Ex15:26

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    • Sun May 25th 10:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman Selloff Accelerates
      Ummmm...
      As Helicopter Ben, Jamie Dimon, the LEH CEO, MER CEO, and GS CEO told us, we're in the late innings of the credit crunch and there's nothing to see here, "move along".
      I appreciate their straightforward approach to diluting their shareholders and assuring us that it's all great.
      While Einhorn maybe exiting in the 3rd quarter, I'm guessing that the last quarter might still be a good one for the visitors (shorts). I personally will sell 60% of my puts on Lehman after the open and will be playing with the houses money after that.

      As far as an options strategy, does anyone have any ideas.... I thought about writing some June 30 puts, yes this will limit further upside, but will help me if there is a rally from here after I sell the bulk of my position. Any other thoughts?
      EX
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    • Wed May 14th 22:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      1990 All Over Again?
      Hey, I'm not saying that in 6 months we might have a rebound, I'm just going to make a bunch more money than the shepeople and the CNBC crowd that think every day, month, or 1/2 year is going parabolic up.
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    • Wed May 14th 20:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      1990 All Over Again?
      H-Bomb,
      They characterized Noah the way you characterize folks that have a glass half full view of our economy. Just because they aren't nuts like GWB suggesting that the economy is getting better doesn't mean that they are proclaiming the end of the world. Why not make money when everything else is losing value (real estate, banks, equities) and everything else is costing a lot more (groceries and fuel)----oh, I'm sorry, enery didn't go up any when seasonally adjusted by the great folks in the government..... right, gas is up 100% Y-O-Y yet inflation is up only modestly at .2%.

      Get short, you might be happier.
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    • Sat May 10th 14:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment
      Good call on SPF. Wish I had seen this article before to spur me on to look more deeply and research the company. I'll keep it on a watch list and well as begin evaluation of UA.
      EX
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 17:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pacific Capital Bancorp: Immune to the Housing Crisis - or in Denial?
      As a clarification - I didn't mean to say that my word is my bond, but if you can't eat oh well......

      I meant that my word is so important, and I'm sure that the homebuilder is a stand up guy, but if he can't sell homes, he can't pay the debt on the land - even if he wanted to.

      And frankly, that is what we are beginning to see from the consumer that simply walks out on the house. He is so overwhelmed and other home values around him are so depressed that even though he wants to stick in it, it would kill him to do so.

      I'm sure that if there are a number of personal bankruptcies and foreclosures in these neighborhoods that the builder put up, it will further weigh on pricing and the ability to move inventory. I wonder if that is in their model?

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    • Wed Apr 23rd 17:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pacific Capital Bancorp: Immune to the Housing Crisis - or in Denial?
      Good stuff as a start for my research. I appreciate your review and will begin digging in to it. I think all of the regionals will start seeing significant declines in the performance of their loan portfolios. As for all the estimates for asset write downs and their stress testing, we'll have to see how good they are at modeling and whether their haircuts were enough.
      I love the reference to the 30 year relationship.... while integrity is everything to me and my word and reputation is critical in my business, it won't help pay the bills if no one is buying.

      Thanks,
      Put stops on everything.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 22:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Rally: Just a Short-Squeeze?
      This is a great discussion, and frankly, I'm excited to actually see some bulls coming out here and arguing their side. It is no wonder that we had a relief rally because everyone, and I mean everyone has been negative --- so much so, I had to turn bullish for a week for MOS earnings and the subsequent run.
      While I have been confounded by the performance of the banks, I am thankful for their new position which allows me to actually enter trades. SKF at 105 is a lot more comfortable than SKF at $142.

      Grace, I'm not buying the short squeeze notion - Friday's volume was just average, I think everyone didn't want to sell and frankly didn't know what to do.

      As far as the goldilocks economy coming back that Steve and High Tech seem to envision, let's remember the destruction of capital and bank assets, the dilution of s/o equity that everyone is so excited about, the rolling over housing, condo, and now commerical real estate markets, and I noticed that you didn't mention the jobless claims (which will be revised downward again!). Did I say anything about soaring food costs, riots overseas, and that black gold (oil), and gas prices? Those probably won't impact the consumer one bit nor usher in that non-reccession that we're not in. Why don't you buy JCP on that strong retail sales number?

      To summarize, sell the rally boys and buy those puts. It's not for the faint of heart, but sure better than losing your shirt as we go to 11,600.

      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 11:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lehman: ‘Creative’ Financing Rides Again
      Ummmm.. Here's the problem with all of the "basic" structuring and engineering.

      If Lehman retains the first loss piece of this garbage, that means that the holder of Freedom has counterparty risk to LEH right? So, buyer of Freedom steps up and buys CDS insurance on LEH.
      Fast forward a month or two and LEH goes into a rumored solvency crisis...... the FED has no choice now but continue chasing its tail trying to and protect LEH by allowing for more toxic swaps. On the other hand, if LEH goes down (it won't be permitted to) then Freedom buyer now holds garbage without anyone taking the first loss position (ok, yes, he's in line with all other creditors). Sure he's got CDS protection from someone on LEH, but are they good for it?
      What if Freedom buyer levers up this stuff because it is AAA and then LEH goes down? Suddenly margin calls will be made and hedgefund buyer must sell at any price to get out of the trade.
      Again, IF EVERYTHING GOES GREAT, EVERYTHING WILL GO GREAT! Unfortunately, we don't know where the next problem will come from, we can just be pretty certain they'll be another problem that will impact others.

      Sound familiar? Oh yeah, it's the same song, second verse.
      The CRA (Credit rating agencies) are so brutal and complicit in this! Everyone in this mess is simply grasping at straws hoping that everyone will go along with the party.
      Herb, I enjoy your stuff because you actually question the bull that is being shoveled around.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 22:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      After GE's Miss, Who’s Next?
      I think the long-term trend is down as well, but would use caution.
      I would be very careful making the statement that because they write these down, the stock goes down. What did we see the other day with the UBS disclosure? They wrote down $19 Billion and rallied! I am still short LEH, but I will tell you these rallies on bad news have tested my resolve and nerve. I am glad that I have a written trading plan for my positions that state why I'm in the trade and what is my threshold for loss, just so I don't lose my nerve.

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    • Sun Apr 13th 22:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Ready for Apple's Q2 Earnings
      I asked the lady in my elevator on Friday if she liked her Iphone, simply cause I'm in the market for a new phone. Her response actually shocked me.... she hated it. Said it had poor battery life and the numbers and screen shook or were fuzzy. I'm not sure if this is just an isolated incident or if any of you have noted similar comments, but knowing Apple's products I didn't expect this feedback.
      I don't think this has any bearing on earnings, but clearly the AAPL model to contract only with AT&T prevents me from purchasing the Iphone. If it was with Verizon or Sprint, I'd probably buy one, if I could have a couple of raving fans.
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    • Sat Apr 12th 23:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Customer Omega for the Airlines
      So do we go long here? The planes are all fixed right?
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    • Sat Apr 12th 14:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Ready for Apple's Q2 Earnings
      In this environment I think the best way to play earnings is to sit out and look for the pullback, then buy as we enter the stronger 2nd half of the year.
      For really aggressive folks, buying puts might be the thing to do as any statement by management to reduce expectations will be met with severe punishment. The $115 to $120 area looks like a very solid as support. Clearly that's a 20% drop from these levels, but it wouldn't be out of the range of expectations if they actually miss.
      I like the company long term and am kicking myself for not buying at the $115 level a couple of weeks ago.
      Good luck and use stops!
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    • Fri Apr 11th 15:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hedging against My Portfolio with Ultrashort Basic Materials
      The only thing that is holding up are the things you are shorting in this etf.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 11th 15:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Customer Omega for the Airlines
      And I thought the passengers were angry, I never knew the crew could be so nasty. From the back of the plane they seem so nice, I had no idea that they had such bad manners and poor language.
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 31st 00:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Shorting China and Financials: Money Left on the Table - A Cautionary Tale
      While HedgeTruth is correct, intraday, these things do trade directionally in the same direction as the market basket of financials. However, his statements would have us believe that there is some linkage during the middle of the day between the workings of 293 different firms and this ETF in some technical way. If that were the case, ETFs like SLV would trade exactly in lock step percentage moves with the underlying commodity they are trying to represent. Clearly that is not the case and the difference is a result of several things.... and one of them is the supply and demand of folks that want to by these things.

      I think it is a good exercise to examine the chart on SKF to see where you think support might be, but I wouldn't use it the same way I would for a stand alone equity, because everything is really story driven and you are basically take a stab at where you think financials will go and then holding on.

      Use stops!
      Blessings.
      View article »
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