Mr. Cynical

A Rotting Market Stinks from the Head

10 year Japanese bond yielded .44% in the 90's. Rational to the charts or not, you are going to be waiting a long time for that trade to come in.

Banks deleveraging process necessarily creates demand for Treasuries. How far are we through that ballgame? Also, the fed is going to buy long term treasuries to push down yield curve. Finally, we are going to lose another million jobs in the next four months.

That doesn't sound like Treasuries tanking to me. Good luck with your trade.

Fun with Government Bonds

He's right but this trade is way too early. The quantitative easing by the Fed will flatten the yield curve and keep long term rates low for some time.

In fact, they will push rates lower so that everybody can re-fi at 5% or less.

This is like, what, the zillionth long double-short treasuries article on Seeking Alpha in the last 2 weeks? Sheesh. Leave this one to the monkeys and go call Obama and tell him to start the great derivative unwind on 1/20.

Is It Time to Short Bonds?

Foolish to short treasuries. Fed has basically said it is going to manipulate long term rates by buying treasuries for their balance sheet.

Everyone knows the fundamentals of US gov't are horrible right now, so this seems like a smart play. Because of this, however, on top of the fed buying treasuries, ultimately the gov't will step in and disallow shorting treasuries to avoid the same fate as Lehman and (almost) Citi (shorted to death).

Good luck with your trade. Hopefully you can sleep at night knowing you are betting against America.