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  • Seadrill Ltd: When Will The Pain End? [View article]
    25% of the company's backlog is predicated on an extremely tenuous relationship w/ an egomaniacal Russian tyrant and you two (Casey and PV) don't even think it's an issue? Wow!

    The sanctions are not going away any time soon. Putin looks like preparing to take a bite out of a couple other "neighbors", in fact.
    Oct 1 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd: When Will The Pain End? [View article]
    No, your point seems to be that only people who are long the stock can participate in a discussion about it. What's the value in that?
    Oct 1 01:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: But What If The Rosneft Contract Is Executed? [View article]
    I think one has to assume the Rosneft deal is going to be scrapped. Putin hasn't even yet whetted his expansionist druthers. More sanctions and more isolation of Russia is definitely in the offing. Even the Europeans/Obama will be unable to ignore completely the new Russian aggressions.

    Given that backdrop, things don't look that rosy for NADL going forward. Something like half of their fleet (Venture, Phoenix, Rigel and Navigator) comes up in 2015 needing new contracts w/out anything but Rosneft to back them up. This happens as soon as January (Navigator). That's a lot of uncontracted rigs in a very short time in an oversupplied market.
    Sep 26 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Impact Of Debt Covenants On The Amount Of Debt Seadrill Can Carry [View article]
    But isn't the point that SDRL is going to act in such a way as to avoid trying to negotiate a debt waiver w/ its lenders. And since the covenants will influence the behavior of the company in this way, aren't they relevant?
    Sep 24 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: A Few Things To Remember About The Rosneft Deal [View article]
    I believe you are correct. West Rigel is owned by NADL, not SDRL, and they have already paid $114MM (20% of the yard price). The other 80% is due on delivery. At least, this is according 2Q 2012 report and press release April 2012 announcing the ordering of the rig.

    BTW, Casey, I don't know that they've announced the ordering of the 2 new harsh environment Jack-ups (not drillships) yet, so it may be premature to halt construction on them.

    Finally, in regard to risk, I count 4 of 8 rigs in need of contracts in 2015. The first one as early as January. That is, assuming the sanctions against Russia are in effect and the deal w/ Rosneft falls through.
    Sep 24 02:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Grand Canyon Education's Outlook Mixed After Decent Quarter [View article]
    Very good and in-depth article. Thanks.
    Aug 22 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    It wouldn't be that hard to do. All you would have to do is look at the current fleet status reports of all the companies and see how many rigs are unutilized. But to suggest, for instance, that SDRL's utilization is 65% is ridiculous. It's well above 90%, w/ only one rig warm-stacked currently.

    When you dialogue w/ others, you give the impression that you didn't even know that SDRL has only rig unused. NADL does not have any rigs stacked. They are all being used. Every one of them. The same is true for ORIG, PACD, and VTG.
    Aug 19 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    Same goes w/ SDRL and NADL and I expect all the companies listed. SDRL and NADL have real "utilization" rates in the 90+% area. The article is totally misleading in suggesting a utilization rate of 65%. For some weird reason, they include nb's that are still under construction as unutilized, when, in fact, they are not even utilizable yet. SDRL has only one rig warm-stacked and that's it.
    Aug 19 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Offshore Drillers Will Struggle Over The Next Few Years [View article]
    They sell a percentage of a relatively small number of dropdowns and at a huge markup to cost when the assets have lucrative long-term contracts in place. They continue to receive excellent cash flow from these assets through dividends and receive cash from the sales to help fund their nb program. So, no, they are actually BUYING more assets, in effect, not selling them. Essentially, they are monetizing the value of the contracts attached to the assets and using it to fund their nb program, not dividends, as you surmise.

    It's such a stupid idea that other companies have now begun to try to copy them.
    Aug 19 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: North Atlantic Drilling's Agreement With Rosneft Should Not Be Materially Impacted By Latest US Sanctions, But Headline Risk Remains [View article]

    You may recall that the initial round of negotiations w/ the Russians was cancelled b/c the Russians wanted to screw the minority shareholders (us). I believe a press release was issued at the time, and it was in the quarterly report (going by memory). In addition, Tor referred to it in the recent cc (I can't recall if it was SDRL or NADL cc).

    Hope it helps.
    Jul 18 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Impact Of The West Jupiter Contract On Seadrill's Cash Flows [View article]

    You don't know what ur talking about. West Tellus was announced stacked for at least 6 months by troim in the CC. Get your facts straight.
    Jul 3 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weakness In For-Profit Education Makes Grand Canyon Education Available At A Bargain [View article]
    I enjoyed this article. One thing: price appreciation from 44 to 60 is a 36% return, not 24%. The Christian identity angle also sets them apart from other for-profits. They obviously take their Christianity seriously at GCU and this attracts a lot of parents who want to send their children to the school. That is the reason they can brag about having so many feeder schools that are all about sending kids to GCU. The management also seems to have integrity which is probably also related to their Christianity and which, in turn, means they are into creating a great school. Motivated believers try hard and put something of themselves into their product.

    Can you comment on the current review at GCU?
    Jun 12 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Services Group: A Solid Compressor Rental Business And Positive Catalysts For 2H 2014 [View article]
    Loved this article. In contrast to what an earlier poster said about management not rewarding shareholders, I have been a shareholder off and on for quite a while and have been richly rewarded by price appreciations as have all investors. Considering the crushing cyclical bear market for the underlying commodity over the past 5 years, it's hard to imagine a performance superior to the one we have enjoyed is possible.
    Jun 6 10:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Resolves Tax Dispute With Norwegian Authorities, Here's What We Know [View article]
    i'm surprised powerhedge who is usually very astute wasn't aware of this.
    Jun 4 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Resolves Tax Dispute With Norwegian Authorities, Here's What We Know [View article]
    I knew NADL had put this Svalbard tax issue to bed:

    2013 20-F, page 52

    Uncertain Tax Position

    At December 31, 2012, we had a liability for an uncertain tax position of $142 million related to the move of legal entities to a new tax jurisdiction and the use of the U.S. dollar as the functional currency for tax reporting purposes, and an asset of $79 million related to an indemnity which Seadrill had given to us for any associated tax claims exceeding $63 million which is discussed in further detail in Note 6 to our audited consolidated financial statements, included herein. On June 28, 2013, we sold to Seadrill all of the shares of Seadrill Norge Holding AS and Seadrill Norge AS, our wholly-owned subsidiaries, which were counterparties to the tax dispute. As such, our provision for uncertain tax positions was reduced to $0 million at December 31, 2013.
    Jun 4 02:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment