Crude Inventories Report: The More People Watch It, The Less Useful It Becomes [View article]
This phenomenon is a confirmation of the efficient markets hypothesis as the trading value of this information has gone to zero as the amount of attention paid to the data increased.
Although this information is now useless as a trading indicator, it does tell us that crude prices have become disconnected from US inventories. According to the EIA's data, crude inventories have been at the top of their historical range for more than a year...so the price of crude reflects future event risk more than it does current supply concerns.
Oil and Gas Drilling: The Price is Right But The Industry's in Trouble [View article]
A logical explanation for lack of investment in exploration by oil majors lies in the idea that 80% of the world is controlled by state oil companies and is, therefore, unavailable for competitive investment and drilling. Since future oil finds are likely to be controlled by state companies, oil majors could reasonably either return capital to shareholders through dividends, or alternatively focusing on refining; purchasing crude at market prices and relying on the crack spread for profits.
Crude Inventories Report: The More People Watch It, The Less Useful It Becomes [View article]
Although this information is now useless as a trading indicator, it does tell us that crude prices have become disconnected from US inventories. According to the EIA's data, crude inventories have been at the top of their historical range for more than a year...so the price of crude reflects future event risk more than it does current supply concerns.
Oil and Gas Drilling: The Price is Right But The Industry's in Trouble [View article]
Oil Trading Volume Surge: Desperation Of The Roaches [View article]
Oil's Slippery Slope: Why Crude and Oil Stocks May Be Headed Down, Fast [View article]
Scott