Ex15:26's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/150142/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/101924-my-take-on-this-very-risky-market?source=feed#comment-291154 291154 I'm not sure if you shared anything new here. I would caution you though that your assumption that all life policies should be scrapped is poorly reasoned. I would agree with anyone that there are a tremendous amount of bad insurance companies that sell permanent insurance, however if the policy is a whole life policy it is the one investment that is build to survive your 8% failure scenario (assuming your insurance company has excellent financial strength).
I personally own 2 whole life policies, one with Northwestern Mutual and one with Guardian. Both continue to perform and neither possess anything but less thatn 1/2% of their surplus in either MBS or asset-backed securities. Of all the companies out ther these policies are the last assets that I would sell. In fact my agents and I constructed our plan with these types of scenarios in mind.
Would I suggest have more than 10% or 15% of my networth in permanent insurance? No way! Do you and my financial advisor wish that you would have had a significant amount of your cash in a policy like Northwestern that has actually returned a 5.8% return (net of all expenses - this is not the dividend rate, but the actual Cash RoR over the last 20 years with AAA credit risk)? The answer is "YES! you wish you owned it!"
If you plan on making blanket comments, at least make a concession in your generalization that two companies have outperformed and continue to do so.
While I've latched on to something very specific at the end of your document I take these comments very personally, because quite frankly the permanent insurance policies I own have outperformed most of the indicies for the 1, 3, & 5 years periods easily! By the way, did I mentioned that they are paid up policies now and therefore I own the death benefit and my cash value continues to grow without any premium payments. In other-words, my cash value continues to increase year after year and I pay nothing. My "investment will get better and better with little uncertainty. Perhaps you should mention these two great companies to your advisors so they might actually help their clients rather than guide them to destroy the one asset they may have in their portfolio that might be working. Again, I concede that most companies don't produce - that is why I am blessed that I listened to my Northwestern and Guardian agents!

Cheers.
Ex15:26 ]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 22:25:50 -0400 I'm not sure if you shared anything new here. I would caution you though that your assumption that all life policies should be scrapped is poorly reasoned. I would agree with anyone that there are a tremendous amount of bad insurance companies that sell permanent insurance, however if the policy is a whole life policy it is the one investment that is build to survive your 8% failure scenario (assuming your insurance company has excellent financial strength).
I personally own 2 whole life policies, one with Northwestern Mutual and one with Guardian. Both continue to perform and neither possess anything but less thatn 1/2% of their surplus in either MBS or asset-backed securities. Of all the companies out ther these policies are the last assets that I would sell. In fact my agents and I constructed our plan with these types of scenarios in mind.
Would I suggest have more than 10% or 15% of my networth in permanent insurance? No way! Do you and my financial advisor wish that you would have had a significant amount of your cash in a policy like Northwestern that has actually returned a 5.8% return (net of all expenses - this is not the dividend rate, but the actual Cash RoR over the last 20 years with AAA credit risk)? The answer is "YES! you wish you owned it!"
If you plan on making blanket comments, at least make a concession in your generalization that two companies have outperformed and continue to do so.
While I've latched on to something very specific at the end of your document I take these comments very personally, because quite frankly the permanent insurance policies I own have outperformed most of the indicies for the 1, 3, & 5 years periods easily! By the way, did I mentioned that they are paid up policies now and therefore I own the death benefit and my cash value continues to grow without any premium payments. In other-words, my cash value continues to increase year after year and I pay nothing. My "investment will get better and better with little uncertainty. Perhaps you should mention these two great companies to your advisors so they might actually help their clients rather than guide them to destroy the one asset they may have in their portfolio that might be working. Again, I concede that most companies don't produce - that is why I am blessed that I listened to my Northwestern and Guardian agents!

Cheers.
Ex15:26 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90379-priceline-guarantees-sunshine-gets-conversion?source=feed#comment-232557 232557
It stinks that PCLN and the hotel didn't get their communication synced, but why would you ever, ever, ever think that you should book a flight, hotel, or rental, without confirming a day or two in advance? I'm not sure what kind of traveler you are, but I am a freak about ensuring that all details are confirmed and re-confirmed so I don't have to endure the trauma you faced.

I'd give PCLN another chance (maybe here in the states first), but always confirm via phone before you start your trip. Why risk it?]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 16:19:32 -0400
It stinks that PCLN and the hotel didn't get their communication synced, but why would you ever, ever, ever think that you should book a flight, hotel, or rental, without confirming a day or two in advance? I'm not sure what kind of traveler you are, but I am a freak about ensuring that all details are confirmed and re-confirmed so I don't have to endure the trauma you faced.

I'd give PCLN another chance (maybe here in the states first), but always confirm via phone before you start your trip. Why risk it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84191-sell-and-short-recommendations-for-a-bearish-market?source=feed#comment-201960 201960 Thanks for the update.

The difference between sharksm and me is that I made more money than I can spend over the last 4 months and it took him 40 years --- and that he only goes long and I only short and buy puts.

Bigpete --- GM can go to zero so there's $10 left to go.... I imagine that it will actually go to $5 and some arrogant hero private equity firm will sign up to get their teeth kicked in for the next 10 years till they learn that unions, healthcare, and future pension liabilities are not profitable for any business model.... including ones that make products that no one wants and are completely useless in an environment of $80+ barrells of oil. The airlines are similar.

In fact, I don't think these guys actually read the article, they simply became indignant that you said you shorted things. Watch out, Dick Fuld and Jamie Dimon may be next posting that your on the watch list!

Keep it up.

EX]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:36:38 -0400 Thanks for the update.

The difference between sharksm and me is that I made more money than I can spend over the last 4 months and it took him 40 years --- and that he only goes long and I only short and buy puts.

Bigpete --- GM can go to zero so there's $10 left to go.... I imagine that it will actually go to $5 and some arrogant hero private equity firm will sign up to get their teeth kicked in for the next 10 years till they learn that unions, healthcare, and future pension liabilities are not profitable for any business model.... including ones that make products that no one wants and are completely useless in an environment of $80+ barrells of oil. The airlines are similar.

In fact, I don't think these guys actually read the article, they simply became indignant that you said you shorted things. Watch out, Dick Fuld and Jamie Dimon may be next posting that your on the watch list!

Keep it up.

EX]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83770-crystal-rivers-q2-write-downs-could-bankrupt-the-company?source=feed#comment-198689 198689 I don't have a vested interest in this stock or options so take it for what it is worth. I'm glad to see that you have put $ on the table and it looks like Greg has too. The beauty about markets is that we won't have to wait long and we'll find out who did some great analysis or got lucky, or both.

1) CMBS or ABX indicies manipulation -
Please, if anything these indicies are too conservative in their valuations and don't reflect real values at all. Why do you think LEH, UBS, MER, and others continue to tell us that "WE'RE ALL DONE WRITING THINGS DOWN" - yet continue to write down assets..... in the case of the ABX - those are significantly impaired and in the case of CMBS - just wait a few months and those will really come off as office lease rates and rent rolls begin to fall.

2) Your comments remind me of the guys that owned TMA right before it was blowing up. You suggest that the REPO debt wouldn't or couldn't be subject to being pulled..... wake up!!! IB folks, banks, and other liquidity providers are pulling lines all over the place. Just look at the PENN National Deal (there were many reasons why it didn't go, but one was that funding appearing to be backing out). Why hasn't there been a high yield issuance in Europe this year? CREDIT IT TIGHT and banks don't want to give it to potentially risky counterparties.
As I mentioned, I don't have a dog in this fight, but it sounds like you are way, way too defensive for someone that only has a 500 share stake. I will predict that the CMBS market rolls over (with or without manipulation of the CMBS indicies) and your 500 shares won't buy you a cup of coffee in 12 to 18 months.

Best of luck.
]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 17:19:47 -0400 I don't have a vested interest in this stock or options so take it for what it is worth. I'm glad to see that you have put $ on the table and it looks like Greg has too. The beauty about markets is that we won't have to wait long and we'll find out who did some great analysis or got lucky, or both.

1) CMBS or ABX indicies manipulation -
Please, if anything these indicies are too conservative in their valuations and don't reflect real values at all. Why do you think LEH, UBS, MER, and others continue to tell us that "WE'RE ALL DONE WRITING THINGS DOWN" - yet continue to write down assets..... in the case of the ABX - those are significantly impaired and in the case of CMBS - just wait a few months and those will really come off as office lease rates and rent rolls begin to fall.

2) Your comments remind me of the guys that owned TMA right before it was blowing up. You suggest that the REPO debt wouldn't or couldn't be subject to being pulled..... wake up!!! IB folks, banks, and other liquidity providers are pulling lines all over the place. Just look at the PENN National Deal (there were many reasons why it didn't go, but one was that funding appearing to be backing out). Why hasn't there been a high yield issuance in Europe this year? CREDIT IT TIGHT and banks don't want to give it to potentially risky counterparties.
As I mentioned, I don't have a dog in this fight, but it sounds like you are way, way too defensive for someone that only has a 500 share stake. I will predict that the CMBS market rolls over (with or without manipulation of the CMBS indicies) and your 500 shares won't buy you a cup of coffee in 12 to 18 months.

Best of luck.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83563-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-197642 197642 "We don't have a queue!".... No, you don't need one when you can bid up the px and drive it higher.
]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:09:41 -0400 "We don't have a queue!".... No, you don't need one when you can bid up the px and drive it higher.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82172-the-hindenburg-omen-crash-signal-in-play?source=feed#comment-190371 190371 What would happen if the China dumped all its gold on the market in one day? By by $900 an oz, that's for sure.
Take the H.O or leave it. I'd like to have a list of all confirmed previous H.Omens please.]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:27:05 -0400 What would happen if the China dumped all its gold on the market in one day? By by $900 an oz, that's for sure.
Take the H.O or leave it. I'd like to have a list of all confirmed previous H.Omens please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81930-is-regions-financial-due-for-a-bounce?source=feed#comment-189702 189702 Management may be upbeat, but that's just because they were able to sell their remaining personal shares as the stock ticked up for once!

I'm kidding, I think the theme I keep hearing from folks is that "it's overdone and there are values out there".
Yes, they are probably correct, however you must be able to trust the companies and what they are saying.
In the case of some of the larger banks, management doesn't even know what is in their portfolios and so how could they even know what guidance to give.
I bet banks like STI that gave guidance that their loan losses were in line with expectations and the dividend is safe.... will regret that.
The turnaround is contingent on a turnaround in the real estate market and overall economy. Both are not happening now.
As the consumer gets tighter and tighter we're going to see homeowners with 2nd liens and HELOCs walk, I can guarantee that these are not priced in.
]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 11:23:01 -0400 Management may be upbeat, but that's just because they were able to sell their remaining personal shares as the stock ticked up for once!

I'm kidding, I think the theme I keep hearing from folks is that "it's overdone and there are values out there".
Yes, they are probably correct, however you must be able to trust the companies and what they are saying.
In the case of some of the larger banks, management doesn't even know what is in their portfolios and so how could they even know what guidance to give.
I bet banks like STI that gave guidance that their loan losses were in line with expectations and the dividend is safe.... will regret that.
The turnaround is contingent on a turnaround in the real estate market and overall economy. Both are not happening now.
As the consumer gets tighter and tighter we're going to see homeowners with 2nd liens and HELOCs walk, I can guarantee that these are not priced in.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82141-the-time-to-buy-financials-is-still-not-now?source=feed#comment-189692 189692 Yes, you seem like a thoughtful value investor....
However, buying financials and these regional banks now is tough. You may catch a rally if you get lucky, however you will probably suffer much more just because so many bad stories with other players are still coming out.
Your recommendation of CTBK is a perfect example. It may be a great bank, however if you owned it Monday, you are now 20-30% down from there.
The argument that these stocks are great b/c they pay a great dividend is a tempting one, until they are so impaired that they have to cut that dividend. In the meantime, you've suffered entirely too much carnage and will get further punished when they announce the dividend cut.
I think the financial play will be a great one, I just don't have to call the bottom, I'd rather miss 5% of the longer term 300% or 400% rally over the next several years, to confirm a rally and preserve capital.
I'm not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, just more conservative in watching trends.]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 11:08:20 -0400 Yes, you seem like a thoughtful value investor....
However, buying financials and these regional banks now is tough. You may catch a rally if you get lucky, however you will probably suffer much more just because so many bad stories with other players are still coming out.
Your recommendation of CTBK is a perfect example. It may be a great bank, however if you owned it Monday, you are now 20-30% down from there.
The argument that these stocks are great b/c they pay a great dividend is a tempting one, until they are so impaired that they have to cut that dividend. In the meantime, you've suffered entirely too much carnage and will get further punished when they announce the dividend cut.
I think the financial play will be a great one, I just don't have to call the bottom, I'd rather miss 5% of the longer term 300% or 400% rally over the next several years, to confirm a rally and preserve capital.
I'm not perfect by any stretch of the imagination, just more conservative in watching trends.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81877-going-double-long-on-agriculture-with-dag?source=feed#comment-188893 188893 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:33:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81877-going-double-long-on-agriculture-with-dag?source=feed#comment-188892 188892 Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:32:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81838-rbs-predicts-global-market-crash-what-s-in-it-for-them?source=feed#comment-188152 188152 What's your motive Grace? Why would you post for SA? You do this probably because it is your source of revenue or your passion, or both.

This guy may be talking his own book or may be genuinely warning his clients to get the heck out. I would suggest that it takes more guts to take a stand like this and warn your clients than sit in the office and cross your fingers and write a commentary that states that the US is not in an official recession. I for one disregard everything my firm's economist writes because it's as bullish as Abby Joseph Cohen in February of 2000. How refreshing that someone would come out and try to scare the wits out of everyone. If his boys make a few bucks who cares, GS trades against their clients and the street thinks that is a great thing!

]]> Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:01:23 -0400 What's your motive Grace? Why would you post for SA? You do this probably because it is your source of revenue or your passion, or both.

This guy may be talking his own book or may be genuinely warning his clients to get the heck out. I would suggest that it takes more guts to take a stand like this and warn your clients than sit in the office and cross your fingers and write a commentary that states that the US is not in an official recession. I for one disregard everything my firm's economist writes because it's as bullish as Abby Joseph Cohen in February of 2000. How refreshing that someone would come out and try to scare the wits out of everyone. If his boys make a few bucks who cares, GS trades against their clients and the street thinks that is a great thing!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79741-me-apple-s-missing-link?source=feed#comment-178315 178315 ]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 23:26:54 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79737-cal-maine-foods-eggs-in-one-basket?source=feed#comment-178312 178312 Clearly, there are 3 things that must receive more attention and deeper analysis to even begin looking into this -
1) Pricing action - is the whole world short this thing, why, and what catalyst will cause that short interest to go away.
2) Feed costs - you mention it, but what details regarding their feed costs and their ability to either hedge this or inability to plan for this can make for good or lousey future performance.
3) Finally, since they are the #1 producer of eggs how do they drive pricing with their purchasers. Do they have pricing power? What have been egg prices and where do we see them going.

Like I said, good intro, I just wouldn't put a dime into it without knowing this info. Also, I've seen a lot of really smart investors use the dividend as a reason to buy and sit in a loser with the justification that hey "I'm getting a dividend". At the end of the day, all you get is a loser with a dividend - ask BAC investors.
By the way, the yield gets better as you continue to get crushed!

Thanks for the info, I appreciate it and will put it on my list of homework assignments.]]> Mon, 02 Jun 2008 23:15:59 -0400 Clearly, there are 3 things that must receive more attention and deeper analysis to even begin looking into this -
1) Pricing action - is the whole world short this thing, why, and what catalyst will cause that short interest to go away.
2) Feed costs - you mention it, but what details regarding their feed costs and their ability to either hedge this or inability to plan for this can make for good or lousey future performance.
3) Finally, since they are the #1 producer of eggs how do they drive pricing with their purchasers. Do they have pricing power? What have been egg prices and where do we see them going.

Like I said, good intro, I just wouldn't put a dime into it without knowing this info. Also, I've seen a lot of really smart investors use the dividend as a reason to buy and sit in a loser with the justification that hey "I'm getting a dividend". At the end of the day, all you get is a loser with a dividend - ask BAC investors.
By the way, the yield gets better as you continue to get crushed!

Thanks for the info, I appreciate it and will put it on my list of homework assignments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78856-sinopec-potential-for-growth?source=feed#comment-176462 176462
I don't own any energy stocks, but frankly am looking at them as potential short candidates for a temporary drop in oil px. (not saying this is one, just researching).

Coming from a long perspective though, you mentioned above that SNP doesn't make money unless oil is less than $76 and in fact, they got a capital infusion from PRC to offset losses. Unless your view is that oil will come down, does it make sense to own SNP?

In pricing action today, SNP moved up $5 - in your opinion is this a result of the falling price of oil (-4%).

Further, I'm just speculating here, but they actually might be a lone firm out there in the energy space that actually increases with oil decreases? Could actually be some kind of pair trade...?



]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 00:14:06 -0400
I don't own any energy stocks, but frankly am looking at them as potential short candidates for a temporary drop in oil px. (not saying this is one, just researching).

Coming from a long perspective though, you mentioned above that SNP doesn't make money unless oil is less than $76 and in fact, they got a capital infusion from PRC to offset losses. Unless your view is that oil will come down, does it make sense to own SNP?

In pricing action today, SNP moved up $5 - in your opinion is this a result of the falling price of oil (-4%).

Further, I'm just speculating here, but they actually might be a lone firm out there in the energy space that actually increases with oil decreases? Could actually be some kind of pair trade...?



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78846-digging-deeper-into-lehman?source=feed#comment-174279 174279 I always love reading your work. Thank you for your time and efforts.
]]> Tue, 27 May 2008 01:12:57 -0400 I always love reading your work. Thank you for your time and efforts.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77312-1990-all-over-again?source=feed#comment-167799 167799 Wed, 14 May 2008 22:52:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77312-1990-all-over-again?source=feed#comment-167732 167732 They characterized Noah the way you characterize folks that have a glass half full view of our economy. Just because they aren't nuts like GWB suggesting that the economy is getting better doesn't mean that they are proclaiming the end of the world. Why not make money when everything else is losing value (real estate, banks, equities) and everything else is costing a lot more (groceries and fuel)----oh, I'm sorry, enery didn't go up any when seasonally adjusted by the great folks in the government..... right, gas is up 100% Y-O-Y yet inflation is up only modestly at .2%.

Get short, you might be happier.]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 20:38:08 -0400 They characterized Noah the way you characterize folks that have a glass half full view of our economy. Just because they aren't nuts like GWB suggesting that the economy is getting better doesn't mean that they are proclaiming the end of the world. Why not make money when everything else is losing value (real estate, banks, equities) and everything else is costing a lot more (groceries and fuel)----oh, I'm sorry, enery didn't go up any when seasonally adjusted by the great folks in the government..... right, gas is up 100% Y-O-Y yet inflation is up only modestly at .2%.

Get short, you might be happier.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76230-three-short-ideas-standard-pacific-under-armour-and-trump-entertainment?source=feed#comment-165535 165535 EX]]> Sat, 10 May 2008 14:53:53 -0400 EX]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73535-pacific-capital-bancorp-immune-to-the-housing-crisis-or-in-denial?source=feed#comment-155522 155522
I meant that my word is so important, and I'm sure that the homebuilder is a stand up guy, but if he can't sell homes, he can't pay the debt on the land - even if he wanted to.

And frankly, that is what we are beginning to see from the consumer that simply walks out on the house. He is so overwhelmed and other home values around him are so depressed that even though he wants to stick in it, it would kill him to do so.

I'm sure that if there are a number of personal bankruptcies and foreclosures in these neighborhoods that the builder put up, it will further weigh on pricing and the ability to move inventory. I wonder if that is in their model?

]]> Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:18:01 -0400
I meant that my word is so important, and I'm sure that the homebuilder is a stand up guy, but if he can't sell homes, he can't pay the debt on the land - even if he wanted to.

And frankly, that is what we are beginning to see from the consumer that simply walks out on the house. He is so overwhelmed and other home values around him are so depressed that even though he wants to stick in it, it would kill him to do so.

I'm sure that if there are a number of personal bankruptcies and foreclosures in these neighborhoods that the builder put up, it will further weigh on pricing and the ability to move inventory. I wonder if that is in their model?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73535-pacific-capital-bancorp-immune-to-the-housing-crisis-or-in-denial?source=feed#comment-155519 155519 I love the reference to the 30 year relationship.... while integrity is everything to me and my word and reputation is critical in my business, it won't help pay the bills if no one is buying.

Thanks,
Put stops on everything. ]]> Wed, 23 Apr 2008 17:13:58 -0400 I love the reference to the 30 year relationship.... while integrity is everything to me and my word and reputation is critical in my business, it won't help pay the bills if no one is buying.

Thanks,
Put stops on everything. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73187-friday-s-rally-just-a-short-squeeze?source=feed#comment-154431 154431 While I have been confounded by the performance of the banks, I am thankful for their new position which allows me to actually enter trades. SKF at 105 is a lot more comfortable than SKF at $142.

Grace, I'm not buying the short squeeze notion - Friday's volume was just average, I think everyone didn't want to sell and frankly didn't know what to do.

As far as the goldilocks economy coming back that Steve and High Tech seem to envision, let's remember the destruction of capital and bank assets, the dilution of s/o equity that everyone is so excited about, the rolling over housing, condo, and now commerical real estate markets, and I noticed that you didn't mention the jobless claims (which will be revised downward again!). Did I say anything about soaring food costs, riots overseas, and that black gold (oil), and gas prices? Those probably won't impact the consumer one bit nor usher in that non-reccession that we're not in. Why don't you buy JCP on that strong retail sales number?

To summarize, sell the rally boys and buy those puts. It's not for the faint of heart, but sure better than losing your shirt as we go to 11,600.

]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:58:54 -0400 While I have been confounded by the performance of the banks, I am thankful for their new position which allows me to actually enter trades. SKF at 105 is a lot more comfortable than SKF at $142.

Grace, I'm not buying the short squeeze notion - Friday's volume was just average, I think everyone didn't want to sell and frankly didn't know what to do.

As far as the goldilocks economy coming back that Steve and High Tech seem to envision, let's remember the destruction of capital and bank assets, the dilution of s/o equity that everyone is so excited about, the rolling over housing, condo, and now commerical real estate markets, and I noticed that you didn't mention the jobless claims (which will be revised downward again!). Did I say anything about soaring food costs, riots overseas, and that black gold (oil), and gas prices? Those probably won't impact the consumer one bit nor usher in that non-reccession that we're not in. Why don't you buy JCP on that strong retail sales number?

To summarize, sell the rally boys and buy those puts. It's not for the faint of heart, but sure better than losing your shirt as we go to 11,600.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72084-lehman-creative-financing-rides-again?source=feed#comment-150419 150419
If Lehman retains the first loss piece of this garbage, that means that the holder of Freedom has counterparty risk to LEH right? So, buyer of Freedom steps up and buys CDS insurance on LEH.
Fast forward a month or two and LEH goes into a rumored solvency crisis...... the FED has no choice now but continue chasing its tail trying to and protect LEH by allowing for more toxic swaps. On the other hand, if LEH goes down (it won't be permitted to) then Freedom buyer now holds garbage without anyone taking the first loss position (ok, yes, he's in line with all other creditors). Sure he's got CDS protection from someone on LEH, but are they good for it?
What if Freedom buyer levers up this stuff because it is AAA and then LEH goes down? Suddenly margin calls will be made and hedgefund buyer must sell at any price to get out of the trade.
Again, IF EVERYTHING GOES GREAT, EVERYTHING WILL GO GREAT! Unfortunately, we don't know where the next problem will come from, we can just be pretty certain they'll be another problem that will impact others.

Sound familiar? Oh yeah, it's the same song, second verse.
The CRA (Credit rating agencies) are so brutal and complicit in this! Everyone in this mess is simply grasping at straws hoping that everyone will go along with the party.
Herb, I enjoy your stuff because you actually question the bull that is being shoveled around.]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 11:38:55 -0400
If Lehman retains the first loss piece of this garbage, that means that the holder of Freedom has counterparty risk to LEH right? So, buyer of Freedom steps up and buys CDS insurance on LEH.
Fast forward a month or two and LEH goes into a rumored solvency crisis...... the FED has no choice now but continue chasing its tail trying to and protect LEH by allowing for more toxic swaps. On the other hand, if LEH goes down (it won't be permitted to) then Freedom buyer now holds garbage without anyone taking the first loss position (ok, yes, he's in line with all other creditors). Sure he's got CDS protection from someone on LEH, but are they good for it?
What if Freedom buyer levers up this stuff because it is AAA and then LEH goes down? Suddenly margin calls will be made and hedgefund buyer must sell at any price to get out of the trade.
Again, IF EVERYTHING GOES GREAT, EVERYTHING WILL GO GREAT! Unfortunately, we don't know where the next problem will come from, we can just be pretty certain they'll be another problem that will impact others.

Sound familiar? Oh yeah, it's the same song, second verse.
The CRA (Credit rating agencies) are so brutal and complicit in this! Everyone in this mess is simply grasping at straws hoping that everyone will go along with the party.
Herb, I enjoy your stuff because you actually question the bull that is being shoveled around.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72124-after-ge-s-miss-whos-next?source=feed#comment-150120 150120 I would be very careful making the statement that because they write these down, the stock goes down. What did we see the other day with the UBS disclosure? They wrote down $19 Billion and rallied! I am still short LEH, but I will tell you these rallies on bad news have tested my resolve and nerve. I am glad that I have a written trading plan for my positions that state why I'm in the trade and what is my threshold for loss, just so I don't lose my nerve.

]]> Sun, 13 Apr 2008 22:59:52 -0400 I would be very careful making the statement that because they write these down, the stock goes down. What did we see the other day with the UBS disclosure? They wrote down $19 Billion and rallied! I am still short LEH, but I will tell you these rallies on bad news have tested my resolve and nerve. I am glad that I have a written trading plan for my positions that state why I'm in the trade and what is my threshold for loss, just so I don't lose my nerve.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72002-getting-ready-for-apple-s-q2-earnings?source=feed#comment-150109 150109 I don't think this has any bearing on earnings, but clearly the AAPL model to contract only with AT&T prevents me from purchasing the Iphone. If it was with Verizon or Sprint, I'd probably buy one, if I could have a couple of raving fans.
]]> Sun, 13 Apr 2008 22:40:50 -0400 I don't think this has any bearing on earnings, but clearly the AAPL model to contract only with AT&T prevents me from purchasing the Iphone. If it was with Verizon or Sprint, I'd probably buy one, if I could have a couple of raving fans.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71994-customer-omega-for-the-airlines?source=feed#comment-149624 149624 Sat, 12 Apr 2008 23:32:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72002-getting-ready-for-apple-s-q2-earnings?source=feed#comment-149516 149516 For really aggressive folks, buying puts might be the thing to do as any statement by management to reduce expectations will be met with severe punishment. The $115 to $120 area looks like a very solid as support. Clearly that's a 20% drop from these levels, but it wouldn't be out of the range of expectations if they actually miss.
I like the company long term and am kicking myself for not buying at the $115 level a couple of weeks ago.
Good luck and use stops!]]> Sat, 12 Apr 2008 14:39:36 -0400 For really aggressive folks, buying puts might be the thing to do as any statement by management to reduce expectations will be met with severe punishment. The $115 to $120 area looks like a very solid as support. Clearly that's a 20% drop from these levels, but it wouldn't be out of the range of expectations if they actually miss.
I like the company long term and am kicking myself for not buying at the $115 level a couple of weeks ago.
Good luck and use stops!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71852-hedging-against-my-portfolio-with-ultrashort-basic-materials?source=feed#comment-149175 149175 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:36:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71994-customer-omega-for-the-airlines?source=feed#comment-149173 149173 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:34:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70154-shorting-china-and-financials-money-left-on-the-table-a-cautionary-tale?source=feed#comment-133895 133895
I think it is a good exercise to examine the chart on SKF to see where you think support might be, but I wouldn't use it the same way I would for a stand alone equity, because everything is really story driven and you are basically take a stab at where you think financials will go and then holding on.

Use stops!
Blessings.
]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:37:53 -0400
I think it is a good exercise to examine the chart on SKF to see where you think support might be, but I wouldn't use it the same way I would for a stand alone equity, because everything is really story driven and you are basically take a stab at where you think financials will go and then holding on.

Use stops!
Blessings.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70425-lehman-man-bites-dog-latest?source=feed#comment-133890 133890 I am assuming that you're posting this "tounge-in-cheekishly"...
Of course if not, I agree with your point that those darn Japanese brokers are probably responsible for the entire credit crisis and the housing slump too. While we're at it, why not blame this whole recession that we're not officially in on them as well.
I am convinced my LEH puts are even better.... unless of course Uncle Ben comes in an nationalizes them at $50 a share, then, it might hurt me a bit.]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:27:45 -0400 I am assuming that you're posting this "tounge-in-cheekishly"...
Of course if not, I agree with your point that those darn Japanese brokers are probably responsible for the entire credit crisis and the housing slump too. While we're at it, why not blame this whole recession that we're not officially in on them as well.
I am convinced my LEH puts are even better.... unless of course Uncle Ben comes in an nationalizes them at $50 a share, then, it might hurt me a bit.]]>