Ex15:26

50 Comments

    • ON: Sun Aug 17th 16:19 PM
      Commented on:
      Priceline Guarantees Sunshine, Gets Conversion
      So you didn't call to confirm your reservation before you left?

      It stinks that PCLN and the hotel didn't get their communication synced, but why would you ever, ever, ever think that you should book a flight, hotel, or rental, without confirming a day or two in advance? I'm not sure what kind of traveler you are, but I am a freak about ensuring that all details are confirmed and re-confirmed so I don't have to endure the trauma you faced.

      I'd give PCLN another chance (maybe here in the states first), but always confirm via phone before you start your trip. Why risk it?
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    • ON: Wed Jul 9th 23:36 PM
      Commented on:
      Sell and Short Recommendations for a Bearish Market
      Tom,
      Thanks for the update.

      The difference between sharksm and me is that I made more money than I can spend over the last 4 months and it took him 40 years --- and that he only goes long and I only short and buy puts.

      Bigpete --- GM can go to zero so there's $10 left to go.... I imagine that it will actually go to $5 and some arrogant hero private equity firm will sign up to get their teeth kicked in for the next 10 years till they learn that unions, healthcare, and future pension liabilities are not profitable for any business model.... including ones that make products that no one wants and are completely useless in an environment of $80+ barrells of oil. The airlines are similar.

      In fact, I don't think these guys actually read the article, they simply became indignant that you said you shorted things. Watch out, Dick Fuld and Jamie Dimon may be next posting that your on the watch list!

      Keep it up.

      EX
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    • ON: Fri Jul 4th 17:19 PM
      Commented on:
      Crystal River’s Q2 Write-Downs Could Bankrupt the Company
      Jazz -
      I don't have a vested interest in this stock or options so take it for what it is worth. I'm glad to see that you have put $ on the table and it looks like Greg has too. The beauty about markets is that we won't have to wait long and we'll find out who did some great analysis or got lucky, or both.

      1) CMBS or ABX indicies manipulation -
      Please, if anything these indicies are too conservative in their valuations and don't reflect real values at all. Why do you think LEH, UBS, MER, and others continue to tell us that "WE'RE ALL DONE WRITING THINGS DOWN" - yet continue to write down assets..... in the case of the ABX - those are significantly impaired and in the case of CMBS - just wait a few months and those will really come off as office lease rates and rent rolls begin to fall.

      2) Your comments remind me of the guys that owned TMA right before it was blowing up. You suggest that the REPO debt wouldn't or couldn't be subject to being pulled..... wake up!!! IB folks, banks, and other liquidity providers are pulling lines all over the place. Just look at the PENN National Deal (there were many reasons why it didn't go, but one was that funding appearing to be backing out). Why hasn't there been a high yield issuance in Europe this year? CREDIT IT TIGHT and banks don't want to give it to potentially risky counterparties.
      As I mentioned, I don't have a dog in this fight, but it sounds like you are way, way too defensive for someone that only has a 500 share stake. I will predict that the CMBS market rolls over (with or without manipulation of the CMBS indicies) and your 500 shares won't buy you a cup of coffee in 12 to 18 months.

      Best of luck.
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    • ON: Wed Jul 2nd 23:09 PM
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook
      Tell our peace loving brothers in the middle east to tell their soverign wealth funds to stop going long oil (and our pension funds too)....
      "We don't have a queue!".... No, you don't need one when you can bid up the px and drive it higher.
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    • ON: Sun Jun 22nd 16:27 PM
      Commented on:
      The Hindenburg Omen: Crash Signal In Play
      To the poster that said, "Governments can't control gold", I would beg to differ. I would suggest that governments are the biggest owners of gold and that would lend to more control and ability to manipulate prices right?
      What would happen if the China dumped all its gold on the market in one day? By by $900 an oz, that's for sure.
      Take the H.O or leave it. I'd like to have a list of all confirmed previous H.Omens please.
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    • ON: Sat Jun 21st 11:23 AM
      Commented on:
      Is Regions Financial Due for a Bounce?
      Gaucho!!! Exactly!
      Management may be upbeat, but that's just because they were able to sell their remaining personal shares as the stock ticked up for once!

      I'm kidding, I think the theme I keep hearing from folks is that "it's overdone and there are values out there".
      Yes, they are probably correct, however you must be able to trust the companies and what they are saying.
      In the case of some of the larger banks, management doesn't even know what is in their portfolios and so how could they even know what guidance to give.
      I bet banks like STI that gave guidance that their loan losses were in line with expectations and the dividend is safe.... will regret that.
      The turnaround is contingent on a turnaround in the real estate market and overall economy. Both are not happening now.
      As the consumer gets tighter and tighter we're going to see homeowners with 2nd liens and HELOCs walk, I can guarantee that these are not priced in.
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    • ON: Sat Jun 21st 11:08 AM
      Commented on:
      'The Time to Buy Financials' Is Still Not Now
      Tim,
      Yes, you seem like a thoughtful value investor....
      However, buying financials and these regional banks now is tough. You may catch a rally if you get lucky, however you will probably suffer much more just because so many bad stories with other players are still coming out.
      Your recommendation of CTBK is a perfect example. It may be a great bank, however if you owned it Monday, you are now 20-30% down from there.
      The argument that these stocks are great b/c they pay a great dividend is a tempting one, until they are so impaired that they have to cut that dividend. In the meantime, you've suffered entirely too much carnage and will get further punished when they announce the dividend cut.
      I think the financial play will be a great one, I just don't have to call the bottom, I'd rather miss 5% of the longer term 300% or 400% rally over the next several years, to confirm a rally and preserve capital.
      I'm not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, just more conservative in watching trends.
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    • ON: Fri Jun 20th 01:33 AM
      Commented on:
      Going Double Long on Agriculture with DAG
      Also consider LSO or COW
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    • ON: Fri Jun 20th 01:32 AM
      Commented on:
      Going Double Long on Agriculture with DAG
      Why not just do call options on DBA? If you want more uhmpp, you'll get it
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    • ON: Thu Jun 19th 00:01 AM
      Commented on:
      RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?
      Ok, I have to ask....
      What's your motive Grace? Why would you post for SA? You do this probably because it is your source of revenue or your passion, or both.

      This guy may be talking his own book or may be genuinely warning his clients to get the heck out. I would suggest that it takes more guts to take a stand like this and warn your clients than sit in the office and cross your fingers and write a commentary that states that the US is not in an official recession. I for one disregard everything my firm's economist writes because it's as bullish as Abby Joseph Cohen in February of 2000. How refreshing that someone would come out and try to scare the wits out of everyone. If his boys make a few bucks who cares, GS trades against their clients and the street thinks that is a great thing!

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    • ON: Mon Jun 2nd 23:26 PM
      Commented on:
      .Me: Apple's Missing Link
      So do we short AAPL?
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    • ON: Mon Jun 2nd 23:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Cal-Maine Foods: Eggs in One Basket
      I'm in the camp of the other posters. I think this is a great intro to a company we've seen and heard a bunch about, mainly the short interest.
      Clearly, there are 3 things that must receive more attention and deeper analysis to even begin looking into this -
      1) Pricing action - is the whole world short this thing, why, and what catalyst will cause that short interest to go away.
      2) Feed costs - you mention it, but what details regarding their feed costs and their ability to either hedge this or inability to plan for this can make for good or lousey future performance.
      3) Finally, since they are the #1 producer of eggs how do they drive pricing with their purchasers. Do they have pricing power? What have been egg prices and where do we see them going.

      Like I said, good intro, I just wouldn't put a dime into it without knowing this info. Also, I've seen a lot of really smart investors use the dividend as a reason to buy and sit in a loser with the justification that hey "I'm getting a dividend". At the end of the day, all you get is a loser with a dividend - ask BAC investors.
      By the way, the yield gets better as you continue to get crushed!

      Thanks for the info, I appreciate it and will put it on my list of homework assignments.
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    • ON: Fri May 30th 00:14 AM
      Commented on:
      Sinopec: Potential for Growth
      Randy, thanks for your effort and great article.

      I don't own any energy stocks, but frankly am looking at them as potential short candidates for a temporary drop in oil px. (not saying this is one, just researching).

      Coming from a long perspective though, you mentioned above that SNP doesn't make money unless oil is less than $76 and in fact, they got a capital infusion from PRC to offset losses. Unless your view is that oil will come down, does it make sense to own SNP?

      In pricing action today, SNP moved up $5 - in your opinion is this a result of the falling price of oil (-4%).

      Further, I'm just speculating here, but they actually might be a lone firm out there in the energy space that actually increases with oil decreases? Could actually be some kind of pair trade...?



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    • ON: Tue May 27th 01:12 AM
      Commented on:
      Digging Deeper Into Lehman
      Reggie,
      I always love reading your work. Thank you for your time and efforts.
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    • ON: Sun May 25th 10:57 AM
      Commented on:
      Lehman Selloff Accelerates
      Ummmm...
      As Helicopter Ben, Jamie Dimon, the LEH CEO, MER CEO, and GS CEO told us, we're in the late innings of the credit crunch and there's nothing to see here, "move along".
      I appreciate their straightforward approach to diluting their shareholders and assuring us that it's all great.
      While Einhorn maybe exiting in the 3rd quarter, I'm guessing that the last quarter might still be a good one for the visitors (shorts). I personally will sell 60% of my puts on Lehman after the open and will be playing with the houses money after that.

      As far as an options strategy, does anyone have any ideas.... I thought about writing some June 30 puts, yes this will limit further upside, but will help me if there is a rally from here after I sell the bulk of my position. Any other thoughts?
      EX
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