely to be fully priced as far as their share prices are concerned.

The Carry Trade: Perpetuation Or Collapse

Interesting ideas about the senior citizen Japanese savers. However, if the BoJ takes your advice the rise in the yen would damage the profits of the Japanese export sector. Since historically the BoJ has favored the export sector I don't see them pursuing the policy that you suggest.