Ex15:26

Friday's Rally: Just a Short-Squeeze?

This is a great discussion, and frankly, I'm excited to actually see some bulls coming out here and arguing their side. It is no wonder that we had a relief rally because everyone, and I mean everyone has been negative --- so much so, I had to turn bullish for a week for MOS earnings and the subsequent run.
While I have been confounded by the performance of the banks, I am thankful for their new position which allows me to actually enter trades. SKF at 105 is a lot more comfortable than SKF at $142.

Grace, I'm not buying the short squeeze notion - Friday's volume was just average, I think everyone didn't want to sell and frankly didn't know what to do.

As far as the goldilocks economy coming back that Steve and High Tech seem to envision, let's remember the destruction of capital and bank assets, the dilution of s/o equity that everyone is so excited about, the rolling over housing, condo, and now commerical real estate markets, and I noticed that you didn't mention the jobless claims (which will be revised downward again!). Did I say anything about soaring food costs, riots overseas, and that black gold (oil), and gas prices? Those probably won't impact the consumer one bit nor usher in that non-reccession that we're not in. Why don't you buy JCP on that strong retail sales number?

To summarize, sell the rally boys and buy those puts. It's not for the faint of heart, but sure better than losing your shirt as we go to 11,600.

After GE's Miss, Who’s Next?

I think the long-term trend is down as well, but would use caution.
I would be very careful making the statement that because they write these down, the stock goes down. What did we see the other day with the UBS disclosure? They wrote down $19 Billion and rallied! I am still short LEH, but I will tell you these rallies on bad news have tested my resolve and nerve. I am glad that I have a written trading plan for my positions that state why I'm in the trade and what is my threshold for loss, just so I don't lose my nerve.

A Sensible and Refreshing Move from the Fed

Tony, that is funny stuff. I just want to know who on the islands wins the immunity idol for this week. Those darn challenges are a killer.

I like Tony's "Odessey"-like approach to posting, but I don't have the time.
Today's more sensible market action shows that someone still isn't buying what the Fed is selling. The news moved the market yesterday (and frankly it hurt my account a bit-but it's not a real loss until it's realized and it was such a nice chance to add), but now everyone has to or say.....
What has changed? -NOTHING- If the FED created another new tool (only $250 B) things must be really really bad.
I believe this is just like other rallies lately, an opportunity for me to unload some of my longer term core holdings and add more SDS, QID, SKF, and DXD.
Be careful and always use stops!