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PEMINC

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  • Ucore Rare Metals: Clear Path To Production And Definitive Financing Source Make This A 'Strong Buy' [View article]
    Holt: I interpret the discount rate as a WACC. The article suggests that AIDEA could come at 5-6%, although the author assumes 7%. Also, if I got it right, the D/E is presumed to be about 0.66. Backing-out from the 12% WACC, I get about 27% - 30% Ke. That is reasonable to me. It suggests strong value creation as this project is de-risked, goes into production, and the Ke declines.
    Jul 8 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gilead Is My Next Apple [View article]
    Long GILD getting close to 2 years. I got in after learning about a clinical study for drug 7977, as it was known back then. Still agree with the investment thesis, and believe price could/should break above $100 per share within 2 quarters, and the even higher price talk on this post could bear fruit.

    However, my concern is price action surrounding competitive market entrants towards the year end or new year. The margins are high, the competitors' drug development costs need to be recovered, and there is significant room for price compression. Does someone out there have industry insight into how the competition (ABBV and MRK) are likely to price vs GILD? I presume they will buy market share with lower price, but how much lower?

    I also note that GILD is expected to come out with a combination pill of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir (for more HEP C genotypes) towards the end of the year. And I understand that MRK's pill is effective against all genotypes except type 3. Insight on the relative strengths of the pills expected in the market is appreciated.
    Jul 1 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ucore Rare Metals: Clear Path To Production And Definitive Financing Source Make This A 'Strong Buy' [View article]
    Nice work, well done. I presume DCF is cash flow to the firm (and discount rate is a WACC). Care to qualitatively comment on what 20 year mine life does to NPV? Also, curious what is the reference date for the DCF, and what year you presume production starts? Thanks.
    Jul 1 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Ucore Rare Metals' CEO Jim McKenzie [View article]
    Thanks. The HH connection helps make sense of the noise.
    Jun 29 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Ucore Rare Metals' CEO Jim McKenzie [View article]
    This is so dreadfully put together, it deserves no comment.
    Its not serious.
    Feels like the silliness at the Stockhouse bull board.
    Jun 27 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovaldi And Drug Pricing: The United States Of Saps [View article]
    A lot of chest thumping going on here. Politics aside, is GILD pricing (and EPS) threatened by some competition later (early) this (next) year? Isn't that what is causing recent price action? Agree that next earnings results should be good, but that seems "duh". So, why not more mojo on the tape?
    Jun 19 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Ucore Rare Metals' CEO Jim McKenzie [View article]
    Mike: I take your point that stockpiling creates much less value than using them asap downstream. From a national (regional) economic perspective, it would be great if US (or North American) companies were to put the REE metals to use in the value chain, with the associated knock-on multiplier economic effects. And perhaps Alaska will do its part to cultivate that. However, from the Company's perspective, they just need competitive interest in their off-takes.
    Jun 17 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Ucore Rare Metals' CEO Jim McKenzie [View article]
    Mike: Good questions. You are evidently aware of issues in the industry. My view on items 4 and 5, is that good process engineering would overcome a good portion of the issues you are addressing. It seems likely that Ucore will need a bright metallurgist and/or chemical engineer to manage the recovery process. Importing talent with a visa (from say Lynas) is always a possibility. What I presume will also be required is good computer process control engineering and a few good technicians (can be trained or supervised). The cost infrastructure should be manageable.

    As for oxidation of REEs, which would apply more to stockpilers than producers, usually immersing easily-oxidized metals (e.g. sodium) in an inert or oily environment is a reasonable technical solution, and/or the skin of the metal may develop an oxidized layer.
    Jun 16 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoCellular Plans To Move ICT-107 Forward Into Phase III Trials Based On New Sub-Group Analysis Presented At ASCO [View article]
    Mr. Smith: Thank you for this. It helps. Given your work, can you give a view on what is a reasonable range for the fraction of GBM patients that could benefit from ICT-107 once it jumps through all the regulatory hurdles? I realize there could be several assumptions, and caveats, built in to your response, if you choose to pick up that gauntlet, but that would help as one of the inputs to valuation. You have already opined on time to approval and cost of study. Thanks very much.
    Jun 4 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An 11.1% Current Yield And Upside Potential For Your Income Portfolio [View article]
    And now they have some a revolving line from Key Bank. Seems like this is a positive. Will this help MILL move the needle?
    Jun 3 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking Value In The Refining Sector [View article]
    Thank you.
    Jun 2 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unlocking Value In The Refining Sector [View article]
    Thanks for a good read, Mr. Husband.

    In your view, does the premium for CLMT suggest that its over priced?

    I am curious what types of discount rates you apply to get your NPVs, and do you capture future or maint capex?

    As an aside, in my experience, the DCF methodology is valid for many valuations, but MLPs seem to be a tad different. Historically, when I last looked, their valuations were uniformly higher than C-corp peers. I understand that to be due to their predominantly retail investor base, and how they value the distributions. So much of the value is tied to that distribution, that people analyze the distribution coverage (much like a fixed income instrument), and if the distribution is on the fence then people sell. That was the case with CLMT, although it now seems to be in recovery mode. My basic point is that the market applies different valuation criteria or discount rates for MLPs. And also I scratch my head about CLMT being ready for prime time.
    May 30 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abbott: A Worthwhile Investment [View article]
    Since Jan 2, 2013 Humira belongs to Abbvie.
    May 28 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Bearish On Celgene The Stock, Not The Company [View article]
    There is always trading and sector risks, but all things considered this is a pretty solid large cap growth play. Not too many of these puppies out there. Myself, I try to look past technical indicators, being more of a fundamentalist, and see why things trade in any pattern. I perceive the price action reflecting a wave of money moving into Biotech, which did gangbusters, and then people moved on. But I believe good opportunities remain in the sector and their growth will draw attention and trading activity again. This is an investment more than a trade.
    May 23 12:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung aims to be a player in biotech [View news story]
    Its chest thumping and grandiose. Yeah, OK, every company aspires to be tops, and the Koreans have made major inroads in cars and phones. But its really a message for rah-rah internal glad handing. Taken at face value, its stunningly naive - at least for biosimilars that are sold in regulated markets in the West.
    May 13 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
109 Comments
62 Likes